Every $10 increase in crude oil prices is expected to raise the per-ton extraction cost of large iron ore mines by an average of $0.3, while the cost for small mines is expected to rise by about $2.85. High-cost small mines, especially iron concentrate producers, will be very vulnerable when facing cost shocks, and mines with different product types will face varying degrees of impact.

SMM April 11 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 1.04%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.32%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc fell 0.59%. SHFE tin fell 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.04%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.15%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract rose 0.59%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, stainless steel rose 2.01%, rebar fell 0.03%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.06%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.19%, coke fell 0.18%. Last Friday's overnight overseas market metals: LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.27%. LME aluminum rose 1.8%, LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.3%. LME tin rose 0.89%. LME nickel rose 0.44%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.98%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.95% weekly gain; COMEX silver fell 0.54%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 4.25% weekly gain. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold fell 0.12%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.22% weekly gain; SHFE silver rose 1.47%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 3.65% weekly gain. Institutions including ANZ and Goldman Sachs stated that even as Middle East conflicts disrupted markets, gold is still likely to rebound in the long term. Analysts at these institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts, and diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets all provide reasons for long-term bullishness. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said prices are expected to eventually rebound, as the deteriorating macro combination of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume cutting interest rates. ANZ maintained its outlook, forecasting gold prices to reach $5,800 by year-end. Analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key support pillar, with official purchases in 2026 estimated at around 850 mt. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC made in early March. Goldman Sachs maintained its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank gold purchases and expectations of a 50-basis-point US Fed interest rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term. However, prolonged conflict could accelerate diversification away from traditional Western assets, supporting gold prices in the long term. (Jin10 Data) As of 8:31 AM on April 11, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chairs Symposium on Economic Situation with Experts and Entrepreneurs] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs on the afternoon of April 10, hearing opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next steps for economic work. Li Qiang emphasized the need to promote high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, catering to people's needs throughout their entire life cycle and enterprises' needs across the entire process of production and operation. He called for thorough implementation of the service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement initiative, coordinating development and regulation, and cultivating more "China Services" brands. At the same time, he stressed the need to deepen and expand "AI+," accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, and support the overall upgrading of the industrial system through deep integration and mutual empowerment of advanced manufacturing and modern services. Greater efforts should be made to promote employment and income growth for urban and rural residents, tap into employment potential across various channels and sectors, vigorously cultivate new occupations and positions, promote shifts in employment concepts and enhancement of vocational skills, formulate and implement income growth plans for urban and rural residents, and strengthen the virtuous cycle of resident income growth, domestic demand expansion, and economic development. (Xinhua News Agency) [Preview: The State Council Information Office Will Hold a Press Conference on April 14 to Brief on Import and Export Performance in Q1 2026] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on April 14, 2026 (Tuesday), inviting Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, to brief on import and export performance in Q1 2026 and answer questions from reporters. [MIIT: Accelerate Building an Efficient and Unified AI Chip Computing Interconnection Ecosystem and Resolutely Eliminate "Involution-style" Competition in the PV Industry] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 2026 National High-Quality Development Conference for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry on April 10 in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The conference emphasized adhering to a value-oriented approach, promoting high-quality development of the advanced computing industry, accelerating the building of an efficient and unified AI chip computing interconnection ecosystem, and driving the industry chain toward higher-value segments. It also stressed adhering to a problem-oriented approach, carefully analyzing the current challenges facing the industry, proposing targeted development roadmaps, resolutely eliminating "involution-style" competition in the PV industry, and enhancing the resilience and security of key industry chains and supply chains. [CSRC: Launch More ChiNext-related ETFs and Options, and Introduce ChiNext Stock Index Futures in Due Course] A spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters' questions on the Opinions on Deepening ChiNext Reform to Better Serve the Development of New Quality Productive Forces, which mentioned enriching the product and service system. This includes optimizing the compilation of ChiNext-related indices, launching more ChiNext-related ETFs and options, introducing ChiNext stock index futures in due course, supporting fund advisory services in allocating ChiNext ETFs, incorporating ChiNext ETFs into the fund platform for transfer, better meeting the asset allocation and risk management needs of different investors, and enhancing investment convenience and attractiveness. [The Nationwide Mine Safety Risk Monitoring and Early Warning "Single Network" Has Been Basically Established] According to the Q1 regular press conference held by the National Mine Safety Administration, the nationwide mine safety risk monitoring and early warning "single network" has been basically established. Safety sensing data from all coal mines in normal production and construction, open-pit mines with high and steep slopes, tailings ponds, and 84% of non-coal underground mines in normal production and construction have been fully integrated into the national mine safety risk monitoring and early warning system. (Xinhua News Agency) [SSE: The Price Limit Ratio for Risk-Flagged Stocks on the Main Board Adjusted from 5% to 10%] The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) publicly solicited opinions on the revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Trading Rules. The revision mainly includes the