This week, ferrous metals fluctuated at highs, with raw material ore and coking products outperforming steel. Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, ore and coking products held up well, supported by higher shipping costs and transmission from coal and coke as energy substitutes. In the second half of the week, supply and demand data for hot-rolled coil and rebar were released. The increase in rebar inventory slowed markedly; however, hot-rolled coil demand was lower than the same period last year, and the pace of post-holiday recovery was relatively slow, leaving steel as a whole with limited upward momentum, while futures retreated after rapid rise. In the spot market, trading in the Chinese market was average this week.....

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, the domestic alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. The 16 green electricity smart hydrogen production systems built by Shuangliang Group for ACME Group’s Oman green ammonia project with a daily output of 300 mt officially commenced shipment. Updates on electrolyzer projects: Xinjiang Hynda Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The EPC tender was released for an integrated production line project with an annual production of 120,000 mt of green hydrogen and 700,000 mt of green ammonia. It is understood that this project is the largest green ammonia producer in China in terms of both scale and production, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan. At present, company registration, project filing, and equipment selection have been completed. The preliminary site is in Wusu West Industrial Park, covering about 600-800 mu; the next step will be to accelerate project planning and design, EIA, energy assessment, safety assessment, and other pre-project procedures, striving to commence production and achieve results as early as possible. Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. Xinjiang Jiangbei Petroleum Branch: The first public notice for the EIA information disclosure of the new construction project of the Kunlun Road integrated energy supply station in Karamay District was released. Construction location: opposite the bus company on Kunlun Road, Karamay District. Construction content: the project covers an area of 7,504.01 m², with a newly built station building of 390 m² and a canopy of 450 m²; it will include 4 oil storage tanks, 2 fuel dispensers, 1 set of LNG skid-mounted equipment, 2 fast charging piles, 1 set of water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, a set of hydrogen storage cylinders, and one set of hydrogen skid-mounted and refueling equipment. Annual sales: 3,500 mt of refined oil products, 800 mt of LNG, and 120 mt of hydrogen. China Coal Pingshuo Group Co., Ltd. : A change announcement was released for the procurement project of complete sets of alkaline electrolyzer equipment and ancillary facilities for Phase I of the 600,000 kW off-grid renewable energy hydrogen production project in the coal mining subsidence area of China Coal Pingshuo Group (green hydrogen coupled with the coal chemical segment), and the bid opening time was postponed to March 17, 2026. It is understood that the project adopts a main-and-auxiliary supply model, and the quotation includes 12×1,200 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers, 3×4,800 Nm³/h gas-liquid separation systems, 3×4,800 Nm³/h gas purification systems, etc. Junrui Green Hydrogen Energy (Shangdu County) Co., Ltd. : The 30,000 mt/year hydrogen production project in Lingyuan City completed filing. Total investment was 146,037 yuan; the project covers 375 mu, including an electrolysis workshop, 2 purification and compression workshops, a power station, a hydrogen tank farm, etc.; core equipment includes 84 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h electrolyzers, hydrogen storage tanks, as well as hydrogen purification units, compressors, etc. Inner Mongolia Green Hydrogen Steel Union Technology Co., Ltd.: The filing for the green electricity and green hydrogen steel mill plant construction project, a banner/county industrial project, was successfully completed. It was learned that the project’s main construction location is Guyang County, Baotou City; total investment: 1.02 billion yuan, funded by self-owned capital; planned construction period: from March 2026 to October 2027; construction content: construction of green electricity, green hydrogen, and green steel plant buildings and auxiliary facilities. Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd.: Cancellation of the Green Methanol Plant Building Construction Project. It was learned that the Green Methanol Plant Building Construction Project of Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Baotou City—Guyang County—Jinshan Industrial Park. The project entity is Inner Mongolia Junhong Technology Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan. Policy Review 1. Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report at the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress, emphasizing that efforts must be made to advance the development of a green, low-carbon economy. Specific measures include: improving relevant policies to promote green and low-carbon development; carrying out actions to improve quality, reduce costs, and cut carbon emissions in key industry; further advancing the development of zero-carbon industrial parks and factories; establishing a national low-carbon transition fund and actively fostering emerging growth drivers such as hydrogen energy and green fuels; implementing strong and effective controls over high energy-consuming and high-emission projects, accelerating the phase-out of outdated capacity, while supporting innovation and application of green and low-carbon technology and equipment; improving the mechanism for total resource volume management and the comprehensive conservation system, and strengthening the recycling and utilization of renewable resources. 2. The European Commission stated that it will maintain the fertilizer carbon tariff mechanism, while simultaneously implementing temporary tariff reductions and exemptions for fertilizers such as ammonia and urea, in order to balance environmental protection goals with agricultural cost pressure, ensure fair competition, and stabilize clean energy investment. 3. The European Commission approved a 4 billion euro dedicated fund for electrolyzers, providing a 30% equipment cost subsidy for projects with capacity ≥500MW/year, and setting the 2030 electrolyzer efficiency target for green hydrogen projects at ≥60% (LHV basis). Enterprise Updates Shandong Port Qingdao Port (Group) Co., Ltd. : At the Qianwan Port Area of Shandong Port Qingdao Port, the methanol bunkering vessel “Jianhang Lida” successfully carried out 2,500 mt of green methanol ship-to-ship bunkering operations for two international seagoing vessels. SPIC Green Energy Co., Ltd.: Tender Announcement for the 10th Batch of Centralized Tenders in 2026 (infrastructure projects). This includes multiple tenders related to the Lishu wind and solar power hydrogen-ammonia-methanol project: the foundation pile detection service project for the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project; the non-destructive detection service project for the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project; and the EPC project for the design and construction of the fine interior fit-out of the office building and canteen in the plant-front area of the chemical section of the Lishu wind and solar power green hydrogen biomass-coupled green methanol project. Hangzhou Fenghua Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The major project approved by the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Marine Economic Development, jointly applied for with Windey, Baimahu Laboratory, Zhejiang University of Technology, and others—R&D and application demonstration of key equipment for an offshore wind power direct-coupled hydrogen production off-grid system—was approved. Tangshan Haitai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Held a symposium with Beijing Energy International Holding Co., Ltd. The two sides focused on areas such as the construction of green electricity transmission corridors into Beijing and green hydrogen pipeline transportation, and conducted discussions and exchanges on deepening cooperation. China Huadian Corporation Ltd. : Party Secretary and Chairman Jiang Yi held talks in Baotou with Chen Zhichang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Party Committee and Party Secretary of the Baotou Municipal Party Committee, and Meng Qingwei, Deputy Party Secretary and Mayor. The two sides exchanged views on further deepening cooperation between central enterprises and local governments. CIMC Enric Holdings Limited​​​​​​​: Formally signed the Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement in Jakarta with PT SAMATOR Group, an Indonesian provider of industrial gases and energy solutions. Based on their deep accumulation in energy equipment, industrial gases, and clean energy, the two sides reached a consensus on long-term strategic cooperation. Zhizi Automobile Technology Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​: Completed a Series B financing of several hundred million yuan, with investors including Shengshi Juxin, Guoxin Venture Capital, Hebei Industrial Investment, Green Era, Youda Shangrong, the Private Economy Fund, Huoshui Capital, and Huitou Zhizao. The funds will mainly be used for R&D of core technologies such as intelligent driving and autonomous driving, replenishment of working capital, and global market expansion. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested service life of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. Xi’an Jiaotong University and a Peking University team jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of AEM water electrolysis for hydrogen production, supporting the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen. 2. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum-group metals and ionomers from PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 3. Relevant research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the National Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment Materials successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF seawater electrolysis bifunctional electrocatalyst. 4.《Technical Specification for Wind and Solar Power + ESS Coupled Green Electricity Electrolysis Hydrogen Production (No. T/CIEP 0272—2025), a group standard, was issued and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully conducted R&D of a 100 kW-class PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test device. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced that it had developed a new-generation high performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.

