[Geopolitical Tensions Eased, Zinc Prices Rebounded] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,700 yuan/mt. In early trading, bears reduced open interest, and SHFE zinc rose rapidly to a high of 23,735 yuan/mt. It then saw its center drop back slightly and hovered around 23,600 yuan/mt before closing up at 23,550 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. Trading volume fell to 87,777 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,612 lots to 88,931 lots.

[Weaker Macro Sentiment, SHFE Zinc Center Shifted Lower]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,460 yuan/mt. Early in the session, bulls reduced open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward to a low below 24,300 yuan/mt. As downward momentum proved insufficient, the SHFE zinc center moved higher. It closed down at 24,415 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.02%. Trading volume fell to 105,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 5,934 lots to 74,747 lots.

[SHFE Zinc Center Shifted Higher]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,255 yuan/mt. Early in the session, bulls reduced open interest, and SHFE zinc edged lower to test 24,160 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bears reduced open interest, lifting the center of SHFE zinc. It touched a high and finally closed up at 24,420 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.66%. Trading volume increased to 161,000 lots, while open interest fell by 4,635 lots to 80,681 lots.

SMM News on June 5: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,985/mt, rising slightly during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first dipped and then rallied to a high of $1,994.5/mt, before dipping to a low of $1,979.5/mt shortly before the close. It finally closed at $1,984/mt, down $2/mt or 0.1%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2507 contract opened at 16,680 yuan/mt, consolidating horizontally near the 16,700 yuan/mt level under pressure in the early session. It then rose to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt, before experiencing a slight correction and finally closing at 16,725 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt or 0.54%.

[SMM Commentary: Precious Metal Futures and Stocks Performed "Remarkably" This Week, While Spot Silver Trading Remained Sluggish. How Do Major Institutions View the Market Outlook?] On May 23, amid intensifying market concerns over the deterioration of the US fiscal outlook, a weaker US dollar, and ongoing unrest in the Middle East, market risk-averse sentiment surged, driving precious metal futures and stocks to rise in tandem. In the futures market: As of 16:15 on May 23, COMEX gold rose by 1.01%, closing at $3,328.4 per ounce; COMEX silver rose by 0.7%, closing at $33.45 per ounce; SHFE gold rose by 0.1%, while SHFE silver fell by 0.37%, and silver T+D fell by 0.39%. In the stock market: On the 23rd, as the broader market experienced a nearly 1% decline, the precious metals sector bucked the trend and strengthened, ultimately leading the gains across all industries with a 1.96% increase.

