The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices This week, Philippine nickel ore prices edged down. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotations were $64-67/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-74/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-81/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Weather side, weather conditions in the Philippines improved significantly this week WoW. Rainfall in major mining areas such as Surigao, Homonhon, and Tawi-Tawi trended lower, while Zambales and Palawan remained relatively dry. This shift indicated that major mining areas had gradually entered the mining season, releasing room for nickel ore supply. Demand side, despite elevated freight costs, several Chinese smelters had already started procurement. As of Friday, March 27, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.63 million mt, down 190,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 36,400 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, domestic NPI prices were basically flat this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,083.5 yuan per nickel unit. Smelters' acceptance of high-priced raw materials had peaked, which may prompt slight concessions in CIF prices, and nickel ore FOB and CIF prices are expected to be more likely to fall than rise in the short term. Indonesia Market: Delayed RKAB Approval Progress, Coupled With Expectations for Policy Transition, Is Expected to Further Lift the Price Center of Nickel Ore This week, prices of Indonesia's local nickel ore rose. Indonesia's nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the second half of March was set at $17,329/dmt, up 1.32% MoM. According to SMM's Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were quoted at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the domestic-trade port-arrival price for 1.6% grade was $67.6-74.6/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening of both premiums this month reflected the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $25-27/wmt. From supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 27, 2026, weather conditions across Indonesia's nickel mining areas were as follows: Morowali was expected to see cumulative rainfall of 0.065-0.08 this week, and strong thunderstorms would severely affect open-pit mining and ore transportation; Konawe had scattered showers, with rainfall of about 0.03-0.045 this week; Halmahera was the most stable, mainly cloudy with light rain. The market is currently facing a clear trend of declining grades. Although some NPI smelters had begun accepting nickel ore with grades of 1.45% and below, saprolite ore remained tight in March. At present, as of mid-March, ESDM had approved about 100 million mt of RKAB nickel ore quotas, and the remaining 160 million-170 million mt is expected to complete approval before month-end. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday from March 18 to 24, approval progress may be delayed, making it difficult for the tight supply situation to ease in the short term. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced resource uncertainty and had difficulty obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices remained strong. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. In addition, some transactions of low-grade humic soil ore also emerged in the market, with fixed prices relatively lower than those of high-grade ore. Limonite ore prices remained at low levels, mainly due to the tailings dam landslide accident at an MHP project in a certain industrial park, which kept related production lines running at low operating rates and hindered the rebound in demand. However, considering RKAB uncertainty, stockpiling demand from new projects, and growing demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to stay high later by following saprolite ore. Policy side, although rumors about the implementation and delayed release of the new tax regime continued, the specific implementation rules were still under internal review by relevant ministries. Although execution details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still awaited finalisation across ministries, current policy signals may indicate that the era of tax-free exports for Indonesia's nickel intermediate products is about to come to an end. Looking ahead, Indonesia's continued policy tightening is expected to open upside room for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain.

