This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs both strengthened, with stainless steel mill smelting profits further expanding. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, calculated based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 3.15% this week; if calculated based on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 5.41%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, sulfur supply tightened, driving SHFE nickel prices up significantly; combined with news related to Indonesian nickel ore, bullish expectations for high-grade NPI prices further strengthened. Recently, stainless steel mills have returned to profitability, increasing their acceptance of high-priced raw materials and enhancing procurement enthusiasm, pushing high-grade NPI prices up sharply within the week. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 38 yuan per nickel unit to 1,135 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged, driven by SHFE nickel's spike triggered by geopolitical conflicts; this transmitted to the spot market, with stainless steel and alternative raw material high-grade NPI rising in tandem, boosting bullish sentiment. The rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further highlighted the cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap. Despite ongoing tax invoice issues, steel mills' preference for using scrap remained unchanged; combined with profit recovery and production schedules staying high, procurement demand was robust, providing strong price support. The overall pattern was "futures leading, raw materials moving in tandem, demand supporting," with tax invoice issues not significantly constraining the uptrend. Stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the near term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,600 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained generally stable this week. During the week, Tsingshan announced its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, further boosting ferrochrome market confidence; additionally, with stainless steel prices continuing to rise recently and production schedule expectations staying high, ferrochrome demand was unlikely to pull back significantly. However, ferrochrome production schedules remained at high levels, recent retail market transactions were sluggish, and market entities mostly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, keeping prices relatively stable. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Daily Comment: Supply and Demand Resonate on Both Sides, NPI Prices Continue to Rise] On April 30, SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.58, up 0.04 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 2.6, flat MoM.

[SMM Nickel Flash] April 29, supply side, upstream sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling remained strong, with mainstream quotations concentrated at 1,120-1,150 yuan/nickel unit. Bullish expectations for the market strengthened, and post-holiday quotations are expected to continue rising. Meanwhile, costs of nickel ore raw materials in Indonesia continued to rise, further supporting upstream willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, affected by the deepening of invoice management controls, the market expected medium and long-term steel scrap procurement to remain restricted. Downstream steel mills' demand for NPI rose again, coupled with strong restocking willingness among steel mills underpinned by cost support.

[SMM Daily Comment: Downstream Transaction Volume Increase Drove Prices Up, Bullish Sentiment Strengthened] April 29 — The SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.54, up 0.24 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 2.6, up 0.71 MoM.

[SMM Nickel Flash] April 29 — According to SMM, as invoicing controls continued to deepen, the market expected medium and long-term steel scrap procurement to remain restricted, and downstream steel mills saw renewed demand for NPI. Combined with persistently rising costs on the nickel ore raw material side, steel mills showed strong willingness to restock. The market had concluded tens of thousands of mt Ni in NPI transactions, with nickel content above 11%, at prices of 1,130-1,150 yuan/nickel unit, with delivery covering May-July. Bullish sentiment was strong in the market.

In Q1 2026, ANTAM produced 3.88 million wmt of nickel ore and sold 3.40 million wmt exclusively to the domestic market, maintaining steady operations using previous RKAB quotas before securing full approval in March. Concurrently, impacted by these raw material quota constraints and scheduled maintenance, the company's ferronickel segment produced 3,976 tons of nickel in ferronickel (TNi) and sold 2,803 TNi, successfully sustaining production continuity and its export positioning.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Hit New Stage High Again, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Cooled Before Labour Day Holiday SMM, April 28: SS futures showed a strong upward momentum. Driven by the continued strength of SHFE nickel, SS futures rose further, breaking through the high since 2023 again, once reaching 15,670 yuan/mt. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,630 yuan/mt. Spot market, as SS futures successively broke stage highs, spot stainless steel prices stayed high. Although the Labour Day holiday was approaching, end-user downstream mostly held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and overall transactions were relatively sluggish. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,420 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 0 to 200 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils fell by 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 100 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi held stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held stable. Currently, the stainless steel market saw spot prices hold up well, driven by the surge in futures, but end-user wait-and-see sentiment persisted. Actual transactions remained generally weak and were significantly influenced by futures changes, showing phased concentrated transaction patterns, with overall demand not fully matching the price gains. Futures, this week...

