[Price Review] This week, Middle East geopolitical concerns resurfaced, with the US-Iran standoff continuing to escalate: on April 28, Iran demanded transit fees from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz; on April 29, the US explicitly prohibited its individuals and entities from paying such fees to Iran, while warning non-US entities that payment would face significant sanctions risks; on April 30, Trump reiterated that Iran's abandonment of nuclear weapons was the bottom line for negotiations, stating that communication with Iran was underway via phone. Middle East tensions and energy price fluctuations further amplified uncertainties over the global economic outlook, and precious metals remained under pressure. On the US Fed front, the April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence persisting—one member advocated for an interest rate cut while three members opposed releasing easing signals. Powell broke decades of industry convention by announcing that after stepping down as Fed Chairman, he would remain as a governor until early 2028; he explicitly stated that the Trump administration's legal actions were threatening the independence of the US Fed's monetary policy-making while undermining the institution's own stability. Whether the conflict risks further escalation will continue to dominate global market risk appetite and energy price fluctuations, exerting significant impact on silver price trends. Industrial demand side, sluggish downstream consumption persisted, and as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises opted to stockpile small quantities on dips. Gold/silver ratio side, as of April 29, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rose to 62. [Key Data] Bearish: Middle East geopolitical conflict continued to escalate, with the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz transit fees intensifying. Core negotiation demands were completely opposed, and the deadlock over waterway blockade and military confrontation remained unresolved, pushing up sticky inflation expectations and reinforcing the US Fed's stance of maintaining higher interest rates for longer. The US Fed's April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence hitting a 34-year high. The overall stance was neutral-to-hawkish, with no clear interest rate cut signal released. Market expectations for rate cuts within the year cooled significantly, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields fluctuated at highs, continuously suppressing silver valuations. Inflation stickiness in the US and Europe exceeded expectations. US March CPI rose to the highest YoY and MoM since 2024, and the eurozone March core CPI final reading was unexpectedly revised upward. Persistent inflation further weakened the necessity for central bank easing. US labor market resilience exceeded expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 posted the largest single-week decline since February, significantly below market expectations, completely eliminating market bets on an emergency US Fed interest rate cut. China's silver industrial demand remained weak, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining only just-in-time procurement. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate, and transaction discounts kept widening. Bullish factors: US March PPI data significantly missed market expectations, with YoY, MoM, and core PPI gains all well below forecasts, releasing signals of marginal inflation easing and preserving room for subsequent Fed interest rate cuts. Dovish divergence within the Fed persisted, with one committee member advocating an immediate rate cut at the April meeting; some officials still believed multiple rate cuts remained possible this year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading; stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven demand for silver. Key data and macro events to watch next week include: May 1: Eurozone April CPI preliminary reading, US April ISM Manufacturing PMI. May 6: US March JOLTs job openings, April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. [Price Forecast] Recent precious metals market trading logic continues to revolve around re-escalating Middle East geopolitical concerns, inflation expectations driven by high oil prices, US Fed monetary policy expectations, and Fed Chairman transition and internal divergence. On the China fundamentals side, downstream consumption remained sluggish; as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises chose to stockpile small quantities on dips. The upward trend in spot silver ingot social inventory has yet to improve, and the market expects mainstream spot transaction discounts to remain within a narrow discount range relative to the SGE TD price. Silver prices are expected to remain under pressure with volatile trading next week.

