Since Israel launched attacks on Iran late last week, both WTI crude oil, the US benchmark, and Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, have experienced significant volatility. One indicator might help illustrate just how serious investors' concerns are about the potential scope of this conflict... Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader and Managing Director at CIBC Private Wealth, said that the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index hit its highest closing level in over three years on Tuesday, indicating that "the market is pricing in multiple tail risks." "This is a clear signal that traders are increasingly concerned about how the situation might evolve—not just short-term supply disruptions, but broader regional instability," Babin noted. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the index surged by 26% on Tuesday, closing at $71.56, its highest closing level since March 2022. Described as an estimate of the 30-day expected volatility of crude oil priced by the United States Oil Fund (USO), the index has "doubled" in the past five trading days, rising by 104%. It's worth noting that the index has also surged after key geopolitical events in the past, but none have been as dramatic as this one. For example, after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, the index rose by 11.7% the following Monday, closing at $39.85, its highest closing level since June of that year. On the day after Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, the index rose by 18%, closing at $35.45. Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at GAIN Capital, said that the situation between Israel and Iran this time is "quite different." "US President Trump stated in a social media post that 'we now have complete control of Iranian airspace,' indicating that the US is engaging in the conflict," he said. According to multiple media reports, US President Trump is considering a range of options, including joining Israel in air strikes against Iran. He also posted on social media on Tuesday demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender." This has raised questions about whether the US might take action to deepen its involvement in the conflict. Market data shows that the price of the most-traded July WTI crude oil futures contract in the US rose by $3.07, or 4.3%, on Tuesday, closing at $74.84 per barrel, its highest closing level for the most-traded contract since January this year. The most-traded August Brent crude oil futures contract, the global benchmark, also rose by $3.22, or 4.4%, closing at $76.45 per barrel, its highest closing level since February. Matt Polyak, managing partner at Hummingbird Capital, said that a key factor driving market volatility is the potential impact on global supply from Iran's export of approximately 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), around 20 million barrels of crude oil and condensate were transported through the Strait of Hormuz to global markets each day in 2024, accounting for roughly one-third of global oil trade. From the perspective of market positioning, Polyak of Hummingbird noted that CFTC data showed that the net managed money position in crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was in line with the average over the past three years but below the five-year average, suggesting there is still room for long positions to increase. Meanwhile, Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, pointed out that the open interest in WTI contracts is in "free fall, so short positions are undoubtedly being covered." Short positions refer to bets on falling oil prices, and covering refers to investors buying back the oil they previously sold short. For example, FactSet data showed that the open interest in the most-traded July WTI crude oil futures contract was around 81,660 lots in Tuesday's trading, down from 144,493 lots on Friday. Regarding how high oil prices could rise from current levels, CIBC's Babin said that if the situation is limited to Iran-Israel tensions, "some of the gains may already be priced in by the market—especially since the spare capacity of Saudi Arabia and the UAE provides some cushion." However, she stated, "if there are signs that the situation is escalating into a full-blown regional conflict with direct strikes on infrastructure, then there is still significant upside risk for oil prices."

Precious metal traders at top-tier banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, have just achieved their best performance in five years in the first quarter, partly due to arbitrage opportunities that triggered a significant influx of gold bars into the US. According to data compiled by Crisil Coalition Greenwich, 12 major banks in the industry collectively generated $500 million in revenue from precious metals businesses in Q1 2025, the second-highest figure in a decade. The market intelligence firm stated that this figure is roughly double the average quarterly earnings over the past decade. Part of this windfall came from the high premium on gold in the US market during Q1, as concerns about potential US tariffs on precious metals led traders to rush large quantities of gold and silver into the US in advance. As previously reported by Caixin, in Q1, the prices of gold and silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) surged to levels significantly higher than those of London gold, the international benchmark. This meant that traders could purchase gold bars in trading centers such as London, Switzerland, or Hong Kong, China, and then ship them to the US to profit before tariffs took effect. This even led to weeks-long queues for gold bar withdrawals from the Bank of England's vaults. Officials overseeing the London gold market received anxious calls from many bankers and traders, urging for streamlined processes. A similar situation occurred in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic grounded commercial flights, creating sustained arbitrage opportunities for banks seeking ways to transport gold bars to New York. According to exchange data, Morgan Stanley delivered more gold than any other bank when settling its proprietary Comex positions, delivering a total of 67 mt of gold. At current market prices, this batch of precious metals is valued at approximately $7 billion. In addition, JPMorgan Chase, as a major trader of precious metals, once delivered gold worth over $4 billion to settle gold futures contracts in February, marking the largest single-day delivery notice in Comex history. Arbitrage trading only came to an abrupt halt in April after gold was excluded from Trump's reciprocal tariff plan. Many banks engaged in gold and silver trading—particularly JPMorgan Chase—have historically excelled at profiting from transatlantic price dislocations. Five years ago, unprecedented arbitrage opportunities helped JPMorgan's metals trading division achieve record revenues of $1 billion in 2020. Angad Chhatwal, Head of Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) at Coalition, stated that the volatility triggered by Trump's tariff plan also generated revenue for these 12 major banks. In recent years, amid the astonishing surge in gold prices, which have doubled since the end of 2022, trading volumes in the London market have also been growing.

