In the spot market, the price center of lead shifted slightly upward this week (April 13-17, 2026). Downstream buyers mostly made just-in-time procurement on demand and restocked on dips, with weak purchase willingness at high prices. Overall transactions in the spot market eased slightly WoW. This week, mainstream transaction prices of primary lead in Henan maintained parity or a slight discount against SMM #1 lead. Traders offered at a discount of 180-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. At the beginning of the week, smelters held back from selling at low prices, and spot orders were limited. In Hunan, prices gradually shifted from a discount to parity or a slight premium during the week, with some plants holding prices firm on shipments after their inventory was sold out. In Guangdong, suppliers maintained offers at a premium of 25-100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, with transactions supported by just-in-time procurement.

This week (April 10–16, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 63.42%, up 1.93 percentage points WoW. This week, smelters in Henan operated steadily with the operating rate unchanged from last week; production at smelters in Hunan declined slightly; a large smelter in Yunnan that had previously shut down for maintenance resumed production, lifting the regional operating rate; smelters in other regions maintained overall stable production.

SMM, April 16: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,851 yuan/mt. Boosted by macro sentiment at the start of the session, lead prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of 16,930 yuan/mt. Subsequently, weighed down by weak downstream consumption, lead prices lacked upward momentum and pulled back, ultimately closing at 16,775 yuan/mt, marking a three-day winning streak with a gain of 110 yuan/mt, or 0.66%. Persistently sluggish downstream consumption, coupled with visible inventory increases driven by primary lead deliveries, caused lead prices to encounter resistance on the upside. This week, some secondary lead enterprises cut production due to raw material shortages, tightening supply somewhat and providing certain support for lead prices. Overall, lead prices are expected to continue to move sideways in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,936.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session with a low of $1,935.5/mt, and continued to rise firmly into the European session, ultimately closing at $1,966.5/mt, up 1.65%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,745 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,860 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed at 16,840 yuan/mt, up 1.05%. Macro front: On Wednesday, Trump said the war he launched with Israel was "nearing its end," and the White House was also optimistic about reaching a deal. Bessent said the US would no longer extend sanctions exemptions on Iranian and Russian oil. Foreign media: Iran proposed allowing free passage for ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. China's Ministry of Commerce: Since the beginning of this year, trade-in sales of consumer goods exceeded 500 billion yuan. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US maintained communication on US President Trump's visit to China. The PBOC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: The overseas lending leverage ratio for wholly foreign-owned banks in China, Sino-foreign joint venture banks in China, and branches of foreign banks in China was raised from 0.5 to 1.5. : Yesterday, SHFE lead showed a fluctuating upward trend. Suppliers had slight divergences in shipments—some maintained discounts for shipments, while others quoted relatively firmly as delivery inventory pressure eased. Mainstream origin quotes were at -25 yuan/mt to +100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters concentrated on production cuts and suspensions, with regional supply limited. After lead prices rose, smelters showed slightly better shipment sentiment. Secondary refined lead was quoted at -25 yuan/mt to +25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, and some shifted to a wait-and-see attitude yesterday after purchasing on dips the previous day, leading to decreased trading activity in the spot market. Inventory: On April 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 875 mt to 275,975 mt. As of April 13, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory edged up. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Supply and demand in the spot lead market were both tepid. Downstream battery producers had poor orders, and enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement was weak. Primary lead smelters maintained relatively stable production, but secondary lead enterprises saw declining operating rates due to loss pressure. In addition, overseas geopolitical issues persisted and remained volatile. If a ceasefire between the US and Iran is successfully reached, it is expected to have a positive impact on base metals; otherwise, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,927/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $1,941.5/mt during the Asian session; it first declined then rose during the European session, ultimately closing at $1,934.5/mt, up 0.34%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened high at 16,655 yuan/mt. After bulls reduced positions, SHFE lead moved sideways around the 16,620 yuan/mt level, hitting a low of 16,595 yuan/mt during the session, and ultimately closed at 16,640 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. On the macro front: On Tuesday, US President Trump stated that negotiations might resume in Pakistan in the next two days after talks broke down last weekend; Pakistani and Iranian officials also indicated that negotiations could restart, with the agenda including the critical Strait of Hormuz transit as well as Iran's nuclear activities and international sanctions. The US March PPI annual rate came in at 4%, below market expectations of 4.6%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US should "wait and see" before cutting interest rates, and that recent inflation would not become embedded in expectations. Tariffs could return to previous levels by early July. Russian media: Russia imposed temporary export restrictions on helium and was considering imposing excise taxes on imported steel. In Q1 2026, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 11.84 trillion yuan, exceeding 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period historically, up 15% YoY. : SHFE lead relatively rebounded after stopping its decline, but as delivery was imminent, some suppliers waited for delivery, and few warrant cargoes were quoted. For primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, suppliers quoted in line with the market, and discounts narrowed further compared to yesterday. Mainstream production areas were quoted at premiums of -30~+75 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, more secondary lead enterprises in east China cut or halted production, tightening circulating supply in the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. After lead prices stopped