》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo On June 13, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$44.75/dmt, a decrease of $1.46/dmt from the previous -$43.29/dmt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. Trading activity in the copper concentrate spot market was sluggish during the week. A trader offered 10,000 mt of clean ore from Peru to a smelter at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. A smelter had previously purchased 20,000 mt of Caserones and Centinela copper concentrates from a large trader under an index-linked settlement model, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. During the week, a trader offered 10,000 mt of bundled clean ore to a smelter at a high -$40s/dmt price, with a loading period in July. The gold payable was fully priced after a deduction of 0.3 for gold content below 1 gram. According to market rumors, a large trader offered copper concentrates to two leading domestic smelters, with a total volume of 300,000 mt of ore (long-term contract + spot cargo) at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in H2. According to SMM, most Chinese smelters participating in long-term contract negotiations have not yet received a second-round long-term contract offer from Antofagasta. However, one smelter has already responded with a positive single-digit high offer. Japanese smelters have also not initiated a second-round long-term contract offer. They are adhering to the pricing stance since CESCO at the end of last year, insisting on a long-term contract price of $20/30, otherwise, their production and operation will face losses. Ivanhoe Mines announced its latest 2025 production guidance for copper from the Kamoa-Kakula mine, which is 370,000-420,000 mt in metal content, a decrease of 28% from the 520,000-580,000 mt in metal content guidance released at the beginning of the year, mainly due to the earthquake that previously hit the Kakula copper mine. Sinomine Resource Group announced that due to the rapid expansion of global copper smelting capacity, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate supply, its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. In 2024, Sinomine Resource Group acquired the Tsumeb smelter. This smelter is one of the few facilities globally capable of processing copper concentrates containing arsenic and lead, with an annual processing capacity of 240,000 mt of copper concentrates. The SMM copper concentrate inventory at nine ports was 812,800 mt on June 13, an increase of 65,500 mt from the previous period. The main increase came from Qingdao Port, where copper concentrate inventory increased by 40,000 mt WoW this week. 》Check SMM metal industry chain database

