Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, edged down slightly during Asian hours before fluctuating higher, hit a high of $2,001.5/mt in the European session, after which overhead selling pressure was released and the market quickly turned downward, dipping to $1,975/mt during the session. Prices corrected slightly in late trading and finally settled at $1,981/mt, down $7.5/mt or 0.38%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,190 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices saw a slight correction, then short-term buying pushed prices slightly higher to a session high of 16,195 yuan/mt. After the high, bulls lacked follow-through, bears gradually took control, and futures fluctuated downward, with prices moving lower in steps to 16,075 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,095 yuan/mt, posting a five-day losing streak, down 75 yuan/mt or 0.46%. On the macro front: The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran over a helicopter incident, and Iran said it would respond resolutely. Trump: May participate in rebuilding Iran, but wants half the oil. Vance: A deal could be reached in the near term, but “definitely” before the midterm elections. U.S. media disclosed four major topics in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. The EU plans to unveil its 21st round of sanctions against Russia. According to Nikkei: The Bank of Japan plans to raise rates to 1% at its June meeting. China's goods trade imports and exports grew 15.3% in the first five months. The U.S. added Alibaba, BYD, and others to its “military-related” list. Foreign Ministry: Urges the U.S. to stop unreasonable suppression of Chinese companies. Spot Fundamentals: In the morning, SHFE lead tumbled sharply, nearing the 16,000 mark. Suppliers diverged in their selling strategies, with a few still offering at discounts while most narrowed their discount quotes. In particular, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, with some only selling under long-term contracts. Mainstream primary lead smelters offered electrolytic lead at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price EXW. In the secondary lead sector, smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, with most halting shipments. Some secondary refined lead was offered at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead EXW, resulting in an inverted relationship with primary lead. Downstream enterprises’ rigid demand favored the primary lead market, mainly sourcing cargoes self-picked up from production sites. The market saw both wait-and-see sentiment and dip-buying. Inventory: As of June 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,200 mt to 308,050 mt. As of June 8, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions stood at 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Demand side, end-use consumption is weak, peak-season recovery fell short of expectations, and downstream stockpiling remains cautious. On the lead ingot inventory front, destocking has been weak and has gradually stabilized, while expectations of inventory buildup are intensifying. On the sentiment front, the most-traded SHFE lead contract has posted five consecutive losses, with short positions gradually increasing and bearish sentiment gaining the upper hand in the short term. However, amid the persistent decline in lead prices, secondary lead smelters, facing losses, are holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Coupled with cost support from scrap batteries below, the downside room for lead prices finds some phased support.

SMM, June 9: In the day's session, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,205 yuan/mt, came under overall pressure and weakened after the open, fluctuated downward in morning trading to hit a low of 16,055 yuan/mt, then moved sideways at low levels around the 16,055–16,100 yuan/mt range. In the afternoon, it rebounded slightly with small fluctuations and closed at 16,170 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 170 yuan/mt, or 1.04%, for the day. The current decline in lead prices is mainly under dual pressure from increased supply from secondary and primary lead smelters and the off-season for lead-acid battery consumption. Downstream participants maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment, mostly purchasing as needed at lower prices. Meanwhile, social inventory of lead ingots shows a slight destocking trend, and coupled with tightening inventory of scrap battery raw materials for secondary lead, the cost side provides some support for prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Data source statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, briefly surged to $1,992/mt (the highest price) in Asian trading before pulling back under pressure; during European trading, although there was a slight recovery, resistance was notable and it fluctuated downward again, touching a low of $1,987.5/mt, eventually closing at $1,988/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.03%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,300 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward under pressure, touching a low of 16,155 yuan/mt before rebounding slightly, moving sideways in the 16,170-16,205 yuan/mt range, and ultimately closing at 16,180 yuan/mt, recording a four-day losing streak, down 160 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.98%. On the macro front: Israel and Iran exchanged fire for the first time since April, and after Trump intervened, both countries announced a temporary halt to attacks. U.S. media: Trump warned Netanyahu that if he wages war with Iran again, he may find himself fighting alone. Iran's UN representative: hopes that the US-Iran negotiations will reach an agreement by the end of June. South Korean regulatory authorities will review speculative won trading. OpenAI disclosed it has secretly filed for an IPO. The CPC Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration held an enlarged meeting: to steadily promote the resolution of risks at local small and medium-sized financial institutions and deeply rectify disorderly competition in the financial sector. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, suppliers sold as they saw fit, premiums and discounts quoted yesterday were stable compared to last Friday, and primary lead smelter self-picked-up cargoes were ample, with mainstream production area quotations at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In the secondary lead market, smelters gradually lowered scrap battery purchase prices to ease losses, some smelters resumed shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, at the same level as primary lead prices. However, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement and mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in sluggish spot order transactions. Inventory: As of June 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,100 mt to 309,250 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's lead price forecast: Recently, operating rates at secondary lead smelters have rebounded, combined with primary lead enterprises resuming production after maintenance, leading to a continued increase in lead ingot supply. June production is expected to shift from decline to growth. However, the downstream lead-acid battery market is in its traditional off-season, with enterprises mainly making just-in-time procurement and consumption remaining sluggish. Additionally, as the delivery date approaches, invisible inventory is turning into visible inventory, further intensifying inventory buildup pressure. Cost side, amid weakening lead prices, secondary lead enterprises proactively lowered scrap battery purchasing prices, weakening support; however, scrap battery raw materials still had bottom support, and coupled with strong sentiment of holding back from selling at low prices among smelters amid widening losses in secondary lead, this still provided some floor to lead prices, limiting the room for deep price declines.