SMM May 23 News: On May 23, driven by heightened market concerns over the deteriorating fiscal outlook in the US, a weaker US dollar, and ongoing unrest in the Middle East, risk-averse sentiment surged in the market, leading to a collective rally in precious metals futures and stocks. In the futures market: As of 16:15 on May 23, COMEX gold rose by 1.01%, closing at $3,328.4 per ounce; COMEX silver increased by 0.7%, closing at $33.45 per ounce; SHFE gold rose by 0.1%, while SHFE silver fell by 0.37%, and silver T+D declined by 0.39%. In the stock market: On the 23rd, amidst a nearly 1% decline in the broader market, the precious metals sector bucked the trend and strengthened, ultimately leading the gains across all industries with a 1.96% increase. It is worth noting that precious metals futures and stocks have generally performed well this week. As of around 17:09 on May 23, COMEX gold had temporarily risen by 4.37% week-on-week, poised to record its largest single-week gain in over a month; COMEX silver had temporarily increased by 3.16% week-on-week; SHFE gold had risen by 3.76% week-on-week, SHFE silver had risen by 1.95% week-on-week; and the precious metals index had risen by 6.96% week-on-week. News Updates The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) issued a notice on May 23 regarding market risk control during the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The notice stated: In accordance with the holiday schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival, our exchange will be closed from May 31 (Saturday) to June 2 (Monday). There will be no night trading session on the evening of May 30 (Friday), and trading will resume as usual on June 3 (Tuesday). To guard against fluctuations in gold and silver prices in the international market during the holiday, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures", our exchange will adjust the margin ratios and price limits for gold and silver deferred contracts. The relevant matters are hereby notified as follows: 1. Starting from the settlement and clearing at the close of trading on Tuesday, May 27, 2025, the margin ratios for contracts such as Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 will be adjusted from 13% to 14%, and the price limits for the next trading day will be adjusted from 12% to 13%; the margin ratio for the Ag(T+D) contract will be adjusted from 16% to 17%, and the price limit for the next trading day will be adjusted from 15% to 16%. If a one-sided market occurs on May 27, and the adjusted margin and price limit levels, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures", are higher than the aforementioned standards, the higher standards shall apply. 2. After trading resumes on Tuesday, June 3, 2025, starting from the settlement and clearing at the close of the first trading day without a one-sided market, the margin ratios for contracts such as Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 will revert to 13%, and the price limits for the next trading day will revert to 12%; the margin ratio for the Ag(T+D) contract will revert to 16%, and the price limit for the next trading day will revert to 15%. All members are requested to enhance their awareness of risk prevention, meticulously formulate and implement risk emergency response plans, and advise investors to take measures for risk prevention, reasonably control their positions, invest rationally, and ensure the stable and healthy operation of the market. After last-minute amendments before the vote, the landmark tax cut bill proposed during Trump's 2.0 term finally narrowly passed the US House of Representatives, being sent to the Senate with a slim margin of just one vote in favor over opposition. Market observers are concerned that the measures in the bill may widen the US government's budget deficit, placing greater pressure on the US bond market. (Wall Street CN) On May 23, Bank of America Global Research stated in a report that the gold market experienced a net outflow of $2.9 billion in the week ending Wednesday, marking the largest weekly outflow since April 2013 and the third-largest on record. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ending May 17 was 227,000, compared to market expectations of 230,000 and the previous week's 229,000. The number of continuing unemployment claims for the week ending May 10 was 1.903 million, compared to market expectations of 1.885 million and the previous week's 1.881 million. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell by 2,000 to a four-week low last week, indicating that despite uncertainties brought about by trade policies, the labor market remains healthy. However, the number of continuing claims has risen, making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. Silver spot prices show significant gains, with market transactions improving. 