H1 2026 silver saw a sharp spike to 30,900 yuan/kg in January, then plunged 55% to 13,816 yuan/kg by June, driven by squeezed spot liquidity and Fed policy reversal from easing to hawkish. Supply grew steadily; PV silver demand fell 21% YoY. H2 outlook: wait for inflation signals and Fed pivot, silver likely remains under pressure.

In early July 2026, CAAM and the CPCA sub-council successively released relevant data on the automotive market for June 2026 and H1. CAAM stated that in H1, China's auto industry operated generally steady, with cumulative declines in production and sales narrowing month by month. Market trends showed three key divergences: first, domestic demand was under obvious pressure, with sales dropping by double digits; second, exports exceeded expectations and provided stable support... SMM has compiled the relevant automotive market data for June 2026 and H1 for readers' reference. Automotive CAAM: June Auto Production and Sales Rose MoM; H1 Decline Narrowed Further vs. First 5 Months In June, auto production and sales reached 2.76 million and 2.81 million units, up 5.5% and 6.9% MoM respectively, down 1.2% and 3.2% YoY respectively. From January to June, auto production and sales totaled 14.993 million and 15.017 million units, down 4% and 4.1% YoY respectively, with the declines narrowing further compared to the first five months. CAAM: NEV Production and Sales Posted Steady Growth in June; H1 NEV Sales Accounted for 49.6% of Total New Vehicle Sales In June, NEV production and sales reached 1.598 million and 1.643 million units, up 26% and 23.6% YoY, respectively. NEV new vehicle sales accounted for 58.5% of total new vehicle sales. From January to June, NEV production and sales reached 7.438 million and 7.446 million units, up 6.7% and 7.3% YoY, respectively , with NEV new vehicle sales accounting for 49.6% of total new vehicle sales. CAAM: June Auto Exports Surpassed 1 Million Units for First Time in History; NEV Exports Up 1.6 Times YoY In June, auto exports reached 1.037 million units, up 11.6% MoM, up 75.1% YoY, with monthly exports surpassing 1 million units for the first time . In H1, auto exports reached 5.096 million units, up 65.3% YoY. In June, NEV exports were 523,000 units, up 17.2% MoM, up 1.6 times YoY ; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 514,000 units, up 6.4% MoM and up 32.7% YoY. In H1, NEV exports totaled 2.355 million units, up 1.2 times YoY; traditional fuel vehicle exports reached 2.741 million units, up 35.5% YoY. Regarding the H1 auto market, according to CAAM's analysis, in H1, China's auto industry operated generally steady, with the cumulative declines in production and sales narrowing month by month. Market flows exhibited three major divergences: First, domestic demand was clearly under pressure, with sales falling by double digits; export growth exceeded expectations, providing stable support. Second, the passenger vehicle market performed poorly, edging down slightly; the commercial vehicle market continued its positive trend, with sales maintaining growth. Third, the transition between old and new growth momentums continued, with the traditional ICE vehicle market shrinking further and NEVs growing steadily. Meanwhile, the CPCA also released data on the passenger vehicle market in June. In June, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China totaled 1.602 million units, down 23.2% YoY and up 6.1% MoM. Cumulative retail sales for the year to date reached 8.701 million units, down 20.2% YoY. China's passenger vehicle market in June 2026 exhibited a trend of recovery characterized by "overall volume under pressure, sequential strengthening, and extreme structural divergence." For passenger NEVs, June retail sales reached 1.007 million units, down 9.4% YoY and up 6.0% MoM; from January to June, retail sales of passenger NEVs totaled 4.704 million units, down 14.0% YoY. In June, retail sales of conventional ICE passenger vehicles were 600,000 units, down 39% YoY and up 6.3% MoM. Notably, sales of conventional hybrid models fell only 7% YoY and rose 24% MoM, an eye-catching performance. As for NEV exports, June passenger NEV exports reached 499,000 units, up 152.7% YoY, up 17.6% MoM , accounting for 56.9% of passenger vehicle exports, up 15.9 percentage points from the same period last year. Of these, pure electric vehicles accounted for 58.7% of NEV exports (63.1% in the same period last year), with the core focus A00- and A0-class pure electric vehicles representing 53.8% of pure electric exports (51.2% in the same period last year). As the scale advantages of Chinese NEVs become evident and market expansion demand grows, an increasing number of Chinese-branded NEV products are going global, with recognition outside China continuing to rise. Specifically, narrowly defined plug-in hybrids accounted for 37.7% of NEV exports (33.4% last year), while extended-range EVs accounted for 3.6% (3.5% last year). Despite recent interference from some external countries, exports of domestic narrowly defined plug-in hybrids to developing countries have surged rapidly, with a bright outlook. The CPCA stated that the core characteristics of the auto market in June were "a collapse in domestic ICE sales, strong dominance of NEVs, and surging exports." The core pressure on the domestic market downturn came from ICE vehicles, whose retail sales fell 39% under the impact of high oil prices. Their market share was 37.2% in June, and the year-on-year decline in ICE volume accounted for 78% of the total reduction in passenger car sales. Among them, retail sales of conventional hybrid models fell 