This week (May 29, 2026 – June 4, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 66.58%, up 3.6 percentage points WoW. This week, a large smelter in Henan completed maintenance and resumed production, driving the regional operating rate to rise. In Hunan, a small-to-medium-sized smelter underwent maintenance shutdown last week, with output contracting this week. However, production at other enterprises in the region edged up slightly, with supply and demand factors offsetting each other, and the overall operating rate in Hunan edged up. In Yunnan, smelter production remained stable, with operating rates maintained at last week's level. Smelters in other regions operated normally, with operating rates flat WoW.

It is reported that as of June 4, the in-factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands stood at 15,800 mt, an increase of 3,500 mt WoW. During the week, in major production areas, primary lead smelters resumed production after maintenance, leading to an increase in lead ingot supply. In the first half of the week, lead prices held up well, which dampened the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises, and coupled with the incremental supply of secondary lead as a substitute, finished product inventories at primary lead enterprises shifted to an uptrend. Meanwhile, in the second half of the week, lead prices reversed course and declined. Some downstream enterprises sought to buy the dip, and market trading activity improved slightly. However, some primary lead enterprises suspended shipments, holding back from selling due to low prices, and the inventory increase remained unchanged.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Rising Risk of Lead Ingot Inventory Buildup in China, Lead Prices May Remain in the Doldrums] US Fed official: the current choice is between maintaining patience or raising interest rates, inflation is the top economic risk, and AI has not yet had an impact. Recently, primary lead and secondary lead enterprises in Henan, Anhui, and other regions have resumed production collectively, increasing lead ingot supply...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Divergent Fundamentals in and outside China, LME Outperforms SHFE] Recently, news on the progress of US-Iran negotiations has been mixed, and macro uncertainties persist. Meanwhile, the fundamental markets in and outside China also show significant divergence...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Supply Recovery VS Tight Raw Materials, Lead Prices May Continue to Consolidate] The U.S.-Iran ceasefire and peace talks continued to advance, but considerable uncertainties remained, and risk-averse sentiment was strong in the market. Production at China's primary lead and secondary lead smelters was gradually recovering...

SMM June 1 News: During the session, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,540 yuan/mt. Prices oscillated upward in the early session, then came under pressure and weakened in the afternoon, dipping to a low of 16,525 yuan/mt. The market subsequently stabilized and moved sideways within the 16,530-16,540 yuan/mt range. It closed slightly higher at 16,560 yuan/mt, with a % change of 0.00%. On the supply side, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined. Concentrated maintenance at China's primary lead smelters constrained primary lead supply, while some secondary lead smelters gradually resumed production and increased output. A slight destocking in lead ingot social inventory and the rigid cost support from scrap battery raw materials provided a floor for futures; however, downstream battery end-use consumption remained generally weak, limiting upside room. In the short term, lead prices are expected to mainly move sideways within a range. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

As of May 28, the in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 12,300 mt, down 1,100 mt WoW. This week, primary lead smelters in Henan were under maintenance, tightening lead ingot supply in major producing areas. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises purchased on demand during the lead price pullback, and in-factory inventory of primary lead smelters continued to decline. Additionally, in June, more secondary lead enterprises are expected to resume production after maintenance, while end-use consumption shows no significant signs of improvement, leaving primary lead smelter inventory still at risk of rising.