following: First, the scope of securities eligible for after-hours fixed-price trading was expanded from STAR Market stocks to all A-shares and exchange-traded open-end funds. The adjustment helps meet investors' demand for trading at closing prices, extends trading hours for related products, and facilitates the entry of medium and long-term capital into the market. Second, the trading method during the closing session for funds was changed from continuous auction to closing call auction, with the closing price determined through call auction, consistent with SSE-listed stocks. Third, adaptive revisions were made in line with rule changes and business needs, adjusting the price limit ratio for risk-flagged stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, refining rule language, and optimizing provisions on disciplinary actions. (Jin10 Data) [New Energy Power and Generation in Five Southern Provinces Hit Record Highs] According to China Southern Power Grid, new energy power and generation across the five provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan recently hit record highs. The maximum power generation capacity exceeded 100 million kW for the first time, with daily power generation reaching 1.4 billion kWh, accounting for 30% of total daily power generation. (Xinhua News Agency) US Dollar: Last Friday, the US dollar index extended its decline from the previous four trading days, falling another 0.11% to close at 98.69. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted a second consecutive weekly decline, down 1.49% for the week. US inflation surged sharply in March, with the war with Iran driving gasoline prices to their largest single-month gain since 1967, significantly intensifying overall price pressures. Data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM, in line with market expectations, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022; it rose 3.3% YoY, accelerating significantly from February's 2.4% and hitting the highest level since 2024. Gasoline prices posted their largest single-month gain on record since 1967, almost single-handedly driving the overall monthly increase , contributing nearly three-quarters of the monthly gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM, below the market expectation of 0.3%, offering some relief to the market and boosting short-term interest rate cut bets. However, economists warned that the second-round effects of this energy shock had not yet been fully reflected in core inflation, and April data faced the risk of further increases. The US dollar fell after the data release. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged from 53.3 in March to 47.6, hitting a record low. The current conditions index fell to 50.1, hitting a record low; the expectations index dropped to its weakest level since 1980; and the perception of current financial conditions tied the worst reading since 2009. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year. This figure surged 1 percentage point from March, marking the largest single-month increase since Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes a year ago. San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter): Bringing inflation down to 2% is critically important, but doing so at the expense of employment would put households in a difficult position. US economic fundamentals are "solid," and the labour market is more stable. Risks to the US Fed's goals of full employment and inflation are balanced. It is necessary to watch how the conflict evolves and how enterprises pass through price increases. Policy is sufficiently restrictive to exert downward pressure on inflation, while also sufficiently balanced to support a stable labour market. Policy is in a good place, giving us more time to observe how the conflict resolves and how oil prices change. High CPI data would not surprise anyone. The real question is whether the ceasefire can hold — if it does, the high CPI will become "old news." (Wallstreetcn) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: US March existing home sales annualized total, US March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US March PPI YoY, US March PPI MoM, China March trade balance in US dollars, China March trade balance, France March CPI MoM final, Eurozone February industrial output MoM, Canada February wholesale sales MoM, US April NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US March import price index MoM, US April NAHB Housing Market Index, Australia March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, China March total retail sales of consumer goods, China March industrial value added of enterprises above designated size, UK February three-month GDP MoM, UK February manufacturing output MoM, UK February seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK February industrial output MoM, Eurozone March CPI YoY final, Eurozone March CPI MoM final, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial output MoM, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, and Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. In addition, other events to watch this week included: the State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, where Vice Minister of the General Administration of Customs Wang Jun briefed on Q1 2026 import and export performance and answered questions from reporters; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank held their Spring Meetings, running through April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo visited the US from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial Committee meetings; the IMF released its World Economic Outlook report; the US Fed Board of Governors hosted "Strengthening the US Economy Through Rural Investment: A Working Forum"; Bank of England Governor Bailey participated in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a panel discussion ahead of the Semafor 2026 World Economy Conference; US Fed Governor Barr delivered opening remarks at the working forum hosted by the US Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and US Fed Governor Barr participated in a fireside chat at the US Fed Board of Governors' working forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech; the National Energy Administration released total electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month; US Fed Governor Bowman delivered a speech at the Institute of International Finance forum; the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of the IMF meetings; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech; the Group of Twenty (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell overnight, with WTI down 2.29% and Brent down 1.73%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 14.26% for the week, while Brent fell 13.55%. The market focused on progress in US-Iran peace talks. , crude oil futures prices saw relatively small changes as traders were about to head into the weekend, while the US and Iran plan to hold talks that could determine whether a ceasefire in the Middle East can be sustained. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said: "Traders have basically pulled out of the market. The $7 fluctuations like yesterday seem to have occurred with very few human traders involved. All they were doing was necessary hedging or cleaning up positions to further reduce risk exposure." He also said: "Maybe after this weekend, we'll have a clearer picture of whether the gap between Iran and the US is too wide to reach a deal." (Jinshi Data) Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said on its social media on the 10th that only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, including one Iranian tanker and one Russian tanker. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies cut oil and gas rigs for the third time in four weeks. A senior White House official said that skepticism pervaded the White House. The official said that Trump appeared to have acknowledged in recent conversations with advisors that the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to fully reopen in the short term. However, at the same time, Trump posted on social media on Thursday that oil supply would be restored soon, but he did not elaborate further. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council: Gasoline prices are very high at present. I hope the surge in gasoline prices will not affect other areas. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): As of the week ending April 7, speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 5,520 contracts to 109,227 contracts. (Jinshi Data) Recommended Reading:

