SMM CRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mill CRC Production Schedule Down 2%, Daily Average Down 6% According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned cold-rolled commercial material volume of 31 mainstream cold-rolled sheet/coil steel mills this month totaled 4.1115 million mt, down 99,700 mt or 2.4% MoM from the actual cold-rolled commercial material production last month. On a daily average basis, with one more day in July than in June, the daily average scheduled cold-rolled commercial material production in July was 132,600 mt, down 5.5% MoM from the actual daily average production last month. SMM HRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mills' HRC Scheduled Production Up 1% Daily Average Down 2% According to the latest SMM tracking, 39 mainstream HRC mills have a total planned commercial HRC output of 13.4457 million mt this month, up 132,800 mt, or 1.0%, MoM. On a daily average basis, July has one more day than June. The daily average scheduled commercial HRC production in July is 433,700 mt, down 2.3% from the actual daily average production in June. Recently, steel mill profits have shrunk sharply, and pressure to take orders has increased significantly amid the off-season. Some mills have added new maintenance and production-cut plans. Combined, these factors led to the MoM decline in the daily average HRC scheduled production in July. In summary, the total planned commercial HRC output in July was basically flat MoM, but due to more days in July than June, the daily average scheduled production edged down MoM. Demand side, Q2 remained in the domestic off-season, with downstream purchases and market transactions performing sluggishly. Inventory pressure is expected to keep rising, and the supply-demand imbalance is gradually accumulating. The HRC supply-demand pattern provides limited support for prices. Overall, the HRC supply-demand imbalance is gradually building up, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for costs to rise further in the short term. Considering that macro expectations and changes in external conflicts provide limited stimulus to steel prices, HRC prices in July are expected to consolidate near the bottom, with the average price likely to edge down slightly from June.

[SMM Daily HRC Trading] On July 6, the total daily trading volume of hot rolled coils from sample enterprises in SMM’s four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 12,920 mt, up 1,370 mt or 12.3% DoD, -22.59% calendar YoY, and +22.70% lunar YoY.

Published: Jul 03, 2026 - 10:26 PM (Kitco News) – While tactical headwinds such as high yields, a strong dollar and the threat of Fed rate hikes persist, the structural tailwinds of Asian and central bank demand and the need for diversification amid high stock/bond correlation should drive gold prices as high as $5,500 per ounce by March of next year, according to the new Monthly Gold Monitor from State Street Global Advisors. In their review of tactical headwinds, State Street strategists led by Aakash Doshi said gold’s opportunity cost and U.S. dollar strength weighed on investor sentiment in June. “Spot bullion fell 11.7%, testing $4,000/oz support in fits and starts,” they wrote. “This compared to a 22.2% decrease in silver, 20.4% drop in bitcoin, and 9.2% decline in commodities flat price. On a risk-adjusted basis, gold outperformed silver, bitcoin, and spot commodities last month. US listed gold ETFs posted hefty monthly redemptions of ~$5.3B following relatively balanced fund flows during April and May.” The strategists noted that the U.S. OIS curve was pricing in around 1.5 Fed rate hikes this year compared to the two to three rate cuts expected as recently as February, which served to boost real yields across the curve while pushing the assets in U.S. money market funds to a record $7.9 trillion, with the U.S. dollar catching a strong bid. “During the March-June war period, gold underperformed against the greenback, versus the rest of G10 FX, by ~2.6 percentage points.” And while energy prices and rate expectations have moderated, the market still sees hikes on the horizon. “Though ICE Brent crude oil prices have fallen below our $80/bbl target on the potential for a sustained US-Iran ceasefire, rates traders still expect the Fed to tighten,” the strategists said. “Rebounding US labor market data and Fed Chair Warsh’s focus on a 2% inflation target have likely lifted the bar for cuts to be reintroduced in the short-term.” State Street sees these tactical headwinds more than offset by gold’s significant structural tailwinds. “Though the ride may be bumpier versus 2024-2025, we believe the gold bull cycle still has legs,” they wrote. “A hawkish Fed pivot shouldn’t change the structural post-Covid dynamic for gold.” First, the strategists point out that global debt loads rose to a record $353 trillion during the first half of 2026. “Critically, the government share of debt is fast approaching 1/3 of that figure, also an all-time high,” they