[Spot silicon metal prices edge higher in a narrow range before stabilizing]: In early August, the supply contraction from production cuts at silicon enterprises on the supply side and bullish price drivers from PV policy had already been realized in stages. Silicon metal futures shifted to narrow-range consolidation after prices rose. In August, fundamentals improved, with strong support below prices limiting downside room. On the upside, without new positive catalysts, upward momentum is insufficient to deliver a trending rally, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts may shift prices to consolidation.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was around 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was near 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract was disturbed by supply-side production cut news and PV anti-involution bullish sentiment, causing the most-traded silicon metal futures contract to trend stronger. Silicon enterprises' quotes were generally stable, with a strong willingness to sell. Watch for the impact of variables on short-term price spikes, with resistance above focused on silicon enterprises' willingness to sell. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 31.6-33.5 yuan/kg. Currently, most manufacturers continue to hold back from selling, market transactions are very few, but expectations for price hikes are relatively common. Some forward traders received higher quotes, with some prices even exceeding 40 yuan. However, this is limited to forward traders. Spot trading is currently basically at a standstill, awaiting the outcome of today's meeting.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Brief] Silicone: The transaction price of the most-traded contract is 11,800-12,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of approximately 11,900 yuan/mt. Currently, most monomer enterprises received some pre-sale orders when market prices were low earlier, providing support that has led some monomer enterprises to suspend quoting, pending resumption after the industry conference in August. Wafer: Market prices for 18X wafers are 0.8-0.824 yuan/piece, for 210RN wafers are 0.896-0.926 yuan/piece, and for 210N wafers are 1.1-1.128 yuan/piece. The 210R price is still slightly softening, while the low end of the price range for other wafer dimensions remains relatively firm. Going forward, the potential for another sharp decline in wafer prices is expected to be relatively small.

[Tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensifies, silicon metal price fluctuations widen]: During the week, silicon metal futures prices fell below cost support, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market intensified. Silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan with production resumption plans have basically completed their production resumptions. Supply disruptions in the north have limited impact on total production expectations, and industry fundamentals have yet to show a directional turning point. Clear cost support on the downside limits the downside room for prices; however, the supply-demand loose pattern remains unchanged, and upward moves lack fundamental drivers.

[2026 H1 Silicon Metal Market Review and Outlook: Price Fluctuation Range Narrowed Amid Cost Support and Demand Pressure] Price side: Looking back at H1 2026, affected by low capacity utilization rate of silicon metal, limited demand growth, and silicon metal already trading at relatively low levels, the spot silicon metal price fluctuation range was sharply narrowed under lower-end cost support and upper-end demand pressure. According to SMM price data, the fluctuation range of spot silicon metal prices in 2025 was 38%, while in H1 2026, it narrowed to within 5%. Futures price side, the fluctuation range of the most-traded silicon metal futures contract was 59% in 2025, narrowing to 14% in H1 2026.

[SMM Analysis: Looking back at H1 2026, the polysilicon market, due to prominent overcapacity issues compounded by historical inventory and other factors, although occasionally rebounding on the back of policy expectations, the overall downward "downtrend" persisted. Looking ahead to H2 2026, SMM believes that from the supply-demand or capacity side, it is difficult to see significant spontaneous improvement. Key focus areas are policy expectations and cost dynamics—cost determines the price floor, while policy determines the price trend.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Module Hold-Price Sentiment Edges Up, Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stable] Last week, mainstream transaction prices in China changed little, but the price spread between high and low prices remained large. EXW prices from enterprises competing for orders have recently started approaching 0.65 Yuan/W, though trading volume was limited. Mainstream tax-inclusive delivered prices in China stayed above 0.7 Yuan/W, and current quotations from top-tier players are still relatively high. The market exhibited a situation where half are holding prices firm while the other half are selling at low prices. Currently, high-efficiency distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N modules are quoted at 0.731 Yuan/W, 0.736 Yuan/W, and 0.739 Yuan/W, respectively; and centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7185 Yuan/W, 0.7385 Yuan/W, and 0.729 Yuan/W, respectively.

[Sichuan-Yunnan Silicon Enterprises’ Operating Rate Increase Puts Silicon Metal Market Under Pressure]: On the supply side, the rainy season production resumptions at silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan have pushed operating rates higher. From a supply-demand balance perspective, the silicon metal supply growth outpaces demand growth in June-July, leaving theoretical industry inventory in a buildup state. Fundamentals are weak, and coupled with a lack of recent positive news to provide a boost, the silicon metal market lacks sufficient upward momentum and has limited downside support from costs. Overall, prices are in the doldrums within a narrow range.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polysilicon: The quotation for N-type recharging polysilicon is 32-34.2 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remain generally weak. A few large-volume orders are currently under negotiation, with the market watching for subsequent outcomes and policy developments. Wafers: Market prices for 183mm wafers stand at 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.98-1.00 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.16-1.20 yuan/piece. The low-end prices of 183mm and 210N wafers also show a downward trend, widening the price range across all wafer sizes. Top-tier players are holding prices, while smaller enterprises have concluded deals at lower prices.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Module Price-holding Sentiment Increases Somewhat, Polysilicon Prices Remain Stable Temporarily] Last week, distributed module prices in China were mostly stable, and enterprises' willingness to hold prices firm increased somewhat, especially among some second-tier companies that had previously seen larger price declines. On the centralized side, projects have increased recently, but prices have started to decline. The lowest ex-factory price for some orders under delivery has fallen to 0.68 Yuan/W, and new order prices have also dipped below 0.7 Yuan/W. Currently, quotes for distributed high-efficiency Topcon modules are: 183 (0.734 Yuan/W), 210R (0.740 Yuan/W), and 210N (0.7425 Yuan/W); for centralized, Topcon 182/183 (0.721 Yuan/W) and 210N (0.741 Yuan/W).