Mercedes-Benz and Norsk Hydro have expanded their long-term partnership to accelerate the use of recycled aluminium in Europe. Under the agreement, Mercedes-Benz will become the first European automaker to use Hydro CIRCAL in serial production for its next-generation large electric vehicles. The material contains at least 75% post-consumer recycled (PCR) aluminium, up from the previous minimum of 25%. The companies will also expand the use of Hydro REDUXA low-carbon primary aluminium, aiming to reduce emissions, strengthen regional supply chains, and support circularity across the automotive value chain.

Following the start of the definitive phase of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, differences in country-specific default values , default production routes and corresponding benchmarks have begun to translate into significantly different theoretical certificate exposures for unwrought aluminium. SMM analysed EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins and matched the trade data with the 2026 default value, default production route and CBAM benchmark assigned to each origin. The theoretical unit certificate exposure in this analysis is calculated as: 2026 theoretical unit certificate exposure = 2026 default value − benchmark × 97.5% × cross-sectoral correction factor The cross-sectoral correction factor, or CSCF, is provisionally assumed to be 1. The calculation does not deduct any qualifying carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin. The results therefore indicate the relative CBAM exposure of different origins under the default-value scenario. They do not represent the final number of certificates that EU importers will be required to surrender or the final monetary cost. EU-27 unwrought aluminium imports rose 7.0% in 2025 According to SMM calculations, EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins reached approximately 7.63 million tonnes in 2025 , up from 7.13 million tonnes in 2024. This represented an increase of about 502,200 tonnes, or 7.0% year on year . Of the 2025 total, approximately 4.56 million tonnes originated from countries subject to CBAM, accounting for 59.7% of total imports. Imports from CBAM-exempt origins, including Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, amounted to approximately 3.05 million tonnes , representing around 40.0% of the total. A further 25,800 tonnes were recorded without a specified origin and were excluded from the country-level exposure ranking. Applying the 2026 default values and benchmarks to the 2025 trade structure produces an estimated theoretical certificate exposure of approximately 4.09 million tCO₂e for imports from CBAM-covered origins. The trade-weighted average unit exposure was approximately 0.898 tCO₂e per tonne of product . As 2025 remained within the CBAM transitional period, these figures are scenario-based estimates using 2025 trade volumes and the 2026 calculation rules. They do not represent actual certificate obligations for 2025. Primary aluminium route accounted for more than 99% of theoretical exposure The primary aluminium route dominated both CBAM-covered import volumes and theoretical certificate exposure. In 2025, imports assigned to the primary aluminium route totalled approximately 4.46 million tonnes , accounting for 97.8% of imports from CBAM-covered origins. Their theoretical certificate exposure reached approximately 4.06 million tCO₂e , representing 99.3% of the total exposure. The trade-weighted average unit exposure for the primary aluminium route was approximately 0.912 tCO₂e per tonne of product . By comparison, imports assigned to the secondary aluminium route amounted to approximately 99,500 tonnes, or 2.2% of CBAM-covered imports. Their theoretical certificate exposure was approximately 30,600 tCO₂e, with an average unit exposure of around 0.307 tCO₂e per tonne . The gap between the two routes reflects differences in both country default values and the applicable benchmarks. For HS/CN 7601, the benchmark used for the primary aluminium route is 1.423 tCO₂e per tonne , compared with 0.091 tCO₂e per tonne for the secondary aluminium route. This means that, under a default-value declaration scenario, the theoretical CBAM exposure of EU-27 unwrought aluminium imports remains highly concentrated in primary aluminium supply. Mozambique recorded the highest unit exposure, with China also ranking near the top The results show a clear divergence in theoretical unit exposure among origin countries. Mozambique recorded the highest unit exposure among major origins with a country-specific default value, at approximately 2.130 tCO₂e per tonne of product . China followed at approximately 1.913 tCO₂e per tonne , placing it among the origins with the highest default-value-based unit exposure. South Africa recorded an estimated unit exposure of approximately 1.207 tCO₂e per tonne , followed by Russia at 0.989 tCO₂e and Canada at 0.769 tCO₂e. Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, India, the United Kingdom, Egypt and Kazakhstan share similar default values under the primary aluminium route, resulting in unit exposure of approximately 0.670 tCO₂e per tonne . Australia, Brazil, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States recorded unit exposure of approximately 0.483 tCO₂e per tonne . Origins assigned to the secondary aluminium route generally recorded approximately 0.307 tCO₂e per tonne . A high unit exposure does not necessarily mean that an origin faces the greatest aggregate impact. Total exposure also depends on the volume of trade with the EU-27. China illustrates this distinction. EU-27 imports of HS/CN 7601 products from China reached approximately 12,400 tonnes in 2025 , up 24.3% year on year. This corresponded to theoretical certificate exposure of about 23,700 tCO₂e . China therefore ranked near the top on a unit basis, but its comparatively limited shipment volume to the EU-27 kept its aggregate exposure well below that of Mozambique, Canada and several major Gulf suppliers. Mozambique’s total theoretical exposure reached 1.34 million tCO₂e After incorporating 2025 import volumes, Mozambique emerged as the origin with the highest aggregate theoretical certificate exposure. EU-27 imports from Mozambique reached approximately 628,000 tonnes in 2025 , up 17.5% year on year. Based on unit exposure of 2.130 tCO₂e per tonne, its total theoretical exposure was approximately 1.34 million tCO₂e . Mozambique alone accounted for 32.7% of the theoretical exposure associated with CBAM-covered origins. However, the above total exposure is a static estimate based on 2025 trade volumes. Power supply constraints may limit Mozambique’s aluminium smelting capacity and output in 2026–2027, potentially reducing its exports to the EU. As a result, its actual near-term aggregate CBAM exposure may not reach the theoretical level estimated using 2025 trade volumes. Canada supplied approximately 682,800 tonnes to the EU-27 in 2025. Although its unit exposure was considerably lower than Mozambique’s, its larger trade volume lifted its aggregate theoretical exposure to approximately 524,800 tCO₂e , equivalent to 12.8% of the total. Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and South Africa recorded theoretical total exposures of approximately 350,900 tCO₂e, 329,300 tCO₂e, 322,200 tCO₂e and 263,600 tCO₂e, respectively. Mozambique, Canada, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and South Africa together accounted for approximately 76.4% of total theoretical certificate exposure. Mozambique’s position was driven by the combination of a high unit default-value exposure and substantial trade volume. Canada’s unit exposure was not among the very highest, but its large and rapidly increasing export volume significantly amplified its aggregate impact. Four-quadrant analysis places China in the “high intensity, low trade volume” category A four-quadrant analysis using 2025 EU-27 import volume on the horizontal axis and 2026 theoretical unit certificate exposure on the vertical axis provides a clearer view of the combined influence of carbon intensity and trade scale. The core high-exposure quadrant includes Mozambique, Canada, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, South Africa, India and the United Kingdom. These origins combine comparatively large trade volumes with relatively high unit exposure and are the main contributors to aggregate CBAM exposure for EU-27 unwrought aluminium imports. China is the most prominent origin in the high intensity, low trade volume quadrant . Its theoretical unit exposure of approximately 1.913 tCO₂e per tonne is second only to Mozambique, but its current export volume to the EU-27 remains comparatively limited. Ukraine and South Korea are among the origins in the trade-volume-driven quadrant . Both are assigned to the secondary aluminium route and have relatively low unit exposure, but their larger trade volumes increase their aggregate exposure compared with other secondary-route origins. Vietnam, Morocco, Serbia, Bolivia and Mexico are among the origins in the low-exposure quadrant , reflecting both lower unit exposure and limited trade volumes. For Vietnam, HS/CN 7601 unwrought aluminium is assigned to the secondary aluminium default route, resulting in theoretical unit certificate exposure of approximately 0.307 tCO₂e per tonne in 2026, significantly