The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has delivered a direct and material external shock to Southeast Asia’s energy supply structure. Solar (PV) is emerging as the main alternative for reducing exposure to fossil fuel price volatility. However, the structural tension between accelerating PV penetration and entrenched electricity market models will be the decisive factor governing the region’s energy transition pace.

In March, total exports of copper wire rod (HS codes 74081100 and 74081900) weakened, showing a MoM decline but YoY growth. The specific data are as follows: According to customs data, in terms of total copper cathode wire rod exports, total exports of copper cathode wire rod (HS code 74081100, 74081900) in March were down 1.27% MoM but up 73.71% YoY. Among them, exports of refined copper wire with a maximum cross-section dimension >6mm were 13,600 mt, down 21.73% MoM but up 100.86% YoY. Exports of other refined copper wire were 11,900 mt per month, up 40.79% MoM and up 50.47% YoY. In March 2026, exports of copper wire rod (HS code 74081100, 74081900) declined MoM, primarily due to chain reactions triggered by escalating geopolitical conflicts, compounded by a cyclical pullback in the prior export pace. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts disrupted international shipping and drove up logistics costs, significantly increasing the difficulty and cost of exports. This, combined with the onset of the off-season following the concentrated release of earlier orders, collectively dragged down exports. By specific trade mode, in March 2026, processing trade with imported materials accounted for 58.55% of total copper wire rod exports, processing trade with supplied materials accounted for 26.9%, Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area accounted for 11.83%, and Ordinary Trade accounted for 2.71%. By country, in March, copper wire rod was mainly exported to Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and India, with combined exports accounting for over 70% of the national total. Notably, Saudi Arabia's ranking pulled back sharply from first to seventh place, with exports plunging 87.4% MoM. This was mainly due to the continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which weakened domestic demand in Saudi Arabia and slowed down the procurement pace in infrastructure, power grid, and other sectors. Compounded by disruptions in regional shipping, logistics, and customs clearance, trade flows were hampered, leading to a decline in exports. In summary, copper wire rod exports pulled back MoM in March, mainly due to the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts and periodic disruptions in shipping logistics. Overseas trade channels were obstructed, shipping schedules were extended, and transport capacity was tight, causing the export pace to slow down significantly. Entering April, as geopolitical tensions gradually eased, shipping and trade conditions improved. Combined with the gradual recovery of downstream procurement demand outside China, overall copper wire rod exports in April are expected to rebound MoM.

April 21, 2026, the Philippines continues to scale its solar infrastructure with several major projects. The 197 MW Citicore Solar Batangas 1 project, paired with 320 MWh of storage, is already operational. ACEN’s 585 MW SanMar project in Zambales has brought its first two phases (384 MW) online, with full completion expected in 2027. Additionally, the massive Terra Solar project achieved grid synchronization in February, marking a critical step toward its 3.5 GW solar and 4.5 GWh storage capacity. With plans for GEA-7 focused on ground-mounted, rooftop, and floating systems, the country is rapidly accelerating its renewable energy deployment to meet 2035 targets.

April 21, 2026, IRENA’s Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 report indicates that the Philippines installed 899 MW of solar in 2025, bringing the cumulative capacity to 3,892 MW by the end of the year. While ground-mounted projects dominate, the market is expanding through the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Green Energy Auction (GEA) program and a growing commercial and industrial segment. Analysts note that further growth is expected in 2026 as the country works toward a target of procuring an additional 25 GW of renewables by 2035, supported by policy improvements like streamlining net-metering processes.