Next week, due to the Labour Day holiday, China's SHFE and other exchanges will be closed on May 4-5; the LME outside China will be closed on May 4 for the Early May Bank Holiday. Key macro economic data includes US April ADP employment, US April unemployment rate, and US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, which are about to be released. Additionally, according to the latest news, the first batch of US tariff refunds will be issued around May 11, indicating a loosening of tariff policies, while we need to continue monitoring the progress of US-Iran negotiations. LME lead side, LME lead inventory decline slowed down, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight discount for nearly a week, indicating strong support for lead prices. The impact of Middle East events on shipping has not yet been resolved, and spot supply in Southeast Asia remains tight, especially with high-grade lead ingot premiums at elevated levels. Lead prices are expected to continue consolidating and await new factors. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,935-1,975/mt next week. SHFE lead side, downstream enterprises will be on concentrated holiday during Labour Day, while lead smelter maintenance or production shutdowns increased in April-May. However, the concentrated short-term consumption reduction still poses a significant risk of inventory buildup for lead ingots after the holiday. Combined with new delivery factors in May, lead prices may come under pressure and weaken before the holiday. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,450-16,800 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,650 yuan/mt. Supply side, primary lead and secondary lead smelters are undergoing concentrated maintenance, lead ingot supply is tightening regionally, and the import window for lead ingots has closed, reducing imported lead inflows. If lead prices weaken subsequently, spot discounts (against futures) in some regions will narrow, and secondary lead may even see an inversion (i.e., premiums against SMM #1 lead average price). After the holiday, downstream enterprises will resume production, but due to mediocre order performance, producers will maintain a produce-based-on-sales approach.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,963/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead moved sideways within $1,955.5-1,961.5/mt, then shifted to fluctuate downward, eventually closing at a low of $1,945/mt, down 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Prices briefly dipped before rebounding slightly in the early session, but encountered resistance above. Subsequently, the overall trend shifted to fluctuate downward, probing a low of 16,645 yuan/mt near the session end, eventually closing at 16,650 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%. Open interest stood at 63,800 lots, down 1,254 lots from the previous trading day. Macro front: The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and Powell will remain as governor. Warsh's Fed Chairman nomination passed a Senate committee vote. Trump: now is a good time to cut interest rates; Powell stays at the Fed because no one else wants him. Trump: believes the Russia-Ukraine and Iran conflicts will end at roughly the same time; negotiations with Iran are being conducted by phone, very conveniently. Iran stated that if the US continues to seize ships, it will respond with "unprecedented military action." Putin proposed a "Victory Day" temporary ceasefire with Ukraine and put forward suggestions on Iran's nuclear program; Trump suggested a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. World Gold Council: global central banks increased gold holdings at the fastest pace in over a year in Q1. Liu Haoling was appointed as CSRC vice chairman. China discovered 13 new 100-million-mt oil fields and 26 new 100-billion-m³ gas fields. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead maintained narrow-range fluctuations. Ahead of the holiday, suppliers actively made shipments, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce, with cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters as the main source. Some quotations were lowered from the previous day, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -20~+30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, while a few regions maintained quotations at premiums of +100 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, regional tight supply persisted. Secondary lead smelters in North China, Southwest China and other regions made shipments following the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises successively went on holiday, procurement demand weakened notably, inquiries were also scarce, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventory: As of April 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 268,700 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, battery factories' periodic restocking largely concluded last week. Downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through was weak, and overall demand remained subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts or halted operations, and spot cargo availability in the market continued to tighten; meanwhile, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, and China's primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the lead market presents a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices are highly likely to maintain fluctuating trend in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME Zinc Recorded a Shaven-Head Bearish Candlestick with Daily Candlestick Center Shifting Downward] Overnight LME zinc recorded a shaven-head bearish candlestick, with the daily candlestick center shifting downward and the 5-day moving average forming resistance above. As increased uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict triggered inflation concerns, the US dollar strengthened, non-ferrous metals were overall in the doldrums, and bears

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched a high of $1,963/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated lower during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded but subsequently came under pressure again, hitting a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering slightly. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt. Prices then came under pressure and pulled back, showing an overall fluctuate downward trend, hitting a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. A slight rebound occurred near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: The US prohibited its individuals or entities from paying Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran. Sources: Iran was expected to submit a revised peace proposal soon. Trump: Iran wanted the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. Iranian military: did not believe the war was over. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the "OPEC+" mechanism effective May 1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and economic work. China will implement zero tariffs on all African countries with diplomatic relations starting May 1, 2026. MIIT: the next step will be to carry out the "AI + Software" special action, and promote computing power layout and edge computing construction in an orderly manner. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate. Suppliers made shipments following the market, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce. Suppliers mainly offered cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters, with premiums adjusted lower from the previous day. Mainstream origins were quoted at premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, supply in east China remained tight with significant regional price differences. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and as the holiday approached, a few enterprises had already entered holiday mode. Spot order market transactions were moderate and scattered. Inventory: As of April 28, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 269,200 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery makers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption performance remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts and shutdowns, with regional secondary lead spot cargo continuing to tighten; ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market exhibited a weak supply-demand pattern on both sides, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM News, April 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.6%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.24%, SHFE lead fell 0.18%, SHFE zinc fell 2.46%, SHFE tin fell 1.88%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.58%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.17%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.69%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.98%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the downtrend from the previous three trading days, falling 4.11%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 1.62%, rebar fell 0.88%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.97%, and stainless steel rose 1.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.3%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.52%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged up 0.02%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead fell 0.31%, and LME zinc fell 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.32%. LME nickel rose 0.65%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.1% and COMEX silver fell 0.45%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.89%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.65%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.27%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.95%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.47% to 2,208.1 points. As of 11:39 on April 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, down 765 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,215 yuan/mt, down 770 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly due to increased arrivals and decreased warehouse withdrawals... Macro front China: [SASAC: Continue to push efforts in key areas such as NEVs and artificial intelligence, driving emerging industries to develop with greater momentum] A signed article by the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council published in Study and Research stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, efforts must focus on opening up a "second curve" of growth, adopting tailored and coordinated policies for different enterprises, promoting smooth and strong succession of old and new growth drivers, accelerating the development of a batch of emerging pillar industries that lead future competition, and better supporting the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone. The article proposed coordinating the transformation of traditional industries with the development of emerging industries. On one hand, adhering to the direction of intelligentization, green development, and integration, deepening and expanding the "AI+" initiative, stepping up efforts in technological upgrading and equipment renewal, vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and further accelerating the transformation of traditional industries. On the other hand, following the approach of "leading a batch, catching up with a batch, and cultivating a batch," based on enterprise resource endowments and industrial foundations, adhering to differentiated layouts, further consolidating advantages in new energy, aerospace and other industries, continuing to push forward in key areas such as NEVs, artificial intelligence, and new materials, and proactively cultivating frontier tracks such as quantum information, nuclear fusion, and low-altitude economy, driving emerging industries to build stronger momentum. (Jin10 Data) [Guangdong: Increasing Support for Trade-in of Bulk Durable Consumer Goods Such as Automobiles and Home Appliances] The Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Guangdong Province was officially released. It mentioned the bulk consumption upgrade initiative. Promoting the "fiscal subsidies + enterprise discounts + financial empowerment" model, increasing support for trade-in of bulk durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, and continuing to implement consumption-boosting policies such as "Guangdong Premium Shopping." Implementing automobile replacement and retirement and renewal policies, encouraging eligible cities to issue subsidies for new car purchases. Expanding after-market consumption such as automobile modification and leasing. Accelerating the construction of recycling systems for automobiles, electronic products, home appliances and furniture. Actively, prudently, and orderly advancing urban village renovation under new models, expanding the supply of affordable housing, and better meeting housing consumption demand. The PBOC conducted 43.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%. 5 billion yuan in reverse repo operations matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.5. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated that recent US tariff policy adjustments could increase the federal budget deficit by $1.1 trillion over ten years, though the exact figure remained uncertain. CBO Director Swagel stated that the Supreme Court's ruling invalidating Trump's use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs on his own would increase the fiscal deficit by $2 trillion over ten years, while other trade measures Trump had taken to offset this loss totaled $800 billion to $900 billion (in revenue). Swagel stated: "Because the Supreme Court eliminated some tariffs and the government reimposed some, the fiscal deficit over ten years would be approximately $1.1 trillion higher."The government has significant power to impose new tariffs and adjust them, so it is difficult to determine the exact deficit amount before the entire process is concluded." Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said on April 27 local time that with persistent inflationary pressures coupled with an economic slowdown, policymakers must remain cautious. Dalio said on Monday, "We are undoubtedly in a period of stagflation," warning that the US economy had fallen into a stagflationary environment. He noted that if Kevin Warsh, who is about to take over as Fed Chairman, chose to cut interest rates, it would be a policy mistake. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.5%. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 11, the US February FHFA House Price Index MoM, the US February S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted Home Price Index YoY, the US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the US April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Bank of Japan target rate as of April 28. Also worth watching: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. On other currencies: [BOJ Kept Rates Unchanged as Expected, Three Members Advocated for a Rate Hike] The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, but three of the nine-member policy board proposed a rate hike, signaling concerns over inflationary pressures triggered by Middle East conflicts. The 6-to-3 vote also marked the largest split since Ueda Kazuo became governor. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the BOJ decided to keep the short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with broad market expectations. Board members Takada Hajime, Tamura Naoki, and Nakagawa Junko dissented, advocating for raising the rate to 1.0%. Nakagawa Junko argued that despite ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East situation, price risks were tilted to the upside under accommodative financial conditions given economic developments. Tamura Naoki argued that given price risks were significantly tilted to the upside, the BOJ should set the policy rate as close to the neutral rate as possible. Takada Hajime argued that Japan's price stability target had essentially been achieved, and price risks had clearly tilted to the upside due to second-round effects of price increases triggered by developments outside China. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo is expected to brief the media on the decision later. (Jin10 Data APP) Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, said that three votes in favor of a rate hike was somewhat surprising, and that policy board member Nakagawa Junko also switched to supporting a rate hike. In Japan, the impact of the Middle East shock has begun to show in consumer confidence, which is concerning in itself, and this impact is expected to further transmit to the price side. Meanwhile, the yen remains under depreciation pressure in financial markets. Overall, the Bank of Japan will have no choice but to maintain its rate-hike inclination. If easing of Middle East tensions can be confirmed, the bank is expected to raise rates further around June-July. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.02% and Brent up 0.8%. The US-Iran deadlock remained unresolved, and market sentiment was generally cautious. According to the Wall Street Journal, as the US Navy enforced a blockade and negotiations remained deadlocked, Iran was scrambling to find new oil storage methods to avoid devastating production shutdowns. As oil piled up domestically, Iran was reactivating abandoned sites known as "junk storage," using makeshift containers, and attempting to continue exports by rail. These unconventional measures aimed to delay an infrastructure crisis and undermine US leverage in the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Huatai Securities noted in a research report that, considering hindered transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and limited alternative routes, combined with potentially months-long production resumptions at shut-in Middle East oil fields and a round of strategic restocking of crude oil, refined products, and other energy and chemical products globally after the strait reopens, the medium-term oil price center is expected to stay high, maintaining the 2026 Brent crude oil average price forecast at $90/barrel. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,963/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead moved sideways within the range of $1,959.5-1,966.5/mt, touching a high of $1,966.5/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead prices turned to fluctuate downward, dipping to a low of $1,947/mt. Supported by LME lead destocking, LME lead rebounded and eventually closed at $1,963.5/mt, up 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,740 yuan/mt. It briefly fluctuated downward at the beginning of the session, dipping to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt, then rebounded and eventually closed at a high of 16,785 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Its open interest reached 64,643 lots, an increase of 439 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: White House: Trump discussed Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal with senior aides. US media: Trump was skeptical of Iran's proposal but did not outright reject it. Trump: maintained contact with both Putin and Zelensky. Hezbollah leader: firmly rejected direct negotiations with Israel. Russian President Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. OpenAI and Microsoft reached a "ceasefire agreement." NBS: From January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. NDRC: prohibited foreign acquisition of the Manus project and demanded the transaction be revoked. National Energy Administration: will coordinate with the NDRC to scientifically plan hydrogen energy industry development goals and tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. China National Space Administration: made forward-looking arrangements for new industries such as space computing power and space manufacturing. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead held up well. On the spot side, warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were scarce, and some suppliers intended to ship to delivery warehouses. Cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters were also quoted firmly, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with most shipments made at premiums. On the secondary lead side, smelter maintenance increased, supply in east China was tight, and some smelters shipped at premiums. Regional price spreads widened, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. As the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement needs, inquiries were also few, and spot order market trading was sluggish. Inventory: As of April 27, LME lead inventory decreased by 325 mt to 269,700 mt. SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: On the consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through in just-in-time procurement. Supply side, affected by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts and production suspension, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten; meanwhile, primary lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. The current market presented a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: U.S.-Iran Negotiations Reach Impasse, LME Zinc Center Shifts Lower] Overnight, the LME zinc contract recorded a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, with KDJ diverging downward. The 20-day moving average below provided support. U.S.-Iran negotiations reached an impasse, expectations of escalating conflict rose, base metals were under pressure overall, bulls mainly reduced positions and exited, and the center of zinc prices shifted lower.

