[Geopolitical Negotiations Remain Unresolved; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process continued to face setbacks. However, the supply gap outside China and the continued drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well. Meanwhile, China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

SMM, April 20: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum imports in March 2026 were approximately 255,000 mt, up 26.5% MoM and up 14.8% YoY. From January to March 2026, domestic cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled approximately 646,000 mt, up 10.6% YoY. Domestic primary aluminum exports in March were approximately 15,000 mt, up 45.9% MoM and up 65.4% YoY. Cumulative primary aluminum exports from January to March totaled approximately 38,000 mt, up around 82.3% YoY. Domestic net primary aluminum imports in March were 240,000 mt, up 25.4% MoM and up 12.7% YoY. Cumulative net primary aluminum imports from January to March were approximately 608,000 mt, up 7.9% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Primary aluminum imports by country: In March, 82.3% of total imports came from the Russian Federation, 5.8% from India, 4.7% from Indonesia, and 4.5% from Australia. Primary aluminum imports by trade mode: From January to March, the share of primary aluminum imports under Ordinary Trade was 4.0%, 1.3%, and 1.7% respectively, down 23.6, 27.2, and 21.3 percentage points YoY respectively. LME aluminum outperformed SHFE aluminum in price trends, and the SHFE/LME price ratio declined. Imports under Ordinary Trade decreased, and it cannot be ruled out that a large volume of bonded zone cargoes will be re-exported to other countries outside China going forward. According to SMM, long-term contract imports and some previously signed import orders in March were executed as scheduled. Combined with the arrival of in-transit cargoes, primary aluminum imports stayed high. However, from the current fundamentals perspective, there was a significant primary aluminum deficit outside China, the inflection point for domestic aluminum inventory had not yet arrived, and the loss on primary aluminum imports expanded to a maximum of 852.47 yuan/mt in April. Some imported primary aluminum cargoes are expected to be redirected or re-exported to Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, and even Europe, the US, and other countries and regions. Overall, domestic net primary aluminum imports in 2026 are expected to decline YoY.

According to an announcement on Century Aluminum's official website on April 16, the first aluminum production from the restarted capacity at its Mt. Holly aluminum smelter in South Carolina has begun, with full production expected by the end of June. This will increase total US primary aluminum production by 10%. The total capacity involved is reportedly around 50,000 mt.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Century Aluminum has started hot metal production at its expanded Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina, USA. The expansion is expected to reach full capacity by June 2026 and will increase U.S. primary aluminum production by approximately 10%.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Futures side, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2606 contract opened at 24,140 yuan/mt today, rose to a high of 24,245 yuan/mt during the session before weakening, hitting a low of 23,935 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 24,040 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decline of 0.48%. Spot side, ADC12 market prices remained largely stable today. The upward momentum in primary aluminum prices slowed, weakening cost-side drivers. Meanwhile, downstream demand remained persistently weak, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand. Against the backdrop of ample low-priced supply and intensifying price competition, enterprises generally lacked the motivation to raise their quoted prices. However, purchase activities by futures-spot traders provided som

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Alloy Swung Wildly in Night Session to Close Higher, ADC12 Moved Sideways Driven by Cost] The most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract surged to an intraday high of 24,245 yuan/mt overnight before pulling back rapidly, once probing the low of 24,035 yuan/mt during the session, exhibiting a pattern of wild swings. Prices gradually stabilized and rebounded in the latter half of the night session, with the center steadily rising amid repeated tug-of-war around the average price line, recovering most intraday losses by the close. It finally settled at 24,155 yuan/mt, up 0.04% from the previous close.

[Short-Term Supply-Demand Resonance, Bullish Trend in Aluminum Prices Continues] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process experienced repeated setbacks, but the supply gap outside China and continued LME inventory drawdown supported LME prices to hold up well. China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether a turning point in domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China was flat MoM at 64.7%. such as can stock, energy storage, and automobiles. However, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs, exports to the Middle East were impeded, and some end-use consumption recovered less than expected, limiting upside room for the operating rate. The industry exhibited the characteristics of “steady with progress and structural divergence.”

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Supply Shortages Outside China Supported Prices to Hold Up Well, China Focused on the Turning Point of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory]

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Rising Primary Aluminum Prices Push Up Costs, While Weak Supply and Demand Constrain Secondary Aluminum Gains