As of April 30, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 23,645 yuan/mt, up 165 yuan/mt for the month, a gain of 0.7%. Zinc prices rebounded from lows in April, touching a low of 23,430 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month and a high of 24,515 yuan/mt at month-end, though the overall price center pulled back. Heading into May, with the tight domestic ore supply situation persisting, how will zinc prices perform?

During the May Day holiday in 2026, LME zinc traded in a general sideways range, finding solid support at the 40-day moving average. In terms of specific performance, LME zinc showed an N-shaped trend of rising first, then falling and rebounding again.

On April 14, Ye Jianhua, Director and Supervisor of the Industry Research Department of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Feng Chundi, Expert of the SMM Industry Research Institute, and Wu Tao, SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager, visited Chambishi Copper Smelter Limited (CCS) for exchange and survey, where they received warm hospitality from CCS leadership. During the visit, both parties engaged in pragmatic communication based on their respective core businesses. Leveraging its core strengths in non-ferrous metal price index R&D, industry chain big data monitoring, copper market analysis, in-depth industry research, and global non-ferrous resource connectivity, SMM shared insights on international copper market operating logic and price trend analysis, in the context of the current global copper smelting supply-demand pattern, raw material procurement landscape, and TC fluctuation trends. As a key copper smelting producer outside China, CCS provided a detailed introduction to its production and operation status, smelting process advantages, capacity release pace, raw material procurement, and product exports layout, elaborating on practical experience of ex-China copper smelters in production management, cost control, green production, and localized operations. Meanwhile, both parties exchanged views on common industry topics including development pain points of copper smelting outside China, raw material supply security, finished product circulation and trade, industry policy changes, and low-carbon smelting development trends. They also reached preliminary consensus on future directions such as industry chain information sharing, market data sharing, joint market analysis, and industry resource coordination, laying a solid foundation for deepening regular exchanges and promoting high-quality collaborative development of the copper smelting industry chain. Introduction to Chambishi Copper Smelter Limited (CCS) Chambishi Copper Smelter Limited (CCS) is the first large-scale modern pyrometallurgy copper smelting enterprise invested, fully independently designed and constructed by China outside China. Located in the Zambia-China Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone, the company has 170 Chinese staff and 1,600 Zambian employees. CCS has consistently focused on its vision of "building an evergreen, world-class smelter," upholding the corporate spirit of "self-transcendence, continuous breakthroughs, and pursuit of excellence," benchmarking against first-class standards with meticulous craftsmanship, and continuously strengthening and optimizing enterprise management, with its comprehensive competitiveness steadily improving. As of the end of 2024, the company had produced over 3.3 million mt of copper products and 8.7 million mt of sulphuric acid, with cumulative sales revenue of approximately $21 billion, effectively driving local economic development in Zambia and becoming a shining pearl along the Belt and Road! Enterprise History and Development Achievements (Pursuing Excellence, Benchmarking Against the Best and Forging Ahead) To extend the industry chain and retain more added value locally, in 2006, China Nonferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. partnered with Yunnan Copper to introduce the advanced ISA copper smelting process to Zambia, with shareholding ratios of 60% and 40%, respectively. From the design stage, the company drew on successful experience in China and combined it with the characteristics of Zambian raw materials to re-optimize and innovate key processes and technologies of the ISASMELT process, strengthening system integration. This resulted in multiple innovative achievements, including "Integration Innovation and Application of ISASMELT Furnace" and "Comprehensive Automated Control System," which were awarded the First Prize for Scientific and Technological Progress by CNIA in 2010. The ISASMELT furnace campaign life broke world records