warned. “An active fiscal and inflation impulse should continue to support demand for gold as a monetary hedge.” Gold’s diversification function is also becoming more important as equities and fixed income markets increasingly move in tandem. “Stock/bond correlations remain elevated versus the ~25 year regime from the late 1990s through 2021,” the strategists noted. “Even as correlations have eased somewhat in 2025-2026, we expect demand for liquid diversifiers will remain a key consideration for asset allocators.” And global demand for physical gold, particularly from Chinese retail investors and emerging market central banks, remains strong. “China retail imports have soared since the Iran conflict and local premiums have also risen, suggesting tight onshore supply/demand fundamentals.” Lastly, gold’s share of global managed fund and exchange-traded fund assets remains below 1%. “This is well shy of the 3-10% strategic target we recommend for most portfolios,” they said. “We project bullion prices can rally to $4,750-5,500/oz over the next 6-9 months (70% baseline) while bearish tactical headwinds have increased the odds, in our view, of the yellow metal hovering around $4,000-4,750/oz (25% scenario),” State Street said. “We see robust price support at $3,750-4,000/oz but view the odds of $5,500-6,250/oz (5% bull case) as less likely versus the January/February macro environment.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-03/state-streets-baseline-scenario-sees-gold-price-high-5500oz-q1-2027

[sheets & plates] Hot-rolled coil prices rose $1/mt today, with other sheet & plate export prices also up $1/mt DoD. Transaction prices for hot-rolled coil were at $489-497/mt. Market inquiries were moderate, but actual trading was just fair, and overseas buyers' indicative prices were slightly lower than domestic selling prices.

Published: Jul 04, 2026 - 2:01 AM (Kitco News) – Even as U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar continue to limit gold’s upside, growing diversification demand, central bank buying and ETF inflows should support further price gains for the yellow metal by the end of 2026, according to HSBC. "Gold did not rally during the Middle East conflict and has largely moved in tandem with equities,” HSBC Global Chief Investment Officer Willem Sels and Global Head of Wealth Insights Lucia Ku wrote. “Our analysis indicates that US yields are the primary driver of gold prices. We believe gold may remain range-bound in the near term amid elevated real yields and a stronger USD. However, demand for portfolio diversification, central bank buying and steady ETF inflows should support gold prices over the medium term.” “We continue to view gold as an effective diversifier against broader portfolio risks." Sels and Ku said their analysis indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are currently acting as the primary driver of gold’s price action. “When yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset increases, putting pressure on gold prices,” they said. “Moreover, gold has been less effective as an equity hedge in 2026, having largely moved in tandem with equities.” HSBC believes gold will likely remain rangebound in the near term in the face of elevated real yields and a strong U.S. dollar. “However, demand for portfolio diversification, central bank purchases and steady ETF inflows continue to support our bullish view on gold and its role as a diversifier against broader portfolio risks,” they said. “We anticipate further upside for gold by year-end." On May 11, James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at HSBC, said that gold has performed exactly as it should throughout the Iran conflict . “The demand has been good out of China,” Steel said. “The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium – the difference between the domestic price in China and the global price – is around $20, indicating strong domestic demand in China, which is mostly on the institutional side. It's interesting; it's less on jewelry and coins and small bars, which we have seen traditionally, and more on the large bars, more for institutions, because we had some regulatory reform in both China and India. Now the top insurance companies in China are allowed to accumulate bullion, and asset managers in India are allowed to accumulate it as well.” “But in addition to that, we saw surprisingly strong buying in the latest data from the central bank, from the People's Bank of China, who bought 8.1 tonnes for the last month's data.” Steel was asked what he learned from gold’s peak around $5,400 per ounce in late January, and its subsequent decline amid the Middle East conflict. “Well, I think the run up was a little robust,” he said. “We were bringing in a lot of money that had not been in the market for quite some time, or had not traded gold at all. One could argue that the market had become overly long, particularly when you look at CFTC data and other things we have available now.” “There's been a lot of