Nickel Ore " RKAB Approval Delays and Policy Shifts Expected to Drive Nickel Ore Prices Higher" This week, the price of domestic nickel ore in Indonesia has increased. In the first half of April, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,093 per dry metric ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.37%. According to SMM's Indonesian nickel ore premium data, the average premiums for laterite nickel ore with grades of 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% were reported at $37.5, $41.5, and $42 per wet metric ton respectively. Among them, the domestic arrival price for 1.6% grade nickel ore was $69.2–75.2 per wet metric ton. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflects the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations regarding the reduction of RKAB quotas. Meanwhile, the delivery price of 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore has also increased to $27–30 per wet metric ton. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, as of April 10, 2026, according to the forecast of the Indonesian Meteorological Agency BMKG, core nickel ore producing regions such as Morowali, Kolaka, and Halmahera will face continuous moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms this week, with humidity expected to approach the saturation level of 99%. Under the combined effect of active atmospheric waves and thick clouds, this extremely humid and changeable weather is expected to continue to constrain the mining efficiency of open-pit mines, slow down logistics and transportation, and further increase the operational difficulty of high-moisture management during the shipping process of laterite nickel ore. The current market is facing an obvious trend of grade decline. Although some NPI smelters have begun to accept ore with a grade of 1.45% and below, pyrometallurgical ore remains tight in April. Currently, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia announced to the media on April 6, 2026, that approximately 190 million to 200 million tons of nickel production quotas in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) have been approved. At present, some mining enterprises have received preliminary notices from the government regarding the latest quota indicators, but most enterprises have yet to obtain the final approved data. The market generally expects that the final approved amount of the 2026 RKAB will be officially finalized in the second week of April. In terms of demand, due to the resource uncertainty faced by some smelters in Indonesia and the difficulty in obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices have shown strong performance. To ensure raw material supply, some smelters have even increased trade bonuses. Hydrometallurgical Ore Additionally, there have been some transactions of low-grade saprolite ore in the market, with its fixed price relatively lower than that of high-grade ore. Following the significant increase in the price of pyrometallurgical ore, the price of limonite has also risen, aiming to further stimulate the sales enthusiasm of mines. In terms of shipping costs, affected by the increase in domestic fuel prices in Indonesia, inter-island logistics costs have shown an upward trend. It is estimated that as the RKAB quotas of mines are gradually issued in the future, freight demand will further increase, and domestic shipping costs may face a new round of upward pressure at that time. On the policy side, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia is finalizing the review of the calculation formula for the Mineral Reference Price (HPM) of nickel ore and plans to officially implement it within April 2026. Tri Winarno, the Director General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate, pointed out that the current HPM can no longer accurately reflect the current market price, especially failing to cover the "market premium" actually paid by smelters. Although the regulatory details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still await finalization by inter-ministerial bodies, judging from the current policy trend, this may indicate that the era of tax-free exports of nickel intermediate products from Indonesia is coming to an end. Looking ahead to the after-market, the continuous tightening of Indonesia's policies is expected to open up further upward space for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain. Overall, affected by potential major policy adjustments in Indonesia in the future, market uncertainty has increased, supporting the continuous volatile strengthening of Indonesia's nickel ore prices. Nickel Pig Iron "High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 2.25 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1080.25 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.43 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 137.01 per nickel unit. High-grade NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) market conditions generally remained steady. As transaction levels stabilized, the market entered a period of tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players, leaving prices under short-term pressure. From the supply side, the center of upstream quotes continued to drift slightly lower. The market has seen a notable increase in the availability of stainless steel scrap. Under the dual weight of weak terminal demand and the cost-effectiveness of scrap, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI are increasingly showing signs of softening. In Indonesia, domestic nickel ore prices have risen, and the market is grappling with a clear decline in ore grades; consequently, the supply of saprolite for pyrometallurgical processing remains tight for April. In the stainless steel spot market, social inventory levels remain at absolute highs. Despite significant pressure to move shipments, steel mills are maintaining high production rates. While there is some support from the cost side, the mills themselves are facing heavy internal cost pressures. Furthermore, with the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap becoming more prominent, mills have low tolerance for high-priced NPI and are maintaining a cautious procurement stance. In summary, NPI prices remain locked in a short-term stalemate between upstream and downstream. Influenced by competition from scrap and limited buying interest from stainless steel mills, prices continue to face overhead pressure.

