Donald Trump's tariff threat following his second presidential term inauguration on January 20 has already sparked speculation among aluminium industry leaders from both the domestic and international markets, prompting them to make strategic decisions regarding overseas trade.

US President Trump's tariff policies not only impacted foreign exporters but also harmed US multinational corporations with production sites outside the country. Alcoa, the largest aluminum producer in the US, is one of the "victims." Since taking office in January this year, Trump has announced a series of tariff policies. Currently, the US imposes a 25% tariff on aluminum imports. On Wednesday local time, Alcoa stated that due to US tariffs on aluminum imports from Canada, the company lost approximately $20 million in the first quarter ending March 31. The company also expects that losses in the current quarter (Q2) will reach around $90 million. "About 70% of the aluminum we produce in Canada is shipped to the US, and now it is subject to a 25% tariff," Alcoa CEO William Oplinger said during an earnings call on Wednesday. Alcoa sources some of its raw materials from Chinese suppliers. The company anticipates that hefty US tariffs on China will increase its annual costs by $10 million to $15 million due to the lack of suitable alternative suppliers. Alcoa is headquartered in Pittsburgh and produces aluminum not only in the US but also in Canada, Iceland, Australia, and other locations. According to US Department of Commerce data, Canada is the largest source of US aluminum imports, exporting $11 billion worth of primary aluminum and aluminum products to the US last year. In total, the US imported $27 billion worth of aluminum last year, with other sources including China, Mexico, and others. Trump's aluminum tariffs aim to boost US aluminum production. Data shows that last year, US smelters produced only 670,000 mt of aluminum, compared to 3.7 million mt in 2000. In recent years, smelters in various parts of the US, including Kentucky and Missouri, have shut down, making the country heavily reliant on aluminum imports to meet domestic demand. Speaking about the current US capacity, Oplinger said on Wednesday, "Even if all idle smelting capacity is restarted, the US will still face a 3.6 million mt aluminum shortfall." He also stated, "Until additional smelting capacity is built in the US, the most efficient aluminum supply chain is to continue allowing Canadian aluminum to flow into the US." At the end of February this year, Alcoa warned that Trump's tariffs on aluminum imports could lead to the loss of about 100,000 jobs in the US and would not increase US aluminum production.

According to media reports, in the potential acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel Corporation, the US government is expected to obtain "golden shares" in US Steel, which would grant the US government veto power over decision-making at the company. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the arrangement is still under negotiation between the government and the companies, and the specific scope of the veto power, as well as the US government's stance on the current merger and acquisition agreement, remains unclear. Last Friday (May 23), US President Trump stated on social media that the "planned cooperation" between US Steel and Nippon Steel would create 70,000 jobs and generate $14 billion in economic benefits. Investors believe that Trump's statement implies that Nippon Steel has secured approval for the long-planned acquisition. According to multiple media reports, Nippon Steel plans to acquire US Steel at $55 per share and invest an additional $14 billion. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that of the $14 billion mentioned by Trump, Nippon Steel will invest approximately $11 billion by 2028. This includes over $2 billion for renovating the Mon Valley plant, $200 million for building a new R&D center, and $3.1 billion for upgrading US Steel's largest plant in Indiana. In addition, Nippon Steel will invest $3 billion in Big River Steel in Arkansas, with part of the funds going towards building electrical steel capacity to strengthen the US power grid. The company will also invest $800 million in an iron ore mine in Minnesota and $500 million in Alabama. Regarding the "golden shares," according to Japanese media, the powers granted by these shares will be included as part of the US national security agreement. Sources familiar with the matter said it is unclear whether this power implies that the US government holds equity in the company or is merely a mitigation measure. It is worth noting that Trump plans to hold a rally in Pittsburgh, where US Steel's headquarters are located, this Friday. He may promote the deal as a victory for his tariff policies and protection of American workers. However, according to sources familiar with the matter, all parties are still negotiating the details. Without explicit approval of the existing merger and acquisition agreement, these companies will not appear on stage with Trump at his rally. Pennsylvania Republican Senator and Trump ally Dave McCormick told the media on Tuesday that some arrangements are essentially finalized, as Trump announced last week. McCormick said, "The control structure will be somewhat unique. The CEO will be American, and the majority of board members will be Americans. Additionally, there will be golden shares, with some board members approved by the US government, which will enable the US to ensure that production will not be cut, and so on." Even if a deal is reached, Trump would still have to overturn the Biden administration's decision to block the transaction on national security grounds.

[Heavy to torrential rain in some areas; a new round of strong precipitation to hit south China starting from May 27] The cold air process that has been affecting most parts of China since May 21 is currently coming to an end. Today, rainfall will continue in Yunnan, Guangxi, Sichuan, and other regions. The Central Meteorological Observatory forecasts that starting from May 27, a new round of strong precipitation weather process will occur in south China. There is a high risk of meteorological disasters such as mountain torrents and geological disasters in regions like Guangdong and Yunnan.