falling, downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with moderate purchasing enthusiasm. Moreover, as secondary lead was in short supply and priced high, rigid demand leaned more toward primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, and spot market transactions improved. Inventory: On April 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 475 mt to 276,850 mt; as of April 13, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions edged up slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Today, the SHFE lead 2604 contract entered delivery. Suppliers transferred and shipped to delivery warehouses, with some social warehouses seeing notable increases. Overall inventory has once again surpassed the 60,000 mt threshold. Recently, the lead-acid battery market entered the off-season for consumption, and downstream enterprise purchasing demand weakened. Meanwhile, due to losses, some medium-to-large secondary lead enterprises in east China successively commenced planned maintenance. Under expectations of declining supply and demand, upward pressure on lead prices persists in the short term. Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,919/mt, fluctuated downward to a low of $1,913/mt during the Asian session; it rebounded during the European session, reaching a high of $1,931/mt near the close, and finally settled at $1,928/mt, down 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,600 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward to a low of 16,545 yuan/mt after the opening, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, finally settling at a high of 16,610 yuan/mt, up 0.24%. On the macro front: On Monday, Trump said Iran wanted to reach a deal, after the US responded to the collapse of weekend peace talks by blockading Iranian ports. US Fed's Goolsbee: if oil prices stay at $90 per barrel for several consecutive months, it will start to pass through to other prices. Von der Leyen: the European Commission will unveil an energy price measures proposal on April 22 and plans to propose lower energy taxes in May. OPEC crude oil production in March fell by 7.88 million barrels per day to 20.79 million barrels per day, the largest single-month decline since data became available in the 1980s. Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs if China supplied weapons to Iran. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: there are no winners in a tariff war. The People's Bank of China: the outstanding aggregate social financing stood at 456.46 trillion yuan at the end of March, up 7.9% YoY. At the end of March, broad money (M2) balance was 353.86 trillion yuan, up 8.5% YoY. : SHFE lead's decline widened compared to last Friday. Some suppliers held prices firm while shipping, raising quoted premiums. Cargoes of primary lead self-picked up from production sites also saw narrowed discounts. Mainstream production areas quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions quoting at premiums of 100 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, smelters held back from selling at low prices, and discounted cargoes decreased notably. Secondary refined lead was quoted at around parity against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with some quoted at premiums of 25-75 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises showed relatively improved purchasing enthusiasm, with more inquiries. Some purchased on demand at lower prices, and spot market transactions improved regionally. Inventory: on April 13, LME lead inventory decreased by 900 mt to 277,325 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions edged up. Lead Price Forecast for Today: In April, the lead-acid battery market entered the traditional consumption off-season, with some medium and large enterprises announcing production cut plans, weakening procurement demand for lead ingots. Meanwhile, this week entered the delivery week, and lead ingot social warehouse inventory increased WoW; coupled with continued inflows of imported lead ingots into China in April, market circulating supply was ample, which was bearish for lead prices. Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, touched a high of $1,998.5/mt during the Asian session before moving downward; during the European session, it first rose then fell, with a late-session dive to a low of $1,970/mt, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down 0.53%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt in early trading before weakening, touched a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in late trading, and ultimately closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. On the macro front: Last Friday, the market awaited the results of US-Iran negotiations, and Israel had sought to negotiate with Lebanon, which brought hope for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US would not allow Iran to make money by selling oil. An Iranian oil ministry official said the damaged refineries were expected to restore at least 70% of their previous capacity within one to two months. Li Qiang chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs. The second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds this year to support trade-in policies for consumer goods was recently disbursed. NBS: CPI rose 1.0% YoY in March, and PPI turned from a YoY decline to an increase. Shanghai Stock Exchange: the price change limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board was adjusted from 5% to 10%. : In the Shanghai market, Hongli lead was quoted at 16,700-16,800 yuan/mt, quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. Last Friday, SHFE lead continued to fluctuate downward, and due to limited circulating cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Meanwhile, quotations for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were chaotic, with large price spreads between high and low prices in north China, while south China generally shipped at discounts. Mainstream production areas quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters shipped following the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, among which tax-exclusive cargoes saw more shipments than tax-inclusive ones. In addition, downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment with few inquiries, and some made just-in-time procurement. The spot market showed no signs of improvement in transactions for the time being. Inventory: On April 10, LME lead inventory decreased by 550 mt to 278,225 mt. As of April 9, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory pulled back slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Weakening lead consumption in China and inflows of imported lead became the main factors dragging down lead prices. As SHFE lead enters the delivery week, suppliers are transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, converting it into visible inventory, and lead prices may come under pressure and weaken. At the same time, we need to monitor whether secondary lead enterprises fulfill their maintenance plans. If production cuts proceed as scheduled, lead prices may have the possibility of bottoming out and rebounding. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