Nickel Ore " RKAB Approval Delays and Policy Shifts Expected to Drive Nickel Ore Prices Higher" This week, the price of domestic nickel ore in Indonesia has increased. In the first half of April, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,093 per dry metric ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.37%. According to SMM's Indonesian nickel ore premium data, the average premiums for laterite nickel ore with grades of 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% were reported at $37.5, $41.5, and $42 per wet metric ton respectively. Among them, the domestic arrival price for 1.6% grade nickel ore was $69.2–75.2 per wet metric ton. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflects the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations regarding the reduction of RKAB quotas. Meanwhile, the delivery price of 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore has also increased to $27–30 per wet metric ton. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, as of April 10, 2026, according to the forecast of the Indonesian Meteorological Agency BMKG, core nickel ore producing regions such as Morowali, Kolaka, and Halmahera will face continuous moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms this week, with humidity expected to approach the saturation level of 99%. Under the combined effect of active atmospheric waves and thick clouds, this extremely humid and changeable weather is expected to continue to constrain the mining efficiency of open-pit mines, slow down logistics and transportation, and further increase the operational difficulty of high-moisture management during the shipping process of laterite nickel ore. The current market is facing an obvious trend of grade decline. Although some NPI smelters have begun to accept ore with a grade of 1.45% and below, pyrometallurgical ore remains tight in April. Currently, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia announced to the media on April 6, 2026, that approximately 190 million to 200 million tons of nickel production quotas in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) have been approved. At present, some mining enterprises have received preliminary notices from the government regarding the latest quota indicators, but most enterprises have yet to obtain the final approved data. The market generally expects that the final approved amount of the 2026 RKAB will be officially finalized in the second week of April. In terms of demand, due to the resource uncertainty faced by some smelters in Indonesia and the difficulty in obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices have shown strong performance. To ensure raw material supply, some smelters have even increased trade bonuses. Hydrometallurgical Ore Additionally, there have been some transactions of low-grade saprolite ore in the market, with its fixed price relatively lower than that of high-grade ore. Following the significant increase in the price of pyrometallurgical ore, the price of limonite has also risen, aiming to further stimulate the sales enthusiasm of mines. In terms of shipping costs, affected by the increase in domestic fuel prices in Indonesia, inter-island logistics costs have shown an upward trend. It is estimated that as the RKAB quotas of mines are gradually issued in the future, freight demand will further increase, and domestic shipping costs may face a new round of upward pressure at that time. On the policy side, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia is finalizing the review of the calculation formula for the Mineral Reference Price (HPM) of nickel ore and plans to officially implement it within April 2026. Tri Winarno, the Director General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate, pointed out that the current HPM can no longer accurately reflect the current market price, especially failing to cover the "market premium" actually paid by smelters. Although the regulatory details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still await finalization by inter-ministerial bodies, judging from the current policy trend, this may indicate that the era of tax-free exports of nickel intermediate products from Indonesia is coming to an end. Looking ahead to the after-market, the continuous tightening of Indonesia's policies is expected to open up further upward space for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain. Overall, affected by potential major policy adjustments in Indonesia in the future, market uncertainty has increased, supporting the continuous volatile strengthening of Indonesia's nickel ore prices. Nickel Pig Iron "High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 2.25 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1080.25 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.43 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 137.01 per nickel unit. High-grade NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) market conditions generally remained steady. As transaction levels stabilized, the market entered a period of tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players, leaving prices under short-term pressure. From the supply side, the center of upstream quotes continued to drift slightly lower. The market has seen a notable increase in the availability of stainless steel scrap. Under the dual weight of weak terminal demand and the cost-effectiveness of scrap, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI are increasingly showing signs of softening. In Indonesia, domestic nickel ore prices have risen, and the market is grappling with a clear decline in ore grades; consequently, the supply of saprolite for pyrometallurgical processing remains tight for April. In the stainless steel spot market, social inventory levels remain at absolute highs. Despite significant pressure to move shipments, steel mills are maintaining high production rates. While there is some support from the cost side, the mills themselves are facing heavy internal cost pressures. Furthermore, with the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap becoming more prominent, mills have low tolerance for high-priced NPI and are maintaining a cautious procurement stance. In summary, NPI prices remain locked in a short-term stalemate between upstream and downstream. Influenced by competition from scrap and limited buying interest from stainless steel mills, prices continue to face overhead pressure.