Philippines Market: Tight Supply and Surging Freight Rates Supported Ore Prices to Fluctuate at Highs Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes were $64-68/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-75/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-82/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade, up $6 WoW. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, although the Philippines was transitioning into the dry season, mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon continued to see heavy rainfall due to a low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao. Although Metro Manila and most parts of Luzon saw hot and sunny weather, the probability of rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and Caraga remained “very high.” Strong thunderstorms and scattered precipitation were expected to further intensify during March 9 to 13. Affected by the trough of the low-pressure area and the easterlies, persistent rainfall may continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in southern regions. Market supply remained scarce. Driven by both supply tightness caused by cuts in Indonesia’s RKAB quotas and expected supply gaps, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have surged recently. As of Friday, March 13, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 5.23 million mt, down 500,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 41,100 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China’s NPI prices rose this week, with spot transaction prices up about 1,089.9 yuan per nickel unit. As smelters had sufficient stockpiling earlier and showed limited acceptance of recently high-priced nickel ore, most were currently taking a wait-and-see stance. In terms of ocean freight rates, affected by a sharp jump in oil prices, nickel ore freight rates climbed, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Lianyungang reaching $15/mt or above. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs. Indonesia Market: Under Weather Disruptions and RKAB Policy Clarification, Tight Supply Continued Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose somewhat this week. Indonesia’s nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the first half of March was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2-74.2/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening in premiums this month reflected both the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up to $24-26/wmt. From the supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 13, Indonesia’s key nickel ore producing areas of Morowali, Konawe, and Halmahera were affected this week by strong thunderstorms and extremely high humidity of up to 94%. Weather continued to fluctuate, causing soil to become highly saturated and seriously hindering mine drying and transport operations. Morowali and Konawe will face a heavy rainfall system over the weekend with precipitation probability as high as 80%, while Halmahera, under high-humidity conditions, is expected to see rainfall intensity rebound again next Friday, with overall logistics capacity remaining constrained. At present, RKAB approvals for most small- and medium-sized mines remained pending. As existing quotas could no longer be used for next month’s production and sales, rising supply uncertainty was pushing nickel ore prices higher. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced uncertainty over nickel ore resources and found it difficult to secure high-grade saprolite ore, nickel ore prices remained firm. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. Overall, although the impact of the current MOMS system failure on mines had largely faded, overall nickel ore supply remained tight. Although spot supply of limonite ore was relatively sufficient, some related production lines were currently running at low load due to a tailings dam landslide accident at some MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park, leading to temporary weakness in overall demand. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over RKAB approval uncertainty, raw material stockpiling demand from newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain high. On the policy side, in response to recent market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly supplemented by an additional 25%-30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026, that RKAB supplements would be based on individual assessments of enterprise production capacity and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would start in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this was a routine regulatory process for resource optimization, rather than a passive countermeasure to the previous output cap policy. Looking ahead, affected by the relatively slow progress of RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices are expected to remain more likely to rise than fall in April.

Philippine Ore Prices Strengthened Sharply, With Multiple Supply-Side Risks Supporting the Cost Floor Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of pricing, Philippine nickel ore CIF China: NI 1.3% grade at $58-63/wmt, NI 1.4% grade at $65-69/wmt, and NI 1.5% grade at $72-76/wmt, up $4 from the previous week. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $62.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $69.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, the Philippines was in a transition to the dry season, but affected by a developing low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao, heavy rainfall continued in mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon Island. Although Metro Manila and most of Luzon had sunny and hot weather, the probability of weekly rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and the Caraga region was “high to extremely high,” and strong thunderstorms and scattered rainfall were expected to further intensify from March 9 to 13. Influenced by the LPA trough and the Dongfeng, this persistent rainy weather could continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in the southern regions mentioned above. Currently, available spot cargo in the market was limited; coupled with the tightness in nickel ore supply and a potential demand gap driven by expectations of RKAB quota cuts in Indonesia, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have risen markedly in recent periods. As of Friday, March 6, China’s port nickel ore inventory stood at 5.73 million mt, down 370,000 mt WoW. Current total port nickel ore inventory was equivalent to metal content of about 45,000 mt Ni. Demand side, domestic NPI prices rose this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,092.6 yuan/nickel unit. From the perspective of smelters’ procurement departments, given ample earlier stockpiling and limited acceptance of recently extremely high-priced ore, most were currently staying on the sidelines. In terms of ocean freight rates, ocean freight rates rose sharply recently due to the situation in Iran, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Tianjin Port at $11/mt. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Indonesia Market: Tight Supply and Demand Drove Premiums Higher; Authorities Clarified the RKAB Supplement Mechanism Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose significantly this month. For the first half of March, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM data on Indonesia nickel ore premiums, the average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $34, $38, and $38.5/dmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2–72.2/wmt. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflected the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota reductions; meanwhile, the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $24–26/wmt. Supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 6, Sulawesi and Halmahera were in a period of wild swings at the tail end of the rainy season, and intermittent heavy rainfall continued to hinder mine logistics. Morowali was currently overcast with extremely high humidity (94%); although rainfall remained light for now, a strong rainfall system was expected around March 13, with precipitation reaching 48 mm. Konawe likewise remained mostly cloudy with daily thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Halmahera was set to face a high-precipitation weekend, with the probability of thunderstorms as high as 65% on March 7–8. Although Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecast that the dry season would arrive earlier in April, the above areas were still unable to reach full-load mining and loading capacity due to highly saturated soil moisture and localized gusts. Under the dual pressure of tight tradable availability and uncertainty over RKAB quotas, some NPI smelters were forced to significantly step up procurement this month to secure raw material supply. While spot supply of limonite ore was relatively ample, a tailings dam landslide incident at certain MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park kept the relevant production lines operating at low load, resulting in a phase of overall demand weakness. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over uncertainty in RKAB approvals, raw material stockpiling needs for newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices were expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain elevated. Policy side, regarding recent widespread market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly increased by an additional 25%–30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026 that RKAB increases would be based on individual assessments of enterprises’ production capability and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would begin in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this move was a routine regulatory process to optimize resources, not a passive offset against the previous production cap policy.

