SMM, June 30: Pr-Nd oxide prices rose overall in June. The initial upward momentum stemmed mainly from strong market expectations of large-scale production cuts and shutdowns at scrap recycling enterprises—industry participants expected this segment to reduce Pr-Nd oxide output by more than 1,000 mt, and the tight supply sentiment quickly pushed up quotes. However, toward month-end, actual production halts fell short of expectations, while new order growth at metal plants remained slow, limiting downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials. As actual transaction prices for Pr-Nd oxide climbed to 750,000 yuan/mt, buyers became noticeably hesitant to take orders, weakening the upward momentum. Additionally, new bearish factors emerged, and most industry participants adopted a conservative stance on how high Pr-Nd prices could go, cooling the sentiment of chasing highs. For medium-heavy rare earths, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide showed strong performance in the first half of the month, mainly because upstream producers significantly reduced their willingness to sell, and low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed by the market, driving prices sharply higher. But in the second half, orders at downstream metal plants did not improve materially, and metal companies were reluctant to accept high-priced raw materials, leaving buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate. As a result, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices entered a consolidation phase at highs. Although end-use demand orders have not yet shown marked improvement and buyers' purchasing power remains limited overall, the supply side of upstream oxides has indeed contracted—whether through partial production halts in the scrap sector or tighter shipments of medium-heavy rare earths, both provide bottom support for prices. Some industry participants believe that as Q3 approaches, rare earth prices are unlikely to see much downside room after moving past the traditional off-season, and upstream quotations have therefore remained firm. Overall, rare earth oxide prices are expected to hold up moderately in July, but the upside will still be constrained by the pace of demand recovery. The market should closely monitor downstream restocking trends and changes in macro sentiment.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, some coal prices pull back slightly, but skeletal coal prices remain firm, and most coal types stay high. Cost pressure on coking enterprises is difficult to ease, and profit improvement is limited. Currently, coking operations are stable, and enterprises are generally selling actively. Demand side, daily average hot metal output stays high, and steel mills' blast furnace operations are stable, rigidly supporting coke demand. However, steel prices are falling steadily, steel mills' profitability is under pressure, and some steel mills have expectations for production cuts. Overall, the short-term tight supply-demand pattern for coke is difficult to change, market support is sufficient, and the market continues to hold up well. The expectation for the ninth coke price hike to take effect is strong.

[EU] EU local steel demand remains weak due to poor weather conditions and extended summer holidays, and HRC prices are under downward pressure. Currently, some steel mills' ex-works quotations are around $775–781/mt EXW, but traders report that actual transaction prices are even lower and vary by region. Although there were rumors that large steel mills planned to increase prices by $57–80/mt from July to August, given the current weak conditions, the likelihood of further price increases remains unclear. Buyers are currently fully in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer market conditions after July 1. In the short term, the overall market is expected to remain under pressure.

