[SMM Nickel News] June 15 update: Floor trading still mainly adopts the futures average price plus premium model, and spot cargo liquidity is tightening. Overall, with futures stabilizing and market sentiment recovering, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm is strengthening, but downstream procurement pace is cautious, and landing of high-priced supply still faces resistance. In the short term, the market may continue the trend of firm offers and mild trading game.

From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Additionally, SMM has also meticulously arranged two rounds of panel discussions: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Conference Background In recent years, global nickel and cobalt raw material supply has frequently encountered various disruptions: Indonesia significantly lowered its nickel ore mining quota to 260–270 million mt, tightening nickel resource release at the source; the DRC continuously reduced cobalt ore export quotas, leading to a marked contraction in tradable cobalt raw materials worldwide. Multiple supply variables continued to roil nickel and cobalt commodity futures. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not only the core hub of the global nickel industry chain but also a key production area for global new cobalt supply at this stage. Its industrial control policies, commissioning pace of capacity, and industry chain layout changes directly shape the evolution of the global nickel-cobalt supply-demand pattern. Currently, the global nickel and cobalt industry is at a critical development stage featuring supply-demand restructuring, policy innovation, and value reassessment. To accurately forecast the nickel and cobalt market trends in 2026, deeply analyze the latest industrial control details in Indonesia, and help upstream and downstream players across the industry chain break down collaboration barriers, the Nickel and Cobalt Forum was launched. The forum brought together global mines, smelters, trading firms, downstream end-users, and investment and financing institutions to conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as market supply and demand trends, policies and regulations, production technology iteration, and cross-border industrial cooperation, jointly exploring new growth drivers for high-quality industry development. Click to view the conference photo gallery June 4: Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Mining Regulatory Outlook: RKAB Quota Planning and Indonesia's Next-Phase Downstream Mineral Expansion Path Guest Speaker: Totoh Abdul Fatah, Secretary General of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Totoh Abdul Fatah noted that RKAB is the key policy instrument for Indonesia to regulate mineral output, coordinate the orderly rollout of industries, and align with the nation's downstream industrialization priorities. Indonesia is endowed with exceptional mineral and coal resources, with significant reserves and capacity in several key strategic commodities including nickel, cobalt, copper, tin, bauxite, gold and silver, and iron ore. Leveraging these unique resource advantages, Indonesia holds a critical strategic position in the global mineral supply chain, and its value is especially prominent in the energy transition wave, providing strong support for the development of power batteries, renewable energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing. The next phase of downstream mineral development is not about curbing growth, but about improving development quality, clarifying development direction, strengthening regulatory management, and reinforcing the sustainability of growth. Future smelter layout must match ore supply capability, be aligned with resource conservation, and coordinate multiple factors including energy infrastructure readiness, environmental protection access standards, and domestic industry value addition. In light of these considerations, the Indonesian government is promoting an industrial logic shift from pure capacity expansion to strategic optimization of resource allocation, ensuring that mineral resources are precisely directed to industry segments that can maximize national economic benefits. Indonesia's downstream mineral industrialization has made concrete progress. Currently, 14 smelters are in operation, primarily producing products such as nickel oxide, pig iron, and copper cathode. Covering both existing operating plants and new projects under construction, the entire industry chain has attracted a total realized investment of $7.849 billion. Breakdown: nickel sector investment of $2.535 billion, aluminum sector $2.181 billion, iron ore projects $47 million, and copper sector $3.084 billion. This is continuously improving the supporting system of the domestic mineral industry chain. This progress demonstrates that Indonesia's downstream mineral policy has achieved tangible results. However, challenges remain for the industry: not only must new smelting projects be completed and commissioned on schedule, but they also require stable supporting supply to achieve efficient operations, green and low-carbon production, and deep integration into the domestic industry chain value system. Indonesia's development direction is very clear: the downstream transformation of minerals will continue to advance, and during the implementation