Iron ore futures traded firmer today. The most-traded DCE I2701 contract closed at 710.5 yuan/mt, up 0.42% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port rose 5-9 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were active in making offers, steel mills made limited inquiries, and overall spot volume has so far been average. According to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at China's 35 major ports was 146.78 million mt, up 390,000 mt MoM. Overall inventory saw a slight buildup, and daily average port pick-up volume edged down 7,000 mt to 3.088 million mt. The data show that although China's iron ore port arrivals and port pick-up volumes both declined during this period, arrival growth is expected to outpace the recovery pace in port pick-up. Meanwhile, pig iron production is fluctuating amid blast furnace maintenance. Given strong supply and weak demand, iron ore inventory may tend to accumulate. Therefore, with a news vacuum and most funds in a wait-and-see mode, iron ore prices may tend to weaken. [SMM Steel]

According to SMM data, the antimony market showed a stable-then-rise trend this week, with the price center continuing to move higher. The average price of #1 antimony ingot stabilized at 92,000 yuan/mt from Monday to Wednesday (Aug 10-12), was raised by 1,500 yuan/mt to 93,500 yuan/mt on Thursday (Aug 13), and remained unchanged on Friday. 99.8% antimony trioxide (domestic) largely moved in tandem, with its average price stabilizing at 82,000 yuan/mt from Monday to Wednesday, edging up by 500 yuan/mt to 82,500 yuan/mt on Thursday (Aug 13), and unchanged on Friday. The increase in antimony trioxide was noticeably smaller than that in antimony ingot, reflecting that downstream demand from flame retardants and other end uses improved but remained mild. In terms of pace, prices in the antimony products market mainly climbed steadily during this week's trading days; smelters generally held prices firm and held back from selling under loss-making pressure, and the market showed clear directional momentum. The mid-week rise was mainly driven by warming expectations of continued buyer stockpiling, but market participants widely reported that downstream rigid-demand restocking slowed noticeably and speculative interest also cooled, with overall market sentiment shifting to mildly bullish. Date #1 Antimony Ingot Lowest Price #1 Antimony Ingot Highest Price #1 Antimony Ingot Average Price Antimony Trioxide Lowest Price Antimony Trioxide Highest Price Antimony Trioxide Average Price Change 2026-08-10 (Mon) 91,000 93,000 92,000 81,000 83,000 82,000 Antimony +2,000 / oxide +1,000 2026-08-11 (Tue) 91,000 93,000 92,000 81,000 83,000 82,000 Unchanged 2026-08-12 (Wed) 91,000 93,000 92,000 81,000 83,000 82,000 Unchanged 2026-08-13 (Thu) 92,000 95,000 93,500 81,500 83,500 82,500 Antimony +1,500 / oxide +500 2026-08-14 (Fri) 92,000 95,000 93,500 81,500 83,500 82,500 Unchanged Weekly Average 90,500 92,900 91,700 78,750 81,400 80,075 Weekly +1.6% / +0.6% According to SMM estimates, China's antimony ingot production in July 2026, including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, and antimony cathode, jumped about 30% MoM, showing a sharp increase. Customs data show that antimony ore imports from outside China in April, May, and June all exceeded 10,000 mt, and large ore imports inevitably translated into higher antimony ingot production. In H1 2026, cumulative antimony ore imports reached 59,347.5 mt in physical content, already exceeding total imports for full-year 2025. June antimony ores and concentrates imports were 10,688.6 mt, down 2.7% MoM from 10,980.1 mt in May, but still above the 10,000 mt mark. However, the previously market-worried "Spain variable" source is not sustainable. Combined with limited domestic mining output growth, the tight raw material pattern remained unchanged. Notably, a planned #1 antimony ingot smelting project with annual capacity of 10,000 mt in Xiaoerkule, Xinjiang may affect the future supply landscape. From a cost perspective, mining costs of some large producers' self-owned antimony ore plus smelting processing fees are now relatively close to spot prices, and smelters' willingness to hold prices firm and hold back from selling is highly consistent, which is also the core reason prices could sustain their uptrend this week. June antimony trioxide export volume was 474.3 mt, up 145.6% MoM from about 193 mt in May, with Russia as the top destination. Export channels showed a diversification trend, but total volumes remained low. Over the same period, unwrought antimony exports were zero, indicating antimony ingot exports were still restricted. The import structure shifted markedly, with Spain's share rising; export