below that of most origins assigned to the primary aluminium route. EU-27 imports from Vietnam amounted to approximately 7,100 tonnes in 2025, down around 27.1% year on year, corresponding to theoretical total certificate exposure of about 2,200 tCO₂e. Vietnam’s overall CBAM exposure therefore remains relatively limited at present. However, should its exports to the EU expand in the future, access to and verification of actual emissions data will remain an important factor affecting the relative competitiveness of Vietnamese products. The quadrant thresholds are analytical dividing lines based on the median values of CBAM-covered origins with actual trade. They do not represent regulatory thresholds set by the EU. Theoretical exposure reached approximately 642,400 tCO₂e in Q1 2026 In the first quarter of 2026, EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins reached approximately 1.52 million tonnes , with a total import value of around €4.36 billion . The average import value was approximately €2,873 per tonne . Imports from CBAM-covered origins amounted to approximately 782,800 tonnes , accounting for 51.6% of total imports. Imports from CBAM-exempt origins reached around 733,000 tonnes, or 48.4%. Based on the 2026 default values and benchmarks, imports from CBAM-covered origins generated theoretical certificate exposure of approximately 642,400 tCO₂e during the quarter. Mozambique remained the largest contributor, with theoretical exposure of around 150,500 tCO₂e. Canada followed with approximately 86,800 tCO₂e, the United Arab Emirates with 82,100 tCO₂e, Bahrain with 63,400 tCO₂e and South Africa with 56,200 tCO₂e. As the analysis does not include Q1 2025 comparison data, no year-on-year conclusion has been drawn for Q1 2026 import volumes or exposure. The quarterly figures are used primarily to illustrate the origin structure during the initial stage of the definitive CBAM period. Access to and verification of actual emissions data could become an important competitiveness factor Country default values are fallback parameters applied when producers are unable to provide actual emissions data that meet EU requirements. They do not necessarily reflect the actual carbon intensity of a specific producer or shipment. For origins with relatively high default-value exposure, including China, Mozambique, South Africa and Russia, producers whose actual embedded emissions are materially lower than the applicable country default value could reduce the certificate exposure faced by EU importers by establishing robust emissions-monitoring systems and providing complete, verified emissions data. Conversely, where suppliers are unable to provide emissions information that is complete, traceable and compliant with EU requirements, importers may have to rely on the relevant country default value. A higher default value could consequently affect supplier selection, purchase negotiations and long-term contract arrangements. The final number of certificates to be surrendered will also depend on actual embedded emissions, production-route classification, data verification and any qualifying carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin. The actual CBAM cost will additionally depend on the CBAM certificate price, which is linked to EU Emissions Trading System allowance prices. The theoretical certificate exposure calculated in this analysis should therefore not be interpreted directly as either the final certificate obligation or the final CBAM cost. Overall, the impact of CBAM on trade in HS/CN 7601 unwrought aluminium will not be determined by country default values alone. Unit certificate exposure, trade scale, actual emissions and the availability of reliable carbon data will jointly shape the competitive position of different origins and producers in the EU market. As the definitive phase progresses, differences in low-carbon production capability, emissions-data management and verification capacity are likely to become increasingly visible in procurement decisions, export competitiveness and trade flows. Data note: The trade scope covers EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins. CBAM-exempt origins, including Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, are included in total import statistics but excluded from theoretical certificate exposure. Origins without a country-specific default value are assigned the applicable value for “Other Countries and Territories.” Unspecified origins are excluded from the country ranking. Theoretical exposure does not deduct qualifying carbon prices paid in third countries. Source: EU-27 import data, EU CBAM default values and benchmarks; compiled by SMM.