process, policy enforcement constraints and top-level strategic guidance will be further strengthened. The RKAB management system and ore source allocation control rules are key to building a robust and more resilient industrial ecosystem. Future smelting project planning needs to coordinate four key dimensions: sustainable resource development, supply-demand market equilibrium, ESG compliance implementation, and enhancement of national value added. Indonesia has always been open to quality investment, especially high-quality investment, relying on foreign capital to achieve technology transfer and localization, expand local employment, and support long-term economic growth. In other words, Indonesia's industrial development not only pursues growth, but is committed to achieving high-quality growth that is compliant, sustainable, and globally competitive. Keynote Speech: Nickel at a Crossroads：A Five-Year Outlook on Global Nickel — Navigating Policy, Supply, and Demand Shifts Speaker: Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market Feng projects that the global primary nickel market will show a supply deficit in 2026, continue the oversupply trend in 2027, and shift to a tight balance in 2029. Regarding refined nickel prices, on the cost side, global sulfur supply and demand will face a persistent deficit in the next 2–3 years. In the case of short-term strait blockades, sulfur prices remain high, strengthening the cost support for the sulfur-MHP-refined nickel chain. From a macro perspective, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered wild swings in energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. In the short term, global commodity prices will face considerable fluctuations. In the long term, global geopolitical uncertainty may become the new normal in the future, increasing the volatility of refined nickel prices. Nickel Ore Upstream Repricing: Indonesia's Benchmark Price Raise, Quota Tightening, and Increased Dependence on the Philippines Indonesia Nickel Ore RKAB Quotas: Tight Balance Emerges as the 2026 Main Theme According to SMM analysis, following the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) official denial of market rumors that RKAB production quotas would be raised across the board by 25%–30%, the government will handle supplementary quotas under strict case-by-case reviews starting from H2 2026, evaluating each miner's compliance, capacity, and resource reserves. At its core, this constitutes a routine and orderly optimisation of the existing 260–270 million wmt quota cap, paving the way for a more stable and sustainable market environment. Supply RKAB Approval Progress: As of April, Indonesia's cumulative approved RKAB quotas stand at 240 million wmt. SMM expects that, under expectations of continued nickel ore supply tightening, supplementary quotas around mid-year 2026 will be approximately 15%. Philippine Import Driver: SMM expects that this year, Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines will rise from approximately 15 million in 2025 to 22 million. Tightness in the domestic trade nickel ore supply will accelerate supplementation through imports from the Philippines. Demand Affected by the tight sulfur supply, MHP output has fallen short of earlier expectations. As a result, Indonesia's nickel ore demand for full-year 2026 is expected to be reduced to 303 million wmt. In 2026, actual nickel ore production will remain constrained by factors such as the rainy season and the pace of RKAB quota approvals, leaving overall output below theoretical supply levels. Panel Discussion: Upstream Opportunities & Challenges for Nickel Mine Owners Moderator: Enzo Brooklyn, Senior Nickel Analyst, SMM Panelists: Luca Maiotti, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Aldo Namora, President Director, PT Ceria Metalindo Prima Jerome Baudelet, CEO, Eramet Indonesia Patrick Lim, Country Head, HyperStrong Indonesia Keynote Speech: Achieving Energy Efficiency and Operational Success: The MMD Approach at Mah Moe Speaker: Fuad Budidarma Pratama, General Manager, MMD Mining Machinery Indonesia Keynote Speech: Global Nickel Market Outlook Speaker: Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) Ricardo Ferreira noted that global primary nickel production is estimated to have declined by approximately 4% YoY, measured across the full chain from raw ore mining to finished primary nickel products. Most of this decrease originated from Indonesia, while expectations also pointed to a pullback in Chinese nickel output. According to the monthly bulletin released earlier, global primary nickel already edged down by about 1% in Q1, with Indonesia down roughly 3% and China down about 1%. Keynote Speech: New Refining Technologies for Laterite Nickel and Spent Batteries Speaker: Dr. Chunwei Liu, Managing Director of Resource Extraction, Botree Recycling Technologies Distribution of Laterite Nickel Ore Resources Laterite nickel ore accounts for 55% of global nickel resources and is the main source of nickel for industrial production worldwide. With the continuous development and promotion of high-nickel batteries, market demand for nickel—and consequently for laterite nickel ore processing—has grown significantly. Geographic concentration: Mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30° north and south of the equator. Three core