The operating rate of major copper cathode rod enterprises in China stood at 81.51% last week (March 13–March 19), marking the fourth consecutive week of MoM improvement since the Chinese New Year, with industry sentiment continuing to recover. The strong rebound in the operating rate in this round was mainly driven by two factors: first, the relatively weak operating rates of secondary copper rod enterprises, coupled with the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap remaining at a relatively low level, significantly weakened the substitution effect between copper cathode and copper scrap, leaving more market room for copper cathode rod; second, improving orders for downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire boosted a faster drawdown in enterprises' finished product inventories. As copper prices broke above low-level support, downstream procurement sentiment continued to heat up, and new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises showed a pattern of concentrated volume release. Most enterprises reported that their production pace could no longer keep up with shipment progress, and some had already begun to proactively control the pace of taking orders to ensure contract fulfillment. From the downstream industry perspective, wire and cable as well as enamelled wire enterprises also benefited from the pullback in copper prices, with operating rates steadily rebounding, further boosting demand for copper rod. Inventory side, although the pullback in copper prices boosted enterprises' willingness to restock, constrained by limited room for capacity release, enterprises did not excessively stockpile on dips and mostly maintained normal production raw material reserves. Meanwhile, due to continued downstream pick-up of goods, enterprises' capacity was unable to fully match order demand, accelerating the drawdown of finished product inventories. Enterprises Raise Processing Fees and Increase Margin Requirements to Control Risks After copper prices pulled back sharply, downstream purchase willingness increased significantly, and order concentration rose markedly. To reasonably control the pace of taking orders, some enterprises urgently raised processing fees. At the same time, affected by the increased uncertainty in the pace of cargo pick-up caused by concentrated downstream order placement, as well as the continued decline in copper prices, enterprises became more concerned about the default risk of earlier high-priced orders, and some enterprises simultaneously increased margin ratios to strengthen risk control. Looking ahead, with copper prices rising at present, downstream procurement sentiment has clearly weakened. To ensure stable deliveries, copper cathode rod enterprises are expected to maintain relatively high operating loads. Although rigid demand is gradually being fully released, against the backdrop of low finished product inventories, enterprises will still maintain high operating rates to replenish inventory. Accordingly, SMM expects the operating rate of China's copper cathode rod enterprises to fluctuate at highs in March.

SMM News, March 25: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, but was slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Later in the morning, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center running higher than the previous trading day. Some sellers still did not quote prices, while some showed a notably stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Overall market buying sentiment was good. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Today, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by the fear of further declines over the previous two days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in central China showed slightly improved buying sentiment today from the previous day, but overall transactions had not yet returned to a fully active state, and buyers tended to purchase at wider discounts. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 20 yuan to a premium of 10 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong being the main source of destocking. In the short term, aluminum ingot continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup. Supported by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,016.5/mt. After dipping to $11,955.5/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,160/mt, and then continued to hover at highs, finally closing at $12,092.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 293,000 lots, up 406 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 93,600 yuan/mt and touched a low of 93,480 yuan/mt at the open. Its center then moved higher to a high of 94,990 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, finally closing at 94,670 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 533 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting reduced short positions throughout the day.

