SMM April 28: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices briefly rose at the opening, touching a high of 16,795 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward amid a broad decline in non-ferrous metals. Prices dipped to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in the later session, rebounded slightly near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,695 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous day. Supply side, for secondary lead, smelter maintenance increased, tightening supply in east China. For primary lead, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking, with total volumes declining. Additionally, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, reducing imported lead inflows into China. Demand side, some enterprises were approaching the holiday, and coupled with the off-season impact, downstream manufacturers generally maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, with rigid demand contracting notably. The weak supply-demand pattern persisted, and SMM expects lead prices to move sideways in the near term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM April 27 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt during the session. SHFE lead prices edged up initially, touching a high of 16,805 yuan/mt. Bullish momentum then slowed down, and prices moved sideways around 16,770 yuan/mt. In the afternoon session, futures fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,690 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,715 yuan/mt, forming a doji, up 45 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous day. Supply side, for secondary lead, smelter maintenance increased, and supply in east China remained tight. For primary lead, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw a slight buildup, with total volumes trending upward. Demand side, some enterprises were approaching the holiday, and coupled with the off-season impact, downstream manufacturers generally maintained a wait-and-see sentiment on procurement, with rigid demand in the market contracting notably. Affected by weakness in both supply and demand, SMM expects lead prices to move sideways in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM January 30 News: According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in January 2026 (31 days) increased by 2.7% YoY and 0.5% MoM. Overall downstream operating rates trended downward during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also declined, dropping 4.4 percentage points MoM to 72.1%, a decrease larger than initially expected. The main reasons include: 1) Demand had not yet recovered due to the off-season impact, coupled with some downstream enterprises starting their Chinese New Year break early; 2) Aluminum prices generally fluctuated at highs in January, putting pressure on downstream profit margins, leading to an overall decline in operating rates; 3) Repeated environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions constrained raw material demand. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in January decreased by 5.9% YoY but increased by 19.4% MoM. Capacity Changes: As of the end of January, SMM statistics show China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and operating aluminum capacity was approximately 44.996 million mt. Production Forecast: Entering February 2026, aluminum production is expected to decrease MoM due to fewer calendar days. Additionally, some new aluminum projects are expected to steadily commence and ramp up production. Regarding the liquid aluminum proportion, with the Chinese New Year approaching, downstream demand for raw materials is marginally weakening. Combined with the impact of high aluminum prices suppressing demand, downstream demand is further weakening marginally, and enterprises' willingness to cast ingots has significantly increased. The liquid aluminum proportion is expected to decrease significantly by 7.7 percentage points to 64.4%. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data Source: SMM

SMM June 18: Dealers in Shandong reported weak replacement demand for e-bike lead-acid batteries in the market, with retailers purchasing as needed and maintaining battery inventory within one week. Meanwhile, rumors of price hikes emerged in the wholesale battery market amid rising lead prices, with the mainstream 48V12Ah model currently priced at 300-310 yuan per unit. Manufacturers in Anhui indicated moderate demand for e-bike lead-acid batteries, with limited OEM orders for complete vehicles. Factories maintained production cuts, with operating rates around 80%, and primarily relied on long-term contracts for raw material lead procurement. Manufacturers in Jiangsu noted a weakening off-season impact on the e-bike lead-acid battery market, with improved finished product orders. Current factory operating rates rebounded to above 80%, while raw material lead was purchased as needed.

According to SMM, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in May was 70.26%, down 3.59 percentage points MoM and 0.75 percentage points lower than the expected value. The operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in May increased by 7.42 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 81.96%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 52.89%, and that of small enterprises was 55.10%.

[Insufficient Increase in Terminal Production Orders, Price of Non-oriented Electrical Steel Still Has Room to Decline Next Week] This week, the price of cold-rolled non-oriented electrical steel in Shanghai declined slightly, with overall market transactions remaining weak. This week, the ferrous metals series futures market fluctuated, and the spot price of HRC showed relatively small fluctuations. However, the long-term outlook for finished steel prices is downward, which still has a negative impact on the non-oriented electrical steel market. On the fundamental side, the supply of non-oriented electrical steel resources remains loose, especially among private mills, where sales competition is fierce and prices lack support. State-owned enterprises face relatively small pressure in supplying non-oriented electrical steel resources, with overall inventory at a low level and prices for these resources remaining firm. Additionally, the market is in an off-season for demand, with order growth in downstream automotive and home appliance industries gradually narrowing, limiting the increase in demand for non-oriented electrical steel. Looking ahead, the supply of non-oriented electrical steel is expected to tighten somewhat, with some manufacturers voluntarily cutting production, improving the loose supply situation. However, demand release remains insufficient, with only a moderate increase in downstream terminal production orders. The market is generally cautious and waiting to see, and it is expected that there will still be some room for price declines in Shanghai's non-oriented electrical steel next week.

[Strong Willingness to Refuse to Budge on Prices, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices Unlikely to Drop Next Week] This week, the futures market for ferrous metals series fluctuated rangebound, with HRC prices showing narrow fluctuations. Cost side, changes were relatively small, having limited impact on the non-oriented silicon steel market. Fundamentally, both state-owned and private producers have production lines entering the debugging phase, potentially further increasing the supply of non-oriented silicon steel resources. Spot liquidity for some grades was insufficient, and traders slightly lowered prices last week to facilitate smooth shipments. This week, there was a strong willingness to refuse to budge on prices, but market transactions continued the weak trend from last week. The off-season impact gradually became evident, with end-user motor orders being average, leading to cautious purchasing of raw material silicon steel and a heavy wait-and-see sentiment, with low restocking willingness. Looking ahead, the degree of supply looseness for non-oriented silicon steel may further expand, suppressing market confidence. However, steel mills have a strong willingness to refuse to budge on prices, coupled with active production cuts, making it difficult for prices to significantly decline in the near future.

