China's stainless steel futures gave back ground sharply in the first trading week after the May Day holiday, as a sudden easing of Middle East tensions deflated the risk premium that had carried prices to recent highs. With the cost-side narrative unwinding and physical demand showing little follow-through, the market is searching for a new floor

SHFE stainless steel futures end the week (April 20-24, 2026) above RMB 15,100/mt as RKAB quota-cut expectations shift the market narrative from macro stimulus to supply-side cost support.

Today, SMM's premiums against the SGE Ag(T+D) were quoted at a range of TD discount of 40-0 yuan/kg, with an average price of -20 yuan/kg. The TD-SHFE contract spot-futures price spread narrowed somewhat today. After downstream enterprises bought on dips yesterday, demand continued to pull back, and market consumption remained sluggish. Shipments of registered brand supplies were relatively limited, downstream enterprises' just-in-time procurement saw limited transactions, and bank floor bids were the mainstream choice. Quotation differences for circulating supplies varied significantly across different brands and regions. In the Shanghai market during the morning session, suppliers of national-standard silver ingots posted mainstream quotations against TD at a discount of 40-0 yuan/kg. The market was dominated by transactions at discounts, with most deals concluded around a TD discount of 20 yuan/kg. Major smelter silver ingots saw a small volume of transactions at parity, while some low-priced supplies in the Shenzhen area were offered at relatively low levels.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,052.5/mt, weakened to $2,042.5/mt during the Asian session, then rebounded to around $2,060/mt and fluctuated. Entering the European session, it was pushed up by long position additions, touching a high of $2,063.5/mt, before returning to fluctuations towards the session close, finally settling at $2,060/mt, up $7/mt or 0.34%. The KDJ lines converged, forming a small bullish candlestick. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 17,375 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a low of 17,330 yuan/mt early in the session, it bottomed out and fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 17,475 yuan/mt, then fluctuated considerably between 17,410 and 17,470 yuan/mt, finally settling at 17,435 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt or 0.43%. It formed a small bullish candlestick. On the macro front: US CPI growth remained stable in December, while core CPI was slightly below expectations. Trump praised the inflation data, saying Powell should cut interest rates significantly. Fed mouthpiece: The December CPI is unlikely to change the current wait-and-see stance. LME copper inventories fell 22% to a six-month low. The US eased restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chip exports to China. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the transaction fee standards and trading limits for lithium carbonate futures related contracts. The MIIT held the 18th manufacturing enterprise symposium, focusing on stabilizing effective investment in manufacturing and consciously resisting involution. : SHFE lead fluctuated downward. Suppliers sold cargoes following the market. Warrant cargo quotations against the SHFE contract were basically stable compared to the previous day, while quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from the production site decreased. Mainstream origin quotations were at discounts of 30-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-factory. Mainstream spot order quotations for refined lead with tax were at discounts of 250-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-factory. Quotations for refined lead without tax ranged from 15,650 to 15,800 yuan/mt, ex-factory. With lead prices edging down, some suppliers, fearing further declines, showed increased willingness to sell. Downstream battery producers' inquiry activity improved, with some purchasing low-priced cargoes in small quantities, but wait-and-see sentiment remained strong. Inventory: On January 14, LME lead inventories decreased by 2,525 mt to 218,925 mt. As of January 12, SMM lead ingot social inventories across five regions showed an upward trend. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Recently, SHFE lead fluctuated downward, leading to a cooling of spot market sentiment. Most primary lead smelters followed the market, generally lowering their selling quotations; secondary lead enterprises, with strengthened bearish expectations, widened their discount margins. Supply side, a large smelter in east China plans to resume production this weekend, which is expected to gradually release lead ingot capacity; meanwhile, after the SHFE lead delivery concludes, a considerable amount of delivered lead ingots is expected to flow into social warehouses. The combination of these factors is likely to lead to a further accumulation of social inventory for lead ingots. Against the backdrop of no significant improvement in current consumption, market supply pressure is increasing, and there is a high risk that lead prices will remain under pressure in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

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