The port and shipping sector once again defied the market downturn today, attracting significant attention. As of the time of writing, SITC International Holdings Co., Ltd. (01308.HK) surged by over 5%, while T.S. Lines Limited (02510.HK) rose by more than 4%. Other stocks, including COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd. (02866.HK), Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. (06198.HK), and COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. (01919.HK), also followed suit with gains. On the news front, due to concerns over the uncertainty of tariff risks, there has been a concentrated surge in demand for rush shipments in recent times, which has been beneficial for the shipping sector's prosperity. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) for the Europe route stood at 1,622.81 points, marking a 29.5% increase compared to the previous period. Additionally, news from the Ningbo Shipping Exchange indicates that the South America East Coast route market experienced significant fluctuations last week: there was a substantial shortage of shipping capacity, leading to persistent tightness in cargo space and a continued rise in freight rates. The freight rate index for the South America East Coast route reached 2,324.2 points, up 43.7% from the previous week. Furthermore, data from the General Administration of Customs show that China's exports in May, valued in US dollars, increased by 4.8% YoY, continuing to demonstrate resilience. In a research report issued on June 9, Guosheng Securities stated that while the decline in exports to the US widened in May, exports to the EU increased, and exports to emerging markets remained at a high level. Specifically, exports to ASEAN increased by 14.8% YoY, with exports to Vietnam surging by 22.0% YoY, reflecting a clear re-exporting trend. Guosen Securities also noted that the resilience of exports in May was mainly driven by positive factors such as the marginal strengthening of exports to non-US countries and the upward trend in export growth rates for products like integrated circuits and automobiles, indicating improvements in both the geographical distribution of trade and the composition of exported products.

According to MiningWeekly, research and consulting firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) has maintained its iron ore price forecast for this year at $100/mt, as it expects falling demand to drive prices down. Although the easing of trade conflicts has provided some support for iron ore, BMI believes there is still a possibility of a decline in steel production, so the risks for iron ore have not diminished. On May 6, the price of 62% Fe iron ore at Qingdao Port was $94.70/mt, with an average price of $96.50/mt since the beginning of the year. Although iron ore prices remained relatively resilient at the start of 2025 and reached a high for the year of $102.90/mt on February 21, they remained below $100/mt in March and April. Despite a brief rebound in iron ore prices stimulated by supply disruptions caused by severe weather, the optimism did not last. The decline in growth rates of major global economies and the intensification of trade conflicts have shifted market sentiment. Falling steel production and a sluggish real estate market are the main factors contributing to the decline in iron ore prices, BMI said. Iron ore prices are susceptible to stimulus policies, and negotiations on trade agreements among major economies can help alleviate downward pressure on iron ore prices. According to data from the World Steel Association, global crude steel production fell by 0.4% YoY in Q1. India and Brazil saw increases in crude steel production of 6.8% and 2.8%, respectively, while China, a major consumer of iron ore, saw an increase of 0.6% in crude steel production. Supply From the supply side, BMI expects major iron ore producing regions to remain stable, which will put pressure on iron ore prices to rise. Production and exports from major iron ore miners are expected to grow or remain largely stable. Despite the impact of severe weather at the beginning of the year, miners still aim to maintain production levels. In particular, Vale's iron ore production in Q1 fell by 4.5% YoY, but the miner still maintained its production target for 2025 at 325-335 million mt, compared to 328 million mt in 2024. Although Rio Tinto's shipments in Q1 fell by 9% YoY, the company still maintained its full-year production forecast of 323-338 million mt. In contrast, BHP expects its iron ore production in the first nine months of FY2025 to increase by 1% to 193 million mt, with full-year production expected to be in the range of 255-265 million mt, compared to a record 260 million mt in FY2024. In the first nine months of FY2025, Fortescue's iron ore production increased slightly to 143 million mt, and the company expects full-year production to be in the range of 190-200 million mt, compared to 191 million mt in FY2024. Outlook In the long term, iron ore prices are expected to show a downward trend, projected to fall from $100/mt in 2025 to $78/mt in 2034. BMI stated that the contraction in steel production and the growth in iron ore production will lead to a sluggish market.