Recently, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (hereinafter referred to as "Freeport"), the largest copper producer in North America, stated that despite US President Trump's earlier claim that the copper tariffs he threatened to impose could support the US copper industry, the actual outcome might be counterproductive—tariffs could impact the economy, leading to a decline in copper demand, which would in turn be detrimental to the industry. Broad tariffs may instead dampen copper demand In recent times, US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on copper to drive the recovery of domestic industries. In late February this year, Trump instructed the US Secretary of Commerce to launch an investigation into foreign copper imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and submit a report within 270 days. As the largest copper producer in North America, the imposition of tariffs on copper imports by the US should have been a positive development for Freeport, as the company could profit by selling copper at a premium. However, the company's CEO has warned that tariffs could also have a negative impact on the company. "If global economic growth is hindered, it could impact copper prices," Kathleen Quirk, CEO of Freeport, said in an interview. "Ironically, if we try to build up the US copper industry, slower GDP growth and inflation could put significant pressure on copper mines here." Quirk claimed that the US copper industry is currently in a turbulent period. As many industries and applications, including automotive, consumer electronics, and residential construction, are highly dependent on copper, copper tariffs could impose high costs on various sectors of the US economy. Copper tariffs have both positive and negative implications for the company Under Trump's tariff threats, US copper prices have been pushed higher than those in other markets. Currently, copper prices on the Comex are about 9.3% higher than those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), providing traders and producers with greater incentive to continue shifting supplies to the US before potential copper tariffs take effect. In April this year, the premium for copper on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) relative to the LME even reached 13% at one point. At that time, Freeport claimed that such a level was equivalent to a financial benefit of approximately $800 million per year from its copper sales. Freeport owns seven open-pit mines and one smelter in the US, which means it produces about 70% of the refined copper in the country. Quirk stated, "We do benefit from copper tariffs because they raise the price of our copper in the US domestic market... but if there are hefty tariffs and a trade war, we will be concerned about global demand for copper." Quark stated that she maintains a "neutral" stance on copper tariff policies, believing that copper import tariffs have both advantages and disadvantages for her. She noted that Freeport also has copper production sites in Indonesia, Spain, Peru, and Chile, and that tariff-driven trade wars could harm market demand for copper. Compared to tariffs, Freeport has called on the Trump administration to adopt other incentives to promote copper mining in the US, such as the tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act—a benefit that US lithium and nickel miners are already eligible for. "The cost structure in the US is higher than globally," Quark said. "Therefore, if you want to protect this industry, you need to consider how to incentivize it."

According to the latest data from SMM, the capacity utilisation rate of domestic mines was 54.5% last week, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous week. The production of iron ore concentrates was 728,000 mt, a decrease of 62,000 mt WoW. Sales volume was 633,000 mt, a decrease of 137,000 mt WoW. The inventory of ore concentrates at mines increased by 95,000 mt, with the total inventory now at 375,000 mt.