After falling to a low slightly above $3,100 last week, international gold prices staged another strong rebound this week amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impact of Moody's downgrade of the US's Aaa sovereign credit rating, with overnight prices rebounding above the 3,300 integer mark once again. In response, Adam Gillard, an FICC analyst at Goldman Sachs, believes there is a clear logical support behind this trend: the buying power from China is returning once again. Specifically, gold buying initiated in the Chinese domestic market during the night session of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) triggered a follow-up rally in the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) market. The total open interest in COMEX increased by 3% (4% for silver), while the arbitrage spread between the two major markets, SHFE/CMX, widened significantly. Gillard particularly emphasized that despite gold prices having pulled back 8% from their highs, what impressed him was that the scale of gold holdings in China remained stable at a high level. This indicated that, unlike the typical behavior pattern of domestic momentum traders who tend to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and sell amid continuous price decline, the pullback in gold prices did not trigger a massive wave of selling. As shown in the chart below, the open interest in gold futures on the SHFE is now returning to high levels, having once again reached the highest level since Q4 2019. Meanwhile, the overall gold holdings in the Chinese market (ETF + Shanghai Gold Exchange + SHFE) also remain high. Note: Light blue represents gold prices, and dark blue represents overall gold holdings. Previously, Chinese customs data released on Tuesday showed that China's total gold imports last month reached 127.5 mt, hitting an 11-month high. Despite gold prices hitting record highs in April, touching $3,500 per ounce at one point, this import figure still surged 73% from March. Some institutions have suggested that the central bank's move to allocate new import quotas to some commercial banks in April may have been a key factor driving the surge in imports. In response, Goldman Sachs pointed out that China's gold imports (excluding central bank purchases) rebounded to a one-year high in April, likely related to arbitrage activities triggered by the pricing advantage of the Shanghai Gold Exchange over the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). It is worth noting that despite gold prices remaining high overall, physical gold demand remains strong. This also explains, to some extent, why the premium level of gold prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has remained resilient—even as the precious metals market is currently facing a high-price environment. Note: Premium of gold prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. In fact, when gold prices surged last month, many market participants noticed the leading role of the Chinese market in the gold bull market. Goldman Sachs said at the time that the new highs and sharp corrections in gold prices over the past month "almost all occurred around the opening of the Chinese market" , and pointed out that the impact of capital flows through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange on gold price trends was more significant than that of futures and options on the US New York Mercantile Exchange.

