Average warrant premiums on August 19 rose $2/mt from the previous trading day, reported at $87/mt (price range $79-95/mt); B/L average premiums rose $2/mt, reported at $82/mt (price range $77-87/mt); EQ copper (CIF B/L) average premiums remained flat, reported at $53/mt (price range $45-61/mt), with offers referencing August-early September arrivals. Recently, the copper price center pulled back, and the import SHFE/LME price ratio continued to recover, but downstream recognition of premiums was limited, demand recovery was moderate, and buying and selling remained in a tug-of-war, resulting in sluggish actual transactions. It was heard today that an offer for EQ copper arriving in late August was at $60/mt, and an offer for EQ copper arriving in September was at $70/mt.

On August 18, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $85/mt (price range $70-100/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $80/mt (price range $75-85/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell by $2/mt from the previous trading day to $53/mt (price range $45-61/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September. Copper prices pulled back today, and the SHFE/LME price ratio recovered somewhat. Meanwhile, the backwardation structure narrowed, but downstream players still stayed on the sidelines; buyers and sellers continued to tug-of-war, and prices for cargoes nearing arrival at port tended to weaken. It was heard today that EQ copper arriving in late August was quoted at $45/mt.

As of July 31, the SHFE zinc front-month contract settled at RMB 24,800/mt, up RMB 190/mt month-on-month, a gain of 0.77%. Zinc prices traded at elevated levels throughout July, dipping to a monthly low of RMB 24,070/mt in early July before peaking at RMB 25,035/mt toward month-end, with prices holding broadly firm at the high end of the range.

[Zinc Ingot Export Window Remained Open; Where Will Zinc Prices Head in August?] In August, zinc concentrate TCs continued to decline MoM. SMM’s domestic zinc concentrate TCs fell to -1,550 yuan/mt Zn, once again setting a new record low. However, supported by profits from by-products such as sulphuric acid and metal-rich materials, coupled with the gradual resumption of production at some smelters following earlier maintenance, SMM expected refined zinc production to increase MoM in August.....

On August 17, the average warrant price fell by $5/mt from the previous trading day to $85/mt (price range $70-100/mt); the average B/L price fell by $5/mt from the previous trading day to $80/mt (price range $75-85/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell by $5/mt from the previous trading day to $55/mt (price range $45-65/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September. The sharp rise in copper prices suppressed downstream demand, and the SHFE/LME price ratio and term structure remained unfavorable, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market; the morning session was very quiet today.

[SHFE/LME zinc price ratio continued to consolidate around 6.8]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio consolidated around 6.8, and the zinc ingot export window opened intermittently. Outside China, the US July PPI unexpectedly came in below expectations, inflationary pressures were fading, and rate hike expectations weakened. Market sentiment improved slightly and US-Iran uncertainty increased. LME zinc inventories continued to destock, capital concentration was relatively high, and LME zinc continued to fluctuate at highs.

On August 14, the average warrant price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $90/mt (price range: $80-100/mt); the average B/L price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $90/mt (price range: $80-90/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day to $60/mt (price range: $56-68/mt), with quotations based on cargoes arriving from August to early September. During the week, the SHFE/LME price ratio remained in loss-making territory, the LME nearby backwardation structure was steep, and the market entered a stage where downstream buying interest was sluggish and upstream sellers were unwilling to dump cargoes at low prices. Divergence between buyers and sellers gradually widened, with thin trading and a wider price range. Today, mainstream quotations for August registered warrants were heard at around $100/mt, and mainstream quotations for EQ copper were heard at around $65/mt.