It is understood that from May 10 to May 16, 2025, the weekly composite operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in the five provinces monitored by SMM was 72.66%, up 7.87 percentage points WoW from the previous week. This week, the impact of the Labour Day holiday on lead-acid battery enterprises has largely subsided, with major enterprises gradually resuming production. However, as the current market is still in the traditional off-season, producers are generally adopting a produce-based-on-sales strategy, and even a few enterprises have reduced their production line operating rates after resuming production. In addition, a small number of enterprises in Henan, Guangdong, and Zhejiang provinces were on holiday for nearly half a month and only began to resume production this week. The main reason for such a prolonged production halt by these enterprises is the sluggish order situation, coupled with the cumulative increase in finished product inventories, factors such as the domestic off-season, and export obstacles. Currently, among various types of batteries, the consumer performance of the ESS battery sector remains the most outstanding. Relying on order increments from sources such as mobile base stations and data centers, the operating rates of production lines for these enterprises have mostly reached full capacity, with a few operating at 80-90%. It is expected that the order situation will remain favorable in H2, with individual enterprises planning to expand production and increase output.

【SMM Lead Futures Review】During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened at 17,635 yuan/mt. After opening, it fluctuated downward. In the afternoon, shorts reduced their positions, and SHFE lead rebounded to make up for losses, finally closing at 17,615 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, with an open interest of 58,096.

The Rise of Global Trade Protectionism: Will Steel Exports Face Severe Setbacks? Exports, 2023-2025, Become a Key Solution to Addressing Overcapacity Imbalance Since 2022, the supply-demand imbalance in China's steel industry has gradually intensified. Despite the dual pressure of domestic and international policies, exports have remained high. Source: General Administration of Customs Steel Export Structure Still Dominated by Sheets & Plates, with a Rapid Increase in HRC Export Proportion In 2023, China's HRC exports surged by 84%. In 2024, HRC exports maintained a high growth rate of 30%, while other sheet and strip products also performed well in exports. In 2024, the Proportion of Exports to Vietnam Further Increased In 2024, China's exports to Vietnam, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Pakistan saw significant growth. Export channels in the Asian region are particularly critical for China. According to SMM shipping data, steel port departures were busiest in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hebei. It is worth noting that there are regional differences in steel customs declarations/invoicing/exports. Over the past two years, "proxy buying" has led to a surge in Guangdong's customs export volume, while actual port shipment levels have remained relatively unchanged. Since 2024, China Has Faced 113 Anti-Dumping Cases, with 69 Still Under Investigation/Filed/Preliminary Ruling Since 2024, China's Steel Exports Involved in Anti-Dumping Cases Totaled 31.48 Million mt Based on the method of aggregating China's 2024 export volumes by anti-dumping product categories and corresponding countries, as of the end of February, China's steel exports involved in anti-dumping cases exceeded 30 million mt. In Terms of Product Categories, HRC Faces the Largest Impact from Anti-Dumping Measures Based on the method of aggregating China's 2024 export volumes by anti-dumping product categories and corresponding countries, as of the end of February, China's steel exports involved in anti-dumping cases exceeded 30 million mt. In Terms of Regions, Vietnam Faces the Largest Impact from Anti-Dumping Measures The Rise of Local Capacity in Southeast Asia: How Much Export Space Remains? In 2024, China's Steel Exports to Southeast Asia Totaled 31.83 Million mt; Southeast Asia Accounts for 38% of China's HRC Exports Currently, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia Have All Initiated Anti-Dumping Measures Against China, Hindering Sales Channels in Southeast Asia Source: General Administration of Customs Southeast Asia's Crude Steel and HRC Capacity Are Rapidly Growing, China's Sheets & Plates Need to "Find New Paths" Southeast Asia Remains a Major Destination for Steel Exports, Domestic Demand: Strong Manufacturing Performance; Focus on Q2 Off-Season Impact and Indirect Export Risks Real Estate Faces a Cliff-Like Decline, Remaining Under Pressure in 2025 Infrastructure Investment Funds Are Gradually Being Allocated, Steel Demand in 2025 Is Expected to Grow From 2023 to 2025, the Growth Rate of New Energy Power Generation Has Slowed The Machinery Industry Has Bottomed Out, with Domestic Sales and Exports Driving Growth Simultaneously New Energy Substitution, Rising Per Capita Ownership, and Export Support. The Automotive Industry Will Maintain Low-Speed Growth Driven by the Trade-In Policy and Export Support, The Home Appliance Industry Is Thriving in Both Production and Sales The Shipbuilding Industry Is in a "Boom" Cycle, Order Deliveries Have Been Extended to 2030, New Shipyards Will Gradually Begin Production Steel Market Rebalancing Amid the Export Storm Scenario 1: In 2025, Exports (Including Steel Billets) Decline by 16 Million mt, with Slight Growth in Domestic Demand. Under Market Adjustment, Steel Mills Are Expected to Cut Production by Around 10 Million mt. Scenario 2: In 2025, Exports (Including Steel Billets) Decline by 28 Million mt, and Indirect Exports Decline by 8 Million mt. Steel Mills Would Need to Cut Production by Around 30 Million mt. Scenario 3: Infrastructure Demand Grows Less Than Expected, with Dual Pressure on Domestic and Export Sales. Steel Mills Would Need to Cut Production by Around 45 Million mt. Supply Rebalancing Amid Export Contraction in 2025. The HRC Supply Chain Imbalance Will Be the Most Severe. We Welcome Your Valuable Suggestions. Please Contact Us. https://www.smm. Scan the QR Code to Add Us on WeChat and Access the Full Panorama of Southeast Asia's HRC Capacity