Since March, the domestic tungsten market has trended higher and then pulled back. Driven by rigid supply and macro sentiment at the beginning of March, prices rose rapidly, with 65% wolframite concentrate hitting a record high of 105,000 yuan per standard ton. Starting from mid-March, profit-taking by investors, downstream resistance to high prices, and a general correction in commodity markets led to a gradual price pullback, pushing the entire market into a phase of supply-demand game.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 6 – April 10), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 502.9 yuan/gram and closed at 521.45 yuan/gram, up 19.2 yuan/gram or 3.82% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 529.5 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 496.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 377.85 yuan/gram and closed at 385.05 yuan/gram, up 7.65 yuan/gram or 2.03% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 399.85 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 366.2 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,133 lots with a total turnover of 9.348 billion yuan and open interest of 15,303 lots, a WoW decrease of 1,287 lots. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,379 lots with a total turnover of 4.348 billion yuan and open interest of 7,216 lots, a WoW increase of 88 lots. US-Iran conflict, Israel launched its most intense airstrikes on Lebanon to date. On April 9, the Speaker of Iran's Parliament issued a statement saying that three key provisions in the proposal (comprehensive ceasefire, airspace security, and uranium enrichment rights) had been violated before negotiations even began, and under such circumstances, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations would be unreasonable. Iranian media issued a statement claiming the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. US Fed monetary policy, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson noted that employment faced downside risks while inflation faced upside risks. Nick Timiraos wrote that the ceasefire agreement made the US Fed's decision-making more difficult, as energy fluctuations persisted, leading to a prolonged period of rates being held steady. Tariff side, tariff policy has been one of the core political assets during Trump's administration. If high tariffs cannot be maintained through legal channels, his political influence and foreign negotiation leverage will be significantly weakened. After the "reciprocal tariffs" were overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration implemented temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act in the short term to fill the policy vacuum, and in the medium and long-term may rely on Sections 232 and 301 to sustain a high-tariff policy framework, while threatening on social media to impose 50% tariffs on countries providing military weapons to Iran. Against this backdrop, the final determination in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium is highly likely to maintain the affirmative conclusions of the preliminary ruling. Additionally, the tariff illegality ruling triggered massive tax refund pressures, exacerbating the US fiscal burden, and after geopolitical premiums are digested, will reinforce the "weak US dollar" logic. Palladium new demand, attention should be paid to China's fiberglass industry's transition from platinum to palladium. Starting April 2026, full-year testing will be conducted, and if successful, annual demand could reach 800,000 ounces, potentially offsetting declining demand from the automotive industry. Watch for palladium test results in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the US International Trade Commission's final-stage injury hearing on the palladium anti-dumping and countervailing duty case on April 27. Watch for the transition following LBMA's appointment of IBA as the platinum and palladium price auction administrator.

Next week, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain firm. As delivery approaches, the price spread between the C contracts widened, supporting premiums. Rising copper prices may weaken some downstream orders, but existing demand and immediate procurement remain stable. Tight spot supply in Jiangsu further pushed up premiums. Overall, the premium of spot cargo against the SHFE 2604 contract is expected to continue.

In the spot market, this week (March 30 - April 3, 2026), as delivery approached, downstream consumption remained sluggish and wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Multiple smelters lowered their spot premium quotes, and suppliers continued to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. This week, mainstream transaction prices of primary lead in Henan maintained parity or slight discounts against SMM #1 lead, with some suppliers quoting discounts of 200-180 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract, while a few suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling. Toward the weekend, smelters in Hunan gradually shifted to discount quotes, and smelters in Guangdong slightly lowered their SMM #1 lead premiums to 0-50 yuan/mt, with transactions driven by rigid demand.

