On June 10, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) of the People's Republic of China officially announced the "Announcement on Matters Related to Regulating the Import Management of Recycled Black Mass Raw Materials for Lithium-ion Batteries and Recycled Steel Raw Materials".

On June 10, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China publicly issued the "Public Notice on Regulating Matters Related to Imported Recycled Black Mass Raw Materials from Lithium-ion Batteries and Recycled Steel Cases," with the document index number 000014672/2025-00219. The notice disclosed the HS code for recycled black mass raw materials from lithium-ion batteries as 3824999996, and the announcement will be implemented from August 1, 2025.

SMM News on June 11: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally rose, with only SHFE lead declining, by 0.06%. SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both rose by over 1%, with SHFE aluminum up 1.25% and SHFE zinc up 1.23%. SHFE tin rose by 0.69%, while the fluctuations in the gains of other metals were relatively small. The main alumina contract closed flat at 2,895 yuan/mt, and the main aluminum casting contract rose by 0.91%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.68%, polysilicon rose by 0.72%, and silicon metal rose by 2.23%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 2.1%. In the ferrous metals series, prices rose collectively, with iron ore up 1%, rebar up 0.67%, and HRC up 0.78%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 1.1%, and coke rose by 1.31%. In the overseas market, as of 15:06, only LME tin declined, by 0.08%, while other metals rose. LME aluminum and LME zinc both rose by over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.26% and LME zinc up 1.19%. The fluctuations in the gains of other metals were relatively small. In precious metals, as of 15:06, COMEX gold rose by 0.44%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.14%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.56%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.28%. Market conditions as of 15:06 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [Announcement] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Friday, June 13, 2025. Li Yongxia, Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce, and Song Junji, Vice Governor of Shandong Province, will introduce the relevant situation of the 2025 Qingdao Summit for Leaders of Multinational Corporations and answer questions from reporters. [Average Annual Growth Rate of 14.2% Over 25 Years, China-Africa Trade Volume Exceeds 2 Trillion Yuan] On the occasion of the upcoming Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha, Hunan Province, data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 11 showed that since the establishment of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in 2000, the total value of China's imports and exports with Africa has increased from less than 100 billion yuan that year to 2.1 trillion yuan in 2024, representing a cumulative growth of over 20 times and an average annual growth rate of 14.2%, fully demonstrating the strong vitality of China-Africa economic and trade cooperation. On the same day, the General Administration of Customs also released the 2024 China-Africa Trade Index, which rapidly climbed from a base value of 100 points in 2000 to a new high of 1,056.53 points in 2024. (Xinhua News Agency) The People's Bank of China conducted 164 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 214.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan was achieved. ► On June 11, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1815 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:06, the US dollar index rose by 0.12% to 99.17. Most economists believe that the US Federal Reserve will remain on hold for at least a few months, as the tariff policies of US President Trump may pose a lingering risk of reigniting inflation. The market will closely monitor the US inflation data to be released later on Wednesday. This report may reflect the economic impact of tariffs on price pressures and could potentially determine the trajectory of the US Fed's monetary policy for the remainder of the year. Macro: The World Bank's "Global Economic Prospects" report, released on Tuesday (June 10), clearly stated that global economic growth in 2025 will be only 2.3%, significantly lower than the pre-COVID-19 average and the lowest non-recessionary growth since the 2008 financial crisis. More concerningly, the average annual growth rate of global GDP is projected to be just 2.5% by 2027, marking the slowest pace since the 1960s. The report attributes this bleak outlook to rising trade barriers and "record-high uncertainty." Nearly 70% of economies worldwide are facing downward revisions to their growth forecasts, including the US, Europe, and several emerging market regions. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, vividly compared the situation in an interview, saying, "Uncertainty is like fog on the runway, hindering investment and dimming the economic outlook." This uncertainty not only weighs on global trade but also exerts significant pressure on consumption, investment, and financial market stability. (Huitong Finance) Today, data to be released include China's year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's year-to-date social financing scale for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), China's year-to-date new RMB loans for May (time uncertain between June 11-17), the US's year-on-year CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's year-on-year core CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's year-on-year energy CPI growth rate for May (not seasonally adjusted), the US's June IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), and Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8. Additionally, He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism. Crude oil: As of 15:06, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down by 0.11% and Brent crude oil down by 0.18%. According to CCTV News, on the 10th local time, Russian President Putin signed a decree extending countermeasures against the price cap imposed on Russian oil and oil products until December 31, 2025. Earlier, on December 27, 2022, Putin signed a presidential decree prohibiting the supply of Russian oil and oil products to foreign legal entities and individuals that directly or indirectly use a price cap mechanism in their contracts. This decree took effect on February 1, 2023, and its validity has been extended multiple times. As a major oil-producing country in the world, if Russia significantly reduces its oil exports in the future due to Western price caps, it could lead to an increase in energy prices in some EU countries. For some European countries, such sanctions only harm both sides equally; while others believe that the current price cap is not low enough and does not meet their expectations. For example, countries like Greece, Cyprus, and Malta, which rely heavily on the shipping industry, hope to raise the price cap to around $70 per barrel to alleviate the pressure on local enterprises. However, this is completely opposite to the views of Poland and the Baltic states, where some officials have even proposed setting the cap at $20 per barrel. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, on the other hand, has called for a price cap of no more than $30 per barrel. The EIA released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report, significantly raising its forecast for the crude oil market surplus in 2025. Its data shows that global oil inventories increased in the first five months of this year and will continue to grow significantly during the forecast period. The EIA expects global oil inventories to increase by an average of 8,000 barrels per day in 2025, which is 4,000 barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. The reason for the upward revision in the supply surplus forecast is the decline in oil demand from OECD countries in 2025, as well as the increase in supply growth from OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries. Additionally, the EIA emphasized that while no major supply disruptions are expected, oil supply risks still exist. From the inventory perspective, API data released early in the morning showed that US crude oil inventories decreased by 370,000 barrels in the week ending June 6. Although crude oil inventories have declined, the 370,000-barrel drop is far below analysts' expectations of 2 million barrels. More concerning is the continuous increase in refined product inventories, with gasoline inventories rising by 3 million barrels and distillate inventories increasing by 3.7 million barrels in the same week. Analysts had previously forecast that distillate inventories would increase by about 800,000 barrels and gasoline inventories by 900,000 barrels last week. The continued significant inventory buildup of gasoline and diesel in the US, exceeding expectations, has exerted downward pressure on oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Rare Earth Prices Decline Slightly, Transactions Remain Stagnant [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review] ► As Delivery Approaches, Spot-Futures Price Spread Narrows, Spot Market Transactions Remain Sluggish [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on May 16: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with SHFE zinc down 1.06%, SHFE nickel down 0.78%, and SHFE lead down 0.76%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract fell by 3.34%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract dropped by 4.19%, the main silicon metal contract fell by 3.89%, and polysilicon declined by 3.26%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 6.37%. The ferrous metals series collectively declined, with rebar down 1.15%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 3.84%, and coke declined by 1.93%. In the overseas market, as of 15:05, overseas base metals collectively declined, with all declines within 1%. LME lead fell by 0.85%, and LME zinc dropped by 0.61%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. In precious metals, as of 15:05, COMEX gold fell by 0.25%, and COMEX silver declined by 0.54%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.88%, and SHFE silver increased by 0.61%. Market conditions as of 15:05 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspects: [Preview] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference for Chinese and foreign journalists titled "Strivers on the New Journey" at 3:00 p.m. on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. Representatives from the civil affairs system will meet with Chinese and foreign journalists to discuss "Fulfilling the Mission of Civil Affairs and Enhancing People's Well-being." [Export-Import Bank of China: Medium and Long-Term Manufacturing Loans Exceeded 180 Billion Yuan from January to April] Data released by the Export-Import Bank of China today showed that from January to April, the bank disbursed over 180 billion yuan in medium and long-term manufacturing loans. The balance of medium and