[Marginal Easing in Expectations for US Fed Rate Hikes, Continued Aluminum Destocking Underpins Market] Based on a comprehensive assessment, the macro front has improved recently; marginal constraints from rate hike expectations on the nonferrous metals sector continue to ease; the proportion of liquid aluminum in China keeps rising; the Middle East geopolitical risk premium continues to accumulate, while aluminum ingot destocking continues in China, collectively underpinning aluminum prices; and market confidence has strengthened markedly in the short term. However, the continuous rollout of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China, coupled with recurring expectations for US Fed rate hikes overseas and disturbances from uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical situation, still exert some pressure on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices consolidate on a strong note.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Two Major Factors Boosted Market Confidence, Short-Term Aluminum Price Maintained Consolidation on a Strong Note]

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 30 Jul , 2026

On July 30, Chengtun Mining’s share price declined. As of 13:22 on the 30th, Chengtun Mining was down 5.03% at 10.2 yuan per share. On the news front: Chengtun Mining’s 2026 semi-annual report released on July 30 showed that in H1 2026, the company achieved total operating revenue of 19.264 billion yuan, up 39.56% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.804 billion yuan, up 71.37% YoY; and net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 1.913 billion yuan, up 64.63% YoY. Regarding its core business, Chengtun Mining stated in its semi-annual report that the company was committed to the development and utilization of energy metal resources, especially metal varieties required for new energy batteries, while also expanding into precious metals such as gold. The company focused primarily on copper, nickel, cobalt, and gold, with its main business types being energy metals, base metals, metal trading, and others. Chengtun Mining’s semi-annual report showed that in H1 2026, the company’s DRC copper-cobalt segment delivered stable output, with copper production reaching 132,200 mt in metal content, of which Brother Mining (BMS) achieved copper production of 74,400 mt in metal content. BMS’s specialized energy management system took shape. The Kalongwe project advanced in a coordinated manner in optimizing the production system and engineering construction; multiple technological transformation initiatives reduced material consumption, and optimized reuse of return water lowered energy consumption and enabled refined cost control. The copper-cobalt smelting projects CCR and CCM maintained stable production and operations. The company also carried out exploration in prospective areas and extension-style resource M&A to strengthen the foundation for sustainable development. In the Indonesia nickel segment, Youshan Nickel maintained stable production and operations amid global nickel market price consolidation, achieving operating revenue of 1.663 billion yuan; by improving management, optimizing processes, and strengthening industry-chain synergies, it successfully withstood market shocks. Phase I capacity of the Guizhou project was gradually released, process flows became increasingly mature, and product quality improved steadily; Phase II of the project carried out trial production. Huajin Mining operated steadily, achieving gold sales of 156.31 kg and operating revenue of 145 million yuan. During the reporting period, operating revenue from production and manufacturing was 18.756 billion yuan, accounting for 97.36% of the company’s total revenue, up 2.92 percentage points YoY, and it continued to maintain high-quality operations. Regarding the status of its core businesses, Chengtun Mining’s semi-annual report showed: 1. Energy Metals Business. During the reporting period, the company’s energy metals business achieved revenue of 14.543 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 27.03%, basically in line with the gross margin in the same period last year. In H1 2026, output of copper products was 133,200 mt in metal content, cobalt products 3,700 mt in metal content, and nickel products 21,200 mt in metal content. ( 1) Copper-Cobalt Segment ① During the reporting period, the company’s DRC copper-cobalt segment delivered stable output, with copper production reaching 132,200 mt in metal content, of which Brother Mining achieved 74,400 mt in metal content. The company addressed power shortage issues through a multi-type energy mix, building a modern energy system that is specialized, intensive, and integrated, driving synchronized growth in operating efficiency and scale effects. ② Dali Sanxin actively advanced mine construction and aimed to achieve trial production in Q4. At present, land and other related procedures had been completed, shaft construction was basically completed, and surface civil works construction was being actively advanced. ③ In April 2026, the company disclosed that it planned to acquire a 50% equity interest in Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment Limited to indirectly obtain a 30% interest in a large, specific copper-cobalt mining right. The project completed the equity closing in July 2026, and subsequent cooperation matters regarding the mine were progressing normally. During the reporting period, the