channels became more diversified, but total volumes remained low. Looking at Thai trade data, Thailand's antimony ingot imports in June were 1,405 mt, up 173.1% MoM and a half-year peak, sourced mainly from Vietnam, Myanmar, and Hong Kong; exports were 689 mt, up 132.1% MoM, mainly destined for Belgium, South Korea, and Japan. Thailand's industry chain pattern of processing antimony ingots into value-added exports to developed economies is clear, with export unit prices generally above import costs and a notable processing value-added effect. Data Indicator Latest Month Previous Month MoM Change Antimony ores imports (mt) 10,688.6 (Jun) 10,980.1 (May) -2.7% H1 cumulative antimony ore imports (mt in physical content) 59,347.5 - Exceeds full-year 2025 Antimony trioxide exports (mt) 474.3 (Jun) 193.2 (May) +145.6% Unwrought antimony exports 0 (Jun) 0 (May) Remained zero Antimony ingot production Jul +30% MoM Jun +30% Export controls continue. Since July 1, export controls on strategic minerals have been upgraded to "whole-supply-chain networked supervision"; compliant export channels have narrowed, which will further tighten domestic available supply. Although antimony trioxide exports rose sharply MoM, total volumes remained low compared with normal monthly exports of several thousand mt, and the industry chain's export willingness improved but the overall stance remained cautious. On end-use demand, as the traditional off-season draws to a close, operating rates across downstream sectors are expected to rebound steadily; for example, operating rates in the flame retardant and alloy sectors are expected to increase with the arrival of the September-October peak season. After earlier capacity contraction, the PV glass industry also has production resumption expectations, but demand for sodium pyroantimonate still needs to be observed and verified. Bromine prices rose to 36,500 yuan/mt on tightening supply and consolidated at highs, providing cost support for antimony prices. However, after restocking for rigid demand in the previous period, end-users now hold some raw material inventory and are not highly motivated to continue restocking in the near term. From this week's antimony trioxide transactions, downstream acceptance of high-priced antimony trioxide supply remained cautious, and there was some resistance in passing this through to the upstream smelting segment. This was also an important reason why this week's antimony price rise was measured and lacked momentum for a one-sided sharp rally. For example, sodium pyroantimonate production in July fell 20% MoM, and two consecutive months of decline showed that the peak demand season had not arrived. From this week's trend, the pace of price increases reflected the market's core contradiction: a game between smelters' willingness to hold prices firm and downstream acceptance of high prices. Looking ahead to next week, the core logic supporting antimony prices remains solid: smelters generally face loss-making pressure from inverted prices of externally purchased raw materials and finished products, and their willingness to hold prices firm and hold back from selling is highly consistent; meanwhile, the approaching September-October peak season is further strengthening downstream expectations of future restocking. Next week, antimony prices are expected to hold up well. Given that current gains are relatively mild and upward momentum still needs to accumulate, the probability of a sustained one-sided sharp rally is low. Attention should be paid to downstream actual acceptance of cargoes after price increases. In the medium and long term, over the next month, the antimony market is expected to continue its firm pattern as peak-season demand materializes. Late Q3 to early Q4 is the traditional peak consumption season for antimony products; the flame retardant industry entering its production peak will boost consumption of antimony trioxide and antimony ingot, and the PV glass industry has production resumption expectations. On the supply side, China's antimony ore is constrained by resources and can hardly see significant volume growth; export controls continue to deepen, and the price center is expected to rise gradually. Key Points to Watch: - Downstream actual acceptance of antimony ingot prices after increases and the sustainability of transaction volume expansion - Changes in Antimony Oxide Capacity Outside China and China's Export Recovery Progress - Actual Verification of "September-October Peak Season" Demand - Subsequent Changes in Antimony Ore Imports - Progress on the 10,000 mt Antimony Ingot Smelting Project in Xiaoerkule, Xinjiang - Bromine Price Trend and Cost Support - Enforcement of Strategic Mineral Export Control Policies