multiple times, with the second campaign reaching 218 weeks and the third campaign reaching 244 weeks, becoming an international benchmark. In 2021 and 2022, the company's copper production exceeded the designed capacity of 250,000 mt for two consecutive years, making history. In 2024, production further surpassed 260,000 mt, setting a new historical record. In September 2013, the company was honored with the title of Advanced Collective of Central State-Owned Enterprises. In July 2021, it was successfully selected as a benchmark enterprise under the management of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. Process Flow (Dedicated and Professional, Pursuing Excellence for Development) The company adopted the internationally advanced and mature process of "oxygen-enriched top-blown submerged bath smelting, electric furnace settling and separation, PS converter blowing, and anode furnace pyrometallurgy refining" to produce copper anode, and the "double-conversion double-absorption" process to produce sulphuric acid. Adhering to the concept of sustainable development, the company built a slag flotation recovery system with a daily processing capacity of 1,500 mt of slag and a bismuth recovery system with a daily processing capacity of 6 mt of flue dust, continuing to recover metals such as copper, cobalt, and bismuth from smelting slag and flue dust. Social Responsibility (Cooperation and Sharing, Giving Back to Society with Strong Responsibility) The company actively practiced its core values of "dedication, cooperation, and sharing," consistently focusing on its core business of copper pyrometallurgy smelting, cooperating extensively with upstream and downstream clients, and sharing development achievements with employees and local communities. Since its establishment, the company had cumulatively paid over $300 million in various taxes and fees in Zambia, created over 5,000 job opportunities, and cooperated with more than 300 local suppliers, contributing to Zambia's green, harmonious, and shared development. The company actively fulfilled its social responsibilities by increasing investment in social welfare programs for local communities in Zambia, covering infrastructure, education, healthcare, and sanitation. It sponsored the renovation of clinics in Kalulushi, the Bushifire Orphanage, and donated to build classrooms at Buyantashi School, Luato Market, Kankuko Bridge, Chibuluma Community Tennis Court, Chimfunshi Chimpanzee Rescue Center, and Modern Stars Football Club, among others. The cumulative investment exceeded $4 million, earning high praise from the local government and warm welcome from the public, and establishing a positive corporate image. The company actively promoted employee localization and continuously achieved skills transfer. The company invested over 5 million Kwacha, and externally carried out technical and non-technical training programs in electric welding, electrical power, pneumatics, technical control, management supervision, and equipment maintenance through the China-Zambia Vocational and Technical College, TEVETA Fund, and other channels. Internally, through mentorship programs, the company conducted business training in masonry, fitting, and other skills. The localization rate of company employees reached over 92%, local employees' skills were significantly improved, and technical expertise was exported to the DRC. Vision and Outlook (Staying True to Our Mission, Building a Shared Future Together) Innovation-driven development knows no bounds. Over the past decade, the company has upheld a sense of survival crisis and market competition awareness, adhered to innovation-driven development, and achieved high-quality growth. In 2021, the company's IT infrastructure was completed and successfully put into use, committed to building an automated, digitalized, and intelligent factory. In August 2023, the company's anode furnace pyrometallurgy refining system technical renovation project was completed and put into operation. In November 2024, the company's three-year action plan for technology-empowered safety and environmental protection was officially established, focusing on technology empowerment and fostering new quality productive forces, propelling the company's high-quality development to a new level. Through collaborative development, benchmarking against first-class standards, technological innovation, and increased production and efficiency, the company continues to advance toward its enterprise vision of "becoming an evergreen, world-class smelter." is scheduled to be held on October 13-14, 2026 in Lusaka, Zambia. Welcome to participate! Contact Person : Wu Tao: 18270916376 jennywu@smm.cn