7%, while pure ICE vehicles dropped 42%, further segmenting the ICE vehicle structure. High fuel prices, the consumer shift toward new energy vehicles, and other factors have accelerated the replacement of internal combustion engine vehicles by EVs. The new energy retail penetration rate stayed at a historical high of 62.8% this month. The electrification transition of joint venture brands has sped up, with joint venture new energy car model sales up 45% YoY in June, while internal combustion engine vehicle sales fell 39% YoY. Exports continued to be the industry’s core growth driver. New energy vehicles accounted for a record 57% of exports in June, while the 33% growth rate for internal combustion engine vehicle exports was also very strong, creating a super-strong performance where both new energy and internal combustion engine vehicles are going global at the same time. The current domestic auto market is increasingly defined by a fight for existing market share, with divergence within the industry continuing to intensify. The new energy market bid farewell to all-around growth and has entered a polarized landscape where high-end EVs experience explosive growth while low-end, economy-oriented car models are under pressure, with the county and township markets and entry-level car model segments seeing overly sharp declines. At the same time, the "new car model effect" is becoming short-lived, significantly weakening its ability to boost the market. Pressure on the channel side remains prominent, the pace of passive industry destocking has accelerated, and dealers are generally suffering losses with climbing operational risks. Overall, the MoM market improvement in June was only structural recovery; electrification upgrades and overseas exports have become the core long-term support for industry growth. The characteristics of the passenger vehicle market in June 2026: 1. Overall market under pressure with major structural divergence. The biggest focus is "cold internal combustion engine vehicles, hot battery EVs." The core reason for the domestic retail decline is the "internal combustion engine vehicle collapse," which pushed the new energy retail penetration rate rapidly past 60% to 62.8%, with the pace of electrification replacement exceeding expectations. 2. Mini EVs are under pressure, the A-segment car market is shrinking, and entry-level consumption urgently needs support; the launch of economy EV standards is eagerly awaited. 3. Exports showed explosive growth, with new energy vehicles accounting for 57% of exports (a record high). A new energy and domestic brand-led dual-drive globalization has become the core growth engine. 4. The characteristics of passive destocking are obvious, dealer inventories fell rapidly, listed dealers reported comprehensive losses, and dealers' survival pressure continues to intensify. 5. The high-end breakthrough of domestic brands was prominent, with retail sales for these brands accounting for over 50% in consumer market segments such as 200,000-300,000 yuan, 300,000-400,000 yuan, and above 400,000 yuan. June delivery data for new forces in the auto industry is out, Leap Motor is gaining unstoppable momentum, and how are automakers progressing toward their annual targets? At the beginning of July, several Chinese new force automakers released their June delivery data, with many enterprises reporting dazzling results: In June, Leap Motor continued its unstoppable momentum, delivering 93,376 units globally, up 95% YoY, with cumulative H1 deliveries reaching 356,487 units. According to previous media reports, Leap Motor's full-year 2026 sales target is 1 million units, and its target completion rate now stands at about 35.65%. This year, Leap Motor's new vehicle deliveries have climbed steadily, securing a leading position among new car-making forces with this stellar performance. In July, Leap Motor continued to gain momentum with the launch of its "Summer Deals, Save in the Season" car purchase event. Customers who place orders during the event can receive limited-time benefits worth up to 61,279 yuan, plus four lifetime free warranties and premium services. This generous package aims to provide users with a more hassle-free car ownership experience. As of June 18, 2026, Leap Motor's global cumulative deliveries surpassed 1.5 million units, marking a significant milestone in the brand's development. In June, NIO delivered 40,597 new vehicles, a new monthly high since 2026, up 62.9% YoY. Among them, the NIO brand delivered 21,908 units, up 50.1% YoY; the Ledo brand delivered 11,743 units, up 83.5% YoY; and the Firefly brand delivered 6,946 units, up 76.7% YoY. To date, NIO has cumulatively delivered 1,188,715 new vehicles. In H1 2026, NIO delivered a total of 191,123 new vehicles, hitting a record high, up 67.4% YoY, with deliveries of all three brands reaching record highs in the first half. According to publicly available information, NIO previously stated that it aims to maintain annual sales growth of 40% to 50%. Based on this, its 2026 sales target is 456,000 to 489,000 units. As of now, its full-year sales completion rate is around 39.08% to 41.9%. Meanwhile, as of now, NIO has achieved profitability for two consecutive quarters, entering the third phase of high-quality development. Its multi-brand strategy is steadily progressing, and synergies are driving rapid sales growth. In June, XPeng Motors delivered 40,126 new vehicles, up 15.9% YoY, with Q2 cumulative deliveries reaching 103,295 units. During the same period, the 10,000th XPeng GX rolled off the production line, and global cumulative deliveries of the