company actively sought resource security for sustainable development through exploration in prospective areas and by pursuing extension-style M&A and cooperation for copper ore resources. (2) Indonesia Nickel Segment During the reporting period, the global nickel market fluctuated amid the interplay of Indonesia policy adjustments and rising cost side pressures. Youshan Nickel maintained stable production and operations, achieving operating revenue of 1.663 billion yuan and demonstrating strong operating resilience. (3) Deep Processing and Materials Segment ① During the reporting period, Keli Xin’s operating revenue increased by 25.6% from the same period last year, with rapid growth in operating performance. Meanwhile, the company continued to expand its product lines and enrich product models to meet different battery systems’ requirements for high voltage and high safety, effectively improving client response speed and product compatibility. ② Zhonghe Nickel optimized process technologies, further advanced refined on-site production management, improved recovery rates of valuable metals, and enhanced the production system’s adaptability to multi-channel raw material sources. ③ Phase I capacity of the Guizhou project was gradually released, process flows became increasingly mature, and through various refined control measures, it ensured continuous and stable production operations, with product quality improving steadily. Phase II of the Guizhou project smoothly entered trial production. 2. Base Metals Business. During the reporting period, the base metals business achieved sales revenue of 4.213 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 9.50%, up 5.61 percentage points from the same period last year. (1) During the reporting period, Chengtun Zinc & Germanium operated steadily, with notable results in comprehensive recovery; indium and germanium recovery rates both improved. Technical breakthroughs achieved cost reductions in auxiliary material and a record high in silver recovery indicators; multi-dimensional cost reduction and efficiency enhancement significantly lowered logistics and inventory expenses, and overall production operations remained stable. (2) During the reporting period, the company actively advanced the orderly construction of domestic and overseas mines. Construction of the Baoshan Hengyuan Xinmao mining engineering project progressed steadily; Huajin Mining operated steadily, selling 156.31 kg of gold and achieving revenue of 145 million yuan. 3. Metal Trading Business and Others. During the reporting period, the metal trading business achieved operating revenue of 307 million yuan. At present, the scale of the company’s core businesses continued to grow steadily, the proportion of the trading business gradually declined, and the business structure continued to be optimized, achieving solid results on the path of high-quality development. In addition, Chengtun Mining announced on July 23 that the cumulative deviation in the increase of its stock’s closing price exceeded 20% over three consecutive trading days on July 21, July 22, and July 23, 2026, constituting abnormal fluctuations in stock trading. After verification, the company found no media reports or market rumors that needed clarification or response, and found no other material events that could have a significant impact on the company’s share price. As of the date of this announcement, other than information publicly disclosed by the company in designated media, there was no other material information that should have been disclosed but had not been disclosed, including but not limited to planning major asset restructurings involving publicly listed firms, share issuances, major transactions, business restructurings, share repurchases, equity incentives, bankruptcy reorganizations, major business cooperation, introduction of strategic investors, and other major matters. The company’s current operating conditions were normal, and there had been no material changes in the internal and external operating environment. Chengtun Mining announced on July 9 that the transaction in which its wholly owned great-grand subsidiary Preeminence Holdings Limited (Preeminence) acquired a 50% equity interest in Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment Limited (Nkoyi) had made new progress. As of the date of this announcement, Nkoyi had completed the change of its shareholder register, and all registration and filing procedures for changes involving directors and senior management in this transaction had been completed. Preeminence had now obtained a 50% equity interest in Nkoyi, and the company had, in accordance with the Share Purchase Agreement under the transaction, paid the equity acquisition consideration to the target company. In Huafu Securities’ nonferrous metals weekly report released on July 26, its commentary on industrial metals mentioned: Industrial metals: tight inventory coupled with geopolitical tailwinds lifted copper prices strongly. From a macro perspective, the Middle East US-Iran geopolitical conflict continued to recur. Multiple parties mediated to advance ceasefire talks, but differences between the two sides were difficult to bridge quickly, and the market continued to trade the potential risk of disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Once passage through the waterway is restricted, it would not only push up international crude oil prices and raise global smelting and logistics