According to SMM, driven by changes in upstream raw material policies and strong cost support, mainstream Indonesian stainless steel mills have significantly raised their prices by $55/mt today. The core reason for this major price adjustment is the recent announcement by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) to increase the benchmark price of nickel ore (HPM) and implement a completely new pricing formula. The execution of this new pricing mechanism has directly driven up procurement costs for nickel smelting. Under immense cost pressure, mainstream stainless steel mills have strongly pushed up their offers.

Based on SMM research, the week of April 20 to April 24, 2026, Indonesian stainless steel export prices followed a stable then surging trend. While quotations remained steady early in the week due to prevailing market caution, they collectively rose by USD30/mt by Friday (April 24). This increase was driven by rising nickel ore prices, which pushed NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) production costs higher, lifting FOB Indonesia 300-series prices. Notably, driven by rising global molybdenum costs, 316-series prices are now approaching the USD4,000/mt threshold. Image 1: Review of FOB Indonesia 304 Stainless Steel Prices in April Image 2: Review of FOB Indonesia 316 Stainless Steel Prices in April The upward momentum in overseas stainless steel prices stems from structural tightening at the raw material end. The official implementation of Indonesia’s new Nickel Ore Pricing Formula (HPM), coupled with the announced suspension of operations for maintenance at a major Indonesian nickel mine starting in May, has caused an abrupt tightening of ore supply. This supply crunch is propagating down the value chain, supporting firm NPI quotations and directly inflating the immediate steelmaking costs for mills. On the demand side, the Southeast Asian downstream market is currently in an inventory depletion phase. Upstream mills maintain a strong stance on pricing, pushing for further hikes toward the end of the week. Conversely, downstream buyers remain resistant to these high price levels, restricting procurement to hand-to-mouth replenishment. According to SMM research, local DDP 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices in Malaysia are currently ranging between RM 9.50 and RM 10.50/kg . The European market has witnessed a slight trend of defensive restocking. The core driver is the impending expiry of the current EU TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) on June 30 . Starting July 1 , the updated policy is expected to see quotas slashed by nearly half and potential tax rates doubled. To hedge against high tariff risks in the second half of the year, European traders have recently concentrated purchases on cargoes arriving before the end of June, triggering a counter-seasonal inventory buildup. SMM reports that local DDP 304 CRC prices in Europe are hovering between €2,700 and €2,900/mt . Market activity in Taiwan, China remains relatively subdued, with buyers prioritizing the consumption of existing stocks and showing little appetite for restocking. Although upstream mills continue to raise April ex-factory prices, pushing local 304 CRC prices to a range of NT$ 69,300 to NT$ 74,000/mt, the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers has overshadowed replenishment needs now that prices have hit historical highs, significantly limiting market liquidity. Overall transaction dynamics this week reflect a stark imbalance between the upstream and downstream sectors. Upstream mills, driven by cost pressures, remain firm in their pricing strategies, while downstream buyers maintain a cautious stance, sticking to essential-only purchasing. Given that May list prices have been released and mills remain resolute in their pricing, coupled with the pre-June 30 policy-driven hedging demand in Europe, overseas prices are expected to remain elevated in the short term. SMM anticipates that overseas stainless steel quotations will continue to fluctuate within a high-side range.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Firm Raw Material Costs Combined with Low Inventory, Stainless Steel Prices Fluctuate at Highs SMM, April 24: SS futures surged higher. Driven by news related to Indonesian nickel ore, SHFE nickel and SS futures rallied sharply. SS broke through its highs since 2023 again, briefly touching 15,230 yuan/mt. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,160 yuan/mt. Spot market side, stainless steel spot prices rose in tandem, driven by the strengthening of SS futures. Although prices rose in the short term, downstream end-users had not fully accepted them due to a wait-and-see sentiment. However, low-priced cargoes were already hard to find in the market. In addition, stainless steel social inventory continued to decline, and traders faced relatively low inventory pressure. The most-traded SS contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,165 yuan/mt, up 320 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of -145-55 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi rose by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. Currently, the stainless steel market saw spot prices hold up well, driven by the surge in SS futures. However, downstream end-users' wait-and-see sentiment persisted, with actual transaction volumes remaining generally weak and influenced by futures changes...