Zijin Mining announced in the evening of May 23 that multiple mine tremors had occurred in succession at the Kakula ore block of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine operated by the company in recent days, with multiple roof falls and rib spalling incidents reported in the eastern section of the mine. The cause of the tremors remains unknown. Following a decision by the management of Kamoa Copper, underground operations in the affected area have been suspended, and relevant personnel and some equipment have been evacuated from the underground working face. As of now, no casualties have been reported. The company attaches great importance to this mine tremor incident and has organized an internal expert team to rush to the site. Together with the management and technical team of Kamoa Copper, and with the assistance of external third-party expert teams if necessary, the focus will be on re-evaluating and reassessing the early-stage mining methods, backfilling plans, hydrological control measures, and full life cycle production schedules. A comprehensive and systematic investigation into the causes of the mine tremors will be conducted, and a management and technical improvement plan will be developed and implemented. According to Zijin Mining's announcement, due to the impact of the mine tremors, the Phase I and Phase II beneficiation plants of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine will temporarily operate at a reduced capacity, processing ore from surface ore stockpiles. As of April 30, 2025, approximately 3.8 million mt of ore had been stockpiled on the surface, with an average copper grade of approximately 3.2%. The Phase III beneficiation plant of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and the underground mining activities within the Kamoa ore block have not been affected. The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine achieved a copper production of 437,000 mt in 2024, with a planned copper production of 520,000 mt to 580,000 mt for 2025. The company holds a 44.45% equity interest in the project (including the equity interest corresponding to the company's stake in Ivanhoe Mines). It is expected that the recent mine tremors will adversely affect the realization of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's annual planned production. The specific extent of the impact will be further evaluated based on the investigation results, and the company will provide timely updates in its periodic reports or interim announcements. Kamoa Copper is a joint venture of the company. In 2024, the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine contributed 1.72 billion yuan to the company's net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for approximately 5.37% of the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the year. Zijin Mining previously disclosed its Q1 2025 report, showing that the company achieved a total operating revenue of 78.928 billion yuan, up 5.55% YoY, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.167 billion yuan, up 62.39% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the increase in net profit, Zijin Mining stated that, compared with the same period last year, the company's major accounting data and financial indicators all increased by more than 50%, primarily due to the steady improvement in the company's production and operation management capabilities, which led to an increase in the production of major mineral products. Meanwhile, the company further enhanced its ability to assess the metal market, fully benefiting from the gains brought about by rising metal prices. According to Zijin Mining's Q1 report on key production and operation data: From January to March 2025, the company's gold production from mines increased by 13% YoY, copper production from mines increased by 9% YoY, and zinc production from mines decreased by 10% YoY. It achieved operating revenue of 78.928 billion yuan, up 6% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.167 billion yuan, up 62% YoY. The gross profit margin of mining enterprises was 59.94%, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.44 percentage points. Compared with Q4 2024 on a QoQ basis, in Q1 2025, gold production from mines increased by 2% QoQ, copper production from mines increased by 3% QoQ, and zinc production from mines decreased by 9% QoQ. It achieved operating revenue of 78.928 billion yuan, up 8% QoQ, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.167 billion yuan, up 32% QoQ. The gross profit margin of mining enterprises in Q1 2025 was 59.94%, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.23 percentage points. During the reporting period, the company's unit sales cost of mineral products increased, which was attributed to a decline in grade, an increase in transportation distance, and a rise in the stripping ratio of some open-pit mines. The following table presents the key production and financial indicators by product for the period from January to March 2025, the same period last year, and Q4 2024. Zijin Mining's 2024 annual report shows that in 2024, the company's revenue was 303.640 billion yuan, up 3% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms was 32.051 billion yuan, up 51.76% YoY. Zijin Mining's 2024 annual report indicates that in 2024, the company's resource volume and production of its main mineral products increased year after year, with both volume and price rising. Copper production from mines exceeded the 1 million mt milestone and continued to grow, while gold production from mines increased rapidly. The company achieved annual production of 1.07 million mt of copper, 73 mt of gold, 450,000 mt of zinc (lead), and 436 mt of silver from mines. Among these, the YoY growth rates of copper and gold production from mines were 6% and 