Amid this structural adjustment in global regional demand, with gains in some markets offsetting declines in others, China’s prebaked anode exports can offset the pressure from weakening demand in traditional markets through market structure optimization and a shift in the center of orders. Coupled with its own capacity and supply chain advantages, China’s prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a certain increase for the full year.

Brief Comment: So far, an aluminum enterprise in Shandong has announced the November 2025 prebaked anode tender benchmark price, which rose by 222 yuan/mt MoM. Simultaneously, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company increased its sales price by 251 yuan/mt MoM. According to SMM data, as of October 31, China's comprehensive cost for prebaked anode increased to 5,125 yuan/mt, up 3.31% from September 30. The current raw material market is performing well, providing some support for prebaked anode prices. Particularly for petroleum coke, downstream demand is generally favorable, purchasing enthusiasm in the carbon industry is moderate, and demand from the anode material market for petroleum coke persists. Considering various factors, the price center for petroleum coke in November is expected to move higher. Against this backdrop, prebaked anode prices, directly supported by rising raw material costs, are expected to continue their upward trend.

An aluminum enterprise in Shandong adjusted the benchmark price for its prebaked anode tender for September 2025, up 93 yuan/mt MoM. Meanwhile, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company raised its sales price, up 94 yuan/mt MoM. The raw material market for prebaked anodes is currently diverging, but the price of the main raw material, petroleum coke, remains on an upward trend, driving up overall costs and providing some support for prebaked anode prices. Supported by the raw material market, prebaked anode prices are expected to have further room for increase.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (July 7-10, 2025) are as follows......

Considering the domestic and overseas market situations, the good performance of prebaked anode demand has laid a solid foundation for the industry to maintain a high operating rate. Based on current market dynamics, SMM predicts that the market supply of prebaked anodes in July will increase slightly.