critics of the bullion market saying that the decline since the strikes on Iran and escalating oil prices, [claiming] that gold is not a safe haven, that it’s failed in some sense,” Steel said. “I would argue exactly the opposite, because as the oil went up and we got restoked inflationary fears, and bond yields rose, and the dollar rose, equities declined. In that atmosphere, ready cash was needed. And that's what gold provides you.” “We did see liquidation in the gold market, but mostly as a reaction to the financial market,” he added. “In a sense, gold was an insurance policy, and that insurance policy was being cashed in.” Steel was also questioned on his views of gold’s historical relationship with oil prices. “Well, that's interesting, because I'm old enough to remember when it was a positive relationship,” he replied. “We've done some work on this. In the 1970s, gold was positively correlated with oil: Oil ran up, and so did gold. In the 1980s, that was the same; oil fell and gold also fell.” “Now, that correlation seemed to break apart as we got into the 90s, as oil was a less significant part of the global economy,” he said. “That correlation is now only about 0.15, or even negative at times… It's negative at the moment.” Finally, Steel was asked whether he views gold as one of several alternative assets within investor portfolios, or whether he sees it as a standalone asset. “Well, I think you could argue that it is an alternative asset,” he said. “It’s certainly quite unique, in the sense that it's a hard asset and it's also highly liquid. It doesn't correlate to Apple or Nvidia, it tends not to, over the long run anyway. Things like Canadian farmland, for instance, that's also a hard asset, but you can't liquidate it quickly. And that's the beauty of gold. It's both a hard asset, and it's highly liquid, highly traded.” “But what you have touched on, and I think we will see it back again, is many asset managers who never before have included gold in their portfolio, are beginning to do that, because they're looking for alternatives.” And on April 2, Sels and Ku said that despite gold’s recent underperformance, the rise of cross-asset correlations makes the yellow metal more valuable than ever as a portfolio diversifier, and they remain bullish on gold’s long-term outlook . Sels and Ku reiterated their constructive outlook on gold over the next six months, and said the bank is maintaining its Overweight positioning. "Inflation concerns have also led to rate volatility and a repricing of monetary policy expectations,” they noted. “Policymakers are likely to maintain current interest rates for some time before easing later. We continue to seek quality yields from investment-grade credit and EM local currency bonds for income generation.” “However, as cross-asset correlations have increased, we use gold and alternative assets to enhance diversification,” Sels and Lu underlined. “Despite the recent pullback, we remain bullish on gold over the medium to long term due to its diversification benefits and safe-haven demand.” The analysts added that they still expect gold’s recent headwinds to be short-lived, as the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. “Gold continues to serve as a compelling portfolio diversifier amid geopolitical uncertainty and central bank buying,” they wrote. HSBC has held fast to their positive outlook for the yellow metal throughout the recent pullback. On March 30, analysts at HSBC Asset Management said gold is behaving more like a risk asset in 2026, selling off sharply amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar, but the de-dollarization trend still makes it a good long-term investment . "Moves in the gold price since the Iran conflict broke out have defied expectations,” the analysts wrote. “The conventional playbook assumed that mounting geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty would naturally boost the yellow metal, mirroring last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ episode and sustaining a spectacular two-year rally.” Instead, the yellow metal has done the opposite, they noted, losing 15% to date in March. “A stronger US dollar has certainly been a headwind, deterring non-US buyers, while a hawkish repricing of interest rates has increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset,” the analysts said. “Yet, gold withstood a similar surge in the greenback and rates throughout 2022, weakening this traditional thesis.” HSBC believes gold is actually behaving like a risk asset in 2026. “Ownership has shifted towards retail and other leveraged buyers, many of whom are forced to liquidate holdings in periods of market stress,” they noted. "There remains a decent long-term investment case for gold, particularly amid ongoing global de-dollarisation,” the analysts said. “However, the recent volatility offers a stark reminder: robust portfolio diversification demands a broad-based approach." Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-03/we-anticipate-further-upside-gold-year-end-hsbcs-sels-and-ku