》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo On May 16, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$43.05/dmt, up slightly by $0.06/dmt from the previous -$43.11/dmt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. Recently, there have been frequent spot cargo tender and bid activities for copper concentrates: Last weekend, a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore to a smelter at a mid-to-low price of -$40/dmt, with a loading period in June and a QP of M+1/5; a trader sold less than 20,000 mt of a mixed cargo of dry bulk and containers to a smelter at a mid-to-high price of -$30/dmt, with a loading period in June and a QP of M+1/5; a trader sold 20,000-30,000 mt of bundled ore to a smelter at a low price of -$40/dmt, with a QP of M+1/5; a tender for 10,000 mt of Bisha copper mine was held, with a loading period in late June, and the tender closed early this week; BHP began a tender for 10,000 mt of Escondida, with a closing date of May 20; Ilo smelter, a subsidiary of SPCC, was affected by maintenance activities in June-July, and tenders were held for multiple batches of Cuajone and Toquepala copper concentrates, with 10,000 mt tendered each in June, July, and August, and a closing date of May 21; Anglo American announced tender results, with 20,000 mt of clean ore priced at -$80/dmt for loading in H2 2025 and 20,000 mt priced at -$40/dmt for loading in Q1 2026. Codelco stated that it would work with Rio Tinto to jointly develop the Nuevo Cobre copper mine project in the Atacama region of northern Chile, adjacent to the San Antonio mine area. Codelco holds a 43% stake in the Nuevo Cobre project, while Rio Tinto holds a 58% stake. Ivanhoe Mine announced that its latest exploration results at the Makoko mine area in the DRC showed that the copper resource base had nearly doubled compared to a year and a half ago. The current copper reserves in the area totaled 9.37 million mt, an 89% increase from the estimated 5 million mt announced in November 2023. Antofagasta Mining Company stated that its Zaldivar copper mine in Chile had received environmental approval from local authorities to continue operating with existing water sources until 2028. On May 16, the SMM copper concentrate inventory at nine ports was 819,700 mt, a decrease of 80,600 mt from the previous period, with the main reduction coming from Qingdao Port. This week, the copper concentrate inventory at Qingdao Port decreased by 40,000 mt WoW. 》Check the SMM metal industry chain database

Driven by the significant positive developments in the new round of China-US trade negotiations, the shipping sector of the Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend. As of press time, COSCO SHIPPING Development (02866.HK) rose by 3.67%, COSCO SHIPPING Ports (01199.HK) rose by 2.47%, and Qingdao Port (06198.HK) rose by 1.45%. Note: Performance of shipping stocks Meanwhile, CIMC Group (02039.HK), a global leader in containers, naturally benefited from this. Its intraday gain once exceeded 10%. It is worth noting that the group's stock price rose by 30% from April 9 to May 14. As of press time, CIMC Group rose by 4.29% to HKD 5.84. Note: Recent performance of CIMC Group Policy Easing Boosts Shipping In terms of news, on May 12, China and the US reached an agreement through talks in Geneva. The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% within 90 days, and China will also reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. Subsequently, both China and the US adjusted relevant tariffs in recent days. Against this backdrop, US importers significantly increased their import orders from China this week. Data from multiple shipping companies and industry tracking showed that China's freight volume to the US has rebounded significantly. The global shipping digital platform Vizion disclosed shocking data: Within seven days after the agreement was reached, container bookings on the China-US route surged by 277%, from 5,709 TEUs to 21,530 TEUs. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd confirmed that its cabin bookings on the US-China route surged by 50% in three days. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen bluntly stated that "ship cabin space is about to sell out." Ryan Petersen, the founder of Flexport, even issued an urgent warning on social media: On the first day, ocean freight orders surged by 35%, and the crisis of port congestion loomed. Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain at ITS Logistics, a logistics company, said, "My clients have pre-loaded thousands of containers in China, ready for shipment." He expects a further surge in container shipping volume in the next four to six weeks. Goldman Sachs analysis pointed out that US importers, in order to seize the golden window of the 30% tariff, are launching an unprecedented stockpiling wave. China's export data may hit a record in Q3.

Preview: The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and other departments will make announcements at 9 a.m. on the 7th, introducing the relevant situation of "a package of financial policies to support market stability and stabilize expectations.

[SMM Monthly Shipping Data: Global Shipments Drop Significantly in April, While Port Arrivals Increase Slightly] In April 2025, SMM reported that the total global iron ore shipments reached 136.762 million mt, showing a slight decline of 9.4% MoM. Among them, South Africa and other non-mainstream countries experienced a significant drop, with South Africa's shipments decreasing by 14.5% MoM from March. Australia's shipments fell by 9.3%, while Brazil's shipments declined by a relatively small 4.5%. On a YoY basis, only Brazil's shipments increased, by 6.5%. Other countries saw a slight decline. In April 2025, SMM reported that China's total iron ore port arrivals reached 104.507 million mt, with a slight increase of 0.8% MoM. Ports with significant increases included Bayuquan Port and Jingtang Port. Ports with larger declines were Qingdao Port and Tianjin Xingang Port. On a YoY basis, port arrivals continued to decline slightly by 2.6%.