On March 18, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained unchanged.

SMM Nickel News, March 18: Macro and Market News: (1) "Fed Chairman whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the US Fed may be more inclined to remain silent this week. But forecasts force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed Chairmen told me they hoped to avoid forecasting interest rate cuts in the near term. Whether current officials will adopt the same stance has become the core focus of this meeting, with both hawks and doves potentially sticking to their positions by pointing to the same shock. (2) US President Trump again expressed his personal dissatisfaction with NATO at the White House on March 17 local time. Trump said whether the US should withdraw from NATO "is indeed something we should consider." Spot Market: On March 18, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued to fluctuate downward during the session and closed the morning session at 135,110 yuan/mt, down 1.49. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Although macro pressure remained significant, the industrial support logic has not changed. The market is still concerned that supply of nickel intermediate products tightens. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

The listing-based trading on the Anhuida platform under the SMM Trading Center has remained active. The platform’s listing hall brings together high-quality supply sources across diverse non-ferrous metal categories, with top-tier enterprises launching bulk lots one after another. Through the efficient integration of self-listing and intelligent matching models with the supply and demand of upstream and downstream players in the industry chain, it has become an important matchmaking channel for spot trading in non-ferrous metals. To date, the platform has attracted a cumulative total of 10,171 registered enterprises, with cumulative transaction value reaching 1.98328 billion yuan and cumulative trading volume totaling 49.5719 million mt. Its trading scale and industry influence have steadily increased. As a concentration- and transparency-driven spot trading segment for non-ferrous metals, the Anhuida platform’s listing hall covers common non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel, as well as new energy and minor metal categories including tin ingot and battery-grade nickel sulphate. It supports enterprises in independently publishing buy and sell intentions and offers multiple trading methods such as direct connection and intelligent matching, enabling buyers and sellers to quickly present their needs and identify counterparties, thereby significantly improving the efficiency of spot trading. Recently, the platform has featured a rich variety of popular listed categories with ample supply. It includes listings of scarce categories such as imported Indonesian tin ingot, while core new energy raw materials such as battery-grade nickel sulphate have also been launched in batches. Top industry enterprises including MCC Ramu New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Wanhua Chemical (Yantai) Battery Industry Co., Ltd. have all published multiple batches of battery-grade nickel sulphate sales listings on the platform, with single-batch listing Volume ranging from 66 mt to 99 mt. This has provided upstream and downstream enterprises in the new energy industry chain with stable and high-quality supply channels, effectively ensuring the smooth and efficient operation of the industry chain and supply chain. With its concentrated and transparent trading environment and flexible, diversified trading methods, the Anhuida platform’s listing hall has continued to build an efficient bridge for supply and demand matching in the non-ferrous metals industry, helping enterprises reduce transaction communication costs and optimize resource allocation. In the future, the platform will continue to enrich listed categories and improve trading functions, further invigorating the spot trading market for non-ferrous metals. Trading Platform Link: Contact for Inquiries: 021-51666886 Inquiry Email: anhuida@smm.cn