On the macro front , copper prices rose first and then fell this week, with the price center lifting WoW. US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, significantly weaker than expected; however, CPI fell to 3.4% YoY and core CPI declined to 2.5%, with inflation largely in line with market expectations, easing concerns about inflation exceeding expectations. In addition, the slowdown in US July PPI growth exceeded expectations, and traders reduced bets on a US Fed rate hike in September, with the latest probability at 32%; LME copper bottomed out. Domestically, the People's Bank of China said it would strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, promptly plan and introduce incremental policies, and step up efforts to expand domestic demand, providing some support to market sentiment. Geopolitically, US-Iran negotiations and arrangements for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to swing back and forth, with all parties sending different signals on ceasefire deadlines, safe shipping routes and control of the strait. The situation in the Middle East remained highly uncertain, prompting copper prices to fluctuate at high levels. As of 9:00 a.m. Beijing time on August 14, 2026, LME copper touched a weekly high of $14,262/mt, then fell to a low of $13,955/mt, down $307/mt from the high, a decline of about 2.15%; the most-traded SHFE copper contract touched a low of 107,130 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 108,740 yuan/mt, up 1,610 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 1.50%. Fundamentals side , as of August 13, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell by 2,200 mt from last Monday to 116,700 mt, and total inventories were 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt recorded in the same period last year. Domestic inventories remained at relatively low levels. Supply side, typhoon weather briefly affected cargo flows in east China at the start of the week; as of August 14, open interest in the SHFE copper 2608 contract was 11,615 lots, equivalent to 58,000 mt of metal content; over the same period, registered copper warrants on the SHFE stood at 27,200 mt, and potential deliverable volume was about 2.1 times warrant volume. Open interest in nearby contracts remained significantly higher than current registered warrants; combined with the upcoming delivery, this widened inter-month backwardation and lifted position-rolling costs for suppliers. Suppliers showed greater willingness to sell for cash, boosting spot supply in circulation. Of these, high-quality copper supply remained relatively limited, while non-registered copper supply was ample, and brand differentiation continued. Import side, the nearby LME backwardation structure widened, while the SHFE/LME price ratio for imports weakened; downstream purchase willingness remained low, and actual market deals were sluggish. Demand side, the traditional consumption off-season combined with high copper prices meant downstream users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions showed no significant improvement. For secondary copper, tax-inclusive supply tightened and invoice costs rose; scrap utilization enterprises pushed for lower prices, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stayed high. Looking ahead to next week , on the macro front, US employment data weakened significantly, CPI and PPI pointed to easing inflation pressures, market expectations for a September rate hike continued to decline, and expectations for domestic incremental policy will also continue to support copper prices. If US economic data strengthen again and the US Fed sends further hawkish signals, renewed rate hike expectations and a stronger US dollar will pressure copper prices. Fundamentals side, COMEX inventories continued to increase, while LME inventories and deliverable stocks continued to decline; supply outside the US tightened, supporting LME copper. In China, after delivery of the SHFE copper 2608 contract ends, nearby open interest pressure will ease and the inter-month backwardation will gradually narrow; domestic copper production and imported arrivals will increase, and combined with the consumption off-season and high copper prices, upside room for SHFE copper will be limited. In the short term, fundamentals will dominate the divergence between SHFE and LME, while macro expectations will mainly provide bottom support for copper prices. Overall, LME copper is expected to trade at $13,950-$14,150/mt next week, and the most-traded SHFE copper contract is expected to trade at 107,000-108,500 yuan/mt. Support for LME copper is stronger than for SHFE copper; LME copper is expected to rise, and SHFE copper will follow with modest gains, with LME outperforming SHFE overall.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,071/mt, dipped to a low of $14,066/mt in early trading, then saw its price center drift higher to touch $14,151.5/mt before closing at $14,135.5/mt, up 0.18%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, with open interest at 266,000 lots, up 2,423 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in long positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,930 yuan/mt, initially rose to 107,990 yuan/mt, then saw its price center move straight down to touch a low of 107,660 yuan/mt, and subsequently swung wildly before closing at 107,790 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. Trading volume reached 28,000 lots, with open interest at 206,000 lots, down 3,254 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation.

This week (August 10-August 13), Yangshan copper premium warrant transaction weekly average price range was $91-104/mt (QP August, average $98/mt); B/L transaction weekly average price range was $87-99/mt (QP September, average $93/mt); EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $57-69/mt (QP September, average $63/mt). As of August 13, the exchange-rate-adjusted SHFE/LME copper price ratio for LME copper versus the SHFE copper 2608 contract stood at 1.128, with an import loss of around 1,004.08 yuan/mt, which narrowed by about 381 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, the LME copper August-date backwardation structure widened from the same period last week, with the carry spread between August and September dates at -$117.45/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for ER registered copper B/L are around $85-95/mt; mainstream offers for registered copper warrants are around $100-105/mt; mainstream offers for EQ copper B/L are around $65-70/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums trended weaker, as the SHFE/LME price ratio remained unfavorable, LME nearby contracts showed a steep backwardation structure, and rising copper prices dampened consumption, leaving downstream buying sentiment weak. However, supplier offers had not yet shown a clear retreat, and the divergence between buyers and sellers in the market gradually widened. In addition, according to SMM, the opening of the copper cathode export window in this round was mainly driven by the substantial backwardation structure in nearby LME contracts. Changes in SHFE and LME prices and term structures created export arbitrage conditions for some copper cathode, with export volume currently planned at about 20,000 mt. However, as the August contract approached delivery, copper cathode exports mainly flowed into China bonded zones. According to SMM, as of Thursday this week (August 13), copper inventories in China bonded zones rose by about 4,100 mt WoW from the previous period (August 6) to 35,200 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventories rose by 4,200 mt WoW to 31,100 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventories fell by 100 mt WoW to 4,100 mt. The main reasons for the increase in bonded zone inventories were: 1. The recent opening of the export window created export arbitrage conditions for some copper cathode, causing cargoes to concentrate in bonded zones; 2. Previously, cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses arrived at ports in succession, further lifting inventory levels. Looking ahead, the market will wrestle with whether the SHFE/LME price ratio can recover and with the supply-demand pattern. On the supply side, supply will be shaped by short-term import arrivals and higher exports, while medium- and long-term supply will remain constrained by the US siphoning effect. On the demand side, weak consumption has left downstream buyers with low psychological expectations for transaction prices. Traders are expected to maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers set to grind on. In addition, going forward, as the SHFE and LME term structures are further adjusted, the copper cathode export window and cargo flow directions will still need to be continuously monitored.