[SMM Analysis: High Copper Prices Weigh on Demand as Payable for Copper Scrap Diverge]No.1 and No.2 copper materials came under greater pressure. Smelter maintenance, seasonal weakness in downstream demand and historically high copper prices led buyers to reduce procurement volumes and focus mainly on immediate production needs. By mid-August, No.1 copper payabilities had eased to around 96%-97%, while US No.2 copper materials traded near 95.5% and European No.2 copper materials around 94.5%-95%

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Pullback Weighs on Spot; Cost Support Limits Downside Room] Yesterday, aluminum alloy market quotes were broadly lower, with the SMM ADC12 price lowered by 200 yuan/mt. The futures pullback further dampened spot market sentiment, and enterprises generally followed by lowering their quotes. The downstream sector is still in a demand off-season, with some enterprises still on high-temperature holidays or operating at reduced loads. End-user orders and procurement demand are weak, and the spot market lacks sustained upward momentum. However, the cost side still provides some support, as aluminum scrap prices remain relatively high overall and enterprises have limited room to cut prices further. The market lacks demand drivers on the upside, while the downside is constrained by costs. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue to consolidate within a range.

I. Overall Market Review During this cycle, China’s platinum‑group compound market exhibited notable structural divergence alongside a “rally‑then‑pullback” pattern. Driven by overseas price swings and overseas policy‑related events, platinum‑ and palladium‑based compounds surged in phases before succumbing to corrective pressure; rhodium‑based products trended steadily higher, while iridium‑ and ruthenium‑based grades traded independently with stable performance. The core market contradiction lies in the mismatch between sharply rising costs and persistently weak demand. Sharp jumps in NYMEX platinum and palladium prices directly lifted domestic raw‑material costs for chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride, hitting periodic highs. Nevertheless, end‑user sectors including automotive catalysts, pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals entered the summer maintenance off‑season with low operating rates and sluggish spot trading. Downstream participants mostly adopted restocking‑on‑demand strategies without sustained buying interest, which triggered broad pullbacks for previously‑rallied platinum‑palladium products, alongside an overall decline in industry processing margins. Less exposed to price spillovers, iridium‑, ruthenium‑ and rhodium‑based products traded within tight ranges with modest upticks. II. Trend of Segmented Products Chloroplatinic Acid: Sharp Volatility, High‑level Correction Its price moved through three phases: stability, sharp rally and pullback. Trading remained quiet at the initial off‑season stage with steady prices. Later, surging overseas platinum prices, together with bullish sentiment from tariffs and geopolitical factors, pushed quotations rapidly to new range highs. In the final phase, high prices curbed downstream purchasing appetite; absent incremental capital, upward momentum faded, leading to weak high‑level consolidation. Palladium Chloride: Leading Gains, Under Pressure at Highs It moved in close correlation with chloroplatinic acid yet posted stronger gains. Driven by overseas palladium rallies, production costs rose markedly, and prices breached key thresholds to reach recent highs. Constrained, however, by off‑season downstream weakness, the rally lacked durable support and ended with high‑level consolidation and mild corrections. Rhodium Trichloride: Steady Strengthening, Moderate Uptrend Trading decoupled from wild platinum‑palladium swings, it maintained a firm bias. Supported by modestly higher feedstock costs, producers tentatively lifted offer prices. Despite off‑season demand headwinds, gains unfolded in an orderly manner without extreme volatility, delivering a sound moderate‑uptrend performance. Chloroiridic Acid & Ruthenium Trichloride: Decoupled, Stable Performance Both grades were largely insulated from platinum‑palladium rally sentiment. Chloroiridic acid registered a mild, slow independent uptick with minimal volatility. Ruthenium trichloride oscillated at low levels within a narrow band and closed only marginally higher. Supported by independent supply‑demand fundamentals, neither saw trending sharp rises or falls, showing the most stable market performance. III. Core Market Drivers Cost‑and‑sentiment‑driven pricing The sharp rally of platinum‑ and palladium‑based compounds stemmed primarily from cost pass‑through amid soaring overseas feedstock prices. Heightened speculative sentiment fuelled by overseas tariff and geopolitical expectations amplified short‑term volatility. By contrast, rhodium‑, iridium‑ and ruthenium‑based products displayed decoupled market behaviour due to weaker correlation. Off‑season demand caps price gains Concentrated downstream maintenance substantially shrank real consumption, creating a “high‑price‑weak‑demand” market dislocation. Market participants maintained lean‑inventory postures with no large‑scale stock‑building activity, leaving platinum‑ and palladium‑based products without fundamental backing and vulnerable to downward pressure. Dual‑sided margin squeeze Profitability of producers and traders was squeezed from both sides: surging upstream feedstock costs and feeble downstream demand. To boost transactions and ease inventory pressure, market players generally lowered processing margins; profit concessions became common practice to facilitate deals. IV. Market Outlook In the short term, China’s platinum‑group compound market will retain its pattern of “cost‑driven, demand‑constrained and structurally‑divergent”. First, chloroplatinic acid, palladium chloride and similar products will stay in weak high‑level consolidation. Their prices remain highly sensitive to overseas market movements. Still, without recovery in off‑season downstream demand, current high price levels lack durable backing, and one‑sided upward momentum is limited. Range‑bound oscillation with mild corrections is anticipated. Second, niche products including rhodium trichloride, chloroiridic acid and ruthenium trichloride face limited external disruptions. Mild feed‑side support underpins their modest upward bias. Even so, off‑season demand drags will prevent aggressive trending rallies in the near term; narrow‑band fluctuation and gradual mild gains are expected.