July 5, 2026 As of July 3, 2026, by Florian Grummes Since the end of January, precious metal prices have been in a pronounced correction phase. Following the increasing downward momentum of the past four weeks—which culminated in an escalation and ultimately a clearly recognizable final capitulation—there are now growing signs that precious metal prices are regaining their footing and are on the verge of a major recovery. On the gold market , the break below the key support zone around $4,400 since early June led to an accelerated sell-off , which recently pushed prices down three times to the $3,940–$3,960 range. Apparently, as prices dipped just below $4,000, more buyers returned to the market, allowing the gold price to recover significantly—by as much as $250—over the past two trading days. Short Squeeze Following Price Plunge Silver exhibited an even more pronounced pattern characterized by high volatility : The surprisingly dynamic, yet unsustainable, price surge to $89.37 in the first half of May was followed by an even more severe sell-off. Within six weeks, the price fell sharply, dropping by 29.5% to $55.59. Unlike gold, however, the low of June 24 has not been breached in the past nine days, despite all efforts by the bears. Instead, the short squeeze in the silver market has so far led to a rebound of 13.1%. Early-summer bottom taking shape We have pointed out several times in recent weeks that the combination of capitulation by weak hands (high gold ETF sales), favorable seasonality starting in July, increasingly fearful sentiment, and a completely oversold technical market should bring about an early-summer bottom. Accordingly, the odds are now good that the gold price can recover toward its 50- and 200-day moving averages in the range around $4,500. For the silver price, levels around $70 would at least be conceivable. Market Correction and Further Shift Toward the East In any case, the five-month price decline in precious metals appears to have halted for the time being. While silver has more than halved in price since its high at the end of January, Western bullion banks used the period of weakness to systematically reduce risk in the futures markets: short positions were significantly reduced, and open positions were scaled back. However, the geopolitical cost of this development is considerable. China specifically capitalized on the low prices and accumulated large quantities of physical metal—several hundred metric tons of gold and an estimated up to 2,500 metric tons of silver. This market correction was accompanied by a decline in open interest to its lowest level in decades, as well as additional price losses in the wake of the recent COMEX collapse. The bottom line is that a structural shift is continuing: While the West is cleaning up its books, physical precious metals are increasingly finding their way into strong hands in the East. Summer Rally: Proceed with Caution Depending on how the anticipated summer rally unfolds and how the significantly overbought stock markets—which are vulnerable to a correction, particularly the parabolically rising semiconductor sector—behave in the meantime, even higher price targets for gold and silver are certainly conceivable by fall. For now, however, we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves; instead, we intend to reassess the situation step by step and, when in doubt, would rather be pleasantly surprised. Silver in USD – Support around $55 has held Silver in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of July 3, 2026. © GOLD.DE Starting from the new all-time high of $121.67 on January 29, 2026, the silver price has so far fallen back in three distinct downward waves to its most recent low of $55.59. This has corrected nearly the entire upward move since the breakout above the $50 mark last fall. However, the broad range between $45 and $55—at the center of which lies the previous decades-long high of $50—should provide extremely robust support and has so far withstood its first stress test. Oversold and Ready for a Rebound Now that silver has returned to this range in a heavily oversold state, the chances of a significant rebound are very good. Ideally, the entire correction over the past five months can be interpreted as a falling wedge, which could set the stage for a strong upward breakout in the medium term. At the same time, the path upward is littered with significant resistance levels. A key factor in the coming weeks will be a push toward the prominent resistance zone around $70. This zone converges the slightly rising 200-day moving average ($69.83), the falling 50-day moving average ($71.32), and a dominant downtrend line. Patience Rather Than Momentum However, an initial bounce off the moving averages is very likely, and silver is likely to need considerably more time to build new, sustainable upward momentum. Recovery with Clear Price Targets In the short term, however, the signals pointing to an