8%, respectively. Despite the general cost pressure in the global mining industry, Zijin Mining reshaped its comparative advantage of low cost and high efficiency, effectively curbing the upward trend in costs. The sales costs of copper concentrates and gold concentrates decreased by 4.3% and 0.43% QoQ, respectively, remaining at a low level in the global mining industry. Key economic indicators reached new highs, demonstrating strong profitability. During the reporting period, the company achieved earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of 63.2 billion yuan, total profit of 48.1 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.1 billion yuan, representing significant YoY increases of 36%, 54%, and 52%, respectively. The net cash flow generated from operating activities was 48.9 billion yuan, up 33% YoY, indicating robust and ample cash flow. At the end of the period, total assets were 396.6 billion yuan, including 139.8 billion yuan of net assets attributable to shareholders, representing increases of 16% and 30%, respectively, compared to the beginning of the period. The asset-liability ratio decreased to 55%, indicating a more optimized asset structure. In its 2024 annual report, Zijin Mining outlined its production plans for key mineral products in 2025: 1.15 million mt of copper, 85 mt of gold, 440,000 mt of zinc (lead), 40,000 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent, 450 mt of silver, and 10,000 mt of molybdenum from mines. Given the complex and ever-changing market environment, this plan serves as a guiding indicator and is subject to uncertainties. It does not constitute a commitment to achieving the production targets. The company reserves the right to make corresponding adjustments to this plan based on changing circumstances. Investors are advised to pay attention to the risks. Pacific Securities released a research report on April 17, recommending a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining. The main reasons for the rating include: 1) The Akyem gold mine is one of the largest gold mines in Ghana and is currently operating stably; 2) With the continuous rise in gold prices, the project's resource and reserve potential for further exploration is promising; 3) The continuous increase in resources and reserves lays a solid foundation for long-term development. Risk warnings: Demand falls short of expectations; Supply exceeds expectations; The US Fed's tightening measures exceed expectations. Kaiyuan Securities released a research report on April 15, recommending a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining. The main reasons for the rating include: 1) Stable performance of the mineral products business, with an upward trend in the price center of copper and gold; 2) Implementation of a share repurchase plan to improve long-term incentive mechanisms. Risk warnings: Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; Risk of policy changes; Risk of project progress falling short of expectations.

According to the latest data from SMM, the capacity utilisation rate of domestic mines fell to 58.4% last week, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous week. The production of iron ore concentrates reached 789,000 mt, down 3,000 mt WoW. Sales amounted to 789,000 mt, up 7,000 mt WoW. Meanwhile, the inventory of mine concentrates decreased by 10,000 mt, with the current total inventory standing at 265,000 mt.

On April 26 (Saturday), despite facing the impact of tariff policy uncertainty, Southern Copper expects its copper sales to remain robust as demand sources shift from the construction sector to the energy and technology sectors. Raul Jacob, CFO of Southern Copper, stated, "We hold a positive outlook for the copper market. We anticipate a shift in demand from infrastructure to new energy technologies and artificial intelligence." "Solar power generation requires more copper than traditional carbon-based power generation. Additionally, the development of AI also demands significant amounts of copper, as well as materials like zinc and silver. We predict that prices will be well-supported in the coming years." Jacob noted that while trade uncertainties may have short-term impacts, they are unlikely to persist in the long run. Southern Copper produced 242,004 mt of copper in Q1 2025, up from 240,679 mt in the same period last year. The company's quarterly report indicates that production at the Toquepala mine in the Tacna region of Peru increased by 11.6%, offsetting the decline in output from other open-pit mines. Although the US has suspended the implementation of a 25% copper tariff, the mining company may still divert products destined for the US market to other markets if necessary. Jacob stated that this move would help mitigate the impact of external shocks. "We prefer to wait until this situation is resolved. As I mentioned, we are pleased to see that the US has recognized the important role of copper as a zero-tariff imported material, and we hope this will be the case in the long term." Jacob declined to comment on the possibility of price reductions or contract cancellations, stating that the sales department is responsible for handling such matters. Southern Copper has invested heavily in the Tia Maria project in the Arequipa region. Construction of roads and platforms for accessing the project is 61% complete. The updated capital expenditure for this year is $200 million, $980 million for 2026, and $46 million for 2027. "We are not concerned about the construction work; we believe the project is progressing smoothly. We are considering some financing, but the market must become more stable." He added that there is high social acceptance of the project, with almost no opposition within the affected areas. The Tia Maria project is expected to produce 120,000 mt of copper annually.