XPeng X9 exceeded 60,000 units. The first SUV in the MONA series, the XPeng MONA L03, will make its China debut and start pre-sales on July 2. XPeng's product lineup is further enriched, and its global expansion continues to advance. In H1 2026, XPeng Motors delivered 165,977 vehicles, representing a completion rate of around 27.66% to 30.18% against its 2026 sales target of 550,000 to 600,000 units. It is worth mentioning that global cumulative deliveries of the XPeng X9 have now exceeded 60,000 units, setting a new record for the fastest delivery speed of an MPV by a new energy startup. In June, Li Auto delivered 30,895 new vehicles. In H1 2026, Li Auto delivered a total of 193,472 new vehicles. As of June 30, 2026, Li Auto's historical cumulative deliveries reached 1,733,687 units. In March this year, Li Auto's chairman Li Xiang proposed a YoY sales growth of over 20% in 2026, corresponding to a full-year target of 487,600 units. Currently, its H1 delivery completion rate is around 39.68%. In July, the new generation Li Auto L6 will also be officially launched. Xiaomi’s June deliveries continued to exceed 30,000 units, with its H1 sales at around 180,000 units, achieving approximately 32.73% of its sales target of 550,000 units announced in January 2026. Meanwhile, BYD, a globally renowned EV enterprise, sold a total of 403,472 NEVs in June, up 5.46% YoY. Its cumulative production for the year reached 1.8141 million units, down 15.11% YoY, and cumulative sales reached 1.8085 million units, down 15.72% YoY. Among these, passenger vehicle production was 396,400 units and sales were 397,300 units. Notably, in June, BYD’s markets outside China continued to see rapid growth, with overseas sales of passenger vehicles and pickups reaching 174,897 units, up 95% YoY. In H1, BYD’s cumulative sales reached 1,808,511 units, and cumulative NEV sales exceeded 16.9 million units. According to public information, its previously set sales target was between 5 million and 5.5 million units, and its current achievement rate is around 32.88%–36.17%. Looking at the June report cards of BYD and these new force automakers, BYD and Leap Motor stood out: BYD’s sales once again surpassed 400,000 units, while Leap Motor continued to set new delivery records, with over 90,000 global deliveries keeping it firmly in the top spot among new force automakers. Both NIO and XPeng Motors exceeded 40,000 deliveries in June, delivering commendable performances. However, the sales achievements of these automakers still fall short of their annual sales targets. The highest achievement rate is Li Auto’s 39.68%. That said, expectations remain for the September-October peak season in H2, and with the recent rollout of multiple favorable policies for the auto industry, automakers’ subsequent performance is still expected to be promising. Policy side, on July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting the preferential vehicle and vessel tax policies for energy-saving vehicles and NEVs, stating that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving the vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption of vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including range-extended) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will also be abolished; taxpayers who newly acquire or have already acquired such vehicles before this announcement takes effect shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. In addition, on June 29, the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance and the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance jointly released the "Initiative on Regulating Supplier Payment for Power and ESS Battery Enterprises," which set out norms and initiatives for multiple stages including order confirmation and changes, delivery and acceptance, payment and settlement, and contract duration. After the release of this initiative, enterprises in China's power battery and ESS battery industry chain, including CATL, EVE, and Gotion High-tech, actively responded. The relevant official of the Equipment Industry Section I under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology commented that the 11 key battery enterprises actively responded to the initiative and proposed relevant implementation measures, demonstrating the responsibility and commitment of enterprises. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will fully leverage the role of departmental coordination mechanisms, promptly resolve issues in implementation, and take multiple measures to promote the establishment of a collaborative and win-win development ecosystem for the entire industry chain of power batteries and ESS batteries, fostering healthy and sustainable industrial development. Looking ahead to H2, CAAM expects that the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins will continue to be implemented in an orderly manner, and consumption in the automotive aftermarket is expected to see new growth opportunities, with new product supply from enterprises continuously enriched, market prices relatively stable, and the overall economic operation of the industry further improving. At the same time, it must be noted that the external environment is complex and volatile, uncertainties continue to increase, the issue of insufficient domestic demand remains prominent, and industry operations still face significant pressure. It is necessary to stabilize policy expectations, strengthen guidance and regulation, closely monitor changes in the international situation, effectively address risks and challenges, and steadily expand international markets.

