This week, the copper scrap market operated under the interweaving influences of fluctuating copper prices, the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and ongoing compliance inspections on "reverse invoicing," presenting structural characteristics of "regional divergence in supply, essential demand-driven procurement, and transactions driven by invoices rather than prices

Asian stainless steel prices held stable for a third consecutive week, with Chinese Taiwan's export quotes unchanged and Chinese export offers rebounding to steady levels after a brief dip earlier in the month. Raw material trends diverged, LME nickel prices softened while Indonesian NPI gained ground; Chinese domestic ferronickel stabilized and stainless steel futures posted a weekly gain. Trading activity remains quiet during the traditional off-season, though consumption levels are running ahead of the same period last year. A recent Middle East peace accord helped nickel prices bounce back, pointing to a firm short-term market trend.

[Imported Zinc Concentrate Market] Overseas ore supply disruptions have persisted recently. Offers for imported ore remained scarce this week, with some heard quoted at around -$80 to -$90/dmt, but smelters held a strong wait-and-see sentiment, keeping overall trading activity sluggish during the week.

[Silicon metal futures fluctuate narrowly, spot market largely stable]: Downstream and trader procurement sentiment is cautious, with some users digesting previous low-price inventories. Clients outside China have purchase price expectations lower than current prices, and sentiment for new orders in the market is sluggish. Some users expect to purchase via futures point pricing at around 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season is already within expectations, with few new variables in the market. As variables on both supply and demand sides are highly deterministic in the short term, market sentiment in the buyer-seller tug-of-war appears rational. The silicon metal price center is expected to remain near the low end of the range in the near term.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 15–18, 2026. A mid-week hawkish Fed turn capped an early rally, but supply tightening and firm mill pricing lifted the SHFE board RMB 355/mt on the week of June 15–19.

In the spot market this week (6.15-6.18), SMM #1 lead prices first rose then fell, continuing to climb during the week before a slight correction ahead of the holiday. With mid-year settlement and the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, downstream stocking willingness was sluggish, purchases at high prices were cautious, and spot order trading was sluggish. By region, smelters in Henan had low inventory and tight spot order supply, while traders’ supply was stably at discounts of 100-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2607 contract, with sluggish trading; smelters in Hunan quoted premiums of 0-20 yuan on the 15th, turned to discounts of 30-0 yuan on the 17th and 18th, with some cargoes negotiated to a discount of 50 yuan; smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui were unwilling to make significant concessions throughout, only slightly lowering their quotes, with premiums narrowing from 100-150 yuan to 80-100 yuan. Overall, downstream mostly relied on long-term contract purchases, and spot transactions were generally weak this week.

SMM, June 18: Lead prices first rose then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, smelters showed clear divergence in shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt. Downstream battery plants digested inventories, weakening transactions. Mid-week, increased maintenance at smelters tightened supply, and mainstream quotations shifted to discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt. Towards the weekend, lead prices pulled back slightly, with the discount range remaining unchanged. Ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream users halted procurement early, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Spot transactions were sluggish throughout the week. Lead prices rose by 345 yuan/mt on a weekly basis. Downstream users turned wait-and-see before the Dragon Boat Festival, and transactions for secondary refined lead were subdued. Smelters' raw material inventories declined, but they were reluctant to raise purchase prices for feed, leaving scrap battery purchase prices basically stable. As of June 18, large secondary lead enterprises suffered losses of 395 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized plants incurred losses of 597 yuan/mt, narrowing by 113-115 yuan/mt compared with June 12. Looking ahead, with both production increases and cuts coexisting among secondary smelters, the quotation range for refined lead is expected to remain between discounts of 50 yuan/mt and premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Currently, low raw material inventories at smelters underpin scrap battery prices, but raising purchase prices for feed would exacerbate losses. Purchase prices are expected to remain predominantly stable. With weak finished product prices and high costs, the industry's loss-making situation is unlikely to improve in the short term, with small and medium-sized plants suffering more severe losses.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: DMC Transaction Center Shifts Down Again amid Stalemate in Tug-of-War Between Upstream and Downstream] This week, the supply-demand stalemate in China’s silicone DMC market intensified, and prices again appeared stable on the surface but declined in reality, with mainstream transaction prices at 14,000-14,300 yuan/mt, averaging 14,150 yuan/mt.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Review] In news, some steel mills in certain regions have accepted the eighth round of coke price increases, with wet-quenched coke up by 50 yuan/mt and coke dry quenching up by 55 yuan/mt, effective June 22. Supply side, affected by the ongoing stringent safety inspections in Shanxi, coking coal supply remains tight, and the coking coal price increase has consistently outpaced the coke price increase; most coke producers are still incurring losses, and to reduce losses, these producers are voluntarily intensifying production restrictions, leading to a short-term decline in coke supply. Demand side, steel mill operating rates currently remain high, and due to the tight coke supply, their coke inventory replenishment has fallen short of expectations, leaving them with continued restocking demand for coke.

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Rise in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Slightly Recover but Struggle to Rise This week, stainless steel prices and production costs moved up together, slightly expanding steel mill profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the profit margin based on current raw material costs stood at 2.31%, while that based on inventory raw material costs was 2.59%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Driven by both the sharp rise in SS futures and the gradual release of downstream procurement demand during the week, high-grade NPI prices moved up accordingly. Market expectations for further price increases remain relatively strong, with a notable willingness to hold prices firm. In the near term, high-grade NPI prices are expected to continue fluctuating upward. As of this Friday, mainstream 10%-12% grade high-grade NPI rose by 9 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,149.5 yuan/nickel unit. In the stainless steel scrap market, scrap prices edged up this week, bolstered by the combined boost from stronger futures, rising finished steel prices, and the recovery of high-grade NPI, with evident cost support. However, the market has entered the traditional off-season, with frequent production cuts at steel mills weakening demand expectations. Additionally, tax invoice issues have constrained trading activity. While short-term positives have supported firmer prices, under the dual pressures of weak off-season demand and industry pain points, further upside will struggle, and there is a risk of a pullback. As of this Friday, prices of mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with latest quotations at around 10,550 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. Despite recent news of power supply tightness in the Mengxi region of Inner Mongolia, the impact on local high-carbon ferrochrome production...