costs, but also affect outbound shipments of Middle Eastern sulfur, directly disrupting the supply of raw materials for ex-China hydrometallurgical copper production, continuously injecting a geopolitical risk premium into copper prices; repeated changes in news flow also amplified intraday fluctuations in LME copper. This week, tensions in the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz situation remained elevated, and shipping risks in the strait continued to affect market sentiment. Individual stocks: Copper—watch JCC, CMOC, Chengtun, Zangge, JCHX, and Beitong; for H-shares, watch NFC and Minmetals, among others. Aluminum—watch Tianshan, Hongchuang, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo, Huatong, Hongqiao, and Zhongfu, among others. Citigroup recently published a report stating that it held a constructive view on the copper market over the coming weeks, maintaining its expectations unchanged for a 0–3 month short-term copper price target of $14,500 per mt and a year-end target of $15,000 per mt. Citigroup noted that over the past month, despite a pullback in speculative long positions and overall weakness in commodities, copper prices remained resilient. While demand growth remained weak, the supply side faced greater pressure. Global mine supply remained under pressure, while year-to-date scrap supply appeared to respond weakly to high prices. Chilean mine supply risks and sulfur supply constraints could, at the margin, lift market sentiment. A CITIC Securities research report said that multiple positive factors drove copper prices to again challenge $14,000, and that core drivers such as declining inventory and supply disruptions were expected to persist; most potential tariff paths remained positive for copper, and under a neutral assumption, copper prices were expected to challenge $15,000 within the year. The copper sector was still at the beginning of a valuation recovery, and the formation of expectations for price hike and improvements in market sentiment would continue to drive valuation recovery.

On July 29, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) held a press conference on the H1 2026 performance of the nonferrous metals industry, both in-person and online. Chen Xuesen, Standing Committee Member of the Party Committee, Vice President and Spokesperson of CNIA, reported on the industry's H1 performance and answered questions from media and enterprise representatives together with relevant department heads. Chen Xuesen stated that the industry's overall operation was stable and improving, with growth in multiple core indicators including production, investment, foreign trade, prices, and profitability. First, production of major varieties grew steadily, while new energy metals diverged. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that total production of ten nonferrous metals in H1 reached 41.513 million mt, up 3.3% YoY. Among the 23 nonferrous metal products monitored, production of 13 products increased YoY, while that of 10 products fell YoY. Production and sales of traditional bulk metals were stable with slight gains: copper cathode output was 7.608 million mt (up 5.2%), copper semis 11.982 million mt (up 0.3%), alumina 45.772 million mt (up 3.3%), and primary aluminum 23.187 million mt (up 3.8%). However, upstream mines and downstream processing sectors faced periodic pressure: metal content of six mined metals was 2.955 million mt (down 5.8%) and aluminum semis production was 32.303 million mt (down 2.4%). Industry value-added grew 0.3% in H1, with value-added of the mining and beneficiation sector up 3.2% and that of smelting and processing edging down 0.3%. Production of key new energy metals diverged: silicon metal output was 2.231 million mt (up 2.5% YoY); lithium carbonate capacity release was significant, with production at 563,000 mt (surging 33.9% YoY); refined nickel and refined cobalt output contracted to 221,000 mt and 60,000 mt, down 4.8% and 41.8% YoY respectively. Second, fixed asset investment edged up, with prominent investment vitality in the mining and beneficiation sector. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the industry narrowed significantly from Q1 in H1. On one hand, project construction progress was constrained by high temperatures and heavy rainfall in some regions; on the other hand, resource constraints became prominent and capacity "involution" intensified, so enterprises had weak willingness for medium and long-term capital expansion domestically and turned more to overseas markets. Overall, the industry's fixed asset investment edged up only 0.4% YoY, down 10.3 percentage points from the Q1 growth rate, with notable sector divergence: investment in nonferrous metals mining and beneficiation rose 21.2%, while investment in smelting and processing declined 4.1%. Private investment was under pressure overall, with industry private investment down 1.0% YoY in H1. By sector, private investment in smelting, rolling and processing fell 3.0%, while that in mine mining and beneficiation grew 8.1%, becoming the main driver of private investment in the industry. Third, foreign trade scale surged significantly, and gold products became the core engine of trade growth. Amid sluggish global economic recovery and intertwined geopolitical turmoil, the industry's foreign trade saw improvements in both volume and quality, with import and export scale expanding substantially. Customs data showed that in H1, total