Data from the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in March 2026 totaled 2,629,996.23 mt, up 13.84% MoM and up 9.99% YoY. China imported 820,975.96 mt of copper ore and concentrates from Chile in March, up 9.86% MoM and up 1.61% YoY. China imported 655,587.09 mt of copper ore and concentrates from Peru in March, up 33.96% MoM and up 17.12% YoY. Export side, China's exports of copper ore and concentrates in March 2026 totaled 441.66 mt, up 57,483.31% MoM and up 4,788.37% YoY. China exported 440.29 mt of copper ore and concentrates to Mongolia in March, up 204,684.65% MoM and up 44,028,600.00% YoY. China exported 0.63 mt of copper ore and concentrates to the UK in March, up 108.67% MoM and up 5,116.67% YoY. Below is a breakdown of import data compiled from the website of China's General Administration of Customs: Origin Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Chile 820,975.96 9.86% 1.61% Peru 655,587.09 33.96% 17.12% Mongolia 216,179.71 8.99% 30.00% Russia 130,003.95 84.67% 120.85% Kazakhstan 113,192.78 1.84% -3.49% Mexico 110,475.43 -6.45% -0.58% Serbia 88,460.26 38.98% 68.17% DRC 67,621.60 66.76% 70.74% Ecuador 60,735.30 83.44% -13.98% Australia 53,948.73 25.39% 51.52% Canada 49,086.07 -25.93% 168.17% Brazil 47,986.63 -16.70% 99.48% Armenia 26,008.34 1.92% 51.56% Botswana 23,428.58 -25.88% -35.58% Oman 21,629.46 1,290.47% 587.34% Spain 21,091.23 -59.50% -79.07% Laos 20,138.62 74.01% -3.91% Saudi Arabia 14,005.64 -61.74% -74.34% Philippines 13,780.69 33.35% 916.20% Zambia 10,402.22 -2.43% 523.63% South Africa 10,120.44 8,000.50% 205.01% Eritrea 9,909.68 5.40% -68.35% Turkey 7,500.47 -16.77% -29.31% Morocco 6,694.51 317.57% 189.56% Pakistan 5,754.75 12.62% 1,086.79% UAE 4,527.43 285.35% - Iran 3,531.54 92.06% 2,207,112.50% Namibia 3,359.64 247.39% -8.90% Albania 2,334.52 0.50% 99.12% Dominican Republic 2,297.50 -19.65% -57.56% India 2,149.50 -56.08% 42,989,900.00% Mauritania 1,895.04 0% -71.28% Nicaragua 937.32 700.81% -4.92% Myanmar 893.12 182.94% -53.26% Zimbabwe 729.18 832.99% 458.03% Cambodia 556.34 94.91% - Congo Republic 491.01 117.10% -10.06% Bolivia 431.23 -82.07% 0.62% Colombia 363.69 -94.35% 169.39% Madagascar 308.2 -53.36% 83.45% Tanzania 131.99 -40.54% 73.23% Nigeria 131.36 366.97% 1,313,500.00% Malaysia 79.49 -99.75% 1,135,428.57% Thailand 75.38 - - Vietnam 54.54 -73.90% -83.73% Netherlands 0.07 195.65% 65.85% Romania 0.01 - -100.00% Total 2,629,996.23 13.84% 9.99% Data source: General Administration of Customs Below is a breakdown of export data compiled from the website of China's General Administration of Customs: Destination Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Mongolia 440.29 204,684.65% 44,028,600.00% UK 0.63 108.67% 5,116.67% Netherlands 0.45 156.00% 44,700.00% Belgium 0.21 994.74% 890.48% Australia 0.04 18.75% - Oman 0.01 - - Chile 0.01 0% - India 0.01 100.00% - Total 441.66 57,483.31% 4,788.37% Data source: General Administration of Customs

According to the latest customs data, galvanized sheet exports totaled 1.157 million mt in March 2026, up 30.13% MoM and up 7.48% YoY. Cumulative galvanized sheet exports from January to March reached 3.2512 million mt, down 4.02% YoY.

The Department of Energy of Philippines has confirmed that the seventh Green Energy Auction (GEA-7) will launch in 2026, with the terms of reference expected in Q2. The auction will cover rooftop, ground-mounted, and floating solar, with floating solar including unsubscribed capacity from GEA-4. The program will allocate capacity nationwide but significantly increase allocations in Mindanao, potentially around five times larger than previous rounds to stimulate regional investment. Ground-mounted solar projects must include battery energy storage systems to enhance grid stability. Rooftop and ground-mounted projects are targeted to begin operations in 2027, while floating solar projects are expected between 2027 and 2029.

According to China News Service, on April 16, at the plant of Jiuquan Iron and Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. in Jiayuguan City, Gansu Province, automated equipment was producing a new generation of zinc-aluminum-magnesium products. It was reported that the group assembled a specialized team to tackle zinc-aluminum-magnesium technology. Against the backdrop of formidable external technical barriers and the absence of batch production track records in China, the team spent six years of intensive efforts to produce China's first coil of zinc-aluminum-magnesium products with proprietary intellectual property rights. At the end of 2025, JISCO's new generation of zinc-aluminum-magnesium products was unveiled. This product category represents the most technically challenging variety in the hot-dip galvanizing industry. JISCO is the only company in China to have achieved large-scale batch production, filling the technological gap in related fields in China. The products have been successfully applied in highly corrosive environments such as cooling towers, motor housings, energy storage, and offshore PV, and have been exported to multiple countries including Thailand, the Philippines, and Argentina.

【SMM Steel】Potential fuel shortages are raising concerns across the Philippines' nickel, steel, and cement sectors. A national energy emergency was declared on Mar 24 due to global oil supply disruptions. Diesel prices have surged over 80%. Some nickel mines risk suspension. Steel producers are implementing cost controls. Large-scale shutdowns aren't expected yet, but industry remains under pressure.

The Philippines Department of Energy ('DOE') is accelerating the grid entry of 12 solar projects totaling 1,284 MW for April operation. This move aims to mitigate the impact of Middle East developments on global oil markets. These solar installations, alongside 10 other renewable projects, will bring 1,471 MW of accelerated capacity online. The 'DOE' is actively coordinating with grid and regulatory bodies to resolve interconnection, inspection, and registration requirements to prevent delays. This rapid deployment supports the nation's target of a 35% renewable energy share by 2030 and follows recent plans to auction an additional 25 GW of green energy capacity by 2035 under its flagship auction program.