In the spot market, this week (March 30 - April 3, 2026), as delivery approached, downstream consumption remained sluggish and wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Multiple smelters lowered their spot premium quotes, and suppliers continued to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. This week, mainstream transaction prices of primary lead in Henan maintained parity or slight discounts against SMM #1 lead, with some suppliers quoting discounts of 200-180 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract, while a few suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling. Toward the weekend, smelters in Hunan gradually shifted to discount quotes, and smelters in Guangdong slightly lowered their SMM #1 lead premiums to 0-50 yuan/mt, with transactions driven by rigid demand.

This week (April 3, 2026 - April 9, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters across the three provinces was 61.48%, down 0.57 percentage points WoW. This week, a small-scale smelter in Henan that had previously shut down for maintenance resumed production, and the operating rate in Henan edged up. In Hunan, after smelters maintained stable operations, some plants marginally increased output. In Yunnan, smelter maintenance and resumption coexisted, and the operating rate in Yunnan registered negative growth this week. Smelters in other regions maintained stable production for the time being. A smelter in east China mentioned expectations of possible maintenance in May, but the specific plan has not yet been confirmed. SMM will continue to monitor the situation.

As of April 10, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 19,700 mt, an increase of approximately 3,000 mt WoW. This week, lead prices held up well, with SHFE lead once approaching 16,900 yuan/mt. Suppliers actively made shipments, and primary lead smelters in south China switched to shipping at discounts. Spot order quotations were quoted at premiums of approximately -50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. However, after lead prices rose, downstream enterprises showed notably weakened enthusiasm to purchase. Apart from just-in-time procurement, they made no additional purchases. Smelters faced increasing difficulty in making shipments, leading to a buildup in in-factory inventory. In addition, next week is the delivery week for the SHFE lead 2605 contract, and some suppliers intend to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. It is expected that smelters' inventory pressure will ease relatively going forward.