This week, FOB quotations in the ex-China rare earth market generally declined, with varieties such as terbium oxide and terbium metal seeing noticeable drops. However, affected by policies and weak demand, actual transaction volumes were thin, and heavy rare earth prices stayed high. Meanwhile, supply chain restructuring moves were frequent: resources at Namibia's Kameelburg increased by another 35%, Japanese capital officially entered the Lofdal project; Malaysia considered conditionally liberalizing raw ore exports; US-based Energy Fuels advanced the final investment decision for the Donald project in Australia, and Lockheed Martin signed a long-term scandium supply agreement. A survey in Japan showed that 80% of manufacturing executives considered rare earth procurement a major risk, highlighting anxiety in the industry chain.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 27 – July 31, 2026. Conflicting RKAB supplementary quota signals and a hawkish Fed swing the benchmark contract to a RMB 30/mt gain in the week of August 3–7.

SMM, August 7: The scrap battery market remained largely stable this week, with purchase quotes from some smelters edging up slightly. A mid-week rise in SHFE lead prices triggered a brief recovery in market sentiment, prompting recyclers to sell into the strength, before the market returned to a cautious, wait-and-see mode. Losses at smelters and weak secondary lead transactions curbed raw material procurement appetite, suppressing both scrap battery purchasing volumes and the acceptance of high bids. However, limited growth in social supply lent support to prices. Next week, scrap battery prices are expected to remain steady with a mild upward bias. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in secondary lead, adjustments in smelter operating rates, and the fulfillment of demand expectations during the traditional peak season. If a marginal improvement in lead ingot consumption drives a rebound in lead prices, scrap battery prices are likely to follow in tandem.

Aug 7 News: At north China ports, manganese ore prices declined WoW across all grades: 46% Australian lumps (40-40.5 yuan/mtu), South African semi-carbonate (32.7-33.2 yuan/mtu), Gabonese ore (37.8-38.2 yuan/mtu), South African high-iron ore (28.5-29 yuan/mtu), and South African medium-iron ore (35-35.5 yuan/mtu). At south China ports, manganese ore prices were mixed WoW: 46% Australian lumps (42.9-43.4 yuan/mtu) remained flat, South African semi-carbonate (36.3-36.8 yuan/mtu) declined, Gabonese ore (40.6-41.1 yuan/mtu) declined, South African high-iron ore (31.2-31.7 yuan/mtu) declined, and South African medium-iron ore (38-38.5 yuan/mtu) remained flat. Manganese ore market prices are grinding lower, end-use demand is sluggish, and traders are commonly cutting prices to sell.

[ SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Transaction Comment ] Quotation and inquiry activity in the rare earth oxide market was not high. Most market participants lacked confidence in the future market of Pr-Nd oxide, and downstream had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As the weekend approached, the market trading atmosphere became more sluggish. In the Pr-Nd alloy market, inquiry activity in the afternoon remained scarce. Metal enterprises lowered their quotes to 880,000-890,000 yuan/mt, with a small amount of transactions completed at 888,000 yuan/mt, but the inquiry prices from magnetic material enterprises were still low. In the gadolinium iron market, inquiry activity also remained scarce. High-priced transactions were difficult, and quotes were lowered to 190,000-193,000 yuan/mt.

