Scrap tightening and a major nickel-cobalt producer's output cut pushed SHFE stainless steel to levels not seen since 2023 — yet physical demand remains conspicuously absent heading into the May Day break

[SMM Daily Comment: Supply and Demand Resonate on Both Sides, NPI Prices Continue to Rise] On April 30, SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.58, up 0.04 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 2.6, flat MoM.

Based on SMM research, the week of April 20 to April 24, 2026, Indonesian stainless steel export prices followed a stable then surging trend. While quotations remained steady early in the week due to prevailing market caution, they collectively rose by USD30/mt by Friday (April 24). This increase was driven by rising nickel ore prices, which pushed NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) production costs higher, lifting FOB Indonesia 300-series prices. Notably, driven by rising global molybdenum costs, 316-series prices are now approaching the USD4,000/mt threshold. Image 1: Review of FOB Indonesia 304 Stainless Steel Prices in April Image 2: Review of FOB Indonesia 316 Stainless Steel Prices in April The upward momentum in overseas stainless steel prices stems from structural tightening at the raw material end. The official implementation of Indonesia’s new Nickel Ore Pricing Formula (HPM), coupled with the announced suspension of operations for maintenance at a major Indonesian nickel mine starting in May, has caused an abrupt tightening of ore supply. This supply crunch is propagating down the value chain, supporting firm NPI quotations and directly inflating the immediate steelmaking costs for mills. On the demand side, the Southeast Asian downstream market is currently in an inventory depletion phase. Upstream mills maintain a strong stance on pricing, pushing for further hikes toward the end of the week. Conversely, downstream buyers remain resistant to these high price levels, restricting procurement to hand-to-mouth replenishment. According to SMM research, local DDP 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices in Malaysia are currently ranging between RM 9.50 and RM 10.50/kg . The European market has witnessed a slight trend of defensive restocking. The core driver is the impending expiry of the current EU TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) on June 30 . Starting July 1 , the updated policy is expected to see quotas slashed by nearly half and potential tax rates doubled. To hedge against high tariff risks in the second half of the year, European traders have recently concentrated purchases on cargoes arriving before the end of June, triggering a counter-seasonal inventory buildup. SMM reports that local DDP 304 CRC prices in Europe are hovering between €2,700 and €2,900/mt . Market activity in Taiwan, China remains relatively subdued, with buyers prioritizing the consumption of existing stocks and showing little appetite for restocking. Although upstream mills continue to raise April ex-factory prices, pushing local 304 CRC prices to a range of NT$ 69,300 to NT$ 74,000/mt, the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers has overshadowed replenishment needs now that prices have hit historical highs, significantly limiting market liquidity. Overall transaction dynamics this week reflect a stark imbalance between the upstream and downstream sectors. Upstream mills, driven by cost pressures, remain firm in their pricing strategies, while downstream buyers maintain a cautious stance, sticking to essential-only purchasing. Given that May list prices have been released and mills remain resolute in their pricing, coupled with the pre-June 30 policy-driven hedging demand in Europe, overseas prices are expected to remain elevated in the short term. SMM anticipates that overseas stainless steel quotations will continue to fluctuate within a high-side range.

The Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) market looks firm on the surface — but dig one layer deeper and two very different realities emerge for high-grade and low-grade material.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Positive Nickel Ore Policy Boosts Stainless Steel Futures Prices, but Cautious Downstream Keeps Transactions Weak with Stable Spot Prices SMM, April 14 — SS futures continued their strong upward trend. Influenced by yesterday's news of Indonesia's nickel ore HPM formula adjustment, both SHFE nickel and SS futures rose. As of the morning session close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,600 yuan/mt. Spot market side, driven by the consecutive rise in SS futures and the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore HPM formula, market expectations were that nickel pig iron smelting costs would increase, strengthening confidence in cost support for stainless steel. However, downstream acceptance of high prices remained limited, and spot quotes had not yet followed the upward move, with overall transactions remaining stable. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,590 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 30-230 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi held steady, and the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area held...

Macro tailwinds drive a 320 yuan recovery in SS2605, while high supply and weak spot demand limit the upside

