[SMM Rare Earth Flash] According to the SMM survey, in July 2026, the industry-wide blank production of NdFeB was 32,017 mt, with an average operating rate of 74.9%, down 3% MoM and up 1.5% YoY. Production in August 2026 is expected to be 32,864 mt, up 2.65% MoM. Overall, in July, producers showed varied output performance, with top-tier producers' output remaining stable, while mid-tier and other enterprises experienced a notable pullback due to the impact of downstream operating rates. In August, driven by downstream customers' rush to boost output in September, NdFeB producers generally hold an optimistic attitude.

Ivanhoe Mines released its second-quarter 2026 results on July 30. Its Kipushi mine in the DRC produced a record 70,177 tonnes of zinc during the quarter at a cash cost of $0.90/lb. The concentrator processed a record 200,774 tonnes of ore, averaging 38.7% zinc, while recoveries averaged nearly 92%. The company maintained Kipushi’s 2026 zinc production guidance of 240,000–290,000 tonnes and expects the mine to rank among the world’s three largest zinc mines this year. At Kamoa-Kakula, quarterly copper production reached 64,328 tonnes, with inventory build and temporary constraints affecting performance; management plans to destock inventory in the second half. Further attention should be paid to Kipushi’s second-half delivery against guidance and cost trends.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: SHFE tin 2609 night session rose 2.15% to 426,800, heightened volatility in consolidation at highs above 420,000]

Event Summary: A safety incident occurred at the 750 level of the third underground mining area of West Ujimqin Banner Yinman Mine, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xingye Silver&Tin (000426.SZ), resulting in one fatality. On July 28, the mining area of Yinman Mine was ordered to suspend production by the West Ujimqin Banner Emergency Management Bureau; on July 30, the bureau issued another decision (Document No. (Xi) Yingji Xianjue [2026] 260),.....

Impala Platinum Holdings (Implats) has temporarily suspended mining activities at its flagship Rustenburg complex in South Africa following six worker fatalities over the past year and a rise in serious underground safety incidents. The company initiated a comprehensive safety reset from 24–28 July to strengthen operational controls and prevent further incidents. Rustenburg is one of the world’s largest platinum-group metals (PGM) mining complexes and Implats’ largest operation, employing approximately 51,500 workers. The mine accounts for nearly half of Implats’ total PGM production and is expected to produce around 1.67–1.76 million six-element PGM ounces in the 2026 financial year. The temporary shutdown is expected to impact approximately eight days of production, with the company stating that the final effect on output will be assessed after operations resume. Existing stockpiles are expected to help mitigate any short-term supply impact. The short-term impact on global platinum supply is expected to remain limited due to the brief duration of the shutdown and available inventories. However, renewed safety concerns at major South African operations may provide additional support to platinum prices, highlighting potential supply-side risks facing the world’s leading region for PGM production.

At around 15:30 on July 26, a safety incident occurred during production and construction at the underground Area 3 of Yinman Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xingye Silver&Tin, resulting in one fatality and no other injuries. On July 28, Xingye Silver&Tin announced for the first time that the underground mining areas of Yinman Mining had been suspended, while the beneficiation plant remained in normal operation. At that time, Yinman Mining had approximately 350,000 mt of surface ore, which was expected to support the beneficiation plant's production for about two and a half months. On July 30, Yinman Mining further received an "On-site Disposition Decision" (Xi) Yingji Xianjue [2026] No. 260 issued by the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau, requiring the simultaneous suspension of the beneficiation and tailings systems. As of the announcement disclosure, Yinman Mining's mining system, beneficiation and tailings systems had all been suspended. The previous plan to sustain beneficiation production using ore inventory could no longer be implemented, directly impacting mineral product production. Yinman Mining has an existing mining and beneficiation capacity of 1.65 million mt per year and is the core tin-silver mine under Xingye Silver&Tin. Xingye Silver&Tin did not separately disclose Yinman Mining's actual copper metal production in 2025. According to the original project design, Yinman Mining's copper concentrates contain approximately 1,100 mt of copper metal per year; Xingye Silver&Tin's consolidated mine-produced copper output in 2025 was 2,380.89 mt. As Yinman Mining's copper production scale is relatively small, this suspension will have limited impact on China's overall supply of copper concentrates, with the impact expected to be mainly concentrated on products such as tin and silver. Going forward, attention needs to be paid to the progress of accident investigation, tailings system rectification, and production resumption acceptance.

[SMM Express] Recent developments across Northam Platinum, Sibanye-Stillwater and Southern Palladium indicate that South Africa's platinum group metals (PGM) producers are increasingly positioning chrome as a strategic co-product rather than merely a by-product, reflecting a broader shift across the Bushveld Complex. Northam recently reported record chrome concentrate production of 1.69 million mt in FY2026, up 17.4% year-on-year, while Sibanye-Stillwater plans to expand chrome production to 2.3 million mt/y by 2033 and Southern Palladium's Bengwenyama Project has nearly tripled projected chrome output through improved chromite recovery, underscoring chrome's growing contribution to project economics and revenue diversification. The trend is further reinforced by Merafe Resources' H1 2026 Trading Statement, in which the company expects significantly stronger interim earnings despite a 75% year-on-year decline in ferrochrome production, supported by higher commodity prices and increased sales volumes. SMM believes these developments point to a broader structural shift within South Africa's PGM sector, with producers increasingly leveraging chrome to strengthen earnings resilience, diversify revenue streams and enhance the long-term value of UG2 operations across the country's chromium value chain.