On May 30, 2025, the nickel ore inventory at ports nationwide decreased by 40,000 wmt compared to May 23, reaching 5.94 million wmt. The total metal content was 46,680 mt (metal content). In the Philippines, significant precipitation across the country last week largely affected shipping conditions. This week, the volume of nickel ore arriving at ports decreased. Domestic NPI enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, resulting in a slight destocking at ports. 》Check SMM nickel quotes, data, and market analysis 》Click to view the SMM nickel industry chain database

[Morning Meeting Minutes on May 13] In terms of supply, although there was precipitation at major nickel ore loading points in the Philippines, with relatively heavy rainfall in areas such as Sta Cruz, Eastern Davao, and Tawi Tawi, the rainfall in the Surigao region decreased compared to previous weeks. Overall, following the reduction in rainfall in Surigao, the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is expected to increase. On the demand side, with the continuous decline in downstream NPI prices and the deepening of the inversion margin, the sentiment of domestic NPI smelters regarding raw material procurement has been dampened, and the support for nickel ore prices from the demand side continues to weaken. Looking ahead, the domestic transaction prices of nickel ore in the Philippines may be dragged down by the downstream sector and operate under pressure.

Philippine nickel ore prices are under pressure due to downstream constraints, with a divergence in prices between Indonesia's local ore for pyrometallurgy and ore used for hydrometallurgy

[5.12 Morning Meeting Minutes] Base metal prices generally rose on Monday as news emerged of substantive progress in trade negotiations between the US and China, alleviating concerns about a global recession to some extent. Another reason for the outstanding performance of nickel prices was the rumor that the Philippines planned to implement a ban on nickel ore exports starting next month, which could potentially lead to a shortage in nickel ore supply. However, SMM analysis suggests that the short-term impact on the nickel market may stem more from sentiment, and it may be difficult for this policy to have a fundamental impact on the nickel industry in the short term.

