[SMM Brass Billet News Flash] According to SMM, China's copper billet industry is expected to gradually enter the traditional consumption off-season in May. Downstream demand from sectors such as refrigeration and home appliances is expected to weaken further, and orders from traditional markets such as sanitary ware and hardware are unlikely to see significant improvement.

[SMM Brass Billet News Flash] According to SMM, copper billet enterprises saw moderate order performance in early April, with orders from sectors such as home appliance heat dissipation and power supporting equipment sustaining production. However, entering late April, end-use demand from downstream weakened notably, compounded by multiple factors, resulting in insufficient production momentum among enterprises.

[SMM Brass Billet News Flash] According to SMM data, the comprehensive operating rate of copper billet producers in China was 52.18% in April, down 0.41 percentage points MoM and down 2.79 percentage points YoY. The overall operating level continued its weak trend, and the divergence among enterprises became more pronounced.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,522.5/mt, fluctuated downward to $13,484.5/mt in early trading, then experienced wild swings reaching a high of $13,583/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,535.5/mt, up 1.59%, with trading volume at 29,500 lots and open interest at 271,000 lots, down 1,154 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears cutting positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,500 yuan/mt, rose to 104,580 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to 103,690 yuan/mt, moved sideways near the end of the session to finally close at 104,200 yuan/mt, up 0.53%, with trading volume at 50,000 lots and open interest at 208,000 lots, down 1,584 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears cutting positions.

In April, the rare earth market, especially the oxide segment, generally showed a trend of rising prices and declining volumes. Specifically, Pr-Nd oxide saw a price increase of 7.07% in April, while dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide both edged up in April. However, due to supply disruptions in the recycling segment, rare earth oxide production all contracted MoM in April. On the foreign trade front, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that rare earth import and export figures in the first four months both grew YoY. Since the beginning of May, downstream demand has shown no improvement, market inquiry activity has been low, and prices of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide have generally trended downward. Currently, the tight rare earth supply situation is unlikely to improve in the short term, and whether downstream demand can recover and whether foreign trade exports can continue to shine will influence the direction of the rare earth market going forward. Pr-Nd oxide rose 7.07% in April; dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide edged up slightly in April Light rare earth prices: Taking the historical price trend of Pr-Nd oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on April 30 was 772,500 yuan/mt, compared with 721,500 yuan/mt on March 31, representing an increase of 51,000 yuan/mt in April, with a monthly gain of 7.07%. Entering May, Pr-Nd oxide was generally in a pullback trend, and on May 8, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 757,500 yuan/mt. Medium-heavy rare earth prices: Taking the trend of dysprosium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of dysprosium oxide on April 30 was 1,375 yuan/kg, compared with 1,365 yuan/kg on March 31, representing an increase of 10 yuan/kg in April, with a monthly gain of 0.73%. Entering May, dysprosium oxide prices pulled back, with the average price on May 8 at 1,340 yuan/kg. Taking the trend of terbium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of terbium oxide on April 30 was 6,125 yuan/kg, compared with 6,080 yuan/kg on March 31, representing an increase of 45 yuan/kg in April, with a monthly gain of 0.74%. Entering May, terbium oxide prices declined, and as of May 8, the average price edged down slightly to 6,110 yuan/kg. Pr-Nd oxide and medium-heavy rare earth production both declined MoM in April Production: Pr-Nd oxide : Pr-Nd oxide production contracted MoM in April. Affected by the dual factors of equipment maintenance and insufficient raw material inventory, recycled Pr-Nd oxide output saw a notable contraction. Meanwhile, some raw ore separation enterprises also experienced production shutdowns, further exacerbating the tightening on the supply side. Both raw ore and recycled segments contracted simultaneously, leading to a notable MoM decline in Pr-Nd oxide supply in April. Medium-heavy rare earth oxides: Medium-heavy rare earth production also edged down slightly MoM in April. Among them, ion-adsorption ore separation enterprises maintained relatively stable overall operations, with no significant fluctuations in production pace. However, production cuts at scrap recycling enterprises weighed on the overall output level of medium-heavy rare earth oxides. As scrap recycling accounts for a certain share of the medium-heavy rare earth supply system, production cuts in this segment affected the total monthly output, resulting in a slight MoM decline in medium-heavy rare earth oxide production. Imports and exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 5,308.6 mt of rare earths in April, up 10.9% YoY; cumulative rare earth exports during January-April reached 19,887.6 mt, up 4.9% YoY. China imported 8,780.7 mt of rare earths in April, down 30.44% YoY; cumulative rare earth imports during January-April amounted to 40,857.8 mt, up 9.5% YoY. Outlook Regarding the outlook for rare earths, supply side, oxide production contracted in April, and the short-term tight supply situation has not eased, with the supply end still providing certain support to rare earth prices. Demand side, before any notable improvement in downstream demand, weak demand is expected to continue suppressing rare earth market performance. However, based on customs export data, the 10.9% growth in rare earth exports in April provided certain external demand support to rare earth prices. If rare earth export data continues to grow in May, it is expected to further boost market confidence. In addition, China and the US are currently in communication regarding Trump's planned visit to China in mid-May. If this head-of-state meeting proceeds smoothly, the two sides may exchange views on issues such as economy and trade and the stability of critical minerals supply chains. Considering US concerns over rare earth supply chain security, if the relevant communication achieves pragmatic progress, it may bring marginal improvement expectations to the rare earth export environment. However, its impact still needs to be cautiously assessed in light of the actual outcomes of the meeting and subsequent policy developments. Overall, the short-term rare earth market will continue to seek direction amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers in the upstream and downstream segments, while changes in external demand and progress in China-US economic and trade communications warrant continued attention. Recommended reading:

US rare earth producer Energy Fuels stated that negotiations on the government stability agreement for its Vera Mada rare earth project in Madagascar slowed down due to management changes in the country, and the financial investment decision originally scheduled before the end of 2029 may be delayed. Meanwhile, the Donald project in Australia also faces delays due to the complexity of coordinating offtake agreements. Nevertheless, the company's first batch of terbium products has attracted significant market interest. Currently, approximately 1 kg of terbium is produced per week, and the company plans to increase production of heavy rare earths such as dysprosium, samarium, and gadolinium based on market demand.

US rare earth company REalloys received a formal memorandum from the US Department of Defense, emphasizing the urgency of building a domestic heavy rare earth element (HREE) supply chain ahead of the January 2027 ban on procurement of Chinese-sourced rare earth materials. REalloys is actively expanding North American metal supply capability to produce defense-grade dysprosium and terbium at commercial scale. The company has signed a long-term offtake agreement with the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) in Canada, securing annual raw material sufficient to produce 530 mt of rare earth metals, and is investing in expanding SRC's processing facilities to provide emergency supply assurance for fully closing the Chinese-sourced gap in the defense supply chain by 2027.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Post-Holiday Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Retreat after Rapid Rise, Market Lacks Fundamental Support SMM, May 8: SS futures continued their downward pullback trend. SS futures dropped rapidly at the opening of the night session, then moved sideways. The downward fluctuation trend continued after the daytime session opened. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,520 yuan/mt. Spot market side, affected by the continuous pullback in futures, the stainless steel spot market still held confidence in the outlook, with spot quotes remaining firm. End-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions showed mediocre performance. The most-traded SS futures contract fell and pulled back. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,420 yuan/mt, down 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 200-400 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the Wuxi average price remained flat, while the Foshan average price rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area remained flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes rose by 150 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. Currently, the stainless steel market was driven by wild swings in futures, with spot quotes pulling back after a rapid rise. The short-term price increase exceeded expectations and had limited correlation with its own fundamentals. End-user acceptance was insufficient, and transactions showed phased characteristics. This week was the first week after the Labour Day holiday. Earlier, the rapid rise in futures drove the market to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn, coupled with restocking demand due to insufficient pre-holiday stockpiling and purchases by futures-spot arbitrage institutions...

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Outlook for next week: Shanghai spot copper premiums continued under pressure during the day. Suppliers consecutively lowered their offers throughout the day, with the premium center shifting notably downward, reflecting limited downstream acceptance of high copper prices and premiums, with purchasing driven mainly by rigid demand. In addition, the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread stayed high, with theoretical arbitrage opportunities persisting, which may attract east China cargo to be diverted to south China, diverting available cargo from the Shanghai market and providing some support for local spot discounts. Notably, next Friday is the delivery day for the May contract, and delivery logic is gradually emerging, which may provide bottom support for spot premiums. Overall, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure, but downside room is expected to be supported by delivery expectations.

The rally that propelled gold and silver to record-breaking highs in 2025 could pick up again if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached, market watchers told CNBC as prices ticked higher on Thursday.