》Click to view SMM precious metal spot prices 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot prices In the spot market: On May 23, the morning reference average ex-factory price for SMM1# silver was 8,215 yuan/kg, down 54 yuan/kg or 0.65% from the previous trading day. Compared to 8,090 yuan/kg on May 16 (last Friday), the average price of 8,215 yuan/kg represents an increase of 125 yuan/kg, with a weekly gain of 1.55%. It is reported that macroeconomic factors have boosted silver prices this week, with spot premiums from suppliers experiencing a slight decline towards the end of the week. Domestic spot market supply and demand have both declined, with some smelters suspending domestic spot quotes during the week due to factors such as prioritizing export demand. In the Shanghai area, tonne-scale national standard spot silver ingots available for self pick-up were quoted at a premium of 3-5 yuan/kg over TD, while large smelters' spot silver ingots were quoted at a premium of +5 to +8 yuan/kg over TD. Actual transactions at higher premium quotes were relatively difficult this week. In addition, silver nitrate production declined in late May, with downstream purchases primarily focused on long-term contract cargo pick-ups and spot order purchasing enthusiasm significantly weaker compared to April. Voices from All Sides [Is the Gold Bull Market Just Beginning? Analysts Say Historical Experience Suggests Prices Could Reach $4,500] Technical analyst and editor of *Daily Gold*, Jordan Roy-Byrne, pointed out that gold prices broke through a 13-year cup-and-handle formation in March last year, marking an important technical confirmation. Now, the driving factors of the macroeconomic situation are also converging, with the market witnessing rising US Treasury yields, the bond market entering a prolonged bear market, and a collapse in credit quality. He emphasized that similar macroeconomic backgrounds and technical conditions were present during the early stages of the gold bull markets in 1930, 1972, and 2002. Additionally, gold prices have surpassed the S&P 500 Index and the 60/40 portfolio, with inflation-adjusted gold prices just breaking above a 45-year low. Roy-Byrne stated that it is entirely possible for gold prices to reach $3,700 by the end of the year, and historical experience suggests that gold prices will reach $4,400 to $4,500 within the next 12 months. Furthermore, silver prices are also expected to surpass $100. 》Click for details Guosen Futures' research report points out: On the news front, the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May both rose to 52.3, better than expected and the previous values. Enterprises accelerated stockpiling due to tariff risks, boosting the data. However, supply chain delays and soaring input costs exacerbated inflation stickiness, potentially strengthening market expectations that the US Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged, thereby suppressing precious metals in the short term. Coupled with the advancement of Trump's tax reform bill and the escalating risk of conflict between Iran and Israel, precious metals may continue to oscillate between the logic of policy tightening and stagflation hedging, with short-term technicals likely to remain volatile. In the medium and long-term, global central bank gold purchases and recurring geopolitical tensions are expected to consolidate the allocation value of precious metals. Regarding the trend of precious metals, SDIC Futures believes that the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May both recorded 52.3, better than expected and the previous values, with weekly initial jobless claims falling to a four-week low of 227,000. Economic data remains resilient, causing precious metals to pull back. With recent trade wars and geopolitical conflicts still in the negotiation phase, market sentiment will continue to fluctuate, and the adjustment of international gold prices is unlikely to end soon. However, gold prices have shown resilience above the strong support level of $3,000 per ounce. The Chief Investment Office (CIO) of UBS Wealth Management expressed institutional views in early May, stating that the US dollar has recently been oversold and is expected to consolidate for a period in the short term. In the medium term, the trend of US dollar weakness may re-emerge, while gold prices should be well supported by "safe-haven" demand and structural buying. Goldman Sachs reiterated its structurally bullish view on gold, with a base case forecast of $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 by mid-2026. The World Gold Council's press conference for the Global Gold Demand Trends Report for Q1 2025 was held on April 30. It was revealed at the conference that demand for gold ETFs in the Chinese market surged synchronously, with inflows of approximately 16.7 billion yuan (about $2.3 billion, equivalent to 23 mt) in Q1, reaching a record high. The soaring gold price and unprecedented inflows propelled both the total assets under management (AUM) and total open interest of gold ETFs to break historical records, reaching highs of 101 billion yuan (about $13.9 billion) and 138 mt, respectively. According to statistics, the total gold consumption demand in the Chinese market in Q1 (including gold bars, coins, and jewelry) was 249 mt, down 15% YoY, primarily due to weak demand for gold jewelry. In addition to bullish views on gold, however, some market participants anticipate a decline in gold prices. Vitaly Nesis, CEO of Solidcore, Kazakhstan's second-largest gold mining company, stated on April 25 that the company plans to produce approximately 15 mt of gold annually in Kazakhstan in 2025 and 2026. Gold has risen nearly 26% year-to-date due to concerns about an economic recession triggered by US tariffs. Nesis expects gold prices to fall in the coming year. He said, "I anticipate gold prices will fall to $2,500 within 12 months. Gold prices will not return to the $1,800-$1,900 range. A premium relative to fundamental levels will persist. However, the current situation represents an overreaction to what is happening in the world." Recommended Reading: 》Silver Bottoms Out and Rebounds, Market Focuses on Inflation and Geopolitical Risk Aversion [SMM Weekly Review of Silver Market]