SMM, July 30: Iron ore futures continued to drift lower during the day session on July 30, closing down again and fully reflecting the dual bearish pressure from macro headwinds and fundamentals. Earlier macro tailwind expectations gradually fizzled out, and combined with a sharp increase in supply and persistently weak downstream demand, iron ore futures faced a double blow. By the close of the day session on July 30, iron ore extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive trading day, falling 3.31% to 715 yuan/mt, with an intraday low of 712.5 yuan/mt—a new low since early July 2025. Fundamentals Supply: Weather disruptions outside China fade, port arrivals surge, and supply pressure climbs significantly Chart: SMM 35-port Inventory (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of supply: According to SMM shipping data, total global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM reached 27.82 million mt last week, down 10% WoW; cumulative shipments were up 1% YoY. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both edged down slightly, while shipments from non-mainstream countries fell WoW, though shipments from India and Peru rebounded notably. Meanwhile, total China iron ore port arrivals tracked by SMM surged to 30.32 million mt last week, up 54% WoW, with cumulative arrivals up 5% YoY. As weather disruptions outside China gradually recede, port arrivals rebounded markedly, and the supply growth weighed on ore prices. Demand: Off-season compounded by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal output continues to pull back, and raw material demand support weakens In terms of demand: Environmental protection-driven production restrictions and the traditional off-season effect pushed China’s hot metal output down to a low for the year, and iron ore continued to face pressure from downstream demand. According to an SMM survey, on July 29 the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills stood at 88.93%, down 0.47 percentage point WoW. Average daily hot metal output at the sampled mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt WoW. The decline in hot metal output this week was mainly due to disruptions from environmental inspections, especially in the Tangshan area of Hebei, where mills arranged concentrated short-term maintenance, leading to a temporary output reduction. Inventory: Port inventories saw a buildup, with a clear pattern of strong supply and weak demand Chart: SMM Ten-Port Inventory Data (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of inventory: As of July 30, according to SMM monitoring data, total inventories at the ten ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.92 million mt, up 1.29 million mt WoW, with coarse fines, concentrate, lump ore, and pellets all showing a slight inventory buildup. The inventory buildup at ports further confirmed the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, continuing to suppress iron ore market prices. Market outlook for iron ore, in the short term, supply-side growth pressure continues to be released, and the pattern of weak demand during the traditional off-season for downstream end-users is unlikely to reverse quickly. Before significant improvement in construction activity and finished steel consumption, iron ore prices will overall remain in the doldrums. Subsequently, focus will be on tracking the strength and rollout pace of end-use demand recovery during the traditional September-October peak season. From a medium and long-term perspective, the iron ore market in H2 2026 will continue to see an oversupply pattern, with fundamentals weakening QoQ and ore prices still having the possibility of hitting bottom further. However, the escalating US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy costs, driving up ocean shipping costs, which will provide bottom support for iron ore prices. Overall, barring any significant macro or fundamental positive news, the oversupplied fundamentals will prevent iron ore from staging a trend reversal rebound, while the downside room is limited, keeping prices in a pattern of consolidating on a subdued note with insufficient upward momentum and cost-based downside support. Institutional Views A research report from Everbright Futures showed: Australian miner MinRes released its Q2 2026 operational report. The report showed that iron ore production at the Onslow Iron project in Q2 reached 8.754 million mt, up 12% QoQ and 42% YoY; shipments reached 9.596 million mt, up 33% QoQ and 66% YoY, setting a quarterly shipment record. Iron ore shipments from the Pilbara Hub project in Q2 were 2.701 million mt, up 31% QoQ and 7% YoY. For FY2026, MinRes's attributable iron ore shipments reached 29.543 million mt, setting an annual record. Combined with Rio Tinto and Vale's quarterly reports having previously confirmed high production and sales from major mines, the medium-term supply ample pattern was further cemented. On the demand side, hot metal output continued its decline, and low steel mill profits dampened raw material purchase willingness. Ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. SDIC Futures stated: Supply side, global shipments pulled back MoM and were weaker than the same period last year. BHP and workers have yet to reach an agreement on pay raises, but currently there are no further strike plans; future attention remains on negotiation progress. China's port arrivals fell below the year-to-date average but were still stronger than the same period last year; port inventories stabilized and rebounded after weather disruptions ended. Demand side, apparent steel demand in the off-season was weak; the proportion of profitable steel mills continued to decline from low levels, leading to more production cuts; hot metal output continued to fall, and iron ore demand faced marginal downside pressure. Recurrent external geopolitical conflicts keep oil prices consolidating at relatively high levels, providing some cost support below the futures market. SDIC Futures expects iron ore futures to consolidate. Yide Futures believes that hot metal output is gradually declining, the seasonal supply decline is not significant, supply-demand marginal improvement is insufficient, and inventory pressure remains high. Although 730-710 offers some support, end-use demand has not yet emerged from the off-season, and rebound momentum is insufficient. Recommended reading:

[Production Under Pressure, Supply Marginal Reduction, Silicon Prices Remain Under Pressure] Currently, the silicon metal industry chain is showing a clear game-playing pattern, with structural divergence between upstream and midstream. On the supply side, silicon enterprises are incurring cash flow losses, and a few have undergone maintenance and production halts. As the actual output reduction has been limited so far, it has not had a directional impact on market sentiment. Silicon enterprises are holding prices firm and unwilling to lower quotations to boost orders, leading to an accumulation trend in industry in-factory inventory. In the midstream, social inventory has been destocking for several consecutive weeks. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets are preferring transactions at low futures levels, and inventories in the trade circulation sector continue to destock. The tightening of circulating supply has driven the spot-futures price spread to strengthen, with spot prices showing greater resistance to declines than futures.

As of July 28, LME zinc inventories (including off-warrant stocks) had fallen to 119,600 mt, down by approximately 45,000 mt from mid-June. As overseas inventories continued to decline, the LME zinc market structure shifted from contango to backwardation, with the backwardation widening further. By July 28, the LME zinc cash-to-3M spread had strengthened to US$61.09/mt.