According to the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, global refined nickel production is expected to increase modestly in 2026 and 2027 as new processing capacity comes online in Indonesia. However, the report warned that tighter upstream ore availability is likely to constrain capacity utilization. This suggests future growth in Indonesia’s nickel supply may depend increasingly on ore availability rather than nominal processing capacity alone.

According to the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, nickel prices are projected to rise 12% year on year in 2026 and a further 3% in 2027, as global consumption growth is expected to outpace supply expansion. The report said that although new nickel processing capacity will continue to come online in Indonesia, tighter upstream ore availability is likely to constrain utilization rates and keep the market tight. It also noted that further disruptions to sulfur exports from Middle East producers could become an additional upside risk for nickel prices.

Vale reported first-quarter net revenue of $9.26 billion, up 14% year on year, though slightly below analysts’ forecast of $9.37 billion. The company said higher sales volumes across its key products, including iron ore, copper, and nickel, were among the main drivers of revenue growth. The figures suggest a clear recovery in Vale’s core business revenue as commodity prices improved.

Vale’s nickel sales rose 15.2% year on year in the first quarter, while output reached its highest first-quarter level since 2020. The company said both copper and nickel production posted multi-year highs for the period, indicating a solid start to 2026 for its base metals business. The result points to improving nickel supply performance at Vale and stronger support for overall quarterly sales growth.

[SMM Nickel Brief] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 26.9 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,120 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 3.14 $/nickel unit WoW to 143.2 $/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market first declined and then rebounded this week. Sentiment was weak at the beginning of the week, but as Indonesian policies tightened and nickel prices rose, bullish expectations strengthened and the price center gradually shifted upward.

According to Nickel Industries’ Q1 2026 conference call, the company completed a new $450 million unsecured refinancing on April 28 to replace its existing $398 million bank loans. The new package includes a $350 million term loan and a $100 million revolving facility, with final maturity extended to June 30, 2030. Management said the refinancing improves cash flow flexibility and raises the net debt-to-EBITDA covenant ceiling from 2.5x to 3.5x, giving the company more financial room as ENC ramps up and mining operations expand.

According to Nickel Industries’ Q1 2026 conference call, Indonesia’s revised HPM pricing regime, announced on April 15, has raised benchmark pricing for limonite ore. The company said, however, that HPAL producers in Indonesia have not yet adopted the new limonite pricing in actual purchases, meaning the additional burden is still largely being absorbed by miners. Management also noted that the new HPM has had limited impact on saprolite pricing, as market prices were already above the previous benchmark.

According to Nickel Industries’ Q1 2026 conference call, the company said average sulfur prices were around $570/t in the March quarter, creating some cost pressure for HPAL operations. However, it added that sulfur stockpiles remain healthy, with ENC inventory expected to last until the end of September 2026. The company also said these stockpiles were secured at an average price of about $450/t, well below the current spot range of $900-$1,000/t, suggesting near-term sulfur supply remains manageable.

According to Nickel Industries’ Q1 2026 conference call, the company’s average NPI selling price rose to $13,201/nickel ton in the March quarter, up 19% from $11,100/nickel ton in the December quarter. Over the same period, costs increased by only about 4%, allowing margins to expand significantly. The company said EBITDA from its RKEF business climbed from $35 million in the previous quarter to $85.8 million in Q1, highlighting a strong recovery in Indonesian NPI profitability as nickel prices improved.

[SMM Nickel Flash] April 29 — According to SMM, as invoicing controls continued to deepen, the market expected medium and long-term steel scrap procurement to remain restricted, and downstream steel mills saw renewed demand for NPI. Combined with persistently rising costs on the nickel ore raw material side, steel mills showed strong willingness to restock. The market had concluded tens of thousands of mt Ni in NPI transactions, with nickel content above 11%, at prices of 1,130-1,150 yuan/nickel unit, with delivery covering May-July. Bullish sentiment was strong in the market.