imports and exports of nonferrous metal products reached $347.13 billion, up 68.0% YoY. Specifically, import value was $280.91 billion, up 81.7%, driven mainly by gold products, while export value was $66.22 billion, up 27.3%. The share of gold product imports and exports in the industry's total trade rose to 41.8%, playing a prominent role in boosting overall foreign trade. Bulk raw material imports and exports showed mixed changes. Among them, imports of copper ores and concentrates were 14.61 million mt, down 0.9% YoY, while bauxite imports were 120 million mt, up 17.4%. Imports and exports of copper and aluminum semis showed a pattern of "reduced imports and increased exports." Specifically, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 2.49 million mt, down 5.3%, while exports were 879,000 mt, up 18.2%; imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis were 1.88 million mt, down 5.1%, while exports were 3.396 million mt, up 16.3%. In addition, exports of aluminum products (including aluminum alloy wheel hubs) were 2.576 million mt, up 16.4%. Foreign trade in new energy metals continued to gain momentum. Specifically, lithium carbonate imports were 179,000 mt, up 52.3% YoY, silicon metal exports were 379,000 mt, up 11.4%, and unwrought nickel exports contracted sharply to 12,000 mt, down 86.9%. Fourth, market prices consolidated at high levels, with most product prices falling back MoM in June. Affected by overseas resource monopolies and the transmission of geopolitical conflict premiums, major nonferrous metal prices stayed high in H1, but the high prices also forced downstream enterprises to advance material substitution, which to some extent squeezed the industry's demand growth space. In June, market prices saw a phased correction, with 17 of the 24 products monitored by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) seeing MoM declines. In terms of H1 average prices, seven products declined YoY, but mainstream products such as copper, aluminum, gold, zinc, tungsten and molybdenum saw price increases. In the domestic spot market in H1, among traditional metals, apart from lead, whose average price was 16,649 yuan/mt, down 1.5% YoY, copper averaged 101,964 yuan/mt, up 31.4%, aluminum averaged 24,124 yuan/mt, up 18.8%, zinc averaged 24,276 yuan/mt, edging up 4.2%, while for precious metals, the average spot gold price was 1,058.4 yuan/g, up 45.9%, and silver averaged 19.7 yuan/g, surging 141.1%. New energy metals showed divergent price changes, with the average price of silicon metal at 9,079 yuan/mt, down 10.7%; battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,000 yuan/mt, surging 128.1%; nickel at 142,000 yuan/mt, up 12.5%; and cobalt at 417,000 yuan/mt, up 101.5%. Fifth, industry profits increased significantly, with the smelting segment becoming the core pillar of profitability. In H1, the profitability of the industry achieved a leap-forward improvement. The 12,362 enterprises above designated size recorded total operating revenue of 5,769.68 billion yuan, up 21.7% YoY, and total profit of 418.39 billion yuan, up 94.0% YoY. The profit growth accounted for 32.6% of the total profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide, boosting the total profit growth of national designated industrial enterprises by 6.1 percentage points, ranking among the top in the industrial sector in terms of profit growth rate. Meanwhile, cost control showed positive results, with the cost per hundred yuan of operating revenue for the above-designated-size enterprises at 90.0 yuan, down 2.7 yuan YoY. The sharp profit increase was driven by multiple favorable factors resonating together: First, tight ore supply and rising scarcity premiums pushed profits toward upstream mines. Second, emerging industries such as AI computing infrastructure, power batteries, energy storage, and NEVs continued to release rigid demand, strongly supporting non-ferrous metal product prices and market demand. Third, geopolitical conflicts periodically pushed up aluminum and sulphuric acid prices, generating phased profit gains; combined with the low price base in H1 2025, these factors jointly drove a sharp YoY increase in profits this year. The profit structure of the industry chain showed a pattern of smelting leading, mining following, and processing being relatively weak. The contribution rates of the mining, smelting, and processing segments to industry profit growth were 23.6%, 65.5%, and 11.0%, respectively, boosting industry profit growth by 22.1, 61.6, and 10.3 percentage points. The profitability difference across the industry chain was significant, with operating profit margins for mining, smelting, and processing standing at 40.6%, 8.9%, and 2.0%, respectively, up 10.3, 3.4, and 0.7 percentage points YoY. The profit increase in the smelting segment was 132.74 billion yuan, accounting for 65.5% of the industry’s profit growth. Aluminum smelting and gold smelting contributed 56.7% and 17.3% of the profit increase in the smelting segment, making them the main drivers of profit growth in the segment. By product, the aluminum sector had the most prominent boosting effect, with a profit growth contribution rate of 43.5%. Dividends from supply-side structural reform in aluminum continued to be released, and global supply tightened due to geopolitical disruptions, pushing aluminum prices persistently higher. The contribution rates of gold, copper, and tungsten & molybdenum were 13.0%, 13.6%, and 