July 20, 2026 Since the spring of 2026, something unusual has been unfolding in the gold market. Countries that had been among the world's largest buyers of gold for years have suddenly begun selling their reserves. These sales are taking place quietly. They are not announced publicly, and the transactions only appear in central bank data weeks or even months later. Those who look closely quickly realize that these are not routine portfolio adjustments. Instead, something far more significant is happening right before our eyes, largely unnoticed. What we are witnessing is a silent emergency response to an economic shock that is placing enormous strain on the global financial system: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a consequence of the Iran war. The logic becomes clear once the underlying mechanism is understood. Roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If that route is blocked, oil prices rise sharply, forcing oil-importing countries to obtain additional U.S. dollars to pay their energy bills. For a central bank, the fastest way to raise those dollars is by selling its most liquid dollar-denominated assets—typically U.S. Treasury securities. However, once those holdings have been largely exhausted and additional dollars are still required, gold often becomes the only remaining dollar-convertible reserve asset. Turkey Illustrates the Entire Drama No country demonstrates this process more clearly than Turkey. In March 2026, following the U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran that began in late February, the Turkish central bank reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries from US$15.7 billion to US$1.8 billion —a reduction of nearly 90% in just one month . Once that buffer had been depleted, the central bank turned to its gold reserves. During the first two weeks of the Iran war alone, it sold or pledged approximately 58 tonnes of gold , worth around US$8 billion , from reserves totaling roughly US$130 billion . This was not a strategic shift away from gold. Rather, it was a sign of financial distress. After all, no country willingly sells its gold simply to pay for gasoline and diesel as long as better alternatives remain available. Turkey is not an isolated case. It is merely the most visible example of a broader group of countries that Jay Martin , publisher of the commodity newsletter Capital 10X , describes as "oil-importing emerging markets." This group includes India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Egypt, Pakistan, Vietnam, and South Africa . They all share two characteristics: they depend heavily on imported oil, and they hold a significant portion of their national savings in U.S. Treasury securities. When oil prices surge, these countries are among the first to come under financial pressure. The Sri Lanka Pattern: When Running Out of Money Leads to Empty Shelves Sri Lanka's experience in 2022 demonstrates what happens once a country has exhausted its reserves. The country imports nearly everything required to keep its economy functioning—fuel, medicine, and food—and pays for those imports in U.S. dollars. When tourism collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic, Sri Lanka's foreign exchange reserves fell from US$7.6 billion at the end of 2019 to just US$50 million by the spring of 2022. The consequences were as predictable as they were dramatic. Fuel first became scarce and eventually disappeared altogether. Medicines could no longer be purchased abroad. Food prices skyrocketed, while nationwide power outages lasted for hours at a time. Public anger escalated rapidly. In July 2022, hundreds of thousands of protesters stormed the presidential residence, forcing the country's president to flee. The difference between then and now is crucial. Sri Lanka's crisis resulted from the collapse of tourism and affected only one country. A global energy shock, by contrast, affects many countries simultaneously. The chain reaction, however, is identical. Every country that sells U.S. Treasuries puts downward pressure on bond prices, making other countries nervous and encouraging them to sell as well. Each sale increases the likelihood of the next. What Washington Is Really Doing—And What It Reveals Two quiet actions by the U.S. government demonstrate how seriously Washington views the situation. First, the United States is drawing down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a record pace. Anyone who believes this is primarily intended to help American motorists ahead of the congressional elections in November is not entirely wrong—but that explanation does not tell the whole story. The U.S. is also shipping part of those reserves overseas, an unusual move given that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is intended for domestic emergencies. Second, in an effort to reduce mounting pressure on the U.S. Treasury market, the U.S. Treasury Department has quietly eased sanctions on Russian oil twice. This is occurring in the middle of a war in which Russia is on the opposing side. That step is equally extraordinary and suggests that the United States itself is under considerable pressure. The motivation behind both measures is the same. Washington wants to prevent vulnerable emerging-market economies from collapsing and triggering a wave of Treasury selling that could destabilize the U.S. bond market. Falling prices for U.S. government bonds mean weaker investor demand and higher borrowing costs for issuers. Neither outcome is desirable for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed his preference for lower interest rates. If the system were truly stable, none of these extraordinary measures would be necessary. Their implementation suggests that the pressure is not confined to individual emerging markets. The United States itself now finds it necessary to intervene in order to stabilize global financial markets. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/why-countries-are-selling-their-gold-and-what-s-really-behind-it

[SMM Analysis: China's Phosphate Ore Imports Increased MoM in June; Egypt's Share Plunged as Substitute Supplies from Jordan, Morocco, etc. Surged] July 20, 2026, sourced from customs data. In June 2026, China's phosphate ore imports were 137,000 mt, edging up 4.5% MoM from 131,000 mt in May. Total import value was $12.567 million, up 2.8% MoM. The average import unit price was $91.5/mt, edging down 1.7% from $93.0/mt in May.