regions: Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines (major laterite nickel ore producing areas). Americas: Cuba, Brazil. Oceania: Australia, New Caledonia. Panel Discussion: Nickel Price Volatility, Product Spreads, and Policy Shifts: What Will Define the Market in the next 5 years? Moderator: Slupek Kamila, Secretary-General, INSG Panelists: Jim Lennon, Analyst, Macquarie Septian Hario Seto, Member, National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director, Norilsk Nickel Edric Koh, Head of Corporate Sales, Asia, London Metal Exchange Mark Selby, CEO & Director, Canada Nickel Company Keynote Speech: Korean Battery Supply Chain Strategy and Indonesia's Role Speaker: James (IKHWAN) Choi, Country Manager, Korea Office, SMM Korea Office Keynote Speech: Retreat or Evolve? The Counter-Attack of High-Nickel Batteries under the LFP Siege: Solid State, 4680, and the "Range Anxiety" Premium Speaker: Jared Zhu, Head of Consulting, Renewable Energy & Non-ferrous Metals, Shanghai Metals Market Jared noted that LFP batteries have steadily increased their market share in power battery and energy storage markets in recent years. With the rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), ternary batteries, leveraging their performance advantages, are more competitive than LFP batteries. Solid-state batteries are regarded by the industry as a must-win field for future competition, but it is worth noting that this new technology, capable of rewriting industry rules, still has a long development cycle before full commercialization. Positioning in the LFP Era LFP Accelerates Replacement of Ni-Co-Mn in Energy Storage and EVs, Leading in Scale and Growth SMM forecasts the global share of EV power battery types from 2026 to 2027, expecting LFP batteries to account for around 68% in 2026, with that ratio rising to about 70% in 2027. For ESS battery types, from 2022 to 2025, the share of LFP batteries in global ESS batteries continued to rise, and in 2026, it is expected to increase to around 99%. Keynote Speech: QMAG - Market Leader of Calcined Magnesia for Nickel/Cobalt MHP Production Speaker: Christoph Beyer, Managing Director of Queensland Magnesia (QMAG) Dr. Keynote Speech: Cobalt in Focus: Powering the Next Chapter of Critical Minerals Speaker: Dinah McLeod, Director General, Cobalt Institute June 5: Nickel and Cobalt Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Balancing Risk and Reward: Investing in Indonesia's Nickel and Cobalt Value Chain Speaker: Izzie Huo, Senior Research Fellow, Shanghai Metals Market Panel Discussion: Too Much Nickel? Balancing Oversupply Risks with Long-Term Investment in Indonesia Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Ali Safdar, Managing Director & Partner, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman, Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) Ditya Maharhani Harninda, Senior Vice President Corporate Banking 2, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (Persero) Keynote Speech: Valve Solutions for Severe Service in HPAL Speaker: Changsong Deng, President of International Business Division, ANTIWEAR Keynote Speech: Breaking the Import Dependency: Economics and Feasibility of Pyrite-based Acid Production for Indonesia's HPAL Supply Chain Speaker: Bede Beresford Evans, President Director, PT Sumbawa Timur Mining Keynote Speech: Key Technology and Economic Analysis of AI Power Microgrid Solutions in Mining Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, Ai Power (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Value of Analytical Solutions in Mining Processes Speaker: Toh Tiong Yen, Sales Manager, Malvern Panalytical Keynote Speech: New Caledonia's Nickel Landscape Speaker: Gabriel Bensimon, Special Advisor to the President of the Government on Nickel and Mining-Related Matters, The Government of New Caledonia Keynote Speech: Global Flow of Nickel from Mining to End-Use Speaker: Dr. Steukers Veronique, President, Nickel Institute Primary nickel production is now dominated by Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia produced around 50% of the world's primary nickel, compared to just 6% a decade earlier. Primary nickel production in the rest of the world declined. In 2025, primary nickel production in the rest of the world, excluding Indonesia and China, accounted for just over 20% of the global total, down from 65% a decade earlier. Indonesia and China are the core driving forces shaping the global nickel supply chain landscape. From the perspective of nickel product circulation structure, NPI, backed by Indonesia's capacity advantage, firmly dominates the circulation mainstream; in terms of global nickel raw material supply by grade, Class 2 nickel accounts for approximately 58%, Class 1 nickel for just under 30%, and nickel chemical products for the remaining around 13%. Panel Discussion: Meet the Future of ESG: Standard, Challenges and Opportunities in Mining and Processing Moderator: Katz Benjamin, Policy Analyst, OECD Panelists: Dr. Chris Schlekat, Executive Director of NIPERA, Nickel Institute Ning Wang, Manager, Sustainable Development Department, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Vinícius Mendes Ferreira, Executive Advisor for Nickel Downstreaming, PT Vale Indonesia Fan Li, Sustainability and ESG Services Manager, dss+ Tom Fairlie, Senior Sustainability Manager, Cobalt Institute