◾ Guinea commits to exporting the first batch of iron ore from the Simandou project to the global market by the end of 2025. Currently, the construction progress of the Simandou project has exceeded 50%. Global attention is focused on Simandou iron ore, anticipating the first batch of iron ore exports before the end of this year. ◾ However, what other iron ore resources around Simandou are worth anticipating? ◾ In fact, as early as March last year, the first shipment of Guinean ore carried by SUMEC successfully arrived at Lianyungang. According to SMM, the ore shipped back to China in 2024 was raw ore with an iron grade of around 47-48%. A total of three shipments, approximately 160,000 mt, were delivered throughout the year. This ore is associated with bauxite, resulting in high aluminum content but low sulfur and phosphorus content. ◾ Additionally, due to the high cost of raw ore and poor market conditions, the coarse ore shipped back last year was mainly processed into concentrates through beneficiation plants before being sold. The grade of these concentrates can reach around 62%. This year, iron ore concentrates are planned to be transported back to China. However, as the beneficiation plant equipment in Guinea was only commissioned in October last year, the shipment of iron ore concentrates this year may be delayed. ◾ Guinea has abundant iron ore resources with high grades (over 45%), low development levels, and predominantly open-pit mines, making them easy to extract. The proven iron ore resources mainly include Simandou, Zogota, Nimba, and Kalia mining areas. With global investment and mining companies accelerating development, the gradual release of capacity in the coming years is expected to reshape the global iron ore market landscape. The following outlines the development progress of local iron ore resources in Guinea. 1. Yomboyeli, Guinea's Only Operating Iron Ore Mine ◾ Yomboyeli (formerly known as Forecariah) is a small mine located in the Kindia region of Guinea. The mine primarily produces bauxite, with associated iron ore. Its iron ore products include DSO and fines. Due to its proximity to ports, exports are relatively convenient. However, due to market conditions and operational issues, the mine's production and sales are often intermittent. Source: Public channels; SMM 2. Kon Kweni Iron Ore, Bringing 210 Million mt of High-Grade Iron Ore ◾ The Nimba iron ore deposit is sufficiently rich, and its development is currently led by two main companies: Ivanhoe Atlantic and NDC. ◾ Background: Ivanhoe Atlantic benefits from a bilateral implementation agreement approved by the governments of Liberia and Guinea in 2021, allowing iron ore mined in Guinea to be transported through Liberia. With the approval of the Mining Convention and mining licenses, Ivanhoe Atlantic is completing all necessary approvals and will begin construction in 2025. ◾ Progress: In May 2024, Ivanhoe Atlantic received approval for the environmental and social impact assessment process for the first phase of development from Guinea's Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development. Currently, the company is drafting the development plan and timetable for the Nimba iron ore project, with a final investment decision expected in Q1 2025. During the initial phase of iron ore mining, annual production is expected to be around 2-5 million mt, with plans to expand annual production to 30 million mt within 5-7 years. Over the next 15-25 years, approximately 450 million mt of iron ore is expected to be mined. Note: SMFG is a subsidiary of Ivanhoe Atlantic. Ivanhoe Atlantic's major shareholder is I-Pulse Inc., a US company founded and chaired by Mr. Robert Friedland. Source: Ivanhoe Atlantic; SMM 3. NDC Participates in Nimba Iron Ore Development, Expected to Contribute 3 Million mt of DSO Annually ◾ Due to the rich iron ore resources in the Nimba region, in addition to Ivanhoe Atlantic, another iron ore project led by Nimba Development Company (NDC) is also under development. This project was proposed earlier and approved in 2012, but it has not yet been officially put into production. ◾ In 2022, NDC, a company focused on West African resource development, took control of SDN (Société de Développement Nimba), formerly Zali Mining and previously West African Exploration. According to NDC, once developed, this project will export through Liberian ports. The project is located only 26 km from Liberia's existing Tokadeh railway and 800 km from the capital, Conakry. ◾ Additionally, SMFG and Ivanhoe Liberia have clarified that they have no connection with NDC. NDC is reportedly seeking to develop a small satellite deposit in the southeastern lowlands of the Nimba mountain range, with no association between the two parties. Note: NDC is a UK-registered company with a management team experienced in international mining. Its shareholders include companies from Guinea and other international entities. Source: NDC; SMM; Public channels 4. Niron Metals Continues Developing Zogota Iron Ore ◾ Near Simandou's northern blocks 1 and 2, there is a small mining area called Zogota, located in Kobela County in southern Guinea. Historically, Vale and BSGR developed it, but it was shelved for years due to legal disputes. The project is now being redeveloped by Niron Metals. Note: Niron Metals is a UK-based private investment company affiliated with BSGR. Source: Niron Metals; SMM; Public channels 5. Kalia Iron Ore Development Taken Over by Australia's Stella Vista ◾ The Kalia deposit has a resource volume of 6.16 billion mt of magnetite. The magnetite concentrate