In H1 this year, Anhui's vehicle exports surpassed one million units, five months earlier than last year," said Jiang Kaiyuan, deputy director of Hefei Customs, recently. It is reported that last year, Anhui province became the first province in China to exceed one million units in annual vehicle exports; in just six months this year, the province's vehicle exports reached 1.006 million units, up 1.2x YoY. During the same period, China's vehicle exports reached 5.096 million units, up 65.3% YoY, exceeding 5 million units for the first time in a half-year period.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: US Fed Rate Policy Tone Tug-of-War; Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moved Sideways in the Morning]

SMM July 16 news: Metal market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally fell. Only LME nickel rose, up 0.48%. SHFE tin led the decline with a 2.04% drop. LME tin and SHFE zinc both fell over 1%, with LME tin down 1.33% and SHFE zinc down 1.03%. Gains in other metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.18%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.28%. Overnight in the ferrous metals sector, iron ore closed flat at 759.5 yuan/mt. Rebar, HRC, and stainless steel all saw slight fluctuations in gains. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.11%, while coke rose 0.63%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.07%, while COMEX silver fell 1.7%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.03%, while SHFE silver fell 1.43%. As of 6:49 a.m. on July 16, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): H1 GDP Up 4.7% YoY, National Economy Operating Within a Reasonable Range, New Momentum Growing Rapidly] NBS data showed that preliminary estimates indicate H1 GDP reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, up 4.7% YoY based on constant prices. By industry, primary industry added value was 3,152.2 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY; secondary industry added value was 25,047.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% YoY; and tertiary industry added value was 41,370.9 billion yuan, up 5.2% YoY. In terms of quarters, Q1 GDP rose 5.0% YoY, while Q2 grew 4.3% YoY. On a QoQ basis, Q2 GDP increased 0.9%. Overall, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in H1, with new quality productive forces being cultivated and strengthened, and high-quality development progressing with new improvements. However, we must also note that external uncertainties and destabilizing factors remain abundant, and the contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand is still pronounced; the foundation for economic improvement needs to be further consolidated. In the next stage, we will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, intensifying counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, continuously expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, enhancing growth drivers while revitalizing existing resources, focusing on building a strong domestic market, accelerating the cultivation of new growth momentum, and intensifying efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, so as to promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy. [PBoC: H1 Aggregate Social Financing Increased by 20.84 Trillion, New Loans 10.72 Trillion, June M2 Up 8% YoY] Preliminary PBoC statistics show that the outstanding stock of aggregate social financing at end-June 2026 was 462.06 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in H1 was 20.84 trillion yuan, up 7.4% YoY. In H1, RMB loans increased by 10.72 trillion yuan. At end-June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 356.71 trillion yuan, up 8% YoY. That of narrow money (M1) was 118.48 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.74 trillion yuan, up 11.8% YoY. In H1, net cash injection was 641.7 billion yuan. On the dollar front: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.42% to 100.51, recording a two-session losing streak. The US Fed's latest Beige Book showed that from late May through June, US economic activity improved mildly, with 11 of the 12 Fed districts achieving growth. Inflation was mild overall, but forecasts for the inflation outlook varied across districts, and uncertainty over energy prices was the biggest variable affecting the outlook. The labour market was solid, with employment expanding slightly, but a shortage of skilled workers pushed up wages. (Wall Street Insights) Buffett Warren said that the new Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin is the "right person" for the position. "I think he will do his best to fulfil the task entrusted to him, which is to achieve 2% inflation and maintain full employment." "He cannot be perfect, just as I know I cannot be perfect in managing other people's money and earning excess returns." "He has the country's interests at heart, and I believe many Fed officials do as well. That does not mean their decisions are always perfect, but sometimes those decisions are indeed extremely difficult." (CNBC) President Trump Donald stated that pausing rate action would be better than raising rates for the Fed. He reiterated his desire for (policy) rates to fall, saying, "we should have the lowest interest rates in the world." "I respect Fed Chairman Warsh." Fed Governor Cook Lisa stated that as artificial intelligence (AI) buildouts continue and recent supply shocks push up prices, the risk of persistently high inflation outweighs the risk of a weakening labour market. In a speech prepared for an event in Washington on Wednesday, Cook Lisa said, "If we do not soon see signs that inflation continues to pull back, I am prepared to act. I am firmly committed to achieving the inflation target, and this commitment will not waver." (from the Wall Street Insights APP) According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July was 88.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike was 11.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September was 51.2%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike was 44%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike was 4.7%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, data to be released include the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, US June retail sales MoM, US July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US July NAHB housing market index, US May business inventories MoM, US June pending home sales index MoM, as well as UK May three-month GDP MoM, UK May manufacturing output MoM, UK May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK May industrial production MoM, etc. Furthermore, the Ministry of Commerce held its second regular press conference of July, US Fed Governor Lisa Cook spoke on the economic outlook, US Vice President Vance delivered remarks, the US Fed released its Beige Book on economic conditions, US President Trump delivered a speech, 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem gave a speech, and TSMC held its Q2 2026 earnings call. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose, with WTI up 1.13% and Brent up 0.39%, both recording a third consecutive session of gains as the market continued to monitor US-Iran developments. Goldman Sachs: If the prolonged disruption to Gulf exports persists and delays the production rebound, Brent crude prices could break above $110 per barrel in Q4 2026. (Jin10 Data) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US EIA crude oil inventories fell by 1.69 million barrels last week. Bloomberg users had expected a draw of 2 million barrels, analysts had forecast a decline of 1.962 million barrels, following an increase of 2.998 million barrels the prior week. Gasoline inventories on the US Gulf Coast hit their lowest level since September 2017. Fuel stockpile supply fell to its lowest since May 2025. (From Wall Street CN App) As the US reinstated its maritime blockade against Iran, two tankers carrying Iranian crude that appeared to be bound for Pakistan have turned back. Vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show the Rani and Amil, carrying a combined 1 million barrels of crude, briefly signaled Karachi as their destination before turning around on Wednesday. The two tankers were already outside the Persian Gulf when the US reimposed the maritime blockade on Iranian shipping. US Central Command said Wednesday that it had diverted two merchant vessels attempting to breach the blockade since the operation resumed, without naming the ships. According to data intelligence firm Kpler, Pakistan has not imported Iranian crude for at least a decade due to US sanctions risk. One possibility is that the two tankers selected Karachi as a waypoint for waiting or transferring cargo to other vessels. Both are under US sanctions and belong to Iran's "shadow fleet" used to ship oil. (Jin10 Data)