According to media reports, copper scrap that had been piling up for weeks in Salt Lake City, US, has finally started to clear, largely due to progress in the China-US trade negotiations. Affected by the previous trade disputes, copper scrap exports from the US had almost ground to a halt, resulting in up to 300,000 pounds of copper scrap being forced to accumulate in the yard of Utah Metal Works Inc. This copper scrap came from old air conditioners, demolished buildings, and rusty cars. Now, with the US and China temporarily reducing each other's tariffs, US scrap metal merchants are striving to resume copper scrap exports to China. Due to its durability, malleability, and electrical conductivity, copper has long been widely used in the construction, transportation, and power industries. In recent years, it has also been used in the manufacturing of EVs, green energy plants, and data centers. In recent years, as copper demand continues to rise while copper mine production becomes increasingly tight, copper scrap has played a crucial role in the global supply, accounting for about one-third of the total. For a long time, US copper scrap exports to China have been a vital part of the global copper supply chain. Last year, one-fifth of the copper scrap imports by Asian smelters came from the US. China is the world's largest producer of copper cathode, accounting for more than half of global production. As a major exporter of copper scrap, the US exported 600,000 mt of copper scrap last year, a scale comparable to some of the world's largest copper mines, with more than half of it sold to China. Although tariffs have temporarily decreased, it is still unclear whether this will be enough to prompt US merchants to re-export the accumulated copper scrap. Analysts point out that the profit margins for copper scrap import businesses are very thin, making it difficult to import copper at any tariff level. The trade disputes have disrupted the entire copper scrap market. Data shows that the price of No. 2 copper scrap supplied by the US has seen a discount of 92.5¢ per pound compared to futures prices, the largest price spread ever recorded. In addition to trade restrictions, the price structure of US copper scrap has also dampened the purchase willingness of international buyers. Due to previous threats by US President Trump to impose import tariffs on copper, US copper prices have been significantly higher than those in other parts of the world this year. Some commodity giants have taken advantage of this to export copper to the US from around the world, profiting from the price difference. The pricing of US copper scrap relies on the futures prices of the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex). Faced with the relatively high prices, overseas buyers are generally deterred. Some traders have tried to shift their focus to other regions, such as Japan, but these markets are not enough to fill the gap left by China.

In just two months, international copper prices experienced a roller-coaster ride from a sharp rise to a steep fall, potentially posing a "crisis" for the lithium battery industry.

During the New York session on Friday, April 11, spot gold continued its recent strong performance, reaching a daily high of $3,245.47 per ounce, marking the second consecutive day of setting a new historical record. Spot Gold Price Daily Chart As of press time, spot gold prices have pulled back slightly, currently trading at $3,238 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 23% since the beginning of the year. Spot silver rose more than 3% to $32.25 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 11%. During the day, the main futures contract for gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange also showed significant strength, reaching a high of $3,263 per ounce, surpassing the previous historical high set on April 2. US Gold Futures Main Contract Daily Chart WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah stated, "In a world disrupted by Trump's trade war, gold has been regarded as the most favored safe-haven asset." Shah added, "The US dollar is depreciating, and US Treasury bonds are being heavily sold off as confidence in the US as a reliable trading partner weakens." Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany, commented that the increasing risk of a US recession, the surge in US Treasury yields, and the continued weakening of the US dollar—all these factors reinforce gold's role as a crisis hedge and inflation shield. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo believes that gold prices have further room to rise, "Our more optimistic forecast shows that gold prices are expected to target between $3,400 and $3,500 per ounce in the coming months." In addition to tariffs, Trump has been pushing the US Fed to lower the benchmark interest rate. Traders are now betting that the US Fed will cut interest rates in June, with a total reduction of about 90 basis points throughout 2025. Metal trader Tai Wong said, "As CPI and PPI provide the US Fed with more room to cut interest rates and will continue to exert downward pressure on the US dollar, the future trend for gold is upward."

Late at night, US stocks plummeted again, while gold hit a new high! On Thursday, April 10, the US stock market experienced a pullback. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.5% to 39,593.66 points, the S&P 500 dropped 3.46% to 5,268.05 points, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 4.31% to 16,387.31 points. Before the market opened, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the US CPI rose 2.4% YoY in March, below market expectations, while the core CPI increased 2.8% YoY, marking the smallest rise since March 2021. The "Magnificent Seven" all declined, with Apple down 4.24%, Microsoft down 2.34%, Nvidia down 5.91%, Amazon down 5.17%, Google (Class C) down 3.53%, Meta down 6.74%, and Tesla down 7.27%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.97%, with all 30 components closing lower. AMD dropped 8.41%, Broadcom fell 6.94%, Qualcomm declined 6.4%, Arm Holdings decreased 5.75%, ASML dropped 5.49%, and TSMC fell 4.8%. Among Chinese stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.14%. Popular Chinese stocks were mixed, with Li Auto up 5.25%, GDS Holdings up 4.94%, TAL Education Group up 3.21%, XPeng Motors up 3.04%, and JD.com up 1.44%. Alibaba fell 0.57%, New Oriental dropped 0.84%, NIO declined 0.91%, Tencent Music fell 1.19%, Baidu dropped 2.63%, and Pinduoduo fell 6.16%. The US dollar index fell more than 1.8%, marking its largest single-day drop since 2022, while safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen appreciated over 2%. Spot gold prices continued to rise, breaking the April 3 high and setting a new record at $3,180.13/oz. Meanwhile, the main gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange also rose to $3,194.3/oz but did not surpass the previous high of $3,201.6/oz set earlier this month. On Thursday evening, Trump posted on social media, stating that inflation has declined. In another post, he said, "Republicans are working well together. The biggest tax cut in US history!" Earlier, Trump's rapid response team stated on social media, "The March US CPI data is absolutely a low number. New data shows that inflation eased in March, beating expectations for the second consecutive month. Under Trump's leadership, America is back, but inflation is not." However, the "trade war" initiated by the Trump administration continues to weigh on the market. Federal Reserve official Logan stated on Thursday that higher-than-expected tariffs are likely to increase unemployment and inflation, emphasizing that her most pressing concern is controlling inflation and inflation expectations. "The persistence of inflation's impact will depend on how quickly companies absorb cost increases and whether long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored," Logan noted. She pointed out that when higher inflation expectations become entrenched, it takes longer to reduce inflation, the labor market weakens further, and economic damage deepens. "Sustained inflation outbreaks could lead households and businesses to expect further price increases, especially after years of persistently high inflation," Logan said. According to CCTV, on April 10, the US and Russian delegations completed the second round of talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on the normalization of embassy operations, which lasted five and a half hours. The US State Department issued a statement saying that the US delegation, led by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Russia and Central Europe Sonata Kurt, met with the Russian delegation led by Russian Ambassador to the US Darchev in Istanbul, Turkey. The statement noted that the US and Russian delegations continued the constructive approach established in the first round of talks, exchanged views, and ultimately reached an understanding to ensure the stability of diplomatic banking operations for bilateral missions. The US reiterated its concerns over Russia's "ban on hiring local employees," calling it a key obstacle to maintaining a stable and sustainable staffing level at the US Embassy in Moscow. On April 10, Russian Ambassador to the US Darchev, who was in Turkey for consultations with the US, stated that during the negotiations, both delegations agreed to quickly resolve sensitive issues left over from the Biden administration. Both sides agreed to continue measures to simplify travel and visa procedures for each other's diplomats. Additionally, they exchanged views to ensure stable banking services for diplomatic missions in each other's countries. Darchev also mentioned that Russia expressed its hope for the US to return confiscated Russian diplomatic assets as soon as possible. He revealed that both sides discussed the resumption of direct flights between Russia and the US, which would promote bilateral ties and increase personnel exchanges. The US stated in its declaration that Kurt and Darchev agreed to hold follow-up meetings on the above issues as needed in the near future, with the specific time, location, and representatives to be determined. Russia also stated that both sides are confirming the timing of the next round of consultations. US-Russian diplomatic relations have been tense in recent years, with both countries expelling each other's diplomats, leading to the inability of embassies to operate normally. This is the second round of talks between the US and Russia on the normalization of embassy operations, conducted behind closed doors. On February 27, representatives from the US and Russia held the first round of talks at the US Consulate General in Istanbul, determining specific initial steps to stabilize bilateral mission operations. On April 10, with the temporary easing of macro sentiment, the domestic chemical futures market showed a significant rebound. Among various chemicals, styrene futures led with a 6% increase, ethylene glycol futures rose 5.83%, short fiber futures increased 5.17%, paraxylene futures gained 5.11%, and PTA futures rose 4.97%, standing out among the rising chemical varieties with substantial rebounds. Regarding this, Xia Congcong, head of the Industrial Research Center at Founder CIFCO Futures Research Institute, believes that the "reciprocal tariffs" policy exceeded market expectations, leading to a rapid spread of risk aversion in the market. However, as the tariff policy dynamically changes, market sentiment has gradually been released. Especially after US President Trump announced that he had authorized a 90-day tariff suspension for countries or regions that do not take retaliatory actions, this news triggered a strong market rebound, and the impact of the implemented tariff policies on chemicals is gradually weakening. Miao Yang, an analyst at GF Futures, also believes that the short-term tariff dispute has eased to some extent, and after the release of negative market sentiment, it is conducive to the temporary stabilization of chemical prices. The downward impact of the macro front on chemicals has weakened but remains non-negligible. After the macro-driven impact weakens, the market will reassess the fundamentals of commodities. "From the perspective of the industry chain, the easing of tariff policies helps alleviate the export pressure on chemical companies and improve market expectations. However, the impact of previous tariff policies on industry chain adjustments and market confidence is difficult to eliminate immediately in the short term and will still suppress chemical demand to some extent," Miao Yang said. In terms of supply and demand, the medium and long-term outlook depends on the new capacity deployment and operating rates of chemical companies. Additionally, attention should be paid to the pressure on related companies affected by tariffs, especially in industries with concentrated global operations such as textiles, rubber and plastics, and basic chemicals. Changes in marginal demand will have an increasing impact on the futures market. Currently, the dominant logic in the chemical sector is the combined effect of "cost collapse" and "demand shrinkage." Looking at the future trend, the shift in market logic still depends on the turn of macro games. "In the short term, cost collapse remains the dominant factor. The stabilization and rebound of the cost side rely on trade negotiations and macro-boosting policies, but the recovery of the demand side will take longer," said Dai Yifan, head of energy and chemicals at Nanhua Futures. In Dai Yifan's view, the current market pessimism has approached a short-term extreme, but the persistence of sentiment fermentation still depends on two key premises. First, whether the escalation and expansion of tariff games can be paused; second, whether the domestic macro policy's expectation of boosting domestic demand can effectively help shift market pessimism after external demand is suppressed. "Currently, the market still needs some time to digest the impact of escalating tariffs. The end of short-term games will help market sentiment return to objectivity and rationality," Dai Yifan believes. Before the intensification of macro games, the downward impact on chemicals is more about the release of panic sentiment, with limited downside space. He believes that the future trend of chemicals will still be dominated by macro logic, with the impact of industrial logic being relatively limited for now. Currently, the market is quite concerned about which chemical varieties are stronger or weaker from the perspective of sector differentiation. "Currently, the chemical rebound will mainly revolve around the ethylene and propylene industry chains," Dai Yifan said. Domestic PDH and ethane cracking companies find it difficult to reduce production losses through re-export or adjusting procurement regions. After the tariff exemption period ends, production and operation pressures will increase rapidly. Taking PDH as an example, from June to July, the market estimates a supply loss of about 400,000 mt/month. In addition to PP, similar ethane cracking units will also cover PE, EB, EG, and other varieties. "The future trend of chemicals will still show significant differentiation," Xia Congcong believes. Varieties with strong fundamentals will stabilize and rebound first, such as urea, styrene, and ethylene glycol. Additionally, varieties strongly correlated with crude oil will perform prominently after oil prices stabilize and rebound. Domestically self-sufficient chemicals, such as PVC and plastics, remain weak overall due to increased capacity. In the rebound market, it is recommended to prioritize varieties with fundamental drivers for allocation. Taking ethylene glycol in the polyester chain as an example, Futures Daily observed a dramatic reversal in ethylene glycol prices this week. On April 10, ethylene glycol opened low and rose sharply, with EG2505 and EG2509 contracts both hitting the limit up. By the close, the EG2505 contract rose to 4,271 yuan/mt, and the EG2509 contract rose to 4,330 yuan/mt. Before this, since Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, ethylene glycol futures began to fall sharply, dropping more than 500 yuan/mt in just four trading days. On April 9, it once fell to 3,956 yuan/mt, hitting the limit down. Liu Siqi, an analyst at ZJTF Futures, believes that the reversal in ethylene glycol futures is mainly influenced by changes in tariff policies, directly reflected in the increased expected supply loss of ethylene glycol and the increased "rush to export" demand for polyester. The sharp rise in the futures market yesterday was also a correction of the previously overly pessimistic expectations. "From the perspective of supply and demand, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol in April and May are not bad. Domestic planned maintenance is at a high level, and overseas imports are expected to decrease. On the demand side, polyester maintains a high operating rate."Siqi Liu believes that in the short term, ethylene glycol futures are relatively resistant to declines, but under the backdrop of the US-China trade war, demand will be somewhat affected, with limited upside potential. Later, the core risk in the domestic chemical sector still revolves around the uncertainty of tariff policies, and the US's stance towards the EU, Southeast Asia, and other countries needs to be closely monitored," said Yifan Dai. "Firstly, it will affect the expected trend of global total demand, and secondly, it will significantly impact the possibility of China's manufacturing sector re-exporting. Due to the current extreme swings in tariff policy expectations, investors are still mainly operating with light positions or adopting a wait-and-see approach," he said. An Ran, a senior analyst at Hua'an Futures, believes that the focus of the future chemical market is mainly reflected in three aspects. Firstly, the uncertainty of Trump's policies still exists, and the 90-day tariff exemption is only a transitional period for negotiations with various countries. Whether the "reciprocal tariff" policy will continue after the transition period still poses a risk, and the trend of economic expectations declining remains unchanged. Secondly, the US fiscal crisis will escalate in May-June, involving a game between Trump and the US Fed. If US inflation pressure leads the US Fed to insist on balance sheet reduction without cutting interest rates, it may lead to an escalation of internal imbalances in the US, and the commodity market will still face the risk of a significant decline. Thirdly, OPEC's announcement of a production increase in May is also one of the core factors of this round of oil price decline. Currently, oil prices are above the cost of shale oil extraction, making further declines difficult. After future demand weakens, it is not ruled out that Middle Eastern countries will continue to cut production, and the expectation of stronger oil prices will bring some support to chemical products.

Overnight Stock Market The three major US stock indices closed sharply higher, with the Nasdaq up 12.16%, marking its largest single-day percentage gain since January 3, 2001, and the second-largest record gain; the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, recording its largest single-day percentage gain since October 2008; the Dow Jones increased by 7.87%. During the US stock market session, US President Trump stated that he had authorized a 90-day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions. Major tech stocks surged significantly, with Tesla up over 22%, Nvidia up over 18%, and Apple up over 15%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 19%, setting a record for its single-day gain. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 4.53%. The FTSE China A50 futures index rose 1.16% in the night session. The offshore yuan against the US dollar regained the 7.35 level overnight. Commodity Market International oil prices rose. The price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by $2.77, closing at $62.35 per barrel, a rise of 4.65%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for June delivery on the London ICE Futures Europe exchange increased by $2.66, closing at $65.48 per barrel, a rise of 4.23%. Market News [EU Approves First Round of Tariff Countermeasures Against the US, Imposing Up to 25% Tariffs on a Range of US Products] EU member states voted on the 9th to approve the first round of tariff countermeasures against the US, imposing up to 25% tariffs on a range of US products. This round of countermeasures primarily targets US steel and aluminum tariffs. The EU's countermeasures will be implemented in phases, with the first round taking effect on April 15. It is understood that the first round of countermeasures involves goods worth approximately 21 billion euros. [Trump Says He Will Not Allow Iran to Possess Nuclear Weapons] On April 9, US President Trump, while signing an executive order at the White House, told reporters that he hopes Iran can become strong but will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. According to reports, Trump stated that if necessary, the US will take military action, with Israel deeply involved and taking a leadership role, but "no one can lead the US." [Iranian President: Will Engage in Indirect Negotiations with the US with Dignity and Necessary Guarantees] Iranian President Pezeshkian, while attending the National Nuclear Technology Day event, stated that Iran will engage in indirect negotiations with the US with dignity and necessary guarantees. [Panama Says It Will Not Accept US Military or Defense Bases in Panama] Panama's Ministry of Security and the US Department of Defense signed a memorandum of understanding on April 9. During a joint press conference, Panama's Minister of Public Security, Avrego, emphasized that Panama's President Mulino has stated that Panama will not accept the establishment of military and defense bases in Panama, but Panama is willing to continue cooperation with the US in other security areas. [Fed Meeting Minutes: Inflation Slightly High, Uncertainty in Economic Outlook Increases] The Fed meeting minutes show that inflation remains slightly high. Participants noted that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has increased, and when considering the extent and timing of further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range, the Committee will carefully assess subsequent data, evolving prospects, and the balance of risks. The Committee is committed to supporting full employment and returning inflation to the 2% target. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of future information on the economic outlook. If risks emerge that could hinder the Committee's goals, they will be prepared to adjust the monetary policy stance as appropriate. The Committee's assessment will consider multiple factors, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, and financial and international developments. [Houthi Forces Claim to Use Drones to Strike US Aircraft Carrier and Other US-Israeli Military Targets] Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree stated that the Houthi forces used drones to attack a military target in the Tel Aviv area of Israel. The Houthi forces also used multiple drones to attack several US warships, including the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman. [UK Announces: Carrier Strike Group to Depart for NATO Exercises] The UK Navy's flagship, the HMS Prince of Wales, will set sail from Portsmouth on April 22, 2025, leading a carrier strike group consisting of warships, supply ships, submarines, and aircraft to the Mediterranean and Indo-Pacific regions. The strike group will first assemble off the coast of Cornwall, UK, before heading to the Mediterranean to participate in NATO exercises. In the initial phase of the exercises, the strike group will be under NATO command. [German Union Party and SPD Announce Coalition Agreement] The German Union Party, composed of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) announced a coalition agreement at a press conference on the 9th. According to the agreement, the coalition aims to reduce the burden on German citizens and businesses through tax cuts; the coalition unanimously agreed to tighten refugee policies; the coalition agreed to establish a National Security Council in the Federal Chancellery to coordinate comprehensive security policy issues and conduct joint assessments of the situation. Additionally, the agreement stipulates the distribution of ministries among the coalition parties: the Christian Democratic Union will control six ministries, including the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, as well as the Chancellery; the SPD will control seven ministries, including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Defense; the Christian Social Union will control three ministries, including the Ministry of the Interior. [Macron: France May Recognize Palestine in June] French President Macron stated on the 9th that France may recognize Palestine in June. Macron, in an interview broadcast on France 5 on the 9th, stated that France and Saudi Arabia plan to jointly host a conference on the Palestinian issue in New York, US, in June, and France may recognize Palestine at that time. He believes that recognizing Palestine at an appropriate time "is justified." Macron emphasized the importance of a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while calling on some countries that support Palestine to also recognize Israel. [Foxconn Plans to Launch Multiple EV Models in Japan] Foxconn Precision Industry Company stated that it will launch multiple car models in Japan by 2027 at the latest. Foxconn will collaborate with Japanese automakers to begin selling models developed based on Foxconn's compact car "Model B" in the Oceania region around 2026.

On Friday, March 28, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) declined due to subdued risk appetite ahead of the deadline for the US to impose reciprocal tariffs next week, deteriorating global economic growth prospects, and reduced motivation to deliver copper to the US ahead of potential tariff implementation. At 17:00 London time (01:00 Beijing time on March 29), three-month copper futures closed down $52, or 0.53%, at $9,794.5 per mt, after hitting a two-week low of $9,739 during the session. Copper prices have risen 12% so far this quarter, on track for the largest quarterly gain in four years, prompting some investors to take profits. Uncertainty remains high as the US plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on countries responsible for the majority of its trade deficit on April 2, while the previously announced 25% tariff on automobiles will take effect on April 3. Previously, the market expected the US investigation into whether to impose new import tariffs on copper to take months, but this expectation was shortened to weeks on Wednesday, narrowing the arbitrage gap between the most actively traded copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and the LME. As a global benchmark, the premium of COMEX over LME copper futures pulled back to $1,523 per mt, or 15%, after hitting a record high of $1,615 earlier this week. Alastair Munro, senior base metal strategist at brokerage firm Marex, said market speculation suggests that if the US announces tariffs on copper soon and does not exempt copper already in transit, these shipments could be diverted to LME-registered warehouses, adding additional resistance to the market. Copper inventory warrants in the LME system are currently at their lowest level since May, with a significant decline since early February as traders rushed to conduct swap trades and redirected supplies to the US. BNP Paribas stated in a report: "We expect that the tariff hike will end the current chaos in copper prices, allowing the market to focus on the negative demand impact of US trade policy." BNP Paribas forecasts that copper prices will fall to $8,500 per mt in Q2 and has lowered its global copper demand forecast for 2025 by 0.8%. The bank expects a surplus of 460,000 mt in the market this year due to slowing demand growth.

【US "Copper Rush": Suddenly Turned into a "Sprint Race"?】①The US "copper rush" suddenly turned into a "sprint race" this week...②Many traders were left in a frenzy: if the cargo ships loaded with copper arrived at US ports "leisurely" after Trump's tariffs took effect, their "well-calculated plans" might instead lead to huge losses... (Cailian Press)