US aluminium scrap recovery continued to strengthen at the start of 2026, with recycled metal production rising by double digits year on year, while primary aluminium output remained largely unchanged, according to the latest US Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Industry Survey. A total of 318,000 metric tonnes of aluminium was recovered from scrap in January 2026, up 14 per cent from the same month last year compared to 297,000 tonnes and 3 per cent higher than the revised December 2025 figure. Of the total, 179,000 metric tonnes came from new scrap and 138,000 metric tonnes from old scrap. Meanwhile, primary aluminium production totalled 58,000 tonnes during the month. Average daily output stood at 1,860 metric tonnes, unchanged from December 2025 and 1 per cent higher than January 2025.

Aluminium is often described as one of the most recyclable industrial materials, and the UK already has much of the infrastructure needed to support a circular aluminium economy. Collection systems are well established, recycling rates are strong, and remelting capacity exists across the supply chain. According to Nadine Bloxsome, CEO of the Aluminium Federation (ALFED), the challenge is no longer whether aluminium can be recycled, but whether the UK is keeping enough of the value created from that recycled material. ALFED estimates that recycling aluminium requires up to 95 per cent less energy than producing primary metal, making it an important contributor to industrial competitiveness as well as the country's net-zero ambitions. Despite this, the UK continues to rely heavily on imported primary aluminium. Around 68,000 tonnes were imported from the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia during 2025. Recent geopolitical tensions and disruptions affecting energy-intensive smelting operations in the region have highlighted the risks that come with depending on overseas supply. The UK generates large volumes of aluminium scrap every year, yet much of the material leaves the country instead of being processed locally. Aluminium scrap exports to the United States increased from around 2,000 tonnes in 2024 to more than 23,000 tonnes in 2025, while total exports under HS Code 7602 rose from about 612,000 tonnes to more than 623,000 tonnes. During the same year, the UK also imported around 90,000 tonnes of aluminium scrap, showing that the issue is not a shortage of material but where that material is processed and where its value is ultimately created.

Alvance British Aluminium is carrying out a maintenance and upgrade programme at its Lochaber Power Station to ensure reliable renewable power for its Lochaber aluminium smelter. As part of the 2026 programme, all five hydro generators will undergo inspection and refurbishment, while two additional Automatic Voltage Regulators (AVRs) will be installed under a £400,000 three-year investment plan. The upgrades are expected to enhance power reliability, support low-carbon primary aluminium production, and strengthen grid balancing services.

The Federation of All India Aluminum Utensils Manufacturers (FAIAUM) and the Cable and Conductor Manufacturers Association of India (CACMAI) have urged the government to reduce the effective 8.25% import duty on primary aluminum. The industry said high tariffs have significantly increased raw material costs, squeezed downstream manufacturers' margins and weakened the competitiveness of MSMEs producing aluminum value-added products.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Vietnam’s first primary aluminium smelter, the Dak Nong project, has achieved its first successful power delivery, enabling equipment testing, integrated commissioning and preparations for pilot production. Developed by Tran Hong Quan Metallurgy (THQ) with NFC as EPC contractor, the project has a 450,000 tpy designed capacity and is being developed in three phases: 150,000 tpy initially, 300,000 tpy in early 2027 and full 450,000 tpy capacity targeted in 2027–2028. The electrical systems were successfully energised on the first attempt, marking a key step toward trial operations.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] The cleanup of the former Columbia Falls Aluminum plant in Montana will begin after a US$57 million settlement with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The agreement funds the demolition of remaining smelter infrastructure, hazardous material removal, and long-term environmental remediation, advancing redevelopment of the idled primary aluminium smelter site while addressing decades of contamination.

CMR Green Tech expects demand from automotive, EV, construction and packaging sectors to drive long-term growth in recycled aluminium. The company said EVs use around three times more aluminium than conventional vehicles and expects recycled aluminium to grow faster than primary aluminium. Its new beverage can recycling plant is expected to reach 70–80% capacity utilisation by FY2027, with a ROCE target of 20–25% by FY2028.

Novelis said Europe’s aluminium demand is expected to rise by about 30% by 2040, driven by EVs, renewable energy, construction and packaging. While recycled aluminium has become increasingly important due to its 95% lower energy consumption than primary production, the company said recycling alone cannot meet future demand for high-performance applications such as aerospace, electrical systems and advanced automotive alloys. Novelis called for a balanced strategy combining expanded recycling with competitive low-carbon primary aluminium production.