[China's Highway Transport Capacity Continues to Expand, New Energy Truck Penetration Rate Exceeds 40%] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the "2026 China Highway Transport Capacity Development Report" today (July 10). According to the report, in 2025, the highway transport market continued to adjust and optimize, with the capacity structure rapidly upgrading towards scaling, specialization, and greening, while enterprises' risk resistance capacity and normalized operational resilience improved. Survey data showed that in the highway freight capacity structure at the time, internal combustion engine vehicles still dominated, accounting for approximately 50%, but new energy vehicles had already formed an irreversible substitution trend in specific scenarios. Among the surveyed enterprises, the penetration rate of new energy trucks was 44.4%. Among enterprises that had purchased new energy vehicles, 37.5% chose to "continue expanding the new energy vehicle fleet," and 37.5% chose to "maintain the current scale."

Per SMM statistics, the average operating rate of domestic die-casting zinc alloy manufacturers from January to June 2026 dropped by 6.25 percentage points year-on-year versus the same period in 2025, marking an evident slowdown in overall production activity.

SMM, July 10: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose, with SHFE copper up 1.67%, SHFE aluminum up 0.63%, SHFE lead edging down, SHFE zinc up 1.34%, SHFE tin up 2.18%, and SHFE nickel up 1.1%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.57%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.67%, the most-traded silicon metal futures rose 2.74%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 2.28%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.74%, rebar edged up, and hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel fell 0.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.38%, LME aluminum rose 0.28%, LME lead fell 0.18%, LME zinc rose 0.39%, LME tin rose 0.7%, and LME nickel rose 0.18%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.12% and COMEX silver rose 0.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.15%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract rose 3.48%. Additionally, by midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.53%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 3.65%. As of midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures contract rose 1.09% to 2,415 points. As of 11:41 on July 10, midday futures overview: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainly traded at 24,420-24,910 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 24,540-24,970 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded around 24,430-24,860 yuan/mt, Zijin was quoted at a discount of 0-10 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, Huxin was quoted at 26,010 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 60-130 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, and the Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market... Macro Front Domestic: [National Energy Administration: By 2028, Non-Fossil Energy Consumption Share to Increase by About 1 Percentage Point Annually] The National Energy Administration issued the "Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026-2028)." It proposes that by 2028, the non-fossil energy consumption share will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point annually; reasonably control coal consumption of coal-fired power units, striving to raise the proportion of coal power capacity meeting current energy efficiency benchmark standards by 15 percentage points; build a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining and oil areas; support the construction of a number of zero-carbon parks, achieve significant progress in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and continuously improve green energy use. It proposed vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in thermal power. A batch of eligible coal-fired power units of 300,000 kW and below will be shut down in a prudent and orderly manner, and the construction of replacement units is encouraged according to the requirements of new-generation coal-fired power ; a batch of 600,000 kW coal-fired power units will undergo ultra-supercritical cross-generation upgrading and retrofitting. Support will be given to eligible units for the co-firing of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuels and the retrofitting and construction of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). After retrofitting and construction, the carbon emission level per kilowatt-hour should be reduced by about 10%. A number of projects integrating coal-fired power, gas-fired power and new energy will be implemented, supporting the coupling of coal-fired power and new energy through thermal energy storage and other energy storage for peak shaving and peak support, integrated collection and transmission, thereby achieving the effect of integrated carbon reduction. (Jin10 Data APP) [China’s Road Transport Capacity Continues to Expand, New Energy Truck Penetration Rate Exceeds 40%] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the "2026 China Road Transport Capacity Development Report" today (the 10th). According to the report, the road transport market underwent continuous adjustment and optimization in 2025, with the capacity structure accelerating its upgrade towards scale, specialization, and green development; enterprises saw improvements in their risk resilience and operational resilience. Survey data shows that in the current road freight transport capacity structure, internal combustion engine vehicles remain dominant, accounting for about 50%, but new energy vehicles have already formed an irreversible substitution trend in specific scenarios. Among the surveyed enterprises, the penetration rate of new energy trucks was 44.4%. Among enterprises that have already purchased new energy vehicles, 37.5% chose to "continue expanding the new energy fleet," and 37.5% chose to "maintain the current scale." (CCTV News) [New Breakthrough in Green Hydrogen: China Achieves Minute-Level Preparation of Platinum Group Metal Catalysts] Platinum group metal catalysts are core key materials supporting modern industries such as energy, chemical, and environmental sectors. Recently, a team led by Professor Hu Wenbin from Tianjin University proposed a "transient assembly" strategy, developing a millisecond-scale periodic heat pulse technology that achieved ultra-fast synthesis and precise regulation of platinum group metal core-shell structure catalysts, opening up a completely new technical pathway for the atomically precise preparation of platinum group catalysts. The related results were published online in the international academic journal *Science* on July 10, Beijing time. (Xinhua