[Intraday SHFE Zinc Fluctuated at Highs, Export Window Worth Watching]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,910 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE zinc fluctuated around the daily average line. It touched a high of 24,000 yuan/mt early in the session, then dipped to a low of 23,855 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closed higher at 23,905 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt or 0.02%.

Since the joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, tensions in the Middle East have persisted for 45 days. Against this backdrop, the die-casting zinc alloy market in China has been affected to varying degrees in terms of costs, demand, and industrial structure. The following is a detailed analysis.

This week, the center of nickel prices moved lower WoW, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract fluctuating within 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt. Early in the week, it fell below the 135,000 yuan mark amid weaker macro sentiment, but in the latter part of the week, rumors of maintenance at HPAL projects provided strong support around 133,000 yuan, and prices eventually returned to fluctuate around 137,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday's close, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 0.14% WoW, while LME nickel gained 0.06% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 140,510 yuan/mt this week, up 850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 6,800 yuan/mt this week, down 100 yuan/mt WoW, while premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Overall spot transactions were mediocre this week. On the macro front, geopolitical risks escalated markedly this week. In his first statement after taking office, Iran's new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that a new front would be opened if necessary. US ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, above market expectations. As a result, the US dollar index strengthened, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. Pan Gongsheng, governor of China's central bank, said the next step would be to build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Inventory side, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 87,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,000 mt WoW. In Indonesia's Morowali region, some HPAL plants cut production due to tailings accidents. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East raised the risk of sulfur supply disruptions, and the market expected future MHP intermediate product supply to be tight, with strong willingness to hold prices firm, which would provide some cost support for nickel prices. However, the area above 140,000 yuan/mt still faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

This week, nickel prices experienced a sharp sell-off triggered by a sudden reversal in macro sentiment and high inventory pressure from the fundamentals. At the start of the week, the market came under pressure amid expectations of a "hawkish" nomination for the new Fed Chairman. Panic sentiment peaked on February 2, with LME and SHFE nickel prices plunging simultaneously. LME nickel prices fell below the $17,000 mark during the week, while the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) hit an 11% limit-down intraday, erasing gains from January driven by Indonesian policy expectations, and ended the week down more than 9%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 139,300 yuan/mt this week, down 10,350 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/mt, up 2,200 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands remained stable in the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Due to the sharp decline in nickel prices this week, end-users' willingness to restock at low prices increased, and market transactions improved significantly compared to last week. On the macro front, Trump nominated former governor Kevin Warsh, seen as a "hawkish" representative, as the next Fed Chairman this week. The market's widely expected "dovish" candidate did not materialize, leading to a reversal in expectations for future monetary policy. Warsh advocates lowering interest rates through "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," which was interpreted by the market as a tightening of global liquidity, causing the US dollar index to strengthen significantly and putting pressure on precious and non-ferrous metal prices. In the short term, market sentiment will take time to recover, and with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, capital remains cautious. However, the medium and long-term logic supporting nickel prices—expectations of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quota (RKAB) approvals—has not disappeared, and nickel prices are still expected to rebound. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is forecast to trade in the range of 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt next week. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, with a WoW buildup of 500 mt. Domestic social inventory was about 73,000 mt, with a WoW buildup of about 2,600 mt.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Considerably at High Levels] Overall, the current SHFE aluminum price has experienced a short-term sharp rise driven by events and capital, with market trading sentiment in a phase of excitement. Subsequently, caution is needed against the risk of sentiment cooling and market correction triggered by multiple factors.

SMM, May 19, 2025 The most-traded SHFE lead 2506 contract opened at 16,925 yuan/mt during the day. It rose slightly in early trading, touching a high of 16,985 yuan/mt. However, due to the lingering uncertainties in tariff negotiations and the sluggish spot trades of domestic lead ingots, bearish sentiment prevailed. In the afternoon, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward, reaching a low of 16,835 yuan/mt at the close, and eventually closed at 16,860 yuan/mt, down 0.06%, with an open interest of 27,388. Recently, macro sentiment has been unstable, exerting a significant impact on non-ferrous metal prices. Additionally, the import window for crude lead has opened to some extent, with some producers having purchased corresponding supplies. Given the limited production enthusiasm of downstream battery producers, caution is advised regarding the drag on lead prices from potential inventory buildup pressure in the lead ingot market. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Disagreements Between Bulls and Bears Intensify at the 260,000 Mark, SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Considerably] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) opened at 262,500 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous trading day's closing price of 261,480 yuan/mt. The price fluctuated and consolidated during the session. In the morning, non-ferrous metals were generally under pressure, and the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 259,980 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.26% intraday. Trading volume and open interest decreased slightly, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.