Nickel Ore " RKAB Approval Delays and Policy Shifts Expected to Drive Nickel Ore Prices Higher" This week, the price of domestic nickel ore in Indonesia has increased. In the first half of April, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,093 per dry metric ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.37%. According to SMM's Indonesian nickel ore premium data, the average premiums for laterite nickel ore with grades of 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% were reported at $37.5, $41.5, and $42 per wet metric ton respectively. Among them, the domestic arrival price for 1.6% grade nickel ore was $69.2–75.2 per wet metric ton. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflects the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations regarding the reduction of RKAB quotas. Meanwhile, the delivery price of 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore has also increased to $27–30 per wet metric ton. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, as of April 10, 2026, according to the forecast of the Indonesian Meteorological Agency BMKG, core nickel ore producing regions such as Morowali, Kolaka, and Halmahera will face continuous moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms this week, with humidity expected to approach the saturation level of 99%. Under the combined effect of active atmospheric waves and thick clouds, this extremely humid and changeable weather is expected to continue to constrain the mining efficiency of open-pit mines, slow down logistics and transportation, and further increase the operational difficulty of high-moisture management during the shipping process of laterite nickel ore. The current market is facing an obvious trend of grade decline. Although some NPI smelters have begun to accept ore with a grade of 1.45% and below, pyrometallurgical ore remains tight in April. Currently, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia announced to the media on April 6, 2026, that approximately 190 million to 200 million tons of nickel production quotas in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) have been approved. At present, some mining enterprises have received preliminary notices from the government regarding the latest quota indicators, but most enterprises have yet to obtain the final approved data. The market generally expects that the final approved amount of the 2026 RKAB will be officially finalized in the second week of April. In terms of demand, due to the resource uncertainty faced by some smelters in Indonesia and the difficulty in obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices have shown strong performance. To ensure raw material supply, some smelters have even increased trade bonuses. Hydrometallurgical Ore Additionally, there have been some transactions of low-grade saprolite ore in the market, with its fixed price relatively lower than that of high-grade ore. Following the significant increase in the price of pyrometallurgical ore, the price of limonite has also risen, aiming to further stimulate the sales enthusiasm of mines. In terms of shipping costs, affected by the increase in domestic fuel prices in Indonesia, inter-island logistics costs have shown an upward trend. It is estimated that as the RKAB quotas of mines are gradually issued in the future, freight demand will further increase, and domestic shipping costs may face a new round of upward pressure at that time. On the policy side, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia is finalizing the review of the calculation formula for the Mineral Reference Price (HPM) of nickel ore and plans to officially implement it within April 2026. Tri Winarno, the Director General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate, pointed out that the current HPM can no longer accurately reflect the current market price, especially failing to cover the "market premium" actually paid by smelters. Although the regulatory details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still await finalization by inter-ministerial bodies, judging from the current policy trend, this may indicate that the era of tax-free exports of nickel intermediate products from Indonesia is coming to an end. Looking ahead to the after-market, the continuous tightening of Indonesia's policies is expected to open up further upward space for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain. Overall, affected by potential major policy adjustments in Indonesia in the future, market uncertainty has increased, supporting the continuous volatile strengthening of Indonesia's nickel ore prices. Nickel Pig Iron "High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 2.25 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1080.25 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.43 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 137.01 per nickel unit. High-grade NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) market conditions generally remained steady. As transaction levels stabilized, the market entered a period of tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players, leaving prices under short-term pressure. From the supply side, the center of upstream quotes continued to drift slightly lower. The market has seen a notable increase in the availability of stainless steel scrap. Under the dual weight of weak terminal demand and the cost-effectiveness of scrap, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI are increasingly showing signs of softening. In Indonesia, domestic nickel ore prices have risen, and the market is grappling with a clear decline in ore grades; consequently, the supply of saprolite for pyrometallurgical processing remains tight for April. In the stainless steel spot market, social inventory levels remain at absolute highs. Despite significant pressure to move shipments, steel mills are maintaining high production rates. While there is some support from the cost side, the mills themselves are facing heavy internal cost pressures. Furthermore, with the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap becoming more prominent, mills have low tolerance for high-priced NPI and are maintaining a cautious procurement stance. In summary, NPI prices remain locked in a short-term stalemate between upstream and downstream. Influenced by competition from scrap and limited buying interest from stainless steel mills, prices continue to face overhead pressure.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Moved Sideways, Stainless Steel Spot Trading Was Mediocre and Struggled to Rise On April 9, SMM reported that SS futures continued to move sideways. The US and Iran temporarily ceased fire, but geopolitical conflicts had not truly subsided, and uncertainty at the macro perspective remained elevated. SS futures failed to extend the previous rally and mainly moved sideways, closing at 14,320 yuan/mt as of the midday session. In the spot market, affected by the pause in the futures rally, the stainless steel spot market still saw some inquiry activity, but actual transactions were still dominated by low-priced sources; traders attempted to slightly raise their quotes, but actual transaction gains were limited. The most-traded SS futures contract moved sideways. At 10:15 AM, the most-traded SS2605 futures contract was quoted at 14,290 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 180-380 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi fell by 100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan remained stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area fell by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April." Downstream demand fundamentals have recovered compared to the earlier period, with end-user procurement continuing at a just-needed pace, and the overall trading volume was sufficient to hold quotes firm for basic market vitality. However, affected by macro news disturbances and futures fluctuations, downstream end-user clients still...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] US-Iran Ceasefire Boosted SS Futures Higher, Stainless Steel Spot Market Showed Signs of Warming On April 8, SMM reported that SS futures showed a strengthening and upward-probing trend. Influenced by the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, non-ferrous metal futures generally opened higher in the morning session, with SS futures rising in tandem, closing at 14,325 yuan/mt by the midday session. Spot market side, driven by the news, the strengthening of SS futures lifted spot market activity, with inquiry enthusiasm increasing notably. Although downstream buyers had not yet accepted higher offers, traders' quotes had already edged up. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,265 yuan/mt, up 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 155-355 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi remained flat and in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April." Downstream demand fundamentals recovered compared with the earlier period, with end-user procurement continuing at a just-in-time pace, and overall trading volume was sufficient to hold quotes firm. However, affected by macro news disturbances and futures fluctuations, downstream end-user clients still maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, showing no willingness to stockpile, and transactions fluctuated with changes in news. Futures side, the Iranian geopolitical conflict...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Retreated after Rapid Rise on First Day after Qingming Festival, Stainless Steel Spot Quotes Remained Stable SMM April 7 — SS futures retreated after a rapid rise. After the morning opening, SS futures once surged rapidly before being dragged down by the decline in non-ferrous futures, closing at 14,135 yuan/mt by the midday close. Spot market side, affected by the overall fluctuations in futures, spot traders continued to maintain a strategy of holding prices stable for shipments. Downstream end-users remained cautiously on the sidelines, purchasing mainly based on rigid demand, with mediocre inquiry and trading activity, and market quotes remained generally stable. The most-traded SS futures contract retreated after a rapid rise. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 220-420 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi remained flat and in Foshan remained stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes remained flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April." Downstream demand fundamentals recovered compared with the earlier period, with end-user purchases continuing at a rigid-demand pace, and overall trading volume was sufficient to hold quotes firm. However, affected by macro news disturbances and futures fluctuations, downstream end-user clients still held a wait-and-see sentiment with no willingness to stockpile, and trading fluctuated with changes in news. Futures...