This week (August 3-7, 2026), the SMM #1 lead weekly average price was 15,425 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt WoW, with prices falling to the lowest level since late June 2023. At the beginning of the week, lead prices plunged sharply, market risk-aversion sentiment clearly heated up, and procurement sentiment among downstream enterprises diverged. Some enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach due to concerns of further declines, while others restocked for essential needs at lower prices. Overall spot market transactions were mixed. As lead prices fell to lows, primary lead smelters' sentiment to hold back from selling at low prices strengthened. Some enterprises suspended external quotations and shipments, and the few that maintained shipments also had firm quotations. Main producing area primary lead quotations were at premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory. In secondary lead, most smelters also suspended shipments to wait and see, resulting in reduced availability of circulating cargoes. A few smelters quoted at premiums of 25-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory, with a small number posting premiums as high as 125 yuan/mt. After mid-week, as news of maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead enterprises increased, market expectations of subsequent supply tightening grew, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream enterprises had some restocking demand at the early stage of the price rebound, but as lead prices rose further, considering the limited improvement in end-use consumption, their procurement enthusiasm declined again, and transactions for high-priced cargoes turned quiet. The overall market maintained a pace of purchasing as needed.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] Coking coal market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal was quoted at 2,000 yuan/mt. For coking coal, constrained by safety inspections, safety requirements, prior overproduction checks and other factors, most operating mines maintained low utilization rates, coking coal supply was limited. Online auction sentiment clearly stabilized, the failed bid ratio remained low, and market sentiment recovered. However, affected by steel mill losses, coke producer production restrictions and other factors, coking coal prices are unlikely to rise in the short term, and may continue to remain stable for the time being. Coke market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) was 1,980 yuan/mt. On the news front, mainstream steel mills lowered their coke purchase prices: wet quenching down 50 yuan/mt, dry quenching down 55 yuan/mt, effective from 0:00 on August 7, 2026. On the supply side, most independent coke producers fell into losses, costs were relatively rigid, coke supply contracted, and coke producers’ shipments were blocked, leading to a continuous build-up of coke inventory. On the demand side, the steel market remained in the traditional off-season, compounded by high temperatures and rainy weather, which widened the scope of blast furnace maintenance at steel mills, significantly weakening rigid demand for coke. In summary, the coke market is likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term, but there is a possibility of a delayed price cut. [SMM Steel]

[Vietnam] Vietnam’s domestic steel market remained broadly stable after major mills raised prices last week. Prices for rebar held at around USD 533.6/tonne, while HRC for August delivery was quoted at USD 556–557/tonne. Rainy-season demand weakness and lower input costs limited further gains, while international prices eased from USD 540/tonne to USD 536/tonne. Meanwhile, the EU proposed a 16% anti-dumping duty on Vietnamese CRC, which could raise export costs and weaken its competitiveness in the EU market.

This week, industry chain prices diverged. Lithium ore edged down alongside lithium carbonate, but mines continued to hold prices firm, making profit distribution across the industry chain a market focus. Supported by maintenance and tight spot order supply, lithium carbonate prices consolidated on a subdued note, while lithium hydroxide prices initially fell before rebounding. The cobalt industry chain remained generally under pressure—with weakening overseas quotations and sluggish off-season demand, refined cobalt, intermediate products, and cobalt salt prices continued to weaken, and the price spread between buyers and sellers widened. Nickel sulphate edged down, with the market still primarily focused on destocking; ternary cathode precursor prices declined due to weaker nickel and cobalt salt prices, while ternary cathode material prices remained basically stable. LFP prices proved resilient, supported by rising processing fees, with August production schedules continuing to grow and high-quality capacity remaining tight. Artificial graphite prices rose, the supply-demand balance for separators stayed in tight balance, and electrolyte prices were pushed up by raw material cost transmission. Supply of key materials for sodium-ion batteries remained tight, while recycling-side transactions were subdued. On the terminal side, EV and ESS demand maintained resilience, though the consumer market recovery remained limited. Looking ahead, the focus will be on peak season stockpiling and demand realization.

The industry chain continued to be in the doldrums this week. Overseas spot cargo and futures quotations declined, and domestic salt and intermediate product prices remained weak, intensifying bearish market sentiment. Mainstream smelters lowered their refined cobalt quotations to 340,000 yuan/mt, while downstream procurement during the off-season remained focused on small-volume rigid demand. Trading in the intermediate product market was sluggish, with miners’ indicative prices at approximately $21–21.5/lb, while downstream psychological price levels had dropped to around $18–19/lb, further widening the price spread. Cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 all faced downward price pressure due to weak demand, inventory pressure, and cost-related bargaining, while the actual transaction price center for cobalt powder also edged lower. Ternary cathode precursor prices declined in line with weaker nickel and cobalt salt prices, though orders from top-tier players for overseas and power battery applications performed relatively well. Ternary cathode material prices were basically stable, with orders in August showing steady growth. Demand recovery in the LCO market remained slow, with production and sales still at low levels. The market in the short term is expected to continue grappling with off-season demand, Q3 stockpiling, and raw material price changes.