As a niche yet high-strategic rare metal, hafnium (Hf, atomic number 72) lags behind common metals like copper in public awareness, but its unique physicochemical properties make it irreplaceable for nuclear power, aerospace, semiconductors and other high-end fields. This concise breakdown covers its core traits, supply dynamics and critical applications to highlight its underrecognized role in advanced manufacturing. I. Core Properties A silver-gray, high-melting-point transition metal, hafnium exists solely as a zirconium-associated metal—no independent ore deposits. The near-identical atomic radius and chemical properties of zirconium and hafnium make separation/purification highly challenging, the root of its scarcity.Key strengths for harsh industrial use: 2233℃ melting point, exceptional high-temperature oxidation/structural stability Strong room-temperature plasticity, balanced strength and toughness Superior corrosion resistance (insoluble in dilute acids/alkalis, soluble only in hydrofluoric acid/aqua regia) ~600x higher thermal neutron absorption than zirconium (ideal for nuclear reactor control) High dielectric constant of hafnium oxide (critical for advanced semiconductors) Carbides/nitrides (melting point >2900℃) for ultra-high-temperature ceramics and hard alloys II. Supply & Scarcity Resources: Extremely scarce (crustal abundance ~3 ppm), exclusively tied to zirconium ores. Global resources concentrated in Australia, South Africa, the U.S. and Brazil; China faces low hafnium content in domestic zirconium ores, leading to high external dependence. Supply: Production hinges on zirconium smelting, with zirconium-hafnium separation as a core technical barrier. Only a handful of global players produce high-purity (nuclear/electronic-grade) hafnium at scale, forming an oligopoly. Annual output is ~hundreds of tons, with ultra-low supply elasticity—supply disruptions trigger sharp price swings. Ⅲ. Irreplaceable Core Applications Demand is rigid (no cost-effective substitutes) across high-end sectors: Nuclear Industry: Preferred material for pressurized water reactor control rods, regulating reaction rates and ensuring safety. Driven by global nuclear power revival, demand is steadily growing. Aerospace: Key nickel-based single-crystal superalloy additive, boosting high-temperature creep strength and lifespan for aero-engine turbine blades, combustors and rocket nozzles. Semiconductors: High-purity electronic-grade hafnium oxide overcomes silicon dioxide’s miniaturization limits, reducing leakage current and enabling advanced-node chip production—a key growth driver. Other High-End Fields: Used in cutting tool coatings, special electronic components, corrosion-resistant materials and emerging hydrogen storage research, with expanding use cases. Ⅳ. Conclusion Hafnium is a "scarce niche metal with rigid high-end demand," holding irreplaceable strategic value in China’s key industries (nuclear power, aerospace, semiconductors). The global market remains in long-term tight supply-demand balance, and its strategic and market value will rise alongside global advanced manufacturing upgrades.

Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…

On March 17, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained unchanged.

SMM Nickel, March 17: Macro and Market News: (1) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In January-February, the national economy got off to a strong start and posted a good opening. Value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size rose 6.3% YoY, total retail sales increased 2.8%, and real estate development investment fell 11.1% YoY. (2) Trump: The US Fed should immediately hold a special meeting to cut interest rate; the war will end soon, but not this week; once the war with Iran ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a stone. Spot market: On March 17, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel increased by 1,250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,550 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -500-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract fluctuated upward in early trading and closed the morning session at 137,150 yuan/mt, up 0.55%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, forming clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the support logic at the industry level remained unchanged, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products persisted. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

SMM Nickel News, March 16: Macro and Market News: (1) The financial statistics report for February released by the central bank showed that at month-end February, broad money (M2) balance stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; cumulative aggregate social financing for the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans in the first two months increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 345.72 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY; and the month-end RMB deposit balance was 337.94 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. (2) The central bank said in its tender announcement for open-market outright reverse repo operations that on March 16, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price allocation method, with a tenor of six months (182 days). Spot Market: On March 16, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream branded electrodeposited nickel was at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fell sharply intraday and closed the morning session at 135,990 yuan/mt, down 1.83%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the industry-level support logic has not changed, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products remain. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Daily Review: Cost Support Met Cooling Downstream Prices, Putting Pressure on High-Grade NPI Prices] March 16 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.89, down 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, down 0.09 MoM.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuated, Rising First and Then Falling, While Spot Quotes Edged Lower and Transactions Recovered SMM News, March 17: SS futures moved sideways. During the day, SS futures rose first and then fell, overall maintaining a sideways movement pattern, and closed at 14,155 yuan/mt by the midday break. In the spot market, although SS futures were relatively strong in the morning, affected by the previous cuts in guidance prices by major stainless steel mills, trader quotes still edged slightly lower than yesterday. However, market sentiment had stabilized somewhat, and amid the price pullback, both inquiries and transactions increased to some extent. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,220 yuan/mt, up 175 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood at 200-400 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan also fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were basically stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted basically stable in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" began, the stainless steel market entered a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually recovering. Recently, activity in inquiries and purchases increased markedly, but stainless steel spot prices overall remained basically stable, with no obvious fluctuations. End-user procurement was still mainly driven by rigid demand, and the full bustle of the peak season had yet to emerge, ...