SMM News, August 13: PV Aluminum Extrusion: This week, the operating rate of surveyed PV aluminum frame enterprises remained stable. Some leading PV frame enterprises reported that their current orders were ample and sufficient to keep production running at high levels until month-end. Downstream, PV module enterprises did not change their procurement strategies because of the recent drift higher in aluminum prices and continued to purchase as needed. According to SMM, frame enterprises had no plans to adjust processing fees in the short term. At the current stage, supply-side and demand-side fundamentals in the industry were relatively balanced, so the operating rate of PV aluminum frame enterprises would continue to run at a steady pace. Raw Material Prices: During the period (August 10-13, 2026), the weekly average SMM A00 aluminum ingot price was 24,145 yuan/mt, up 2.0% from the previous weekly average price. Overall, macro front, the YoY growth rates of US July CPI and core CPI slowed to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, both in line with market expectations. The mild pullback in inflation eased concerns about further aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed, weakened the short-term momentum for US Treasury yields to shoot up, and eased macro liquidity pressure. Combined with lingering differences over the Middle East situation, these factors provided staged support for aluminum prices. Fundamentals side, aluminum ingot inventory continued to destock, but destocking was expected to slow down in the second half of the month. Supply side outside China, the UAE's EGA disclosed progress on the resumption of production at the AlTaweelah aluminum smelter. Currently, 18% of the plant's 1,262 electrolysis cells have been restarted, and the pace of the production resumption was faster than the market had previously expected. The previously traded supply tightness premium faced give-back pressure. Although macro recovery and continued destocking supported higher aluminum prices in the first half of August, due to a shift in market sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels in the short term, and upside room will be suppressed to some extent by production resumption expectations. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade in the range of 23,600-24,450 yuan/mt; LME aluminum is expected to trade in the range of $3,180-3,330/mt. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East and developments in new project commissioning plans.

[Spot silicon metal prices edge higher in a narrow range before stabilizing]: In early August, the supply contraction from production cuts at silicon enterprises on the supply side and bullish price drivers from PV policy had already been realized in stages. Silicon metal futures shifted to narrow-range consolidation after prices rose. In August, fundamentals improved, with strong support below prices limiting downside room. On the upside, without new positive catalysts, upward momentum is insufficient to deliver a trending rally, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts may shift prices to consolidation.

Rapid growth in global solar installations is creating a new source of secondary raw materials as increasing volumes of PV modules approach end-of-life. Global installed solar PV capacity reached 2.4 TW by the end of 2025, while IRENA forecasts PV waste could increase from 0.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 4 million tonnes in 2030, nearly 50 million tonnes in 2040 and over 200 million tonnes by 2050. Recovered materials could meet around 20% of future aluminum and copper demand and 70% of silver demand for PV expansion by 2040, with recovered metals potentially worth around US$6 billion annually. Major markets including the EU, China, India and South Korea are strengthening EPR and recycling frameworks as the industry prepares for larger volumes of retired solar panels.

According to CCTV News on August 5, three mandatory national standards for energy consumption and efficiency in the photovoltaic sector will be formally implemented from January next year. The three standards are designed to rigorously control the entry of low-efficiency products at source, promoting technological upgrading and green transformation of the PV industry. In terms of energy consumption control for manufacturers, the two mandatory national standards – Energy consumption limit per unit product of monocrystalline silicon and Energy consumption limit per unit product of polysilicon and germanium – focus on the core raw materials of PV modules, standardising the scope of energy consumption statistics and calculation methods. In terms of product energy efficiency improvement, the mandatory national standard Energy efficiency limits and energy efficiency grades for crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules and inverters establishes energy efficiency grades for PV modules and inverters used in ground-mounted power plants, commercial & industrial, and residential PV applications.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Solar Cell Prices Continue to Rise, Module Prices Slightly Raised] The current round of solar cell price gains strengthened further, and prices across all sizes continued to climb. The 183 traded range rose to 0.28-0.3 yuan/W; the mainstream 210N range moved up to 0.28-0.29 yuan/W; and the 210R transaction center climbed to 0.281-0.3 yuan/W. The previous disconnect between quoted prices and spot transaction prices eased significantly, and high-priced orders began to close in batches. Short-term cost increases, combined with recovering export orders, kept overall market sentiment strong; however, excessively rapid price increases may gradually exhaust downstream absorption capacity. Going forward, it is necessary to keep tracking end-user module profit margins, cost fluctuations, and details of policy implementation outside China, while guarding against the risk of a slight correction following excessively rapid price increases.