Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened lower with a gap at $1,979.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session, and then after entering the European session, it fell first before recovering. During the session, it hit a low of $1,973/mt and a high of $1,987/mt, before giving back some gains near the close, eventually settling at $1,985/mt, up 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,505 yuan/mt, briefly touching a high of 16,520 yuan/mt in early trading as bears reduced positions. However, due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday-related downstream shutdown plans, the lack of lead ingot consumption capped gains, and SHFE lead moved sideways in a narrow range before closing at 16,470 yuan/mt, unchanged. On the macro front: The US Fed removed its bias toward cutting interest rates, and the dot plot showed nine officials projected rate hikes this year. Inventory at the largest US oil storage hub plummeted to critically low levels. US retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, above the market expectation of 0.5%. The People's Bank of China established a repo facility for overseas central bank-type institutions. The PBOC also optimized the mechanism for temporary overnight reverse repo and repo operations in the open market. The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Implementing the Employment-First Strategy." Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rose sharply, and suppliers sold cargoes along with the rally, but there was considerable divergence in selling interest, with some widening their discounts. Mainstream production area electrolytic lead quotations ranged from discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In secondary lead, smelter losses narrowed, but more smelters underwent maintenance, so market supplies were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few deals negotiated at discounts of 100 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises' risk-off sentiment subsided, but they remained cautious in purchasing high-priced lead, and most held a wait-and-see stance. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, downstream enterprises planned to shut down, further dampening trading activity. Inventory: On June 18, LME lead inventory fell by 25 mt to 303,650 mt. As of June 15, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, up 3,000 mt from June 8 and up 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast for today: On the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, combined with mid-year account closing effects that led some enterprises to suspend shipments or payments, wait-and-see sentiment was heavy and some transactions were halted. With more smelters undergoing maintenance on the supply side and the delivery factor already materialized, expectations for post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup are limited. Attention should be paid to the pace of downstream restarts after the holiday and its impact on lead price movements.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: US Fed Expected to Hold June FOMC Meeting, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidates at Highs Above 420,000]

SMM Nickel Jun 15 News: Macro and Market News: (1) As the Iran war neared the four-month mark, US-Iran peace talks achieved a breakthrough. The US, Iran, and key mediator Pakistan all indicated that an agreement had been reached and would be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday. (2) The People's Bank of China announced that on the 15th, it would conduct a 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation with a 6-month (183-day) tenor, using a fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple-price auction method. Given that 600 billion yuan of this tenor matured during the month, this 6-month outright reverse repo operation was a full rollover. Spot Market: On Jun 15, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,650 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel range was -500-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2607 contract strengthened throughout the morning session, closing the morning at 136,120 yuan/mt, up 1.27%. The US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding in Islamabad, extending the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days. The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, and both sides have declared an end to hostilities and will formally sign the agreement this Friday. The recovering macro sentiment supported a collective rebound in non-ferrous metals prices; however, the extent of the nickel price rebound remained capped by inventory, with nickel prices expected to range between 133,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

The People's Bank of China announced that it would conduct a 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on the 15th, using a fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple price bidding method, with a term of 6 months (183 days). Given that the matured amount for this tenor in the current month is 600 billion yuan, this 6-month outright reverse repo operation is a rollover of the same amount.

[Domestic and overseas aluminum prices see a modest simultaneous recovery; China's destocking stabilizes with limited upside room] SMM maintains its assessment that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June or early July. The futures market sees short-term stabilization signals, but high domestic inventory pressure remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief: The most-traded contract's center pulled back, logging a 5% drop, while the spot market's trading recovered]

SMM Nickel News May 25: Macro and market news: (1) Waller was sworn in, emphasizing that the US Fed will be "reform-oriented"; US Fed Governor Waller: The current stance is to keep rates stable in the near term. If inflation expectations become unanchored, rate hikes will be needed. (2) The PBOC announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a tenor of 1 year. Spot market: On May 25, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways in a narrow range during the morning session, closing at 143,810 yuan/mt, up 0.23%. Global visible inventory of refined nickel remains at high levels, and weak consumption is unable to quickly digest the surplus inventory. Nickel prices lack upward momentum, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways within the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

The PBOC announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a tenor of 1 year through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method.

SMM Nickel News May 22: Macro and market news: (1) Chinese Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 21 to study work related to advancing the building of a unified national market, reviewed and approved the "Modernization of Emergency System Construction 15th Five-Year Plan," and discussed the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China (Revised Draft)." The meeting noted the need to further advance high-standard connectivity of market facilities, smooth economic circulation, and effectively reduce logistics costs across society. (2) US Secretary of State Rubio said on May 21 that the US is engaging with Cuba and hopes to reach an agreement through negotiations, but there has been no substantive progress so far, and the likelihood of reaching an agreement is low. Spot market: On May 22, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,250 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged at -400-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways in a narrow range during the morning session, closing at 143,530 yuan/mt, down 0.59%. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways within the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt. The downside is supported by bottom cost support from sulfur prices fluctuating at highs; the upside is capped by the dual pressure of continued inventory buildup on both the LME and in China.

On May 9, to strengthen financial rule of law and improve the central bank's legal and regulatory framework, the People's Bank of China plans to formulate the "Administrative Measures for Business Processing of the National Unified Centralized Account Management System" and is now soliciting public comments.