Since mid-to-late September 2025, copper prices have surged strongly and rapidly, repeatedly hitting record highs. As of now, the SHFE copper 2601 contract reached a peak of 99,730 yuan/mt, while the tax-exclusive bare bright copper price climbed to a high of 85,700 yuan/mt. Driven by the rapid rise in copper prices, the tax-inclusive price difference between primary metal and scrap continued to widen, once exceeding 5,000 yuan/mt.

This week, the domestic secondary copper market continued its strong trend driven by multiple favorable factors, with copper prices rising by 2,800 yuan/mt over the week, once again hitting a record high. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong followed the increase to 82,800-83,000 yuan/mt, up 1,600 yuan/mt within the week. Despite the continuous price surge, market trading did not recover simultaneously, showing a notable "price rise but thin volume" characteristic. Supply side, since the National Day holiday, many traders of recycled copper raw materials have adopted a cautious stance toward the year-end market, actively controlling inventory levels, which led to limited actual circulating supply during this round of price increases. Most traders adopted an order-based procurement model

Last week, Chinese steel futures held up well, influenced by macro sentiment regulation, and steel export offers also strengthened. However, after the rise, most overseas customers had low acceptance, making it difficult to ship. This week, prices pulled back again. Current Chinese HRC export offers are $462-465/mt; billet export offers are $436-439/mt. With the overseas Christmas holiday approaching, market inquiries have noticeably weakened over the past two weeks, and overall transactions have also been lower than before. Based on SMM export order intake, the 21 exporters surveyed by SMM this cycle took approximately 415,000 mt in new export orders, down 20.05% WoW from the previous week's orders. The 31 exporters took approximately 645,200 mt in new export orders (new caliber), down 18.46% WoW from the previous week's orders.

According to SMM, the comprehensive operating rate of the enamelled wire industry in November was 67.91%, up 3.44 percentage points MoM, but down 1.33 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 68.38%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 66.05%, and that of small enterprises was 69.29%.

SMM's monthly metal production data is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals and help industry chain participants and investors gain a clearer grasp of the future direction of the non-ferrous metal market.

Processing Fees for Aluminum Billets in Southern China Approach Yearly High—Coincidence or Inevitability? [SMM Analysis] As of November 28, the processing fees of φ120 aluminum billets in South China (centered on Foshan) were quoted at 390 yuan/mt, while those of φ90 aluminum billets were quoted at 440 yuan/mt, having accumulated an increase of over 200 yuan/mt from the monthly low and approaching the annual highs of 470 and 520 yuan/mt in 2025. Although there were fluctuations in Wuxi and Nanchang, the fees also showed significant recovery from the mid-month lows. The strong performance in late November appeared to be a short-term pulse driven by the pullback in aluminum prices and concentrated restocking, but in reality, it was an inevitable outcome under the seasonal pattern of the aluminum billet market in November—short-term price pullbacks as accidental factors only acted as a "catalyst," while the core support was...

According to data monitored by the China Index Academy, in October 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,268 yuan/m², down 0.84% MoM, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and down 7.60% YoY. Affected by high listing volume and weak expectations, the downward pressure on second-hand home prices remains significant. In the new home sector, several real estate companies leveraged the National Day holiday in October to launch high-quality improvement projects, driving a structural increase in the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities MoM. In October, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,973 yuan/m², up 0.28% MoM and up 2.67% YoY. In the rental housing sector, the housing rental industry gradually entered the traditional off-season in October. The average residential rent in 50 cities was 34.57 yuan/m²/month, down 0.49% MoM and down 3.63% YoY.

In October 2025, the secondary copper rod market struggled under multiple pressures including policy uncertainty, volatile copper prices, and weak end-use demand, generally characterized by an operating rate fluctuating at lows, diverging profit margins, and regional structural adjustments.

In October 2025, China's magnesium exports experienced a significant downturn, with total product volume plunging 31.6% month-on-month to 29,700 tonnes. The decline was led by a drastic 50% drop in magnesium ingot exports, the primary export category. This sharp contraction was primarily driven by two factors: a market standstill during the National Day holiday and widespread order front-loading into September due to uncertainties about October's export customs policies. Notably, magnesium alloys were the sole bright spot, posting a 7.14% monthly increase and signaling persistent structural demand. However, the ongoing price decline has now triggered early purchasing plans for 2026 orders. This trend of demand anticipation is expected to keep Q4 export volumes under pressure while potentially disrupting the normal procurement cycle in the overseas market next year, thereby amplifying industry volatility.

The production cuts affected the entire country, reducing the total operating capacity of aluminum rods by 792,000 mt in November. Based on SMM's sample capacity of domestic aluminum rods of 8.385 million mt, the scale of these cuts accounted for nearly 10% of the total sample, indicating a significant contraction in supply. Regionally, Inner Mongolia led the reductions with a cut of 252,000 mt, followed by Shandong and Shanxi (144,000 mt each), Guangxi and Henan (72,000 mt each), and Guizhou, Ningxia, and Chongqing (36,000 mt each). If downstream demand continues to show no signs of recovery, the scope of production cuts may further expand.