SMM News, June 30: In the metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 2.13%, SHFE lead fell 1.02%, SHFE zinc fell 0.16%, SHFE tin edged up, and SHFE nickel fell 1.8%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.41%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.56%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 4.82%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.8%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.2%, HRC edged up, rebar fell 0.13%, and stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.55%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.18%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.24%, LME aluminum edged up, LME lead fell 0.18%, LME zinc fell 0.19%, LME tin rose 0.44%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.48%, COMEX silver fell 1.19%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 2.67%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.16%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 3.29%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract was flat at 290.65 yuan/g. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 1.7% to 3,662.5 points. As of 11:36 on June 30, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainstream traded at 24,030-24,250 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 24,220-24,530 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded around 24,100-24,240 yuan/mt, Zijin against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 30-40 yuan/mt, Huxin quoted at 25,090 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 50-100 yuan/mt, Tianjin market versus Shanghai market reported a discount of around 40 yuan/mt. Today contract rollover quotations... Macro Front Domestic side: [National Bureau of Statistics: June manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's economic prosperity level rebounded somewhat] According to NBS data, in June, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. By enterprise size, large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, still above the threshold; medium-sized enterprises' PMI was 50.5%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, above the threshold; small enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, below the threshold. From the sub-indexes perspective, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the Service Survey Center at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on China's PMI for June 2026: In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a rebound in non-manufacturing activity. The expansion in the services sector accelerated. The services business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in activity. By industry, business activity indexes for sectors such as telecommunication, radio and television, and satellite transmission services; internet, software, and information technology services; monetary and financial services; and insurance were all in the higher expansion zone above 55.0%, with relatively rapid growth in business volume. The indexes for air transport and real estate remained below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index was 56.0%, up 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating improving expectations among enterprises regarding market development. The construction sector saw some improvement. The construction business activity index was 49.0%, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, a marginal rebound. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.1%, continuing to indicate expansion. [PBOC conducts 669.5 billion yuan reverse repo in open market, net withdrawal of 155 billion yuan for the day] The PBOC conducted a 69.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today, with an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from before. Today, 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repos mature. At the same time, the PBOC conducted a 600 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation, and today 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repos mature. On the US dollar front: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 101.31. The US Supreme Court blocked Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook; the move was a forceful rebuke to the president's attack on the world's most important central bank. The 5-4 ruling is the latest major check on the Trump administration by the Supreme Court. Earlier this year, the court also ruled that the president does not have the authority to impose tariffs using emergency powers, a decision that shook a key pillar of the Trump administration's economic policy. The ruling released on Monday rejected the first-ever attempt by a US president to remove a Fed governor; critics have warned that such a move would undermine the central bank's independence. However, on Monday the US Supreme Court also cleared the way for Trump to fire Federal Trade Commission (FTC) members without cause; a move that grants the White House greater power and tightens control over independent regulatory agencies. According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, and that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 29.9%. For September, the probability of unchanged rates is 37.2%, that of a 25bp cumulative hike is 48.8%, and that of a 50bp hike is 14.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today’s releases include the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for April, the US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index NSA YoY for April, the US Chicago PMI for June, the US JOLTS Job Openings for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June, the UK Q1 GDP YoY Final, the UK Q1 Current Account, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, France’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, Switzerland’s June KOF Economic Barometer, Canada’s April GDP MoM, Japan’s May unemployment rate, and other data. Also, watch for: ECB President Lagarde delivers opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, and the US and Iran hold technical negotiations. It is also worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with northbound and southbound trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange will be closed for Canada Day. Other currencies: The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting showed the bank believed monetary policy needed to remain tight to eliminate surplus demand in the economy. As the minutes were compiled before Brent crude prices fell more than 10% last week, the hawkish tone reflected in them has become notably disconnected from current market moves. Currently, the market is pricing in only 10bp of further tightening by year-end, while the probability of easing by 2027 stands at 17bp. The tension for the Australian dollar lies in that, on one hand, the RBA clearly stated it is prepared to hike again if needed; on the other, the market believes rates have likely peaked. If upcoming data confirms that weaker oil prices are gradually feeding through to inflation expectations, the Australian dollar could face a repricing. Meanwhile, falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are adding to domestic growth risks and could reinforce the market’s dovish repricing, even as the RBA board’s rhetoric remains distinctly hawkish.