[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[SMM Chrome Weekly Review: Weak Demand Performance, Market Remained in the Doldrums] News on April 3, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore markets saw limited fluctuations...

The gold price set a technical signal last week while providing fresh fuel for the debate over its future direction.

This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China held steady at 10,100-10,200 yuan/mt; prices for the same grade of stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan dropped back slightly, with the price range at 9,700-10,000 yuan/mt. Raw material production cost side, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,218.64 yuan/mt, while the production cost of using only high-grade NPI was 14,745.57 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices remained largely stable, mainly as supportive and constraining factors were intertwined, with no obvious one-way trend. Stainless steel finished product prices edged down under pressure from weaker SS futures, and market sentiment was somewhat disturbed, but this did not directly transmit to the stainless steel scrap market, where prices remained stable. Substitute furnace charge performed steadily, with both high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices largely stable this week and showing no obvious fluctuations in change, so their overall impact in driving stainless steel scrap prices was limited and failed to provide effective support or drag. Factors supporting the stable performance of stainless steel scrap prices were more prominent. The recent tightness in stainless steel scrap tax invoices eased somewhat, improving the market trading environment. Meanwhile, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI remained in place. In addition, stainless steel mills' April production schedules stayed high, and steel mills increased their use of stainless steel scrap with economic advantages, lifting recent market trading activity, while previously accumulated inventory pressure also eased to some extent, providing strong support for stable prices. However, constraining factors also remained. Stainless steel finished product prices currently faced difficulty moving higher, and under this transmission effect, stainless steel scrap prices still faced some pressure to rise, making any obvious upward trend difficult to emerge. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a pattern of "strong support, clear constraints, and stable prices." Supportive and constraining factors counterbalanced each other, and stainless steel scrap prices were expected to remain stable in the short term.

[Traders Held Firm Offers, and Spot Premiums Continued to Rise]: Spot premiums in Shanghai kept rising this week, up 30 yuan/mt WoW in terms of the weekly average price. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 40-50 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract..

[SMM Steel] Nucor expects Q1 2026 earnings to increase modestly versus Q4 2025, with the Steel Mills division seeing the largest improvement. The company also anticipates better performance in its raw materials segment, while steel products earnings are expected to remain broadly stable. Pricing pressure continues to challenge North American producers, indicating profitability is increasingly driven by pricing discipline and value-added product mix.

As production order fully resumed after the Chinese New Year, the sodium-ion battery industry chain saw a strong recovery in March. Production across the four major segments—cathode, anode, electrolyte, and battery cell—posted substantial growth both YoY and MoM, with industry prosperity rebounding markedly.

[Consumption Performance Varied Across Market Segments, and Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Operating Rates Are Expected to Decline Next Week] From the order performance perspective, terminal hardware enterprises had already completed stockpiling at low price levels earlier, and demand was suppressed after prices rose recently. Overall, orders across various die-casting zinc alloy segments showed mediocre performance. Among them, zipper hardware was in the peak consumption season, and relatively solid demand was broadly in line with enterprise expectations......

On March 29, the groundbreaking ceremony was held for the non-production supporting facilities of the 91,000 mt high-performance aluminum alloy cast-rolled coil project undertaken by China Second Metallurgical Group. This marked the official launch of the project’s construction and its entry into the substantive construction phase.