On July 10, the SOLAR & STORAGE EXPO 2026 Pakistan will be held at the Lahore International Expo Centre. Hoymiles, together with local partners, will participate, focusing on core needs such as home emergency backup power, PV energy management, and industrial and commercial energy optimization, and will highlight the HIS/HIT series hybrid energy storage inverters, the LB low-voltage ESS battery, and the HoyUItra 261A industrial and commercial ESS all-in-one unit, deeply implementing localized energy solutions and fully supporting Pakistan’s energy transition.

[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Talks May Resume, Silver Price Undergoes Minor Recovery] SMM, July 10 - The prospect of US-Iran negotiations resuming and a pullback in the US dollar led to a technical recovery in precious metals. In the spot market, premiums continued to edge lower, with transactions near parity and demand remaining sluggish.

SMM Morning Meeting Recap: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,418.5/mt, with the price center dipping to $13,397.5/mt in early trading before drifting higher and touching an intraday high of $13,551/mt near the session's end, ultimately closing at $13,481/mt, up 1.71%. Trading volume reached 21,800 lots, and open interest stood at 247,000 lots, an increase of 674 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long-side additions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 103,750 yuan/mt, with the price center dipping to 103,420 yuan/mt in early trading before drifting higher, touching an intraday high of 104,250 yuan/mt near the session's end, and finally closing at 103,920 yuan/mt, up 1.58%. Trading volume reached 40,100 lots, and open interest stood at 153,000 lots, a decrease of 545 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short-side reductions.

SMM, July 10: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,418.5/mt. In early trading, the price center dipped to $13,397.5/mt, then drifted higher, touching a high of $13,551/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $13,481/mt, up 1.71%. Trading volume reached 21,800 lots, and open interest stood at 247,000 lots, up 674 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 103,750 yuan/mt. In early trading, the price center dipped to 103,420 yuan/mt, thereafter drifted higher, touching a high of 104,250 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at 103,920 yuan/mt, up 1.58%. Trading volume was 40,100 lots, and open interest was 153,000 lots, down 545 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bears reducing positions. On the macro front, Trump stated that Iran has shown willingness for peace talks, and other sources indicated that Iran has no intention of escalating the conflict. Combined with Pakistan's ongoing mediation efforts, the window for US-Iran negotiations is expected to reopen, easing market concerns over the escalation of the Middle East conflict and providing a boost to copper prices. Fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of imported material were low and domestic arrivals remained at low levels. Demand side, the approaching typhoon led to concentrated early cargo pick-up by downstream users, but overall industry consumption was still in the traditional off-season, with limited sustained demand growth. Inventory side, as of Thursday, July 9, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions were down 34,900 mt WoW from last Thursday to 165,000 mt, with total inventories up 21,300 mt compared to 143,700 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note today.

Overseas PV Markets Enter a Policy-Driven Reset After H1 Demand Pull-Forward. Export tax changes, freight volatility, raw material costs, and policy deadlines lifted China TOPCon FOB prices in Q1 before weaker demand pulled them back to $0.108-0.112/W by late June.