produced has a grade of over 67%, making it suitable for pellets and direct reduced iron. With the drive for low-carbon metallurgy in the future, the product has a broad market. The project also includes a previously identified but unexplored laterite nickel deposit, which overlays the iron ore deposit. ◾ Before 2022, Kalia iron ore was owned by Bellzone Mining, which invested over $350 million to upgrade resources, increasing the project's resource volume from 240 million mt to 374 million mt in 2010 and over 600 million mt in 2011. ◾ In 2022, Kalia iron ore's ownership primarily transferred to Stella Vista. According to the latest updates, the project adopts open-pit mining with an annual production of 7 million mt. The initial product is coarse ore with a grade of 58-60%, and later beneficiation will produce concentrates with a grade of 67-68%, with annual production reaching 10 million mt or more. ◾ Additionally, as the Kalia project is about 350 km from Guinea's coast, a railway to the export port is also planned. Previously, China International Fund Limited and Bellzone signed a binding memorandum of understanding to fund infrastructure for the Kalia project, including a 286 km railway and port facilities, granting the company 100% offtake rights for the project's output. However, with Stella Vista's new acquisition, infrastructure and future offtake arrangements may change. Note: Stella Vista is an Australian private company under Millennium Panorama Group (MPGL), led by executives from FMG, Sirius Minerals, Bowen Coking Coal, and Coal of Africa. Source: Stella Vista; SMM; Public channels 6. Arrow Minerals Partners with Baosteel to Accelerate Development of Simandou North Iron Ore Project ◾ In addition to the well-known Simandou blocks 1, 2, 3, and 4, the Simandou North iron ore project has also attracted investor interest. Using a simple wet gravity beneficiation process, the fines content can reach 61-64%, with low alumina content of less than 0.5%. Moreover, during exploration in 2023, some surface ore grades were found to be as high as 63%. ◾ Due to Arrow Minerals' limited development capacity, the company signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Baosteel Resources in October 2024. According to Arrow Minerals' statement, the Simandou North iron ore project will supply iron ore to Baosteel Resources. However, the memorandum is non-binding and serves as an initial step toward further negotiations for binding sales contracts. Source: Arrow Minerals; SMM; Public channels Most Iron Ore Will Be Exported Through Guinea's Ports, but Nimba and Zogota May Use Liberian Ports in the Future ◾ Guinea's iron ore is generally shipped from domestic ports. However, Nimba iron ore may be exported through Liberian and Ivorian ports due to its location near Guinea's border. Exporting iron ore from Guinea's Conakry port would require significant investment to build a railway across the country. ◾ Nimba currently plans a railway extension to connect the Nimba region with Liberia's existing Tokadeh railway and Buchanan port, enabling future exports through Liberian ports. Additionally, as the Nimba iron ore project is only 65 km from Liberia's railway, Ivanhoe Atlantic plans to rehabilitate the abandoned Yekepa railway for easier transport to Buchanan port. ◾ Furthermore, ArcelorMittal owns mines in Liberia, with production in the past two years maintaining levels of 4.5 million mt and 3.6 million mt, respectively. Previously, a railway route from Nimba iron ore to Buchanan port was damaged during Liberia's civil war but was later repaired and used by ArcelorMittal. Therefore, Nimba iron ore may also fully utilize ArcelorMittal's current railway. ◾ Zogota iron ore, due to its proximity to Nimba, may also be exported through Liberian ports if approved by the government. ◾ The export of Kalia iron ore mainly relies on western ports, utilizing Guinea's national railway. Yomboyeli, being close to multiple seaports, has more options and greater convenience for exports. ◾ The Simandou North project, being adjacent to Simandou blocks 1 and 2, may share railway transportation in the future, creating operational synergies. Source: Company announcements; SMM; Public channels With Guinea's Resource Development, Annual Iron Ore Supply May Exceed 50 Million mt in the Future ◼ With the development of multiple mining resources in Guinea, annual iron ore supply may exceed 50 million mt in the future. Almost all of Guinea's iron ore resources are for export, contributing significantly to global iron ore supply growth. ◼ Moreover, Guinea's iron ore resources are mainly medium- to high-grade, with raw ore grades ranging from 56-65%, and beneficiated concentrates reaching grades as high as 67-68%. Notably, Nimba iron ore will produce 200 million mt of iron ore with a grade of around 68%, greatly contributing to the global demand for low-carbon metallurgy. ◼ By type, Guinea's iron ore resources are primarily hematite, with some goethite and magnetite. However, high-grade ores are mainly contributed by hematite. Contact Us SMM Ferrous Consulting continues to work with ferrous industry chain enterprises on overseas investment projects and project evaluations, including steel, iron ore, coke, and end-use industries. 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According to SMM calculations, the capacity utilisation rate of domestic mines in August 2024 was 55.3%, up 1.1% MoM; the total production of concentrates in August was 20.624 million mt, an increase of 416,000 mt MoM, with a daily average output of 665,000 mt, up approximately 13,000 mt MoM.