((Jinshi Data APP) Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.27% and Brent down 0.15%. The market was focused on possible talks between the US and Iran. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran’s top priority at that time was to ensure the implementation of all provisions of the memorandum of understanding. With regard to Article 10 of the memorandum concerning the US commitment to allow Iranian oil exports, the US side had already issued the necessary permits, and Iran was following up on the implementation progress. As for Article 11 regarding the unfreezing of Iranian assets, the relevant implementation procedures were also progressing. This week, Iran would send a technical delegation to Qatar for consultations on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. The spokesperson said that Iran had not yet initiated negotiations on a final agreement. According to Article 13 of the memorandum, the precondition for initiating final agreement negotiations was the commencement and continued implementation of Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11. Furthermore, the spokesperson stressed that there would be no negotiations at any level between Iran and the US in the coming days. The trip by US representatives to Qatar was unrelated to the Iranian technical delegation’s visit; the Iranian delegation’s purpose in going to Qatar was to follow up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. (CCTV) According to trade sources and a document, Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) had sharply reduced its official selling prices to attract long-term buyers to lift Basrah crude from its terminals in the Middle East Gulf in July. The discount for Basrah Medium was $14 to $16 per barrel, and for Basrah Heavy, it was $16.8 to $18.8 per barrel, depending on the loading date. Discounts were larger for loadings from July 1 to 5, and smaller for loadings from July 6 to 10, and from July 11 to 31. SOMO said that buyers needed to submit their order quantities within one day of receiving the notification letter. Trade sources said that the steep discounts might attract buyers, but it remained to be seen whether passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible. (Jinshi Data APP) According to data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. The inventory decline was part of a US agreement to release 172 million barrels of crude from the reserve to fill a gap in global inventories following the Iran conflict and help push down fuel prices. US crude inventories fell rapidly in recent weeks due to strong crude exports and refining demand. From the outbreak of the conflict in late February to June 19, total US inventories, including commercial stocks and the SPR, had fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, the lowest level since 1984. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 30 news: The futures market plummeted again today, and the spot market in South China improved slightly. The absolute price hit a new recent low, making cargo holders more determined to hold back from selling. Sellers' room for selling was significantly limited, with almost no discounts. However, hedged positions continued to push for timely monetization amid falling prices while the spot-futures price spread remained high. Mainstream quotations were at a premium of 0 to +10 yuan/mt, neither high nor low, and availability tightened somewhat compared with earlier. Demand side, downstream dip-buying demand increased somewhat, but some bearish wait-and-see sentiment limited the scale of increase, and the buying strength was mild. Traders remained reluctant to enter the market, only purchasing on an as-needed basis to fulfill orders. There was almost no replenishment by intermediaries. Overall transactions were lukewarm. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract.

Platinum prices drifted lower today. With ongoing uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-Iran situation and repeated swings in market rate hike expectations, precious metals futures are likely to continue swinging wildly, limiting upside room. In early trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 closed at 388.9 yuan/g, down 3.29%. The inverted spread between the SGE Pt9995 best ask price and GFEX PT2608 narrowed to around 4 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum ranged from a discount of 1 yuan/g to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. Mainstream quotations against the contract were basically flat compared to the previous trading day, with most traders quoting at parity with the most-traded contract but seeing difficulty in closing deals. A small portion of spot platinum with current-month invoices was quoted at a modest premium. Most upstream enterprises showed limited willingness to sell due to low absolute prices, while downstream demand was limited and the wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Overall, platinum trading was relatively sluggish today.