Indonesia's RKEF smelter capacity utilisation has fallen to 76% from 84% in 2025 after the energy ministry cut the 2026 nickel ore quota to 260–270 million tonnes — below last year's 320 million tonnes output and FINI's demand estimate of 340–350 million tonnes. FINI chairman Arif Perdana Kusuma said several lines in South and Central Sulawesi are running below 50% capacity; smelters are holding minimal output rather than cold-shutting furnaces, which would take months to restart. A member of Indonesia's National Economic Council said the quota was needed to prevent a record surplus, and pointed to $18,000–$20,000/t as the government's target price corridor — cautioning that a significant overshoot above $20,000 would harm nickel end-users.

Leading Chinese nickel producers are scouting investment opportunities outside Indonesia as tightening policy conditions test the economics of their Indonesian operations. One major stainless steel group is considering a large-scale industrial park in Madagascar covering nickel and other minerals, inspired by its Indonesian model, while a major HPAL operator is in talks to acquire a stake in an undeveloped nickel sulphide project in Tanzania and has made an offer for a stake in an idled nickel operation in New Caledonia. If completed, these would be the first nickel investments outside Indonesia for both groups. Madagascar lifted a 16-year moratorium on new mining permits in January, though it is currently under a transitional military government following a coup last year.

This week, nickel prices exhibited an accelerating decline, with macro bearish factors serving as the core driver for the pullback in prices. At the start of the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract held above 144,000 yuan/mt in volatile trading. However, as US economic data continued to beat expectations, market expectations for a US Fed rate hike this year heated up, the US dollar index rebounded, and the nonferrous metals sector generally came under pressure. During the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract successively broke through several round number levels, including 142,000, 140,000, and 139,000 yuan/mt, hitting a low of approximately 137,700 yuan/mt. Its weekly cumulative decline exceeded 3%, while LME nickel simultaneously fell below the $18,500/mt mark. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 142,090 yuan/mt, down 5,250 yuan/mt WoW. The Jinchuan nickel premium rebounded slightly to 800 yuan/mt this week, while the premium range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel remained at -600 to 300 yuan/mt. On the macro front, US economic data continued to beat expectations, and rate hike bets intensified. The US manufacturing PMI for May came in at 54, up 1.3% from April. On the geopolitical front, Trump stated he has no intention of restarting a full-scale war with Iran. Expectations for US-Iran negotiations have warmed up, and the market is betting on the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which could ease the sulfur transportation bottleneck. However, the US-Iran talks still face the risk of further twists and turns. On the inventory front, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone this week stood at approximately 1,700 mt, flat WoW. China’s social inventory was around 120,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,500 mt WoW. Currently, the nickel market is locked in a tug-of-war between macro headwinds and cost support. In the short term, it is expected to remain in the doldrums. However, with policy and cost floors in place, downside room for a further sharp decline is limited. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade mainly within the range of 137,000–145,000 yuan/mt next week.

PT Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL), known as Harita Nickel, has begun reporting ferronickel exports through PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) as required under the Phase 1 iron alloy single-window export policy. CEO Roy Arman Arfandy said the government has provided a reporting format and application system, with implementation starting June 2. He noted that export operations are proceeding normally with no issues so far, though shipments are not daily and depend on vessel schedules. Harita's ferronickel export capacity is approximately twice that of its HPAL hydrometallurgy nickel output, though the company has not disclosed absolute figures.

At the 2026 SMM Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo, SMM Vice President Shirley Wang outlined the structural shift in global nickel production costs: prior to 2015, high-grade primary nickel ore dominated as the lowest-cost feedstock; from 2016 to 2026, low-grade ore and laterite mining steadily gained share; today, laterite nickel ore has become the most cost-competitive feedstock. Looking ahead, Shirley Wang cautioned that as laterite ore grades continue to decline, nickel production from sulphide ore — historically more expensive but grade-stable — may see a structural revival.

[SMM Nickel Flash] June 3 — Supply exhibited significant structural tightness characteristics. Medium-to-high-grade resources above 11% saw tight circulation and high market recognition, while high-grade resources above 12% demonstrated even more pronounced scarcity, with strong premium performance. The tiered premium trend continued to intensify, and the overall price center edged up slowly and modestly.

The Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) has formally requested government clarification on the scope of ferro alloy products that will be required to export through PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), Indonesia's newly established single-window export body. FINI Chairman Arif Perdana Kusumah said the industry is still awaiting an official commodity list, with the key open question being whether the mandatory DSI routing applies only to ferronickel (FeNi) or also to nickel pig iron (NPI). Ferronickel, a nickel-iron alloy with typical nickel content of 20-40%, is a key feedstock for stainless steel. The uncertainty adds to operational planning challenges for NPI producers as the DSI framework takes shape.

PT Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL), known as Harita Nickel, reported Q1 2026 revenue of Rp6.81 trillion (~$418 million) and full-year 2025 revenue of Rp29.63 trillion (~$1.82 billion), with all production lines — nickel ore mining, RKEF pyrometallurgy, and HPAL hydrometallurgy producing MHP and nickel sulphate — running on target. The company said it is maintaining a measured operational approach across its integrated value chain amid a challenging global nickel market. On ESG, Harita reported Q1 2026 emissions avoidance of 977,278 tCO2e, up 37% year-on-year, supported by waste heat recovery, biosolar use, and coal gasification technology. The company is also advancing IRMA corrective actions and preparing for RMAP supply chain due diligence audit.