US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently publicly lashed out at journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed mouthpiece," pointing out that under the new era with Kevin Warsh at the helm of the US Fed, the old "Fed mouthpiece" can no longer access exclusive information as he did during the Powell era, and his former comparative advantage has completely vanished. As to whether Warsh is "hawkish in words but dovish at heart" or truly steadfast, views in the market are currently mixed and interpretations vary. In his latest interview, Bessent also made it clear that he sees no need to raise interest rates at this time.

[SMM Tin Morning News: US Dollar Breaks 101 to Hit 13-Month High, SHFE Tin Falls to 380,000 Yuan Mark]

SMM June 24 – Metals market: As of the midday close, all domestic base metals fell, with SHFE copper down 0.95%, SHFE aluminum down 1.11%, SHFE lead down 0.12%, SHFE zinc down 1.7%, SHFE nickel down 1.94%, and SHFE tin down 4.64% to a session low of 388,220 yuan/mt. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum contract fell 1.01%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.52%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.67%, the most-traded silicon metal contract edged down, and the most-traded polysilicon contract rose 0.28%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.68%, rebar edging down, HRC edging up, and stainless steel down 1.27%. On the coking coal and coke front: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.64%, and the most-traded coke contract was at parity with 1,953.5 yuan/mt. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:38, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper rose 0.24%, LME aluminum fell 0.67%, LME lead fell 0.44%, LME zinc and LME tin fell within 0.5%, and LME nickel edged down. On the precious metals front, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.86% and COMEX silver fell 1.34%. On the domestic precious metals front: the most-traded SHFE gold contract extended its losing streak from the previous four trading days, falling another 2.37% to a session low of 886.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended its losing streak from the previous three trading days, falling another 5.08%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.6% and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.41%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.79% to 3,745 points. As of 11:38 on June 24, some futures midday market data: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,310 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average SX-EW copper price was 103,200 yuan/mt, down 970 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, mainly due to increased arrivals... Macro Front Domestic Side: [Three Ministries Implement 2026 Insurance Compensation Policy for First (Set of) Major Technical Equipment] The MIIT General Office, the Ministry of Finance General Office, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration General Office issued a notice on implementing the 2026 insurance compensation policy for the first (set of) major technical equipment. The notice stated that complete equipment is generally supported based on the number of units (sets); core systems, key parts, key supporting components for major technical equipment, and basic components are generally supported based on the number of batches. For complete equipment such as high-end industrial machine tools, specialized electronic equipment, new-type agricultural machinery, and precision instruments and meters, which have relatively low per-unit value, support can be provided on a batch basis; for high-value core systems and key components like aircraft engines and marine engines, support can be provided on a per-unit basis. [Ultra-long special government bonds have helped upgrade over 360,000 elevators] On June 24, it was learned from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that since the state included the upgrading of old residential elevators into the scope of ultra-long special government bond funding support, various localities have actively relied on policy support to vigorously promote the upgrading of old residential elevators, facilitating residents' convenient travel. To date, a total of over 360,000 old residential elevators have been upgraded. (CCTV News) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 242.2 billion yuan today] The PBOC today conducted 662.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous. Today, 420.3 billion yuan of reverse repo matures. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 101.47. On the data front: on June 24, S&P Global released data showing that the US June composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) flash reading rose to 52.2, higher than the previous 51.5 and market expectations of 52.1, hitting a five-month high and indicating continued expansion in US business activity. By sector, manufacturing stood out. New orders grew at the fastest pace in over four years, driving a marked pickup in factory production. The US June manufacturing PMI flash reading rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022, exceeding the expected 54.6 and the prior 55.1. Meanwhile, the service sector also maintained expansion, with the June services PMI flash reading climbing to 51.3, a four-month high, above the expected 51.1 and the prior 50.7. At the same time, easing cost pressure expectations due to the de-escalation of Middle East tensions also boosted business confidence. However, the survey also showed that issues such as supply chain delays, rising raw material costs, and slowing employment persist, and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid. (From Wall Street Insight APP) According to CNBC, as the search for the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta enters its seventh month, the hiring process is being closely watched. Observers hope to see how the new Fed chief Warsh will reshape the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting interest rate policy. As Warsh began to exert his personal influence within the Fed, the selection process shifted. During former Fed Chairman Powell’s tenure, the Fed had already been scouting candidates for the Atlanta Fed president job title, according to two people familiar with the hiring process. However, to allow Warsh to take the lead on the appointment, the selection process was temporarily suspended. Because the search is still ongoing, both sources requested anonymity. They noted that Michael Faulkender, who previously served as a senior Treasury official under President Trump, was subsequently added to the list of candidates for the Atlanta Fed presidency. It remains unclear whether Faulkender is still a candidate. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the Fed holds rates steady in July is 62.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bps hike is 37.4%. The probability that the Fed holds rates steady through September is 29.8%, with a 50.6% chance of a cumulative 25bps hike and a 19.6% chance of a cumulative 50bps hike. In other currencies: Data released on Wednesday showed that Australia’s CPI slowed in May, weighed down by lower fuel costs and reduced holiday travel demand. Still, core inflation came in above expectations, suggesting that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the CPI fell 0.7% MoM in May, while the YoY growth rate slowed to 4%, down from the previous reading of 4.2% and compared with market expectations of a 0.4% MoM decline and 4.3% YoY growth. However, core inflation, which strips out volatile items, rose 0.4% MoM in May—topping expectations of 0.3%—pushing the annual rate to 3.6%. The RBA has already hiked rates three times this year as it seeks to pull core inflation back into its 2%–3% target range. The Bank of Japan signaled in the minutes of last week’s board meeting that there is a need to further raise the benchmark interest rate. At that meeting, the BOJ lifted the policy rate to its highest level since 1995. According to the minutes released on Wednesday, one member stated: “Given that core CPI inflation is close to 2% and financial conditions remain accommodative, the Bank should continue raising the policy rate in response to the current economic, inflation and financial environment.” While the BOJ’s move last week marked its first rate hike since last December and signaled clearly that more increases are ahead, the minutes offered no explicit guidance on the timing of the next hike. Even so, they reinforced market expectations for another rate increase before the end of the year. The day after the meeting concluded, a survey of economists showed that about 90% of respondents expected another rate hike before December, with over one-third projecting October as the next adjustment window. Economists now expect the benchmark rate in this hiking cycle to reach 1.75%, up from the 1.5% forecast in the survey earlier this month. (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today will see the release of Australia's unadjusted May CPI y/y, Germany's June IFO business climate index, Switzerland's June ZEW investor sentiment index, the Q1 US current account, and US new home sales (annualized) for May, among other data. Also on watch: the Bank of Japan publishes a summary of opinions from the board members on the June monetary policy meeting; the 2026 Shanghai Mobile World Congress runs through June 26. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges fell, with WTI down 1.08% and Brent off 0.87%. Following a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, keeping international crude prices under pressure. (Wall Street News) Iran's ambassador in Geneva stated that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial vessels, and a significant volume of oil has been transported through the waterway in recent days. (Jin10 Data App) On June 23 local time, US President Trump said the United States is "working toward a fair agreement with Iran" to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that 19 million barrels of oil were transported through the strait just the previous day (June 22). Trump reiterated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and indicated that work on the matter is progressing well. (CCTV) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 1 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market fell, with SHFE copper edging up, while SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead dipped slightly. SHFE zinc fell 0.84%. SHFE tin rose 0.85%. SHFE nickel fell 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.35%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.26%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.75%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.19%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore down 0.38%, rebar up 0.67%, hot-rolled coil up 0.59%, and stainless steel down 0.81%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 7.2%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 5.1%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:44, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.56%. LME aluminum rose 0.2%. LME lead rose 0.22%. LME zinc rose 0.08%. LME tin rose 0.51%. LME nickel rose 0.34%. Precious metals, as of 11:44, COMEX gold fell 0.88%, and COMEX silver rose 0.16%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.78%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.13%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.97%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.72%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 11.26%, closing at 3,884 points. As of 11:44 on June 1, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,845 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,740 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory saw a significant increase... Macro front China: [The "Regulations of the State Council on Outbound Investment" was published and will take effect on July 1, 2026] It mentioned that investors conducting outbound investment activities shall not export or use goods, technologies, services, and related data prohibited from export by the state, or export or use goods, technologies, services, and related data restricted from export by the state without authorization; shall not transfer goods, technologies, services, and related data prohibited from export by the state to other countries (regions) through means such as cross-border dispatch of technical personnel, organizing personnel to work in other countries (regions), providing cross-border technical guidance, or arranging cross-border training, or transfer goods, technologies, services, and related data restricted from export by the state to other countries (regions) without authorization. [Shanghai Municipal Government General Office Released the Shanghai Service Industry Development 15th Five-Year Plan] The plan mentioned that by 2030, the service industry is expected to achieve notable progress in optimizing its structure, fostering momentum, and improving quality and efficiency, with continuous improvement in digitalization, standardization, integration, and internationalization. The added value of the service industry is expected to reach approximately 6 trillion yuan, basically forming a new high-quality and efficient service industry system led by high-level urban core service functions, anchored by high-end producer services, and supported by high-grade consumer services, building Shanghai's service industry into a "resilient foundation" for economic growth with higher capacity and a "dynamic hub" for global service resource allocation with stronger influence. (Source: Wallstreetcn) [PBOC Net Drained 247 Billion Yuan via Open Market Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 11 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. A total of 258 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:44, the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 99.08. According to an article by Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed whisperer," in a speech on Sunday evening local time, former US Fed Chair Powell stated that if any administration found an excuse to remove Fed officials simply over policy disagreements, the Fed would not be able to survive. Powell currently serves as a Fed governor. While speaking broadly about institutions, the rule of law, and related topics, he did not name any president, nor did he express any specific personal grievances. However, when addressing the institutional framework designed to keep monetary policy decisions out of presidential control, his language was extremely precise. Powell emphasized the legal protections designed to prevent the arbitrary removal of Fed officials and specifically noted that the executive branch "plays no role in selecting or supervising the 12 regional Reserve Bank presidents," who vote on interest rate decisions alongside Fed governors. "If any administration found an excuse to remove Fed officials simply over policy disagreements, future administrations would inevitably follow suit," Powell said. He noted that the credibility the Fed had built over decades was a "priceless asset," and he and his colleagues "have a responsibility to defend it." (Source: Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the current US Fed transition pace was relatively smooth, and within the next two years, among the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, only JeromeGovernor Powell may see changes due to his term ending in 2028, while regional Fed presidents face no formal departure pressure before 2028. New Chair Warsh was sworn in on May 22 and his remarks did not release dovish signals. Overall, dovish forces within the US Fed have notably weakened, with neutral and neutral-to-hawkish stances in the majority on policy, though attention is still needed on US economic conditions, geopolitical conflict risks, and other factors. Data: Today's releases include the UK May Nationwide House Price Index MoM, Switzerland April real retail sales YoY, France May manufacturing PMI final, Germany May manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone May manufacturing PMI final, UK May manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone April unemployment rate, US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US May ISM manufacturing PMI, and US April construction spending MoM. In addition, attention is needed on: the opening of NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026, with Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech. Crude oil: As of 11:44, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 2.26% and Brent up 2%. Oil prices rebounded from six-week lows as the outlook for an Iran war and peace agreement remained unclear. The US and Iran exchanged messages over the weekend seeking to revise a draft agreement aimed at extending the ceasefire and opening the Strait of Hormuz, but whether substantive progress was made remains unclear. Previously, optimism that the two sides would reach some form of peace agreement and that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would resume had led to crude oil's first monthly decline this year. "Neither Iran nor the US will concede or compromise on their bottom lines for reaching a deal, some of which have not changed since before the war," said economist Gaoud. These bottom lines include the nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, the ballistic missile program, and sanctions. He also noted that oil prices may remain sensitive to local developments and statements from political leaders. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated at Highs During Night Session, Downstream End-User Enterprises Maintained a Cautious Attitude Toward Purchases]

SMM News, May 19: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.14%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.66%. SHFE lead edged up. SHFE zinc fell 0.28%. SHFE tin dropped 0.43%. SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.68%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.69%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 3.74%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.3%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.92%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dropped 1.24%, rebar fell 0.93%, hot-rolled coil dropped 0.73%, and stainless steel fell 0.71%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.81%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.22%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals nearly all declined. LME copper fell 0.57%. LME aluminum edged up 0.04%. LME lead dropped 0.25%. LME zinc fell 0.1%. LME tin dropped 1.14%. LME nickel fell 0.27%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.13%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.74%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures rose 0.17%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 0.22%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.22%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.31%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.84%, closing at 2,631.