SMM April 27 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals rose across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.38%, SHFE aluminum up 0.3%, SHFE lead up 0.3%, SHFE zinc up 0.7%, SHFE tin up 0.48%, and SHFE nickel up 2.62%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 3.36%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 4.47%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 786 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil rose 0.15%, and stainless steel rose 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.23%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.44%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper was up 0.51%, LME aluminum up 0.95%, LME lead up 0.1%, LME zinc up 0.58%, LME tin edged down, and LME nickel was up 0.71%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.11% and COMEX silver fell 0.38%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.12%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.08%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.03% to 2,209.8 points. As of 11:43 on April 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,085 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,985 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals and some manufacturers stockpiling ahead of the holiday... Macro front China: [NBS: January-March profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 15.5% YoY; non-ferrous sector profits surged 116.7% YoY] NBS data showed that from January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. From January to March, among above-scale industrial enterprises, state-controlled enterprises posted profits of 619.61 billion yuan (up 10.1% YoY), joint-stock enterprises 1.305 trillion yuan (up 20.9%), foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises 383.73 billion yuan (up 1.2%), and private enterprises 430.53 billion yuan (up 25.4%). Yu Weining, Chief Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the industrial enterprise profit data for January–March 2026: In Q1, facing a complex economic environment, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council promptly stepped up macro regulation efforts and proactively implemented more active and effective macro policies. The industrial economy steadily rebounded, profits of above-designated-size industrial enterprises grew at a faster pace, profits in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly, profits in raw material manufacturing posted double-digit growth, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to improve. [National Energy Administration: China's Oil and Gas Supply Was Generally Stable and Orderly in Q1] The National Energy Administration held a press conference on April 27 to brief on the national energy situation and development achievements in Q1 2026. Xing Yiteng, Deputy Director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, noted that energy security was effectively safeguarded. The impacts of the Venezuela crisis and the US-Israel-Iran conflict on China's energy supply were properly managed. In Q1, China's oil and gas supply was generally stable and orderly, with above-designated-size industrial crude oil and natural gas production up 1.3% and 3.0% YoY, respectively. Raw coal production remained stable despite a relatively high base in the same period last year, with above-designated-size industrial raw coal production up 0.1% YoY. The safety situation in the power sector was stable and improving, with efficient completion of power emergency responses to various natural disasters and successful completion of power supply assurance for the Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions. (Jin10 Data) [PBOC Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 382 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net withdrawal of 382 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.42. Multiple sources revealed that the US Department of Justice was expected to conclude its criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as early as Friday, thereby ending the standoff that could have delayed the appointment of Powell's successor. Sources said senior DOJ officials recently contacted several senators, including Republican Senator Tom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, informing them of plans to drop the investigation into alleged cost overruns in the renovation of the US Fed's Washington headquarters and refer the matter to the Fed's internal watchdog. Powell's term is set to expire next month, but he indicated in March that he would remain in office until Trump's nominee for Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. According to the CME "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.3%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Germany's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK's April CBI Retail Sales Balance, and the US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index are scheduled for release today. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.85% and Brent up 1.11%. Crude oil futures rose at the start of Monday's session as peace talks between the US and Iran reached an impasse, while oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supply under sustained pressure. Crude oil futures prices swung wildly recently, as traders had to predict not only when oil exports from the Persian Gulf would resume, but also how long it would take for production in the region to recover to pre-war levels. Trump said on Sunday that Iran was facing growing domestic pressure due to its inability to export oil, which could cause long-term damage to its energy export infrastructure. Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday that they had pushed back their expectations for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal export levels from mid-May to late June. Meanwhile, they raised their Q4 WTI crude oil price expectations from $75 per barrel to $83 per barrel. (Jin10 Data) Citi raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price for the remainder of 2026 on Sunday evening local time, stating that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued to be disrupted through the end of June, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. The bank raised its base-case average price forecasts for Brent crude oil in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026 to $110, $95, and $80 per barrel, respectively. Citi also pushed back its expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. Citi stated: "Given that significant gaps remain between the two sides on their respective red-line issues, we believe the risks are tilted toward the upside for near-term bullish sentiment and H2 2026 base-case oil price forecasts." In the bullish scenario (30% probability), Citi assumed that oil shipment disruptions would persist through the end of June at a scale similar to the current level of disruption. Under this scenario, Brent prices could surge to $150 per barrel, with Q2 and Q3 2026 averages approaching $130 per barrel, before pulling back to around $100 in Q4. The bank also proposed a "super bullish" scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remained closed beyond June, noting that this would have severe implications for the share of oil expenditure in both global and US economic output. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,950.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead moved sideways within the range of $1,948.5-1,955/mt, touching a low of $1,948.5/mt. Entering the European session, driven by continued inventory drawdowns ex-China, LME lead trended higher, reaching a high of $1,970/mt before pulling back slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at $1,960.5/mt, up 0.67%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,715 yuan/mt. It briefly dipped to 16,695 yuan/mt at the start of the session before rebounding to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt. Gains narrowed slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,755 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt or 0.51%. Open interest stood at 65,139 lots, down 4,365 lots from the previous trading day. Macro: On the macro front: A shooting occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. Trump stated that Iran could call if it wanted to negotiate. Washington D.C. Attorney General Piro announced the suspension of the investigation into Powell. Iran's foreign minister briefly revisited and then departed Pakistan, delivering ceasefire conditions to the Pakistani side. Iran's Deputy Speaker: Mojtaba ordered that the Strait of Hormuz must not return to its pre-war status. Russian President Putin may head to Miami, US, to attend the G20 summit. Azerbaijan sold gold worth $3 billion for the first time. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued guidelines on strengthening services and management for new employment groups, mentioning enhanced governance of internet platform algorithms. Ministry of Finance: Securities transaction stamp tax revenue grew 78.1% in Q1. The CSRC announced that qualified foreign investors are allowed to participate in treasury bond futures trading. Spot Fundamentals: Last Friday, SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers showed reduced willingness to make shipments, with fewer quotations. Meanwhile, premiums for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site showed little difference from the previous day. Mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt above the SMM #1 lead price on an ex-works basis, while a few regions quoted at premiums of 120-150 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, smelter maintenance increased and market quotations decreased, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement with limited inquiries, and spot order market trading activity declined. Inventory: As of April 24, LME lead inventory decreased by 950 mt to 270,025 mt. As of April 23, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw a slight buildup, with total volumes trending upward. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Currently, the lead-acid battery industry off-season continues, with production cuts expanding among downstream factories. Lead ingot procurement demand continued to weaken, driving a gradual social inventory buildup. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises in Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions saw further increases in production cuts, shutdowns, and maintenance, with regional spot supply continuing to shrink. However, last week, the operating rate of secondary lead smelters rebounded somewhat as scrap battery raw material inventory was replenished. Overall, bullish and bearish factors in the market counterbalanced each other, compounded by uncertainties in the macro environment, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.