On April 10, two residential land parcels were offered for sale in Hangzhou, both ultimately sold at premiums exceeding 20%, with a total transaction value of 1.492 billion yuan. The Xihu District parcel went through 73 rounds of bidding and was won by Binjiang Group at a total price of 963 million yuan, with a transaction floor price of 19,129 yuan/㎡ and a premium rate of 59.67%. The Linping District parcel went through 21 rounds of bidding and was won by Greentown at a total price of 529 million yuan, with a transaction floor price of 12,950 yuan/㎡ and a premium rate of 23.33%.

Nickel market remained in the doldrums this week. On the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, both SHFE and LME nickel opened low and trended lower, with a lack of market drivers. Combined with the Strait of Hormuz blockade triggering broad pressure on risk assets, nickel prices were clearly in the doldrums. However, mid-week, the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire sharply boosted risk appetite, the US dollar index came under significant pressure, and nickel prices rebounded notably alongside improved sentiment across the non-ferrous sector in and outside China. Spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 135,363 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums continued to weaken, with the weekly average at 3,500 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Trading of imported cargoes and domestic electrodeposited nickel was overall sluggish, spot premiums declined in tandem, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited willingness to restock. On the macro front, on April 7, US President Trump announced that if Iran agreed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, the US would agree to suspend military operations against Iran for two weeks. Iran's Supreme National Security Council promptly accepted the ceasefire proposal. However, the stability of the ceasefire agreement remained in doubt, as the Strait of Hormuz was closed again on April 8. Geopolitical risks were not fully resolved, and market sentiment may continue to swing wildly as the situation fluctuates. US March non-farm payrolls data rebounded beyond expectations, hitting a high of over a year. After the data release, market bets on US Fed interest rate cuts cooled notably. The minutes of the US Fed's March FOMC meeting showed that the vast majority of officials believed progress on inflation pullback could be slower than expected, and the rate cut path had already narrowed significantly before the ceasefire. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 200 mt WoW. Currently, nickel prices are caught between geopolitical risk fluctuations and weak fundamentals. In the short term, the core fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000–138,000 yuan/mt.

As of April 10, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 19,700 mt, an increase of approximately 3,000 mt WoW. This week, lead prices held up well, with SHFE lead once approaching 16,900 yuan/mt. Suppliers actively made shipments, and primary lead smelters in south China switched to shipping at discounts. Spot order quotations were quoted at premiums of approximately -50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. However, after lead prices rose, downstream enterprises showed notably weakened enthusiasm to purchase. Apart from just-in-time procurement, they made no additional purchases. Smelters faced increasing difficulty in making shipments, leading to a buildup in in-factory inventory. In addition, next week is the delivery week for the SHFE lead 2605 contract, and some suppliers intend to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. It is expected that smelters' inventory pressure will ease relatively going forward.

【SMM Copper News Flash】According to SHFE data, a total of 6,258 mt of copper futures warrants flowed out today, of which the Shanghai region saw the largest outflow of 4,398 mt. It is worth noting that the Shanghai region has shifted from spot discounts to spot premiums.

SMM April 10 update: This week, the mainstream ex-factory prices of secondary refined lead were at discounts of 75-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, adjusting along with fluctuations in lead prices. Dragged by the consumption off-season, downstream purchasing sentiment was generally weak, with smelters mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach while holding prices firm, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continued. Affected by tight scrap battery supply and high raw material costs, losses at secondary lead smelters widened further WoW. As of April 10, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises was -184 yuan/mt, and for small and medium-sized enterprises -388 yuan/mt (excluding tin and antimony by-product revenues). Next week, production ramp-up at resuming smelters and production cuts at smelters facing raw material shortages will coexist, with a tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the supply side. Enterprise losses are expected to remain in the doldrums. Meanwhile, as the consumption off-season continues, weak purchasing sentiment from downstream battery plants will weigh on secondary lead prices. However, scrap battery raw material costs still provide support, and SMM expects secondary lead premiums to move sideways. >> Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices