[SMM Analysis] Off-season Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Fluctuate Limitedly, Steel Mill Profits Basically Stable This week, stainless steel finished product prices remained stable, while production costs edged up slightly but with limited gains, resulting in basically stable overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, this week’s profit margins stood at 2.01% when using current raw materials and 2.15% when using inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still retained certain smelting profits. On the nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices rose and strengthened this week. Shipment disruptions of Indonesian high-grade NPI, combined with month-end restocking purchases by some stainless steel mills and relatively optimistic market expectations for forward NPI prices, drove the price increase. Although mainstream stainless steel mills currently hold sufficient nickel pig iron raw material inventories and spot purchases remained weak, forward order transactions recovered significantly, pushing prices higher. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 4 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices remained stable this week, with limited impact from futures consolidation and a slight recovery in NPI. Compared to nickel pig iron, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more apparent, providing solid bottom support for prices; expectations of steel mill production resumptions in August also lent positive support. However, narrow profit margins at steel mills and weak end-use demand made cost pass-through difficult, significantly capping the upside room for prices. Overall, in the short term, stainless steel scrap will maintain a consolidating pattern supported by cost advantages and production resumption expectations, with limited overall upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area rose by 200 yuan/mt to 10,450 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials…

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Consolidate on a Strong Note, Stainless Steel Month-End Spot High Prices See Sluggish Transactions According to SMM on July 31, SS futures consolidated on a strong note overall. Driven by successive pullbacks in the US dollar index, nonferrous metals futures strengthened across the board, and SS rose in tandem. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,635 yuan/mt. On the spot market, SS futures shot up at the morning open and then gradually pulled back in consolidation. Although the morning strength in futures drove spot prices higher, high-priced transactions were not smooth. Some traders offered concessions under month-end shipment pressure, and market transactions were dominated by just-in-time procurement. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was quoted at 14,710 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 310-710 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi rose 100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan rose 25 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quote flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated metal price trends. Stainless steel futures were under pressure and consolidated on a subdued note. This week, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its meeting, but its overall tone was hawkish. Commodity valuations came under broad pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged by the spillover of macro headwinds, SS futures...

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 27 – July 31, 2026. A hawkish Fed hold, deepening off-season demand weakness, and the first inventory build in weeks drag the benchmark contract down RMB 135/mt in the week

Rising compliance costs, a verification bottleneck, and tightening EU import quotas combine to reshape the competitive landscape for Asian stainless steel suppliers in Europe from 2026 onward. The EU CBAM entered its definitive implementation phase on January 1, 2026 — transitioning from a reporting exercise into a mechanism with real trade cost implications.

Indonesia has allowed exports of nickel pig iron (NPI) and other processed mineral products to resume after shipments were delayed by uncertainty surrounding testing requirements for associated rare earth elements (REE/LTJ). The government clarified that existing regulations only prohibit exports of pure rare earth elements (HS 28053000) and do not explicitly restrict processed mineral products containing trace REE. Relevant ministries have been instructed to establish technical guidelines covering REE definitions, content thresholds, testing standards and transitional arrangements, while exporters may continue normal shipments in the interim. The decision eases near-term concerns over export disruptions for Indonesian NPI producers and supports the continuity of downstream nickel shipments. However, regulatory uncertainty is likely to persist until the government finalises detailed REE content thresholds and inspection procedures

Indonesia's Presidential Staff Office convened a coordination meeting in Jakarta on July 27 with government agencies, law enforcement and industry to resolve shipment bottlenecks caused by the absence of rules on how much rare-earth content is permissible in mineral exports. Industry sources say alumina and nickel products, chiefly nickel pig iron, have been delayed. Indonesia is a major minerals exporter but only a minor by-product producer of rare earths, and no threshold has been set for their proportion in shipments of other minerals, leaving customs treatment unclear. Presidential Chief of Staff Dudung Abdurachman said he had received reports from several companies about export disruptions. Constrained shipments tighten near-term availability and reinforce seller reluctance in NPI.

Tariffs, certification regimes and quotas, not demand, have redrawn Indonesia's 4.7 million-mt export map since 2021: China's share has halved, India has quadrupled, and Europe's door has narrowed to a slab-shaped hole.

According to SMM market sources, several vessels carrying Indonesian nickel pig iron (NPI) have recently experienced export clearance delays as cargoes undergo additional testing for strategic mineral elements. According to market sources, export verification for certain mineral products is now accompanied by testing for 17 rare earth elements (REEs), uranium (U), and thorium (Th), extending surveyor report processing times and delaying the clearance of some NPI shipments. The tighter inspections were introduced following a recent enforcement case involving PT Putraprima Mineral Mandiri (PMM), PT Sucofindo, and the Pangkalpinang Customs and Excise Office. While the stricter inspections may continue to lengthen export documentation procedures and temporarily affect NPI shipment schedules, there is currently no indication that Indonesia's NPI production or overall export supply has been affected.

[7.27 Morning Briefing] The central bank announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, the People's Bank of China conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1-year tenor via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged during the night session, but rebounded slightly by the morning close to 132,610 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Nickel inventories have continued destocking recently, supporting a rebound in nickel prices; meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict and the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz have once again raised concerns over sulfur supply disruptions, and nickel prices are holding up well in the short term.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 20–24, 2026. Middle East conflict escalation and tight Indonesian nickel ore supply keep the benchmark contract elevated near a two-week high, though it slips RMB 105/mt over the week of July 20–24 as social inventories tip back into a build.