Recently, Mingyang Hydrogen’s MYH-K-1000 electrolyzer completed the authoritative evaluation under the China Hydrogen Alliance’s “Leader Program” and received the official test report. With multiple industry-leading performance indicators, it has established a new benchmark for alkaline electrolyzers adapted to fluctuating new energy scenarios, marking a major technological milestone for the company in the field of hydrogen energy equipment. This product is the first 1,000 Nm³/h-class alkaline electrolyzer on the China Hydrogen Alliance’s field-testing platform to achieve the “15th Five-Year Plan” target of 20%–120% ultra-wide flexible load regulation . At the 20% minimum load, it can stably control hydrogen content in oxygen to within 1.5%, enabling long-term stable operation. It also features rapid load response capability of 5%/s to 10%/s. Its core performance is industry-leading and perfectly suited to the flexible operating conditions of wind and solar power generation, providing robust support for the development of the green fuel industry. The test certification presentation ceremony was held at Mingyang Hydrogen’s Beijing Center. Yu Tianxiao, Director of the Quality Value Center at Guoneng Hydrogen Innovation and Deputy General Manager of Hydrogen Testing Technology, presented the certification report to Pan Yongle, Executive Director and CEO of Mingyang Hydrogen, and both parties witnessed this important moment together. Rigorous Field Testing Validates Outstanding Performance, Strong Results Under Extreme Cold Conditions According to the alliance’s field-test data, under 100% rated load, the MYH-K-1000 kept hydrogen content in oxygen below 0.5% and successfully passed load ramp-up and ramp-down tests at 3%/s and 5%/s. Under the ultra-low load of 20%, hydrogen content in oxygen remained compliant, while DC power consumption was as low as 3.85 kWh, achieving efficient and stable operation. This long-duration test was conducted throughout in an outdoor environment at minus 20°C . The product still demonstrated excellent cold and hot start capabilities, as well as high reliability, high safety, and fully flexible operating characteristics, overcoming the longstanding low-temperature operating limitations of traditional electrolyzers and enabling adaptation to more extreme application scenarios. Breakthroughs in Core Technology Innovation Set a New Industry Benchmark This electrolyzer adopts advanced integrated die-casting technology, delivering high consistency in its internal structure. The area of its electrolysis unit is 75% larger than that of traditional designs, and it overcomes sealing challenges on the basis of zero-electrode-gap technology, significantly improving product performance and production efficiency and setting a new technological benchmark for the industry. Company Statement: Continuous Innovation-Driven Development and Deepening Commitment to Hydrogen Energy Equipment Pan Yongle, CEO of Mingyang Hydrogen, stated that this certification is the result of the team’s technological breakthroughs. The company will continue to uphold the philosophy of “innovation-driven, green future,” further increase R&D investment, launch more high performance products, provide global clients with high-quality hydrogen energy solutions, and support the industry’s high-quality development.

On March 25, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict is threatening the US Fed’s dual mandate, complicating its monetary policy outlook and potentially delaying interest rate cuts—echoing earlier remarks by Fed Governor Barr that inflation risks and oil prices support keeping rates unchanged for longer. Specifically, the energy price shock poses risks to both sides of the US Fed’s dual mandate, making the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth more complex. “The new shock has undoubtedly disrupted the US Fed’s plans... and inflation was already uncomfortably high even before the shock occurred,” Goolsbee said bluntly. Goolsbee noted that central bank policymakers around the world lack clear historical experience to draw on in dealing with the current mix of geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, and therefore “this is a bad situation for central banks.” Goolsbee stressed that the current path of interest rates at central banks around the world still depends heavily on how the conflict evolves, especially its impact on energy markets. As for the US Fed, he said he is not yet able to judge whether it will be able to cut interest rates again, because that outlook depends on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which rising oil prices affect overall inflation. “Only if inflation shows improvement can one realistically expect rates to fall this year,” he added, further reinforcing the US Fed’s data-dependent stance. The US Fed’s Internal Stance Is Turning More Cautious These remarks by Goolsbee were highly consistent with earlier comments by Fed Governor Michael Barr. Barr had previously also emphasized that, given that US inflation remains above target and elevated oil prices are further pushing up inflation, interest rates may need to remain unchanged “for some time.” In addition, Barr likewise pointed out that although the US labour market appears to be stabilizing, US Fed officials need to see clear evidence of sustained disinflation before considering interest rate cuts. Taken together, these comments highlight the US Fed’s increasingly cautious shift in stance. As geopolitical developments exert a growing influence on the US inflation outlook, the combination of persistent price pressures and external shocks has reinforced expectations that high inflation will last longer, while also creating uncertainty over the feasibility of further policy easing in the near term. For markets, the key point is that after the Russia-Ukraine shock several years ago, energy-driven inflation risks have now been firmly incorporated into the US Fed’s reaction function. As a result, US Fed rate expectations may remain sensitive not only to economic data, but also to developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on oil prices.

Australia's Atlantic Lithium has obtained approval from Ghana's parliament to develop the Ewoyaa project—the country's first lithium mine—and will be subject to revised royalty terms linked to market prices.

On March 20, the Information Office of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Government held a press conference in the series “Implementing the ‘1571’ Work Deployment and Promoting High-Quality Development in Inner Mongolia,” providing a special briefing on the region’s achievements in green hydrogen industry development, key tasks for 2026, and the 15th Five-Year Plan. It made clear that, by leveraging its advantages in wind and solar power resources, Inner Mongolia will advance the full-chain layout of green hydrogen and continue to lead the nation’s green hydrogen industry. Key Focuses of the Hydrogen Energy Industry in 2026: Building a Pioneer Zone for Green Hydrogen Development In 2026, with the construction of a national pioneer zone for the green hydrogen industry as its core goal, Inner Mongolia will comprehensively advance the large-scale deployment of green hydrogen. It will launch pilot projects for large-scale off-grid hydrogen production, expand application scenarios such as blending green hydrogen into natural gas and coupling with the chemical and metallurgical industries, while simultaneously building green hydrogen industrial parks and broadening channels for the non-power use of green electricity. Within the year, construction will begin on three green hydrogen pipelines, including the Ulanqab–Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei route, to improve the transmission network. At the same time, the region will focus on breakthroughs in hydrogen energy technology, deepen collaboration among industry, academia, research, and application, and advance the implementation of demonstration projects for the first unit (set) of hydrogen energy equipment and collaborative innovation projects integrating wind and solar power, hydrogen, and energy storage, so as to consolidate the industry’s technological foundation. Green Hydrogen Industry Achievements Lead the Nation, with Advantages in Both Scale and Cost Becoming Prominent Inner Mongolia is richly endowed with wind and solar power resources, with technically developable wind and solar power resources exceeding 10 billion kW, accounting for one-quarter of the national total, laying a solid foundation for the green hydrogen industry. At present, multiple industry indicators ranked among the top nationwide. A total of 19 policies covering the entire industry chain of green hydrogen had been introduced; 7 projects were included in national demonstration programs; 8 projects were completed and put into operation, forming annual capacity of 80,000 mt. Green hydrogen production reached 12,694 mt in 2025, surging 3.6 times YoY; production in January and February 2026 was 2,653.6 mt, with production costs at 17-20 yuan/kg, only 60% of the national average. In addition, the country’s first provincial-level green hydrogen pipeline plan had been implemented, and the pipeline network featuring “one trunk line, two loops, and four outlets” was being accelerated. The hydrogen pipeline from Darhan Muminggan Banner to urban Baotou had already been completed, while green hydrogen applications now covered transportation, chemicals, power, and other fields, with the consumer market maturing rapidly. Precise Planning Under the 15th Five-Year Plan to Build a Strong Hydrogen Energy Industry Cluster During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, based on its existing foundation, Inner Mongolia will build a distinctive hydrogen energy industry cluster and focus on advancing four major tasks: scientifically formulate industry plans and reasonably lay out clusters by producing based on sales; tackle core technologies such as off-grid hydrogen production and flexible electrolyzers to raise the industry’s technological level; expand diversified application scenarios, improve business models, and open up the entire chain of production, storage, transportation, refueling, and utilization; accelerate the construction of green hydrogen pipelines within the region and across provinces, reduce transportation costs, comprehensively enhance the competitiveness of the green hydrogen industry, and support the industry in continuing to lead the nation.

Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt today, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the average transaction price rose 1,635 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 95,595 yuan/mt.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices remained in a stalemate consolidation. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The quote center of some silicon enterprises was slightly lower than that of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market, while downstream users mainly transacted at lower prices, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 38-47 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline somewhat recently, mainly affected by market sentiment and inventory clearance by some leading enterprises. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the sentiment to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price movements.