[Copper] On Friday, SHFE copper closed lower amid sideways movement, with accelerated position reduction in the delivery month. Today, spot copper prices fell to 78,205 yuan. The premium for Shanghai copper rapidly pulled back to 80 yuan, while the premium in Guangdong dropped to 155 yuan. In April, the highlight of domestic and overseas trade exports remained in ASEAN, where production maintained strong momentum during the reciprocal tariff exemption period. In the first four months, domestic imports of unwrought copper reached 1.742 million mt, down 3.9% year-on-year. Despite extremely low processing fees, copper concentrate imports remained stable, with a cumulative increase of 7.8% in the first four months. Consider shorting the SHFE 2507 contract or participating in calendar spreads between near-month contracts amid the rebound. [Aluminum and Alumina] Today, SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound, with spot aluminum in east China trading on par with futures, while spot aluminum in south China traded at a discount of 45 yuan. Yesterday, social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum billets in east China fell by 16,000 mt and 9,000 mt, respectively, compared to Monday, with total inventory remaining at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. Amid the shadow of trade wars, demand faces seasonal weakness and pressure from trade frictions. SHFE aluminum faces strong resistance in the 20,000-20,300 yuan range, corresponding to the upside gap. However, since the beginning of the year, aluminum market demand has exceeded expectations. Monitor inventory and spot feedback after price pullbacks, and maintain a cautiously bearish stance without excessive pessimism. Recently, the capacity under maintenance and production cuts in the alumina sector has continued to rise, leading to a temporary reduction in production and a decline in industry inventory. However, once profits recover, capacity will resume on a large scale, and new capacities in Shandong and Hebei will gradually produce finished products. The transaction price of Guinea bauxite at the cost side has fallen from $110 at the beginning of the year to $75, with the average cost of alumina dropping to around 2,900 yuan. This week, spot alumina transactions have slightly increased. In the short term, the rebound height of the futures market will be limited by the surplus outlook and cost collapse. Consider shorting on rallies when futures trade at a premium. [Zinc] The spot import window for zinc has opened, and with the gradual supplementation of overseas zinc elements, domestic zinc ingot supply is unlikely to be tight. Progress in Sino-US tariff negotiations has been sluggish, keeping demand under pressure. The domestic peak season has ended, and the probability of simultaneous weakness in domestic and overseas demand is high. As consumption trickles down, maintain short positions in SHFE zinc from previous highs. [Lead] Profits at secondary smelters are poor, leading to reduced production. Primary smelters in north and south China have enterprises planning maintenance, supporting lead prices. The tight supply of raw materials remains unchanged, with secondary lead operating at a loss and insufficient enthusiasm for raising prices to purchase. Scrap battery suppliers are unwilling to sell at low prices, keeping scrap battery prices stable. Downstream purchase willingness is mediocre. SMM 1# lead is trading at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to near-month futures, with a price difference between primary metal and scrap of 25 yuan/mt. The import window remains closed, and the tug-of-war between costs and consumption continues. Temporarily, view SHFE lead as fluctuating rangebound in the 16,300-17,000 yuan/mt range. [Nickel and Stainless Steel] SHFE nickel fluctuated rangebound, with mediocre market trading activity.On the spot market, the premium for Jinchuan nickel fell to 2,250 yuan, the premium for imported nickel was 100 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel traded at a discount of 50 yuan. Supply side, the shipment volume of nickel ore from the Philippines increased significantly compared to earlier periods, replenishing smelters' nickel ore inventory. NPI prices continued to decline, with domestic acceptance of high-priced nickel ore decreasing. The impact of Indonesia's new policy on costs may gradually be absorbed by the market. The quoted price for high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) stood at 962 yuan per mtu, having fallen by nearly 7% over the past month. In terms of inventory, nickel pig iron inventory increased by 4,200 mt to 28,400 mt, refined nickel inventory decreased by 560 mt to 44,000 mt, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 10,000 mt to 975,000 mt. SHFE nickel is at the tail end of another rebound, with bears gradually gaining strength. [Tin] The weighted average of SHFE tin continued to oscillate above 260,000 yuan and the 250-day moving average (MA250). Currently, there is a tight supply of tin concentrate raw materials. Domestic refined tin output fell MoM in April, with a particularly large YoY decline. However, both supply and demand in the tin market are weak, primarily supporting domestic spot prices. Today, SMM tin was quoted at 262,200 yuan, with a real-time premium of 770 yuan over the delivery month. It is expected that tin prices will mainly complete a right-shoulder oscillation pattern in May, with significant resistance above. Short positions can be held against 265,000 yuan. (Source: Guotou Junan Futures)

This week, the average price of SMM 8-12% high-nickel pig iron (NPI) stood at 967.5 yuan per nickel unit (including tax, ex-factory), marking a decrease of 7.2 yuan per nickel unit compared to last week's average. Although the price of high-nickel pig iron continues to trend downward, the rate of decline has slowed compared to the previous week.

Driven by cost support and the recovery of macro sentiment, nickel prices stabilized and rebounded this week, although the supply-demand pattern remained unchanged. Nickel prices saw a strong rebound this week, with the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel at 126,215 yuan/mt, up 3.6% WoW.