long-term manufacturing loans at the end of April was 1.8 trillion yuan, with a focus on supporting the export of manufacturing products such as ships and construction machinery. The bank actively met the full-cycle financial needs of technology-based enterprises, fully supporting the construction of a modern industrial system. [CPCA's Cui Dongshu: China's Power Battery Installations Reached 54.1 GWh in April, Up 52.8% YoY] CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu released an analysis of the new energy vehicle lithium battery market in April. In April, China's power battery installations reached 54.1 GWh, down 4.3% MoM and up 52.8% YoY. Among them, ternary battery installations were 9.3 GWh, accounting for 17.2% of total installations, down 7.0% MoM and 6.3% YoY. LFP battery installations were 44.8 GWh, accounting for 82.8% of total installations, down 3.8% MoM and up 75.9% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative power battery installations reached 184.3 GWh, up 52.8% YoY. Among them, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries was 34.3 GWh, accounting for 18.6% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. The cumulative installed capacity of LFP batteries was 150.0 GWh, accounting for 81.4% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 88.0%. (Cailian Press) ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 16 was 7.1938 RMB per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:05, the US dollar index fell by 0.22%. Fed Chairman Powell stated that the US may be entering a period of more frequent and longer-lasting supply shocks. The narrative of tariff easing has been somewhat absorbed, and trade disputes have left the US economic outlook uncertain, leading to a weaker US dollar and a decline in US bond yields. The monthly rate of US retail sales in April rose by 0.1%, against expectations of no change, with the previous figure revised from a 1.4% increase to a 1.5% increase. The sluggish growth in US retail sales in April indicates that the boost from households purchasing cars ahead of tariff implementation has faded, and households have cut back on other spending amid an uncertain economic outlook, with concerns about slowing economic growth intensifying. In addition, the US PPI in April rose by 2.4% YoY, lower than expected and the previous figure, with the growth rate declining for the third consecutive month and hitting a new low since September last year. The PPI in April fell by 0.5% MoM, the largest decline in five years. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits remained stable last week, with the layoff rate staying at a low level. On May 15 local time, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference. Powell stated that inflation may become more volatile in the future, and the US may be entering a period of more frequent and longer-lasting supply shocks, posing a daunting challenge to the economy and the central bank. Powell indicated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework to address significant changes in the inflation and interest rate outlook following the 2020 pandemic. Fed Governor Barr said on Thursday that the US economy is on a solid footing, with inflation returning towards the Fed's 2% target, but trade policies are casting a shadow over the outlook. Macro: Today, data such as China's total electricity consumption in April - monthly, the initial monthly rate of US housing starts in April, the initial annualized total of US housing starts in April, the monthly rate of the US import price index in April, the annual rate of the US import price index in April, the annualized total of US housing starts in April, the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US in May, the seasonally adjusted trade balance of the Eurozone in March, the initial value of the seasonally adjusted real GDP quarterly rate for Japan in Q1, the initial value of the seasonally adjusted nominal GDP quarterly rate for Japan in Q1, the initial value of the seasonally adjusted real GDP annualized quarterly rate for Japan in Q1, the expected inflation rate for New Zealand over the next two years in Q2, and the expected inflation rate for New Zealand over the next year in Q2 will be released. Crude Oil Market: As of 15:05, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude down 0.41% and Brent crude down 0.34%. The International Energy Agency (IEA) {{yesterday}} forecast that global oil inventories would surge in 2025 and 2026, as trade uncertainties exacerbate the decline in oil demand from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and Saudi Arabia and its partners ease production cuts. The report stated that policy uncertainty remains high, putting pressure on consumer and business confidence. The tariff supply shock appears less severe than previously anticipated, prompting an upward revision of the economic growth assumptions underpinning demand forecasts. Despite recent economic weakness, emerging economies are expected to continue driving demand growth, with total demand forecasted to average 103.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025. However, oil consumption data from non-OECD countries has been disappointing. The IEA forecasts an accelerated decline in overall oil demand from advanced OECD economies, with a drop of 120,000 bpd in 2025 and 240,000 bpd in 2026. The report noted that, despite continued growth in emerging market demand, "the latest delivery data from non-OECD countries, particularly major consumers like India, have consistently fallen short of expectations." The IEA stated that after global oil inventories declined at a rate of 140,000 bpd in 2024, they are expected to increase by 720,000 bpd in 2025 and 930,000 bpd in 2026. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► May 16: Aluminum prices end their upward streak, while aluminum billet processing fees continue to face downward pressure amid adjustments [Daily Review of Spot Aluminum Billet] ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] May 16: MHP prices in Indonesia increase slightly ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] May 16: Demand for nickel salts weakens SMM Weekly Review ► Mixed sentiments in the Asian offshore market, with Yangshan copper premiums peaking and pulling back [SMM Weekly Review of Yangshan Copper] ► Domestic processing fees remain stable, while import processing fees rise slightly [SMM Weekly Review of Zinc Concentrates] ► Orders on hand support production at copper wire and cable enterprises, but new orders raise concerns [SMM Weekly Review of Wire and Cable Market] ► First-round inquiries for mainstream steel tenders fall short of expectations, with SiMn prices stabilizing after a slight increase [SMM Weekly Review] ► Favourable macro front spurs firm quotes from manganese plants [SMM Weekly Review of EMM]

At the 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo - Lithium Battery Recycling Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Lin Ziya, SMM's lithium battery recycling industry analyst, discussed the theme of "Breaking Through 2025: Profit Analysis of China's Lithium Battery Recycling, and Opportunities and Challenges under Policy Reforms." She stated that driven by the global carbon neutrality process, the power and energy storage markets are experiencing explosive growth, and the demand for lithium batteries remains optimistic, although the marginal growth rate is slowing. Considering cost and safety issues, the penetration rate of the LFP system will continue to steadily increase globally. Currently, China's recycling market is still in a stage of overcapacity, gradually achieving capacity clearance. Recycling Market Overview and Global Scrap Battery Market Size Global Lithium-ion Battery Recycling Scale Determination Method The new energy market maintains a growth trend, but the marginal growth rates of both the power and energy storage sectors are gradually slowing. SMM expects the global NEV sales CAGR to reach around 9% from 2025 to 2028. Analyzing the factors influencing the growth of the NEV market in China, North America, and Europe, in China, it is mainly supported by the trade-in policy; in North America, the NEV market is hindered by the US tariff hike, which has increased the prices of new energy-related products and raw materials, raising costs and impeding long-term new energy development; in Europe, the development of the NEV market is primarily driven by carbon emission assessments. In the energy storage market, SMM expects the CAGR of the energy storage market to reach around 16% from 2024 to 2028. Analyzing the factors influencing the growth of the NEV market in China, North America, and Europe, in China, it is mainly driven by power market reform and new-type energy storage demand; in North America, the NEV market is hindered by the US tariff hike, which has increased the prices of new energy-related products and raw materials, raising costs and impeding long-term new energy development; in Europe, the Renewable Energy Directive RED III aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the EU's final energy consumption to 42.5% by 2030. Global Theoretical Lithium-ion Battery and Recyclable Metal Content According to SMM, currently, end-of-life batteries mainly come from production waste; after 2028, the theoretical recyclable metal content from scrapped batteries will gradually exceed that from production waste. SMM expects that from 2024 to 2030, the global CAGR of theoretical lithium-ion battery recycling from social end-of-life is expected to reach around 48%, from production waste around 14%, and from inventory end-of-life around 8%. In terms of global theoretical recyclable metal content, by 2030, the recyclable metal content from social end-of-life is expected to reach around 1.06 million mt, from production waste around 670,000 mt, and from inventory end-of-life around 66,000 mt. Current Status of China's Lithium Battery Recycling Market: Profit and Production Overview of China's Recycling Industry - Market Status According to SMM data, the volume of black mass from scrap lithium battery recycling in China is expected to increase YoY for three consecutive months in February, March, and April this year compared to the same period in 2024. Value Breakdown of Different Types of Uncrushed Scrap Products Currently, the main product after processing scrap batteries and pole pieces is black mass, accounting for about 57% of the value of different types of batteries. According to SMM analysis, the current market for scrap battery cells and pole pieces is still priced by weight, with buyers and sellers negotiating a lump sum (yuan/mt), with black mass, copper powder, and aluminum powder constituting the main cost of scrap battery cells, thus the price of black mass is strongly correlated with the price changes of copper and aluminum in scrap material costs. Profit and Cost of Externally Purchased Uncrushed Scrap in the Downstream of the Power Battery Recycling Industry Chain - Powdering End China's Secondary Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium Salt Capacity, Production, and Forecast (2022-2025E) The supply proportion of secondary metals is still relatively low, but as the tide