News Agency) [Guangdong: Plans to Accelerate Technological Breakthroughs in Key Frontier Fields Including 6G, Optical Communications, and Satellite Communications] Recently, the "Guangdong Province Information and Communication Industry 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)" was released to solicit public opinions. It mentioned supporting basic telecommunications enterprises in actively participating in provincial key R&D programs, leveraging strategic scientific and technological forces such as the Pengcheng National Laboratory and industry leaders to help Guangdong’s information and communication industry establish a sound whole-process innovation ecosystem, accelerating technological breakthroughs in key frontier fields including 6G, optical communications, satellite communications, quantum communications, and agentic communications, and strengthening research on new network architectures such as integrated space-ground networks and integrated communication-sensing-computing networks. Focus on cultivating and developing the new 6G track, vigorously promoting the R&D and industrialisation of core components such as next-generation digital baseband chips, RF front-end chips, and 6G modules, as well as next-generation network communication equipment. Conduct application technology research on the integration of quantum encryption with information communication networks and the convergence of quantum computing with classical computing, and achieve breakthroughs in key technologies such as quantum computing, quantum materials, quantum precision measurement, quantum security, and critical core equipment. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC reverse repo operations led to a net withdrawal of 43 billion yuan on the day, and a net withdrawal of 416.5 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 20 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, and with 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, the net withdrawal for the day was 43 billion yuan. During the week, the PBOC conducted 62 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations. With 678.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repos maturing, the net withdrawal for the week was 416.5 billion yuan. US dollar side: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 100.66. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 25.1%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 35.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 13.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Perli, manager of the New York Fed’s Open Market Account, said that the reserve management purchase operations have no preset course, and the New York Fed’s Open Market Trading Desk may raise or lower purchase amounts depending on money market conditions. Additionally, Perli said that as Fed Chairman Warsh appoints a working group on the Fed’s balance sheet, the trading desk is ready to implement any changes and interest-rate control frameworks the committee may decide to pursue. The Fed began reserve management purchase operations last December, anticipating a rapid drain in reserves in April as tax payments flowed into the Treasury General Account. When the Treasury’s account balance at the Fed increases, reserves in the banking system decline. (Jin10 Data APP) Dallas Fed President Logan said that if the Federal Open Market Committee conducts open market operations through a voluntary central clearing mechanism, it would help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of operations and enhance the stability of US financial markets. Logan noted that such arrangements could improve the use of the Fed’s tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility. The facility is designed to provide liquidity to eligible financial institutions, but market usage remains low. Some believe that streamlining the clearing process could enhance its appeal. She also noted that market leverage levels need to be carefully managed and that financial markets must strike an appropriate balance between the returns and risks of leverage, as well as between leverage and liquidity. (Jinshi Data APP) The latest data showed that for the week ending July 4, which included the US Independence Day holiday, initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 215,000, below market expectations of 217,000 and persisting near historic lows. However, continuing claims, which reflect the state of re-employment among the unemployed, rose to 1.81 million, hitting a new high since March. Persistently low initial jobless claims, together with recent non-farm payrolls data, paint a picture of a US labour market characterised by shrinking layoffs and a slowdown in hiring. (Wall Street CN) Data-wise: Today will see the release of figures including Germany's final CPI MoM for June, France's final CPI MoM for June, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment numbers, China's June M2 money supply YoY, China's new RMB loans for the first half of the year, and China's total social financing growth for the first half of the year. Also in focus: a speech by 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan; and the provisional listing of SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on the Nasdaq on July 10. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices for both benchmarks edged up, with WTI crude rising 0.25% and Brent crude gaining 0.21%. Technical-level talks between the US and Iran are ongoing, with the market closely watching how the US-Iran situation unfolds. According to Fox News, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that Trump believes oil prices will remain at low levels in the future. India's state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has approved an expansion of the country's strategic petroleum reserves, highlighting efforts to strengthen energy resilience following the shock of the Iran conflict. According to a document, the board of India's largest oil and gas producer has approved the addition of 1.75 million mt of national crude oil reserve capacity in Mangalore, Karnataka. Specific costs and a timetable have yet to be announced. Upon completion, the project will increase the reserves managed by the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd. The company currently operates underground storage facilities at three locations on the east and west coasts with a total capacity of 5.33 million mt. In addition, two new sites are under construction that will add 6.5 million mt of storage space. ONGC stated in Friday's filing that the project is of "national importance" and that related supporting facilities will be developed under the directive of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ►] ► ► ► ► ►

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt, fell first before rising to a high of $1,904/mt during Asian trading hours; after entering the European session, it plunged and gave back all gains to a low of $1,886.5/mt, eventually closing at $1,894.5/mt, up 0.19%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,085 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,095 yuan/mt at the start of trading, then dived to a low of 15,975 yuan/mt, rebounded slightly in the last trading minutes, and finally closed at 16,040 yuan/mt, down 0.62%. On the macro front: The US Fed announced the list of heads for five new working groups. China's National Bureau of Statistics: In June 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.0% YoY, and the national producer price index (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY. CAAM: China's NEV production and sales reached 7.438 million units and 7.446 million units, up 6.7% and 7.3% YoY, January-June. The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Carbon Peaking Action Plan": By 2030, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, and the ownership of new energy vehicles is targeted to reach 30%. The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Human Resources and Social Security": During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, a considerable scale of new urban employment will be maintained. The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters upgraded the emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Zhejiang and Fujian from Level 4 to Level 3. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead consolidated on a subdued note, and with ample circulating supply in the market, suppliers mostly sold at discounts. Meanwhile, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters also saw wider discounts, with quotations in mainstream producing areas at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In the secondary lead sector, smelters were less willing to sell, and secondary refined lead was quoted at or near parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on EXW basis. Downstream enterprises only maintained just-in-time procurement, with limited inquiries, leading to sluggish transactions in the spot order market. Inventories: As of July 9, LME lead inventory remained flat at 291,425 mt; as of July 9, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions fell by 3,800 mt from July 6. Lead price forecast for today: Some primary lead enterprises have gradually completed maintenance, leading to an increase in lead ingot supply. Additionally, several secondary and primary lead producers plan to conduct maintenance in mid-to-late July, which is expected to limit further supply growth. At the same time, the off-season demand characteristics remain pronounced, and just-in-time procurement by downstream users is limited, raising doubts about the sustainability of destocking in social inventory of lead ingots. Currently, downstream enterprises harbor strong wait-and-see sentiment and reduced purchasing willingness. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM July 9: Metal markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.84%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.22%, SHFE lead fell 0.09%, SHFE zinc fell 0.65%, SHFE tin fell 1.43%. SHFE nickel rose 0.51%. In addition, alumina most-traded futures rose 0.22%, while the main aluminum alloy contract fell 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals were mostly higher. Stainless steel fell 1.03%, iron ore rose 0.54%, rebar rose 0.16%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.23%, the most-traded coke contract rose 0.26%. Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.6%, LME aluminum fell 0.02%, LME lead rose 0.19%. LME zinc fell 1.2%. LME tin fell 1.54%. LME nickel rose 0.89%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.7%, COMEX silver fell 4.3%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.47%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 3.88%. As of 7:12 a.m. July 9, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Xi Jinping attends National Science and Technology Awards Conference, Assembly of Academicians of the Two Academies, and 11th National Congress of China Association for Science and Technology, delivering important speech] Xi Jinping attended the National Science and Technology Awards Conference, the Assembly of Academicians of the Two Academies, and the 11th National Congress of the China Association for Science and Technology, and delivered an important speech. Xi stressed the need to deeply integrate technological innovation and industrial innovation, remove hurdles to accelerate the transformation of science and technology into real productivity. Scientific and technological innovation should be application-oriented, while industrial innovation should raise scientific questions. Strengthen the construction of a national technology transfer system, create diversified application scenarios and high-level industrial clusters, and promote the application and iterative upgrading of self-developed technologies and products. Improve the intellectual property protection system. Establish a sci-tech financial system compatible with sci-tech innovation. (CCTV News) [PBOC Q2 Monetary Policy Committee meeting: Strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, sci-tech innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises] The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its Q2 2026 regular meeting. The meeting analyzed domestic and international economic and financial situations, noting that the current external environment is more complex and volatile, global economic growth momentum is weak, geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions are frequent, major economies' performances are diverging, and inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments remain uncertain. China's economy has been generally stable, improving in quality, and making new progress in high-quality development, but still faces problems and challenges such as stronger supply than demand, structural divergence, and external shocks. The meeting called for continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, better leveraging the total and structural functions of monetary policy tools, enhancing coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices. The meeting pointed out the need to guide large banks to play the main role of financial services for the real economy, push small and medium-sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, and enhance banks' capital strength. Make good use of various structural monetary policy tools, optimize tool management, effectively write the "five major articles" of finance, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, sci-tech innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Continue to provide sound financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy. Maintain stable operation of financial markets. Effectively promote high-level two-way opening-up of the financial sector, and improve economic and financial management capabilities and risk prevention capabilities under open conditions. [CPCA: June passenger vehicle exports reached 877,000 units, up 82.3% YoY] According to CPCA data, June passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 877,000 units, up 82.3% YoY, and up 11.5% MoM, accounting for 37% of total passenger vehicle manufacturer sales (36% last month, 19% in the same period of 2025). New energy vehicles accounted for 56.9% of total exports, up 16 percentage points YoY. In June, exports of Chinese domestic brands reached 763,000 units, up 86% YoY; exports of joint venture and luxury brands reached 114,000 units, up 61% YoY. (From Wall Street See APP) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 101.07. The Fed's June meeting minutes showed officials' growing concerns about high inflation. Although officials worried that rising prices were spreading and might require interest rate hikes, they followed the footsteps of Fed Chairman Warsh in issuing a more streamlined policy statement. At the June 16-17 meeting, a few participants saw a case for an immediate rate hike. But the broader discussion appeared evenly split: "most participants" saw scenarios where inflation could ease back to the Fed's 2% target on its own, while also seeing scenarios where inflation would persist. "Almost all" of those espousing the latter view thought rate hikes would be necessary in that case. The minutes said: "Participants generally agreed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained high, while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had eased." In the end, "all participants" supported keeping rates unchanged. Policymakers also considered Fed Chairman Warsh's proposal to end "forward guidance" and reduce comments on future rate decisions in the statement. "Most participants noted they saw advantages to shortening the statement," the minutes said, while "most participants" supported removing language implying the Fed's next policy move was likely to be a rate cut. The alternative approved by the Fed in June stripped out any interest rate guidance altogether, consistent with Warsh's general desire to avoid committing to rate moves. At the June meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the latest projections showed a general belief that rate hikes could come this year, with 9 of 18 officials expecting a modest rise in rates by end-2026. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.0%, and a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31.0%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 31.1%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 17.0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro front: Data to be released today include China's June CPI YoY, China's June PPI YoY, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, and US existing home sales annualized for June. Also watch for: Fed release of monetary policy meeting minutes; ECB release of June monetary policy meeting minutes; and remarks from FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures continued their gains from the previous session and surged further, with WTI crude up 6.13% and Brent crude up 7.17%. US President Trump said the temporary ceasefire with Iran had ended, geopolitical risk premium returned to oil prices, market fears of crude supply disruption quickly intensified, and international oil prices jumped. (Wall Street See) According to Xinhua, US President Trump said on July 8 during the NATO summit in Turkey that US forces "are likely to hit Iran hard again tonight." Xinhua also reported that on July 8, Trump said at the NATO summit he believed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding "has ended." Wall Street See noted that shortly afterward, Trump said the escalation would calm down quickly, seemingly adding fuel to the geopolitical fire before trying to put it out. Earlier, the US had announced the revocation of waivers for Iranian oil sales and launched a new round of military strikes against Iran. However, an unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories somewhat eased geopolitical risk premiums. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said: "Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially come to a halt, which speaks louder than any statement from Washington or Tehran about the current risk perception." (Wall Street See) US President Trump said we'll see if we can keep oil prices low, we should keep oil prices low. We're now facing an oil oversupply. This situation will soon end, and oil prices will fall. We will make the oil situation safer. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels, compared to Bloomberg user estimate of a 1 million barrel decline and analyst expectations of a 1.8678 million barrel decline, after a 3.775 million barrel decline the prior week. US commercial crude oil inventories increased for the first time since April, ending a streak of consecutive monthly declines, though they remain at their lowest level in about four years. (Wall Street See) In addition, the Russian government announced that the ban on diesel exports will remain in effect until July 31.

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [Central Bank Net Withdraws 85 Billion Yuan via Open Market Operations] The central bank today conducted a 15 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, with a bid amount of 15 billion yuan and a winning amount of 15 billion yuan, at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous level. As 100 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos expired today, a net withdrawal of 85 billion yuan was achieved. 02 ★★★ [A Member of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Killed Repelling Drone Attack] According to Iranian local time on the 8th, the Navy of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that earlier that day, a naval member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was killed in the process of responding to an incoming drone in the Mahshahr region of southwestern Iran. On the 8th, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that the U.S. military launched airstrikes in the early morning on coastal areas of Iran's Hormozgan Province and some coastal bases and non-military facilities in Mahshahr, violating the ceasefire agreement and breaching the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [CPCA: June Retail Sales of China's Passenger Car Market at 1.602 Million Units] CPCA data showed that retail sales of China's passenger car market in June were 1.602 million units, down 23.2% YoY but up 6.1% MoM. Year-to-date retail sales reached 8.701 million units, down 20.2% YoY. In June, retail sales of internal combustion engine vehicles fell 39% YoY, with pure gasoline cars down 42% and conventional hybrids down 7%. Among combustion engine vehicles, domestic brands fell 39%, mainstream joint ventures fell 39%, and luxury brands fell 39%, all indiscriminately hit by the sharp impact of high oil prices. June retail sales of new energy vehicles fell 9% YoY, with domestic brands down 11%, mainstream joint ventures up 45%, and luxury brands down 11%. The retail sales of domestic economy EVs were significantly impacted by the sharp decline in subsidies. 02 ★★ [H1 Excavator Sales Up Over 26% YoY] Data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association showed that in June, total excavator sales reached 25,400 units, up 35.3% YoY. Of this total, domestic sales came to 10,900 units, up 33.9% YoY, while exports stood at 14,500 units, up 36.4% YoY. Based on H1 data, since March, excavator sales have exceeded 20,000 units for four consecutive months, with March sales reaching 37,400 units, the highest monthly sales since May 2021. Cumulative sales in the first half reached 152,300 units, up 26.4% YoY. China domestic sales reached 79,000 units, up 20.4% YoY, while exports totaled 73,300 units, up 33.5% YoY. The loader market also sustained its high growth trajectory, with the industry recovery gaining broad-based momentum. Data shows that loader sales across all types reached 15,000 units in June this year, up 24.9% YoY. Cumulative sales of all loader types hit 82,100 units in H1 this year, up 26.7% YoY. 03 ★★ [ Yuxi Xianfu Coke Project Expected to Begin Trial Production in November ] Yunnan Yuxi Xianfu Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter "Xianfu Steel") is currently accelerating construction of its supporting 1-million mt/year coking project, targeting trial production this November. Overall project completion now stands at roughly 80%, with cumulative investment reaching 1.5 billion yuan. 04 ★★ [Shandong Province Coal Mine Capacity Status] In accordance with the requirements of the National Energy Administration's Notice on Establishing a Coal Mine Capacity Registration and Public Announcement System (GN Coal [2013] No. 476) and Notice on Improving the Coal Mine Capacity Registration and Public Announcement System to Carry Out Public Announcements for Coal Mines Under Construction (GN Coal [2017] No. 17), the production and construction coal mine capacity status across the province is hereby announced as follows: As of June 30, 2026, Shandong Province has 76 legally operating or under-construction coal mines, with a total annual capacity of 113.57 million mt. Among these, there is 1 coal mine under construction with a construction scale of 450,000 mt/year, and 75 operating coal mines with a registered production capacity of 113.12 million mt/year. 05 ★★ [ CPCA: China Passenger Car Market Retail Sales Down 23.2% YoY, Up 6.1% MoM in June ] Data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that nationwide passenger car retail sales reached 1.602 million units in June, down 23.2% YoY and up 6.1% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales hit 8.701 million units, down 20.2% YoY. Passenger NEV retail sales reached 1.007 million units in June, down 9.4% YoY but up 6.0% MoM. For January-June, passenger NEV retail sales totaled 4.704 million units, down 14.0% YoY. Retail sales of conventional internal combustion engine passenger cars reached 600,000 units in June, down 39% YoY but up 6.3% MoM. Notably, sales of standard hybrid models fell only 7% YoY while surging 24% MoM, a standout performance. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [China Energy Group's Coal Port Departures and Arrivals Both Hit Record Highs in H1] As of June 30, the port segment of China Energy Group has completed cumulative coal arrivals of 148.009 million mt and coal port departures of 147.1 million mt. The group's coal port arrivals and departures both reached new all-time highs for the same period in H1, effectively ensuring smooth and efficient operation of the critical energy transportation channel. Since the beginning of this year, the port subsidiary of China Energy Group has optimized production organization, unlocked port capacity, coordinated resource allocation across three ports, innovated operation models and loading/unloading processes, increased the direct loading ratio and circulation efficiency, and simultaneously expanded market coal transshipment business, driving a steady rise in throughput. In the area of equipment support, it has fully implemented a production equipment full life cycle management system, adopted refined maintenance standards and grid-based accountability mechanisms, built a real-time condition monitoring platform for key equipment, and achieved equipment fault prediction and early warning. This has driven a comprehensive transformation and upgrade of the operation and maintenance model from "reactive repair" to "proactive defense," solidifying the hardware foundation for continuous and stable production. [Turkey Initiates Sunset Review of Anti-Dumping Duties on Vietnamese Stainless Steel Pipes] On July 3, 2026, the Turkish Ministry of Trade issued Communiqué No. 2026/27, announcing the initiation of the first sunset review of anti-dumping duties on stainless steel pipes and other hollow structural profiles originating in Viet Nam, following an application by a domestic producer. The products in question are classified under Turkish Customs Tariff numbers 7306.40.20.90.00, 7306.40.80.90.00, and 7306.61.10.00.00. During the investigation, the current anti-dumping duties will remain in effect. The communiqué takes effect on the date of its publication. *This report is an original work and/or compilation work of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), which legally holds the copyright and is protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, among other laws and regulations, and applicable international treaties. Without written permission, no part of the above content may be reproduced, modified, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to a third party in any form, nor may any third party be licensed to use it. 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[SMM Analysis: H1 2026 Overseas Copper Scrap Market Review: Firm Payability and Persistent Supply Tightness] The tightening supply of copper pushed companies to look beyond mine supply for supplementary sources, with the importance of copper scrap rising significantly. More importantly, the structural tightness in copper has begun to reshape the pricing logic of the copper scrap market.

In the medium to long term, the reverse-charging invoice policy will reshape the secondary copper circulation system, accelerating industry consolidation, and high-precision copper billet for new energy and AI computing power will become the core growth driver for the copper billet industry in the future.