impending major recovery clearly predominate. The 38.2% retracement of the downtrend since mid-May, at around $68.50, can be viewed as a minimum target. If, following a temporary pullback, a breakout above the moving averages occurs, price targets in the range of $75 to $78 will come into focus. Overall, there are increasing signs that precious metals have formed a solid bottom following the turmoil of recent weeks and that the summer rally has already begun. Conclusion: Silver – Signs of a Summer Rally Are Emerging Recent price movements in the precious metals markets suggest that the five-month correction phase may have reached its preliminary low. In recent weeks, both gold and silver have exhibited the combination of oversold conditions, extreme sentiment, and capitulation signals that often marks the transition from a downtrend to a recovery phase. In particular, the strong short squeeze of the last two days suggests that in the coming weeks or over the next one to three months, buyers will regain control of price movements . Now that the breakout zone around $55 has held, the silver price has considerable potential for recovery given the overall sharp sell-off. Our first moderate price target for the summer rally is approximately $70. Depending on how the price develops, higher targets are also conceivable. However, the fragile situation surrounding the AI and data center boom, as well as the increasingly precarious outlook for the semiconductor sector, lead us to remain deliberately cautious. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-and-gold-ahead-of-the-summer-rally-is-the-rally-about-to-begin

In July, the planned rebar production was 7.428 million mt, down 389,700 mt from June's actual production, a decrease of 4.98%. Average daily output of rebar in July stood at 239,600 mt, down 8.05% MoM. In July, the planned wire rod production was 3.197 million mt, up 18,700 mt from June's actual production, an increase of 0.59%. However, the average daily output of wire rod in July was 103,100 mt, down 2.66% MoM. In July, the sample steel mills' long product export schedule reached 653,000 mt, down 41,000 mt MoM. Among this, the steel billet export schedule was 350,000 mt, down 30,000 mt MoM.

[Vietnam] ASEAN hot-rolled coil (HRC) import offers ticked down to 535 USD/tonne CFR this week amid limited demand. As Vietnamese domestic steel mills aggressively slashed their ex-works prices, local buyers heavily prioritized higher-value domestic resources over imports, leaving the import market slow. Last week, major domestic producers Hoa Phat and Formosa Ha Tinh both cut their HRC prices by 33-34 USD/tonne, bringing Hoa Phat’s target prices for large buyers down to 535-537 USD/tonne CIF and Formosa Ha Tinh’s September shipment offers to 546-556 USD/tonne. This compression forced import prices lower; Indian HRC deals were concluded at 535-540 USD/tonne CFR, while Indonesian HRC was quoted at 525-535 USD/tonne CFR, both failing to attract transactions. In the slab segment, Asian prices also weakened, with an Indonesian mill cutting August shipment offers to 490-495 USD/tonne FOB and a Vietnamese mill quoting 490 USD/tonne FOB, while Chinese-origin slabs stood around 465 USD/tonne FOB. Meanwhile, tightened EU finished steel quotas are expected to prompt European seaborne buyers to look to Asia for semi-finished steel alternatives.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Bottom Out, Stainless Steel Market Inquiry Activity Picks Up According to SMM on July 6, SS futures overall bottomed out during the session. The SS futures dropped sharply in the Friday night session but quickly recovered after the Monday daytime session opened. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,740 yuan/mt. In the spot market, morning stainless steel quotes were subdued by the Friday night decline, with overall offers on the low side. As futures surged, spot quotes were also restored in tandem. Market inquiry activity picked up notably, though transactions were mostly concentrated on low-priced cargoes. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged 245-795 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; cold-rolled trimmed edge 304/2B coil average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; the quote for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the tug-of-war between macro factors and industry fundamentals dominated futures movements. US inflation data pulled back, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, the US dollar...

The essence of this supply crunch is a "three-layered squeeze": Layer 1: Physical cutoff – the Hormuz blockade severed Middle Eastern supply, halting nearly half of global seaborne trade. Layer 2: Policy lockdown – overlapping export bans from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey blocked alternative supply sources, further tightening global tradable volumes. Layer 3: Capacity and inventory collapse – war-damaged Middle Eastern production facilities are slow to restart.