US fertilizer producer Mosaic and UK-based Rainbow Rare Earths agreed today to advance the rare earth project in Uberaba, Brazil. The two companies planned, based on the feasibility study results, to establish a processing plant in Uberaba, Minas Gerais, with the final agreement to be negotiated by a jointly owned project company. Construction is expected to take place in 2027.

Australia's Lynas Rare Earths signed a binding letter of intent with the US Department of Defense to supply the US side with light and heavy rare earth oxides worth $96 million over four years, with a floor sales price for Pr-Nd of $110/kg. Based on this, the two sides will finalise a definitive agreement and discuss further cooperation on heavy rare earth supply. The agreement followed Lynas's expanded supply arrangement with Japan's JARE. Under the March 10 agreement, JARE will purchase at least 5,000 mt of Pr-Nd oxide annually at a floor price of $110/kg and buy 50% of Lynas's heavy rare earth production. The price floor matched the 10-year price commitment the US made to MP Materials last year, signalling that Western clients were willing to pay a premium for "non-China" rare earths.

US critical minerals miner Critical Metals announced a $30 million plan to rapidly develop the Tanbreez heavy rare earth project in Greenland. This funding will advance drilling, infrastructure, engineering design, and metallurgical programs, with the goal of commencing the first batch of ore production in Q4 2028 or Q1 2029, and starting rare earth concentrate exports in Q3 2029.

[SMM Rare Earth Prices] Affected by market sentiment, mainstream rare earth prices in China fell across the board. As of now, Pr-Nd oxide was quoted at 735,000-755,000 yuan/mt, down 48,500 yuan/mt from Monday; Pr-Nd alloy was quoted at 930,000-950,000 yuan/mt, down 35,000 yuan/mt from Monday; dysprosium-iron alloy was quoted at 1.36-1.37 million yuan/mt, down 10,000 yuan/mt from Monday; terbium metal was quoted at 7,700-7,720 yuan/kg, down 65 yuan/kg from Monday.

On March 10, 2026, Lynas and Japan’s JARE signed a long-term deal featuring PrNd floor prices, profit-sharing, and heavy rare earth priority. Analyzing 2025 production data, this report evaluates the partnership’s commercial terms, operational progress, and downstream demand security.

As of March 17, the operating rate of 50 electric-furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 38.64%, up 3.26% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 39.87%, up 10.53% WoW; and daily average production of construction materials was 88,800 mt, up 23,500 mt WoW.

Gold prices fall due to interest rate gloom and Middle East tensions. US Fed and major central banks likely to maintain current interest rates. Long-term gold outlook positive, seen as a hedge against risks.

During the survey period (March 10–March 16), the capacity utilization rate of rebar and wire rod rolling lines in the Central China region increased to varying degrees.

SMM Nickel, March 17: Macro and Market News: (1) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In January-February, the national economy got off to a strong start and posted a good opening. Value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size rose 6.3% YoY, total retail sales increased 2.8%, and real estate development investment fell 11.1% YoY. (2) Trump: The US Fed should immediately hold a special meeting to cut interest rate; the war will end soon, but not this week; once the war with Iran ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a stone. Spot market: On March 17, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel increased by 1,250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,550 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -500-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract fluctuated upward in early trading and closed the morning session at 137,150 yuan/mt, up 0.55%. Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, forming clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the support logic at the industry level remained unchanged, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products persisted. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Center of the Most-Traded Contract Rebounded Slightly, and Market Transactions Weakened After Downstream Enterprises Restocked]