recedes and ESG regulations tighten, the recycling proportion will steadily increase. SMM expects that by 2026, China's secondary nickel sulphate capacity is expected to exceed 200,000 mt/year, with production expected to reach around 100,000 mt; from 2025 to 2026, the supply proportion of secondary nickel sulphate is expected to remain between 15% and 20%; In terms of secondary cobalt sulphate, it is expected that by 2026, China's secondary cobalt sulphate capacity is expected to exceed 80,000 mt/year, with production expected to reach around 20,000 mt/year; by 2026, the supply proportion of secondary cobalt sulphate is expected to approach 25%; In terms of secondary lithium carbonate, it is expected that by 2026, the capacity of secondary lithium carbonate is expected to approach 600,000 mt, with production expected to reach around 100,000 mt; from 2024 to 2026, the supply proportion of secondary lithium carbonate will continue to increase, and by 2026, it is expected to approach around 25%. Profit and Cost of Externally Purchased Black Mass in the Downstream of the Power Battery Recycling Industry Chain - Wet Process End Click to View SMM New Energy Product Spot Quotes According to SMM analysis, from November 2024 to March 2025: Due to the previous destocking of lithium carbonate, the price of lithium carbonate slightly increased, temporarily repairing the profit of wet-process LFP scrap. However, with the resumption of production at Ningde mines after the holiday leading to a surplus in lithium carbonate supply and demand, lithium salt prices continued to decline, and LFP scrap showed a continuous inversion. Click to View SMM New Energy Product Spot Quotes From November 2024 to March 2025: Due to the previous decline in nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices, the profit of wet-process ternary and LCO scrap continued to invert, but due to the DRC's restrictions on the import and export of cobalt intermediate products, cobalt salt prices surged, repairing the profit of ternary and LCO scrap, with LCO scrap profit above the surplus line. Analysis of China's Lithium Battery Recycling Industry Policies Recycling Industry: Both the EU and North America are in the initial stage, while China's recycling market is entering a critical period China's Vehicle Recycling Subsidy - Trade-in Policy The national "trade-in" policy for the automotive industry, followed by local policies, aims to stimulate sales through vehicle upgrades and increase the recycling volume of scrapped vehicles. China's Black Mass Policy - Policies on the Import of Recycled Black Mass for Lithium-ion Batteries In 2025, the country released a draft for comments on the "black mass import and export" policy, with comments closing on March 20. The draft specifies various index requirements for black mass. According to SMM analysis, qualified lithium-ion battery recycled black mass is not considered solid waste and can be freely imported. Black mass should not be mixed and should be classified. The index requirements in the black mass import and export specifications are consistent with the Class II black mass requirements in "GBT 45203-2024 Lithium-ion Battery Recycled Black Mass." In October 2024, the EU released a "Draft Revision of the Waste List," adding waste residues and intermediate products from the recycling of waste lithium batteries and nickel batteries as hazardous substances. After the revision is passed, the export of hazardous waste to non-OECD countries, including Southeast Asia and China, will be prohibited. Lithium Battery Recycling Policy White Paper, Covering Policy Standards for All Players in the Lithium Battery Recycling Process Summary End-use Demand: Driven by the global carbon neutrality process, the power and energy storage markets are experiencing explosive growth, and the demand for lithium batteries remains optimistic, although the marginal growth rate is slowing. Considering cost and safety issues, the penetration rate of the LFP system will continue to steadily increase globally. China's Recycling Market: Integration is gradually deepening, and with the increase in social end-of-life and battery cell production schedules, the total procurement volume and output of market scrap are gradually increasing. Profit: The profit of the wet process end has long been below the surplus line, and the powdering end is slightly better than the wet process but still shows inversion. Recycling Policies: Newly introduced policies such as trade-in, black mass import and export, and black mass specification requirements have become the focus of attention. Capacity allocation in regions such as the EU and North America is still uneven, mainly concentrated in the front-end powdering pretreatment. Opportunities and Challenges: With the large-scale social end-of-life wave and the opening of black mass import and export, black mass supply will gradually increase. Currently, China's recycling market is still in a stage of overcapacity, gradually achieving capacity clearance. Click to View the 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo Special Report

At the CLNB 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Chain Expo - Lithium Battery Recycling Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Lin Ziya, SMM's lithium battery recycling industry analyst, discussed the theme of "Breakthrough in 2025: Analysis of Profitability in China's Lithium Battery Recycling, and Opportunities and Challenges Under Policy Reforms."

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that rising global oil inventories may be one of the reasons for OPEC+'s decision