[Downstream enterprises actively priced at lows; spot premiums rose consecutively]: This week, Shanghai spot premiums rebounded from lows, up 10 yuan/mt WoW from the weekly average. As of Friday this week, ordinary domestic brands offered premiums of 0-10 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, while high-end brand Shuangyan offered a premium of 100 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract..

[Zinc futures prices dropped consecutively during the week, spot transactions improved significantly]: Last week, spot premiums in Ningbo initially fell and then rose, with the overall average basically flat WoW. As of last Friday, Ningbo spot prices against the 2607 contract were quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, and at a premium of 25 yuan/mt against SHFE. The premium against SHFE maintained a fluctuating trend during the week.

[SMM Analysis] China's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Export Competitiveness Continues to Strengthen, Import Substitution Progress Continues to Advance

Platinum prices hovered at lows today. On the macro front, the US PCE data met expectations, and worries about Fed rate hikes eased somewhat. In early trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 closed at 391.00 yuan/g, edging up 0.31%. The inversion spread between the best ask price for SGE platinum 9995 and the most-traded GFEX PT2608 contract narrowed to around 5 yuan/g. Spot side, mainstream platinum quotations were at a discount of 1 yuan/g to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract, basically flat from yesterday. The vast majority of traders quoted on the higher side. Although closing deals at premium quotes was challenging, some suppliers reported that transactions at quotes near parity were moderate. Most upstream enterprises remained reluctant to sell due to low absolute prices, while downstream users mainly purchased through negotiations based on immediate needs. Overall platinum transactions were normal today. Overall platinum transactions were normal today.

Jun 25, 2026 Guangdong Region: This week, premiums in the region fell steadily. Despite a continuous rebound in copper prices, downstream restocking enthusiasm remained muted, mainly due to production cuts at processing enterprises affected by mid-year settlements, as also reflected by a six-session consecutive increase in inventory. As of Thursday, high-quality copper stood at 90 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper stood at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt WoW; and SX-EW copper stood at a discount of 40 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt WoW. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong stood at Guangdong higher by 90 yuan/mt, a relatively small spread that resulted in no trans-regional shipments. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 20,600 mt, up 5,800 mt WoW, with warrants totaling 2,700 mt, up 274 mt WoW. In detail: This week, warehouse arrivals reached 17,500 mt/week, down 200 mt/week WoW but well above the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Smelters were actively selling under mid-year cash realization pressure, and weak downstream consumption led to increased deliveries to warehouses. Warehouse withdrawals were 12,300 mt/week, down 2,000 mt WoW and below the annual average (14,200 mt/week), with poor downstream consumption being the main cause this week. Looking ahead to next week, approaching the mid-year settlement, arrivals are expected to remain abundant while consumption declines; inventory is expected to rise first and then fall, while spot premiums are expected to stay low before staging a notable rebound by the end of next week. (The above information is derived from market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. It does not constitute direct investment research advice, and clients should make prudent decisions without using it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.)

SMM Nickel, Jun 26: Macro and Market News: (1) The US PCE price index for May recorded a YoY increase of 4.1%, the highest level since April 2023, while the core PCE rose 3.4% YoY, both in line with expectations. The Q1 GDP growth was revised up from 1.6% to 2.1%. (2) The Ministry of Commerce responded to the latest progress in China-US economic and trade consultations: both sides agreed to establish a trade council and will discuss cooperation, including reciprocal tariff reductions, under this council. Spot Market: On Jun 26, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,350 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -600 to 300 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2607) fell sharply in early trading, closing at 127,120 yuan/mt, down 1.79%. July is about to enter a critical period for supplementary quota amendment applications. Inventory pressure remains the core contradiction; refined nickel supply is ample and destocking is difficult. Both domestic and international refined nickel inventories remain at high levels, and the destocking speed is slow. In the short term, nickel prices are in the doldrums.

SMM June 26: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 70 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,785 yuan/mt, up 645 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,695 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased for the sixth consecutive day, driven mainly by rising arrivals and weak consumption. As copper prices rebounded and the mid-year settlement approached, end-user restocking interest declined, and some suppliers actively lowered prices to sell. Standard-quality copper dropped to a discount of 10 yuan/mt at one point before slightly rebounding to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, Guangdong's copper cathode purchasing sentiment was 2.7, down 0.09 from the previous trading day, and selling sentiment was 2.90, up 0.01 (historical data can be accessed via the database query). Overall, inventory rose for the sixth straight day amid soft consumption, spot premiums edged lower, and trading was lackluster.

Today's SMM 10:00 AM fixing for the SGE Ag (T+D) was 13,861 yuan/kg, with a premium range quoted at parity against the T+D contract to +20 yuan/kg, averaging +10 yuan/kg, still unchanged from the previous trading session. On the macro front, the US PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 4.1% overnight, while the core PCE price index recorded 3.4%, matching market expectations. This, combined with remarks by the Fed's Williams, eased concerns over Fed rate hikes, and precious metals rebounded slightly overall. In the spot market, downstream consumption was moderate after silver prices trended lower throughout the week. Morning offers in the Shanghai region were mainly concentrated at T+D parity to +20 yuan/kg. Trader quotes leaned towards the high end, while downstream enterprises negotiated procurement based on price, with transactions closing more at the mid-to-low end. Approaching month-end, suppliers had limited willingness to sell, and some suppliers who had cleared inventory suspended offering. Low-priced supply in other regions was largely cleared. Quotes in the Shenzhen area mostly centered around a premium of 10 yuan/kg against the T+D contract. Today, the market quoted a discount of around 35 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract. Recently, overall premiums in the silver spot market have been relatively stable, with trading volume recovering slightly as absolute prices stayed at low levels.

SMM June 26 news: The futures stopped falling and edged up today, while the South China spot market gradually weakened amid divergence. The low aluminum prices and strong destocking continued to support suppliers in holding prices firm when selling, and buyers maintained some rigid demand for cargoes with invoices dated this month, with this segment of deals being overall satisfactory. However, for cargoes with invoices dated next month, offers clearly outnumbered purchases, showing lackluster performance. Coupled with expectations that the spot-futures price spread would remain relatively high, the need to cash in for the half-year end drove sellers to sell relentlessly, causing supply to become increasingly abundant. Mainstream quotations were at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, generally lower. Downstream sentiment turned more bearish, and procurement fell short, while traders pushed for lower prices and stayed on the sidelines, showing low willingness to enter the market. Overall transactions significantly cooled. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a premium of -30 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,231.5/mt, edged up to $13,308/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to touch a low of $13,190/mt, and finally closed at a high of $13,316/mt, up 2.22%. Trading volume was 26,000 lots, and open interest was 248,000 lots, up 306 lots from the previous trading day, indicating that bulls added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,180 yuan/mt, edged up to 102,600 yuan/mt, then drifted lower to touch a low of 101,640 yuan/mt, and closed at 102,260 yuan/mt, up 1.03%. Trading volume was 55,000 lots, and open interest was 162,000 lots, down 2,799 lots from the previous session, indicating that bears reduced positions. On the macro front, US PCE data largely met expectations, and the US dollar index halted its three-day rally. Geopolitically, another vessel attack occurred in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned that unauthorized transits are "unacceptable," and Israel denied withdrawing troops from southern Lebanon, which heightened Middle East tensions again and pushed geopolitical risk premiums higher. These factors eased rate hike concerns, and the US dollar stopped rising and pulled back, helping copper prices stabilize and rebound.