During the 2026 Labour Day holiday (May 1–5), the Chinese SHFE market was closed, and LME copper exhibited a fluctuating trend of initial decline followed by recovery......

[Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Continued, SHFE and LME Prices Fluctuated Upward] At the beginning of the week, boosted by optimistic sentiment over the easing of earlier geopolitical tensions, LME zinc edged up. Subsequently, as expectations for U.S.-Iran peace talks wavered and the Strait of Hormuz faced renewed restrictions, market concerns intensified, and LME zinc struggled to rise and continued to pull back.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,680 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly rose to a high of 23,685 yuan/mt, after which bears added to their positions and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward all the way, hitting a low of 23,440 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed down at 23,455 yuan/mt, down 275 yuan/mt, or 1.16%. Trading volume fell to 39,416 lots, and open interest increased by 10,738 lots to 91,209 lots.

SMM Nickel November 24 News: Macro and Market News: (1) On November 23 local time, US Secretary of State Rubio stated that the talks held between the US and Ukraine in Geneva, Switzerland that day were the most productive and meaningful meeting the two sides have held so far. It is reported that the US and Ukraine made significant progress in the talks regarding "plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict" and discussed a foundational document, but have not yet reached an agreement on how to ensure Kyiv's security. (2) The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that it will not release the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, citing an inability to retrospectively collect data that could not be gathered during the government shutdown. The agency indicated it can obtain most non-survey data for the month and will publish October's figures in the November CPI report "where possible." The November CPI report is now scheduled for release on December 18. Spot Market: On November 24, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 115,400-120,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 117,750 yuan/mt, up 1,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,200-4,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 4,350 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was 0-500 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2601) fluctuated higher in the morning session, stabilizing at the 115,000 yuan/mt level. By the midday close, it was reported at 115,910 yuan/mt, up 0.98%. Nickel prices temporarily gained technical support after consecutive declines, with both the LME and SHFE markets seeing a rebound. Short-term expectations for nickel prices point to fluctuations, while long-term pressure remains. The price range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 114,000-118,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Powell Clearly Stated That Another December Interest Rate Cut Is "Not Set in Stone," Tin Prices May Maintain a Fluctuating Trend in the Short Term] On the midday of October 30, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract showed a fluctuating downward trend, with prices hovering around 285,000 yuan/mt by the midday close.

In the first half of 2025, copper prices in the three markets (COMEX, LME, and SHFE) exhibited a wave-like upward trend. After a sharp drop in early April, strong buying interest continued to drive copper prices higher in a wave-like pattern.

[SMM Analysis] In H1, uncertainties in trade policies from a macro perspective, particularly the expected US tariffs, became a key force stirring the market. Meanwhile, the divergence in the global economy and the trend of the US dollar also provided support for copper prices. On the fundamental side, global copper ore supply was tight, and copper concentrate TCs declined. Domestically, demand was strong initially but weakened later, while overseas demand showed a divergent trend.