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,903.5/mt. During the Asian session, funds steadily pushed up futures, with prices drifting higher continuously and reaching an intraday high of $1,914/mt. In the European session, bullish momentum faded quickly, and futures came under pressure, drifting lower in a continuous decline and hitting bottom at a low of $1,890/mt. Near the close, losses narrowed slightly, and it finally settled at $1,892.5/mt, down $9/mt, or 0.47%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,180 yuan/mt, briefly dipped to a low of 16,125 yuan/mt in early trading, then bulls quickly fought back, pushing prices to drift higher to 16,200 yuan/mt. After the spike, upward momentum faded quickly, and futures remained under pressure below the intraday moving average, drifting lower to finally settle at 16,130 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.37%. Macro front: The US Supreme Court blocked Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Cook. Trump: Will immediately take action on Fed Governor Cook’s eligibility to serve. Iran: The current focus is on implementing the memorandum of understanding, and no talks with the US will be held in the near term. China and the EU officially confirmed the establishment of a China-EU trade and investment consultation mechanism. Chinese air conditioners sold out in Europe, with Midea doubling sales and Gree fully sold out. Starting July 1, nearly 20 semiconductor companies initiated a new round of price hikes with concentrated adjustments. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and suppliers sold at prevailing rates. Price premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were basically flat WoW. EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were quoted lower in the south and higher in the north, with mainstream producing area quotations ranging from a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters held back from selling at low prices and were less willing to quote; some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an EXW basis, remaining in an inverted state versus primary lead. For downstream enterprises, demand was limited at month-end. Most enterprises only made just-in-time procurement or used long-term contracts, with limited inquiries and thin transactions in the spot market. Inventory: On June 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 450 mt to 297,000 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory in five regions rose by 3,700 mt to 71,200 mt. Today's lead price forecast: Recently, the secondary lead supply side has seen a tug-of-war between longs and shorts: on one hand, several previously maintenance-hit secondary lead smelters have delayed their production resumptions; on the other hand, some smelters have gradually resumed production, with supply increases and decreases offsetting each other. The demand side is visibly under pressure, with a slow downstream consumption recovery pace and low willingness among enterprises to purchase and pick up goods. Combined with the dual impact of the traditional off-season and high temperatures, many downstream processing enterprises plan to halt production for holidays, further dragging down end-use demand. Currently, lead prices remain on a downward trajectory, but primary and secondary lead prices have inverted, coupled with scrap battery raw material costs staying high, providing bottom support for lead prices.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, on the inventory front, SMM data shows that Shanghai social inventory stood at 134,200 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu inventory stood at 41,200 mt, down 900 mt WoW. Although some imported cargo arrived at ports, overall warehouse withdrawals last week were good, and inventory continued a slight destocking trend, providing some support for spot discounts. Supplier side, the month-end selling pressure has been largely released, and market shipments have returned to normal pace. Supplier quotations were relatively stable during the day, showing no signs of significant downward adjustments. Moreover, some suppliers are bullish on the premiums outlook, and their willingness to hold prices firm has strengthened. From the invoice structure, cargoes with invoices dated this month remain relatively tight, with a certain price spread maintained between current-month and next-month invoices. Overall, with the end of month-end selling, inventory destocking, and suppliers' firm price stance, the overall discount center of Shanghai spot copper against the 2607 contract is expected to edge up further tomorrow.

SMM, June 29: Futures edged up today, while spot aluminum in South China was in the doldrums. Inventory destocking remained steady and substantial, continuing to provide holders with the confidence to hold prices firm. In the morning, sellers continued their slow-selling pace to control prices. However, spot-futures spread expectations stayed at a relatively high level. Coupled with bearish sentiment disruptions and intensifying half-year cash realization needs, actual selling gradually shifted to larger volumes. As a result, supply loosened to a slightly surplus state, and mainstream quotations at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to par gradually dominated. Demand side, after aluminum prices stopped falling, downstream restocking demand was moderate, providing some bottom support. However, traders showed very little willingness to enter the market except for buying to meet delivery obligations; intermediate replenishment was almost completely absent, causing transactions to lose follow-through momentum. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of -30 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract.

Platinum prices drifted higher today. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Iran situation eased first but then became volatile again, causing market sentiment to waver. On the macro data front, U.S. Q1 GDP data showed concerns about the consumption recovery, providing some support for precious metals, which rebounded slightly. In morning trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 closed at 404.85 yuan/g, up 2.77%, while the inverted spread between the sell-one price of Pt 9995 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and GFEX PT2608 remained around 5 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream platinum prices were quoted at a discount of 1 yuan/g to parity against the PT2608 contract, with the discount in mainstream quotations widening slightly from the previous trading day. Most traders still quoted around parity against the most-traded contract, but transactions were rather difficult to complete. Most upstream enterprises had limited willingness to sell due to low absolute prices, while downstream consumption was low and wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Overall, platinum transactions were somewhat sluggish today.