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 19, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 24,495-24,675 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions at 24,605-24,775 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions at 24,425-24,605 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the market quoted a premium of 30-40 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the futures contract for now... Macro front China: [Preview: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce preparations for the 4th China International Supply Chain Expo] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 AM on May 22, 2026 (Friday). Li Xingqian and Liu Jiannan, Vice Chairs of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), will introduce preparations for the 4th China International Supply Chain Expo and answer questions from reporters. (Wallstreetcn) [Fujian: By 2030, the province's optoelectronic industry cluster revenue to exceed 300 billion yuan, accelerating R&D of high-speed optical modules] Recently, the "Fujian Province '15th Five-Year' Optoelectronic Industry Cluster High-Quality Development Action Plan (Draft for Public Comments)" was released for public consultation. It was mentioned that by 2030, the provincial optoelectronic industry cluster would achieve revenue exceeding 300 billion yuan, with the preliminary establishment of an optoelectronic industry cluster featuring a complete chain, a well-developed ecosystem, and international influence. In the optical communication field, targeting scenarios such as AI computing center interconnection and high-speed data center interconnection, the focus would be on developing high-performance optical coherent systems (OCS), linear-drive pluggable optical modules (LPO), near-packaged optics (NPO), co-packaged optics (CPO), Micro LED+CPO multi-channel low-power optical communication, and silicon photonics technology; accelerating R&D and industrialisation of key products and technologies including ≥200G EML, ≥800mW large power lasers, and ≥800G high-speed optical modules. Support would be given to advantageous enterprises to expand into specialty segments such as submarine optical cables and high-performance optical cables, continuously improving and enhancing the optoelectronic industry chain. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.08. According to Fox Business, citing White House officials on Monday, Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chairman at a ceremony at the White House on Friday, presided over by Trump. The US Senate approved Warsh as Fed Chairman last Wednesday, and the 56-year-old lawyer and financier will take the helm of the US central bank. The US Fed is currently facing intensifying inflationary pressures, which may make the interest rate cuts demanded by Trump difficult to implement. As Trump's nominee for Fed Chairman, Warsh's appointment is expected to bring a fresh start to the relationship between the Trump administration and the US Fed. Over the previous eight years, friction between the White House and the US Fed was constant, compounded by a global pandemic and the fight against high inflation. Warsh will take over leadership from Powell. (Jin10 Data) The sharp rise in US Treasury yields this month may be nearing its peak. Analysts at JPMorgan stated: "We no longer believe the risks are skewed toward higher yields." They said: "Money market pricing reflects a more hawkish policy outcome than our base case, and valuations have corrected." According to CME data, the market largely expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged, but the probability of a rate hike is also increasing. Long-term bonds appear undervalued. JPMorgan stated: "We believe this bearish repricing presents an opportunity to increase duration." (Jin10 Data) A CICC research report noted that multiple recent US inflation data points exceeded expectations, while the labor market trended toward stability. Bonds experienced a sell-off, and market concerns over inflation continued to intensify. Meanwhile, US-Iran peace negotiations showed no substantive progress, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, and upside risks to energy prices were difficult to dissipate. In our base case scenario, we expect US PCE inflation to remain above 3.5% for the full year, with core PCE inflation staying above 3%, both significantly higher than the US Fed's 2% policy target. Against this backdrop, the US Fed's policy stance is expected to shift toward a more cautious direction, making further interest rate cuts unlikely within the year (previously, the next rate cut was expected in Q4). After new Chair Warsh takes office, establishing policy credibility will be the top priority, and promptly conveying clear anti-inflation signals to the market is both a necessary duty and an essential move to stabilize expectations. For markets, this means a rising probability of marginal tightening in US dollar liquidity, and assets driven purely by liquidity are likely to remain under pressure. Other currencies: The Reserve Bank of Australia stated in its latest meeting minutes that raising interest rates for the third consecutive meeting would provide it with room to monitor how households and enterprises cope with the impact of the Middle East conflict that has caused fuel prices to surge. The minutes noted: "Although uncertainty remains, financial conditions are likely to tighten somewhat following this decision." According to the minutes, committee members discussed whether to raise rates or hold steady, with eight of the nine-member committee deciding there was a stronger case to raise rates to 4.35%. The minutes showed that the rate hike "would give the committee room to observe how the Middle East conflict develops and how households and enterprises respond." The committee acknowledged that policy actions cannot change the "short-term trajectory" of inflation. Money markets expect the RBA to raise rates at least once more this year, with more than a 50% probability of two additional hikes. After raising rates again two weeks ago, the RBA has fully reversed all of last year's easing measures. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include the US ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, the US April pending home sales index MoM, the eurozone March seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK March three-month ILO unemployment rate, the UK April unemployment rate, the UK April claimant count, and the Canada April CPI MoM. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets declined, with WTI down 1.56% and Brent down 2.02%. The US extended the Russian seaborne oil sanctions waiver by another 30 days; at the request of Gulf allies, Trump canceled the military strike on Iran originally scheduled for the 19th, and international oil prices dropped sharply in response. (Jin10 Data) On May 18 local time, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, while attending the G7 finance ministers' meeting in Paris, France, stated that due to the Middle East conflict, commercial oil inventories are "declining sharply" and can sustain supply for "only a few more weeks."Birol said that the IEA's decision in March to coordinate the release of strategic petroleum reserves by member states could increase daily supply by approximately 2.5 million barrels, but these reserves are "not inexhaustible," and all parties should recognize the urgency of the situation. The latest monthly oil report released by the IEA on the 13th of this month showed that in March and April, global observable petroleum inventories, including offshore crude oil, decreased by 250 million barrels, equivalent to a daily average decrease of 4 million barrels. As the summer demand peak approaches, international oil prices may fluctuate further. (CCTV) In addition, according to Nikkei News, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung are expected to agree at a summit on Tuesday to establish a framework for cooperation in crude oil procurement, including the creation of a joint reserve mechanism. Takaichi Sanae will visit South Korea from Tuesday to Wednesday as part of ongoing "shuttle diplomacy" between the two countries. The situation in the Middle East is expected to be one of the key topics of the talks. The joint reserve plan will utilize the "Partnership on Energy and Resource Resilience" (POWERR), an energy framework for cooperation with Southeast Asia announced by Takaichi Sanae in April. POWERR Asia aims to support the development of energy supply systems, particularly in Asian countries with insufficient petroleum reserves. Financial support will be provided through institutions such as the Japan Bank for International Cooperation when enterprises procure crude oil from regions outside the Middle East. Japan and South Korea will not only cooperate on financial support but also jointly provide technical assistance to build petroleum reserve systems. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 19 News: Metals market: Overnight metals showed mixed performance across domestic and overseas markets. On the overseas market, LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, and LME nickel all declined, with LME zinc leading the losses at 0.65%. SHFE zinc fell 0.06%, while other metals rose, with SHFE tin leading the gains at 0.98%; fluctuations in other metals were relatively small. Alumina main contract fell 1.02%, and casting aluminum main contract rose 0.59%. Ferrous metals generally declined, with stainless steel down 0.71%; fluctuations in other varieties were relatively small. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.86% and coke fell 1.06%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.2% and COMEX silver rose 0.74%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.04% and SHFE silver rose 1.02%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM on May 19: Macro Front China: [NBS: Industrial Value-Added of Enterprises Above Designated Size Up 5.6% YoY in January-April, National Economy Maintains Steady and Progressive Development] In January-April, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the construction of a new development pattern, effectively implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Production and supply grew steadily, market sales continued to expand, foreign trade resilience was further demonstrated, employment and prices remained generally stable, new momentum grew stronger, and high-quality development advanced toward new and better directions. NBS data showed: in January-April, industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size nationwide was up 5.6% YoY. By three major sectors, mining industry value-added was up 5.5% YoY, manufacturing up 5.8%, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water up 4.5%. Equipment manufacturing value-added was up 8.7% YoY, and high-tech manufacturing value-added up 12.6%, faster than overall industrial value-added above designated size by 3.1 and 7.0 percentage points respectively. By economic type, state-controlled enterprises' value-added was up 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises up 6.0%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises up 3.9%; private enterprises up 5.2%. By product, production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots was up 50.9%, 36.0%, and 25.7% YoY respectively. In April, industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size nationwide was up 4.1% YoY and up 0.05% MoM. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%; the business activity expectations index was 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM. From January to March, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved total profits of 1,696 billion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. [NBS: Selling prices of commercial residential properties in first-tier cities rose MoM in April; MoM declines in second- and third-tier cities narrowed or remained unchanged from the previous month] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In April, new commercial residential selling prices in first-tier cities rose 0.1% MoM, with the increase pulling back 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively, while Beijing fell 0.2%. New commercial residential selling prices in second-tier cities fell 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing 0. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.29% to 98.99. A CICC research report noted that multiple recent US inflation data exceeded expectations, while the labor market trended toward stability. Bonds saw a sell-off, and market concerns over inflation continued to intensify. Meanwhile, US-Iran peace negotiations showed no substantive progress, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and upside risks to energy prices are difficult to dissipate. In our base case, we expect US PCE inflation to remain above 3.5% for the full year, with core PCE inflation above 3%, both significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target. Against this backdrop, the Fed's policy stance is expected to shift toward greater caution, making further interest rate cuts unlikely this year (previously, the next cut was expected in Q4). After new Chairman Warsh takes office, establishing policy credibility will be the top priority, and promptly conveying clear anti-inflation signals to the market is both a proper course of action and a necessary step to stabilize expectations. For markets, this means a rising probability of marginal tightening in US dollar liquidity, and assets driven purely by liquidity are likely to remain under pressure. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the Wall Street Journal, White House officials revealed that Trump will host a swearing-in ceremony at the White House on Friday for incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. This ceremony underscores the high importance Trump places on this appointment. Powell, whom Trump nominated to lead the Fed during his first term in 2018, had his swearing-in ceremony held at the Fed, which Trump did not attend. The last Fed Chairman to be sworn in at the White House was Greenspan, who took office in 1987. Subsequent ceremonies were all held at the Fed. The last president to attend such a ceremony was George Bush, who attended Bernanke's swearing-in ceremony in 2006. Later that year, Wash was sworn in as a Fed Governor at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, with the ceremony presided over by Vice President Dick Cheney. Friday's swearing-in ceremony will bring to a close an unusually prolonged transition at the top of the US Fed. (Jin Shi Data APP) The market no longer believes the US Fed will cut interest rates; in fact, the probability of a rate hike has been steadily rising. Current pricing shows that the probability of a rate hike by the end of this year has reached 42%. Market veteran Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, stated: "The US Fed must catch up with the bond market to avoid losing control of borrowing costs and to appease the 'Bond Vigilantes.'" Fed Chairman-designate Kevin Wash was originally sent to the US Fed with the intention of lowering interest rates, but now he may instead have to push for rate hikes to establish his policy credibility. (Wallstreetcn) Data: Today will see the release of US ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, US April pending home sales index MoM, eurozone March seasonally adjusted trade balance, UK March three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK April unemployment rate, UK April claimant count, and Canada April CPI MoM, among other data. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose together, with WTI up 1.46% and Brent up 0.39%. Tensions between the US and Iran eased slightly, and crude oil gains narrowed. The head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America stated that in his best-case oil price scenario, Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel for the remainder of this year, and prices could be even higher if the standoff with Iran persists or the situation escalates due to new conflicts. (From Wallstreetcn APP) On the 18th local time, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol, speaking on the sidelines of the G7 finance ministers' meeting in Paris, France, said that due to the Middle East conflict, commercial oil inventories were "declining sharply" and could sustain supply for "only a few more weeks." Birol said the IEA's March decision to coordinate member states' release of strategic petroleum reserves could increase daily market supply by approximately 2.5 million barrels, but these reserves are "not inexhaustible," and all parties should recognize the urgency of the situation. The IEA's latest monthly oil report released on the 13th of this month showed that in March and April, global observable oil inventories, including offshore crude oil, decreased by 250 million barrels, equivalent to a daily average reduction of 4 million barrels. As the summer demand peak approaches, international oil prices may fluctuate further. (CCTV) (Jin Shi Data APP) Data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on Monday showed that a record 9.9 million barrels of crude oil were released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) last week. This directly pushed down the total inventory of the US government's emergency reserves, bringing it to approximately 374 million barrels, the lowest level since July 2024. (Wallstreet CN)

SMM May 18: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1.47%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.22%, SHFE lead declined 0.67%, SHFE zinc lost 0.91%, SHFE tin slid 3.26%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.17%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum alloy futures fell 1.1%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 0.54%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.12%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.82%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures declined 0.98%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 0.99%, rebar fell 1.02%, hot-rolled coil declined 0.89%, and stainless steel lost 1.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.12%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.74%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:41, LME metals declined across the board. LME copper fell 0.28%, LME aluminum dropped 0.63%, LME lead lost 0.2%, LME zinc declined 0.81%, LME tin slipped 0.05%, and LME nickel fell 0.35%. Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.59%, hitting an intraday low of $4,483.5/oz; COMEX silver dropped 3.34%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.61%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 9.38%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.36%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 1.92%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 3.77% to 2,590 points. As of 11:41 on May 18, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Market and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,235 yuan/mt, down 1,515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,160 yuan/mt, down 1,485 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again today... Macro Front China: [NBS: Industrial value-added output of enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% in January-April; the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend] From January to April, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the construction of a new development paradigm, effectively implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Production and supply grew steadily, market sales continued to expand, foreign trade resilience remained evident, employment and prices were generally stable, new growth drivers strengthened, and high-quality development continued to advance toward new and better outcomes. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that from January to April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 5.6% YoY. By three major categories, the value added of the mining industry grew 5.5% YoY, manufacturing grew 5.8%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.5%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew 8.7% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew 12.6%, which were 3.1 and 7.0 percentage points faster than the overall industrial value added above designated size, respectively. By economic type, the value added of state-owned holding enterprises grew 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.0%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.9%; and private enterprises grew 5.2%. By product, the production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew 50.9%, 36.0%, and 25.7% YoY, respectively. In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 4.1% YoY, up 0.05% MoM. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%; the business production and operation activity expectations index was 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. From January to March, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved total profits of 1,696 billion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. [NBS: In April, new home selling prices in first-tier cities rose MoM, while declines in second- and third-tier cities narrowed or remained the same as the previous month] NBS: In April, new home selling prices in first-tier cities rose 0.1% MoM, with the increase pulling back 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively, while Beijing fell 0.2%. New home selling prices in second-tier cities fell 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New home selling prices in third-tier cities fell 0.3% MoM, with the decline the same as the previous month. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 21 cities saw new home selling prices rise or remain flat MoM, an increase of 5 from the previous month. [Shenzhen property market heat continues, housing provident fund loan share rises significantly] The latest statistics showed that after the new policy, the share of housing provident fund loans rose significantly, reflecting from one perspective that the new policy precisely released rigid and improvement-oriented housing demand, market confidence strengthened, and transaction heat continued. As of May 17, citywide first-hand and second-hand residential net signings totaled 5,526 units, up 39.2% YoY. (Shenzhen Release) US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index was up 0.09% at 99.34. According to the UK's Financial Times, two US Fed officials nominated by US President Trump opposed allowing Powell to serve as interim Fed chairman "without a time limit." This underscores that political divisions within the central bank are deepening as the White House continues its attacks on the US Fed. Fed Chairman Powell's second term ended on Friday. Powell was appointed as interim chairman to carry out duties before his formal successor, Warsh, completes his inauguration. Milan and Bowman, nominated by Trump to join the US Fed's Board of Governors, said in a joint statement that they supported Powell serving temporarily as interim chairman, but because the arrangement was "without a time limit," they "could not support this action." Milan cast a dissenting vote, while Bowman chose to abstain. Milan and Bowman stated that Powell's arrangement as interim chairman "should be limited to a clear and finite timeframe, at least one week," but they "could support a maximum term of one month." DoubleLine Capital CEO Gundlach said investors would not see an interest rate cut at the next US Fed policy meeting. "Previously, expectations were for two interest rate cuts this year, but the inflation market is simply not cooperating," Gundlach said. "In my view, when the two-year Treasury yield is nearly 50 basis points above the federal funds rate, it is simply impossible to cut interest rates." Gundlach said Kevin Warsh, who was just confirmed as Fed Chairman, is taking office during a "difficult period." Gundlach said: "DoubleLine's model suggests that the leading digit of the next CPI reading will be '4'." In addition, according to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July is 95.0%, with a 0.7% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut and a 4.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data) Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, said that as investors grow increasingly concerned about inflation, the US Fed needs to keep pace with the bond market or risk losing control over borrowing costs. He noted that given the current market environment is "no longer" suited for an easing stance, the US Fed should remove its easing bias at the June meeting. "If the US Fed fails to remove this bias, investors will conclude that the US Fed is falling behind the inflation curve and will demand a higher inflation risk premium," Yardeni said. "We expect the US Fed to hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and shift to a tightening policy stance."Yardeni added that the current economic backdrop no longer justified a dovish lean, let alone interest rate cuts. On the contrary, he believed that a more hawkish Warsh than the market expected could actually benefit Trump by helping to suppress long-term Treasury yields. (Jin10 Data) Data: The US May NAHB Housing Market Index and China's April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD) were scheduled for release today. Also noteworthy: the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the national economic performance; the National Energy Administration publishes total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting was held through May 19. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 2.21% and Brent up 1.83%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, as Netanyahu spoke with Trump to "discuss the possibility of resuming military operations against Iran." Trump warned, "Time is running out for Iran, they'd better act fast or they'll get nothing. Time is of the essence!" Brown Brothers Harriman's Global Head of Market Strategy Elias Haddad noted: "The Strait of Hormuz blockade will continue to be the dominant driver for markets, as there is no clear resolution in sight, and the global oil inventory buffer is shrinking rapidly. Therefore, crude oil prices face further upside risk, which will simultaneously weigh on global bond and equity markets." (Wallstreetcn) Iraq's new Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair stated at a press conference on the 16th that the country exported approximately 10 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz in April, far below the roughly 93 million barrels per month before the US-Israel-Iran conflict broke out. Khudair said Iraq currently plans to increase the flow through the pipeline connecting Kirkuk in Iraq to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey to boost exports. However, unless the war ends, Iraq's crude oil exports cannot return to pre-war levels. Iraq plans to engage in dialogue and cooperation with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to enhance the country's export capacity. (Jin10 Data) In addition, Ukraine's Security Service said Ukraine struck a refinery and two oil pumping stations in Russia's Moscow region. Meanwhile, a latest opinion poll in Japan showed that amid crude oil undersupply, 70% of Japanese citizens believed the government should call for energy-saving measures. Recently, Japan's crude oil imports plummeted, and the country has released strategic petroleum reserves twice, sparking widespread concern. Kyodo News conducted a telephone survey from the 16th to the 17th, asking the public about issues including the undersupply of crude oil and its derivatives. The survey released on the 17th showed that 70.5% of respondents believe the Japanese government should call for measures to conserve energy and resources. Regarding naphtha, a key raw material for plastic production, 70.6% of respondents said they "feel uneasy" about its undersupply. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

[SMM Weekly Platinum and Palladium Review] This week (May 11 – May 15), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on China's GFEX opened at 509 yuan/gram and closed at 499.05 yuan/gram, down 14.95 yuan/gram or 2.91% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 542.25 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 496.05 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 366 yuan/gram and closed at 345 yuan/gram, down 26.45 yuan/gram or 7.12% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 376.85 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 340 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 32,874 lots with a total turnover of 17.139 billion yuan and open interest of 9,970 lots, down 4,309 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,453 lots with a total turnover of 6.651 billion yuan and open interest of 6,565 lots, down 499 lots WoW. Platinum and palladium first rose and then declined during the week. Peru experienced a sudden energy crisis within the week and issued a national emergency decree. Power rationing was expected to cause mine shutdowns, thereby affecting supply. As the world's 12th largest mining country, Peru holds 21.8% of global silver reserves, which triggered a silver rally. Driven by sector spillover effects, platinum and palladium also rose accordingly. The subsequent decline was concentrated on Friday, when platinum and palladium plunged sharply intraday. Trump's visit to China eased tariff expectations and suppressed strategic resource premiums, while a rising US dollar index and elevated medium- to long-term US Treasury yields jointly weighed on precious metal valuations. On the Middle East geopolitical front: Gulf states discussed post-war regional governance. Saudi Arabia proposed a non-aggression pact, and Israel's defense minister stated that military action against Iran might be taken again. On the US Fed front: the US Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed Chairman by a vote of 54 to 45. However, Powell is expected to remain as a Fed governor. This vote marked the most partisan-divided confirmation in history. "The strongest dissenting governor" Miran officially submitted his resignation on Thursday, stating that the current interest rates were too high. On trade and tariffs: during Trump's visit to China, the two sides reached multiple important consensuses, agreeing to manage tariff differences and restart dedicated trade negotiations. The US suspended new tariffs on China and will gradually reduce punitive tariffs. Both sides enhanced strategic mutual trust and expanded cooperation across multiple areas, laying an important foundation for the easing and stable development of bilateral relations. In terms of supply: South Africa's power shortage eased significantly, and PGM mine expansions progressed; Nornickel's Q1 platinum and palladium production declined sharply, mainly due to Western sanctions affecting its payments, logistics, and equipment imports. Nornickel's platinum and palladium production is expected to see significant production cuts in 2026. On the demand side: PGM demand from the fiberglass industry showed positive momentum. In 2026, China's fiberglass industry is expected to shift from platinum-based to palladium-based applications, with multiple enterprises deploying related technologies and considerable substitution potential. Recent precious metals market trading focused on uncertainties arising from recurring Middle East geopolitical conflicts, US Fed monetary policy expectations, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics, the implementation of power rationing in Peru, and speeches by US Fed officials, as well as palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.