SMM April 27 News: Metal Market: Overnight Friday, both domestic and overseas metal markets mostly declined, with only LME tin and SHFE aluminum rising, up 0.67% and 0.08% respectively. LME nickel led the losses with a 2.09% drop, followed by SHFE nickel (down 1.22%), LME zinc (down 1.56%), while other metals fell less than 1%. Alumina main contract dropped 0.42%. Ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore down 1.33% and stainless steel down 0.31%. HRC and rebar both rose over 1%, gaining 2.21% and 1.67% respectively. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.42% while coke dipped 0.25%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.55% overnight Friday but edged up 0.05% weekly, pressured by a stronger US dollar and weaker safe-haven demand. COMEX silver dropped 1.43% overnight but rose 1.71% weekly. Domestically, SHFE gold declined 0.77% overnight Friday but gained 0.22% weekly, while SHFE silver fell 0.93%. TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali noted that tariff tensions easing negatively impacted gold prices, but large-scale position unwinding hasn’t been observed yet. However, he added that investors continued bargain-hunting in recent sessions, suggesting gold could resume its upward trajectory. Overnight Friday closing prices as of 9:04 AM April 27: 》Click to view SMM futures dashboard Macro Front: Domestic: 【CPC Politburo Holds Meeting to Analyze Current Economic Situation and Work】 The meeting emphasized adhering to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implementing the new development philosophy, accelerating the establishment of a new development paradigm, balancing domestic economic work and international trade struggles, resolutely managing China’s own affairs, expanding high-level opening-up, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and responding to external uncertainties with the certainty of high-quality development. 》Click for details Xinhua Commentary published an article titled "Q1 China Economic Observation｜Implementing More Proactive Fiscal Policy Effectively". It stressed ensuring fiscal funds are deployed swiftly and effectively, optimizing expenditure structure, strengthening performance management, and directing every yuan toward critical areas of national welfare. 【Pan Gongsheng: Implementing Appropriately Accommodative Monetary Policy to Promote High-Quality Economic Growth】 Per the PBOC website, the second G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting of 2025 was held in Washington, DC on April 23-24, discussing global economic outlook, international financial architecture reform, and Africa’s development challenges. PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng attended and spoke, with Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng also present. Participants acknowledged ongoing global recovery but highlighted rising downside risks from trade tensions, tighter financing conditions, and structural challenges. Concerns were voiced over trade friction escalation, calling for enhanced dialogue, policy coordination, and multilateral trade system improvements. Support was expressed for a more stable, efficient, and resilient international financial framework, including multilateral development banks’ financing capacity. Pan stressed that economic fragmentation and trade tensions disrupt supply chains and weaken growth momentum, noting trade wars have no winners. Major economies should strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and take concrete steps to safeguard global stability. China’s economy started 2025 well, maintaining recovery momentum with stable financial markets. The PBOC will implement appropriately accommodative monetary policy to advance high-quality growth. US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.33% overnight Friday and 0.38% weekly, marking its first weekly gain since mid-March. Contradictory signals on tariff tensions caused volatility. On Monday, Trump’s criticism of Fed Chairman Powell triggered dollar asset sell-offs, pushing it to a low near 97.92—its weakest since April 8, 2022. However, Trump’s shifting rhetoric later lifted it above 99, though resistance at 100 persisted. The Fed warned asset valuations remained elevated post-April sell-offs, with housing prices still high. Next week brings key US data and earnings. Q1 GDP, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and April jobs data may influence rate-cut decisions. Employment figures will be pivotal as the nonfarm payrolls report reveals tariff and tightening impacts on the labor market. (Wenhua Composite) Other Currencies: USD/JPY rose 0.67% to 143.555 yen, while USD/CHF gained 0.09% to 0.827 francs. EUR/USD fell 0.11% to 1.1377. Despite strong UK retail sales, GBP/USD dipped 0.1% to 1.3325. BOJ Governor Ueda stated Thursday that rate hikes would continue if underlying inflation trends toward 2%, but US tariff effects require careful assessment. GBP/USD declined 0.1% to 1.3325 despite March retail sales growing 0.4% (vs. expected -0.4%). Q1 sales rose 1.6%, the strongest in four years. MPC member Greene noted tariffs’ downward pressure on UK inflation, bolstering rate-cut bets. Markets now price in two cuts over the next three meetings and at least one more by year-end. Macro Outlook: Next week, China releases April official manufacturing PMI; the US reports ADP employment, Q1 GDP (annualized q/q), core PCE, consumer spending, Chicago PMI, personal spending, core PCE (y/y), pending home sales, jobless claims, SPGI/ISM manufacturing PMIs, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, durable goods, factory orders, wholesale inventories, and consumer confidence; the eurozone publishes M3 money supply, industrial/economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, SPGI PMI, core CPI, and unemployment; Germany issues Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, unemployment, Q1 GDP, CPI, and SPGI PMI; Australia reports Q1 CPI, trade data; the UK shares CBI retail sales and SPGI PMI; France discloses Q1 GDP and SPGI PMI; Switzerland releases official reserves and economic expectations. Japan’s May 1 policy rate, March unemployment, Canada’s February GDP, and manufacturing PMIs for Mexico, Malaysia, and Brazil are also due. Additionally, Canada holds federal elections; the BoC releases April meeting minutes; BOJ Governor Ueda holds a press conference and issues the outlook report. Notably, due to China’s Labor Day holiday, SHFE, DCE, CZCE, and GFEX will suspend night trading on April 30. On May 1, exchanges in China (including Taiwan), South Korea, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK will close. Hong Kong operates normally but suspends northbound/southbound trading. On May 5, Chinese mainland exchanges remain closed, while LME halts for the Early May Bank Holiday. South Korea observes Buddha’s Birthday, Japan celebrates Children’s Day, and Hong Kong closes for Buddha’s Birthday, with trading resuming May 6. Crude Oil: Oil prices rose overnight—WTI up 0.61%, Brent up 0.27%—but posted weekly losses (WTI -1.31%, Brent -1.75%) on surplus concerns and tariff uncertainty. Prices hit four-year lows earlier this month as tariffs sparked demand worries and financial sell-offs. Weak growth may curb demand, while supply could rise if Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, freeing more Russian oil. Baker Hughes reported US rig counts increased for the second straight week, the first since February. (Wenhua Composite)

[LME Copper and SHFE Copper Fell in Night Session; Spot Trades Sluggish Under High Contango Structure] Macro side, US Fed's Harker stated that the current economic situation supports temporarily maintaining stable interest rate policy; Bowman mentioned that stronger confidence in inflation decline is needed before cutting interest rates again. Inflation is expected to decline, but upside risks remain. The US dollar index remained stable, and copper prices' center shifted downward after contract rollover.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Fundamentals Favorable, Aluminum Prices May Run on the Strong Side] Overnight, the main SHFE aluminum contract 2410 opened at 19,450 yuan/ton, reached a high of 19,495 yuan/ton, hit a low of 19,385 yuan/ton, and closed at 19,465 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.08%...

[SMM Tin Afternoon Commentary: Shanghai Tin Prices Fluctuated Upward, Spot Market Trading Remained Desolate] Today, tin prices fluctuated upward. A few downstream enterprises placed orders in the overnight trading session yesterday, and the price increase in the morning session suppressed the purchasing enthusiasm of most downstream enterprises. Most trading enterprises made sporadic transactions. In general, spot market trading in the morning was relatively desolate...