9.0%, respectively. Together, these four categories contributed 79% of the industry’s profit growth, becoming the main force behind the profit rise. Profits in only two categories, antimony and silicon metal, were under pressure, while all other metal types achieved positive revenue increases. Chen Xuesen pointed out that since this year, the industry has demonstrated strong development resilience under the dual tests of external risk shocks and internal structural constraints. H1 operations presented three features: support from emerging industry demand, synchronized improvement in industry volume, price, and profit, diversified expansion of overseas resource deployment and continuous improvement of international resource guarantee systems, and prominent domestic resource supply constraints, with primary ores and recycled resources synergistically shoring up weaknesses. Taking all factors into account, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) makes the following projections for the industry's 2026 trajectory: H2 nonferrous industry value-added growth rate is expected to be higher than H1, with a full-year industry value-added growth rate of 2%~3%; production of ten nonferrous metals for the full year is up about 3% YoY; major nonferrous metal prices will swing wildly at highs, with geopolitical situations, downstream demand, and overseas supply being the core variables driving price fluctuations; total import and export value will maintain growth for the full year, with import growth being higher, driven by high-price resource procurement and safe-haven demand; exports of copper and aluminum semis and products possess stable resilience, continuing to provide support for stable foreign trade exports; full-year industry operating revenue and total profit remain up YoY, but revenue and profit growth rates will pull back in H2, with the growth rates showing a pattern of stronger first half and weaker second half; the profit allocation pattern remains unchanged, profit advantage at the resource end remains solid, and except for aluminum smelting, the room for profit improvement in other types of smelting and processing is relatively limited. Chen Xuesen stated that in the next step, the industry will closely follow the deployment and requirements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, focusing on three core tasks: strengthening the resource security baseline, expanding the recycled resource circular industry, accelerating the green and low-carbon transition and proactively addressing international green trade barriers, and cultivating new development momentum and activating enterprise innovation vitality. Multiple measures will be taken to solidify the foundations of the industry chain and supply chain, promoting both quality and efficiency improvements. (China Nonferrous Metals News)

[SMM Morning Tin Report: US Fed holds rates for 5th straight time, SHFE tin 2609 contract returns to 418,000]

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 29 Jul , 2026

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Stopped Falling; Off-Season Sales Pressure Capped Upside in Spot Stainless Steel According to SMM’s July 29 report, SS futures generally stopped falling and regained some ground. Supported by a weaker US dollar index and broad gains in base metal futures, SS underwent a similar recovery. By market close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,515 yuan/mt. In the spot market, spot stainless steel quotes had already declined on the previous afternoon, dragged by weak futures. Today, although the recovery in SS futures boosted inquiry activity in the spot market, traders’ strong willingness to sell in the off-season limited the extent of the rebound in spot quotes. SS most-traded futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was at 14,540 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 380-830 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; the average price for cold-rolled, mill-edge 304/2B coil fell 25 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 25 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; the quoted price for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both flat. This week, favorable macro and industry factors combined to support nickel and stainless steel futures in consolidating on a strong note. On the macro front, US inflation expectations pulled back, while continued geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran roiled market risk sentiment. On the industry front, expectations that the growth in Indonesia’s supplementary RKAB nickel ore quotas would be limited continued to ferment, effectively steadying the bottom for nickel prices and... .

According to foreign media reports, recently, the state-owned enterprise Mutapa Energy Resources of Zimbabwe announced that its Sandawana lithium mine project confirmed 39.9 million mt of JORC-compliant lithium resources, of which 28.7 million mt are measured resources, accounting for about 72% of the total. It is reported that the resources confirmed at the Sandawana lithium mine project this time cover only about 30% of the approximately 3,800-hectare mining right area. The first phase of exploration for the project lasted 11 months, completed 103,000 meters of drilling and 33,000 sample analyses, with a cumulative investment of $24 million.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: US Fed Rate Meeting in Early Morning, SHFE Tin 2609 Tests 410,000 Support]