SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper gained 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead slipped 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin increased 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, while the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore declined 0.35%, and rebar dipped 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.97%. Overnight, overseas metals: LME base metals all rose. LME copper increased 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, up 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead gained 0.26%. LME zinc climbed 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel increased 0.3%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver recorded a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate Social Financing Growth Totaled 22.25 trillion yuan in the First Seven Months; M2 up 7.7% YoY in July] According to preliminary statistics from the PBOC, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative growth in aggregate social financing totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 10.17 trillion yuan, 214 billion yuan less than the same period last year; foreign-currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, increased by 169.4 billion yuan, 241.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, 12.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, 226.4 billion yuan more than the same period last year; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, 41 billion yuan less than the same period last year; net financing of enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more than the same period last year; net financing of government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less than the same period last year; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 1.038 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, including a decrease of 928.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 101 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, including an increase of 434 billion yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 532 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans, and an increase of 119 billion yuan in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At end-July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) stood at 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) stood at 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. Net cash injection in the first seven months totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting the Momentum Build-Up of Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Intelligent Vehicles, and High-End Equipment] Today (August 14), Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining spent the entire day conducting a survey in the Lin-gang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and chaired a symposium. Chen Jining noted that the Lin-gang Special Area must always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity level and core competitiveness. Seizing opportunities in digital-intelligent and green transformation, while ensuring project implementation, it should place greater emphasis on fostering an industrial ecosystem, cultivating industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, developing industrial platforms and enhancing service capabilities, strengthening the resilience and stickiness of industrial development, and promoting the momentum build-up of leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, intelligent vehicles, and high-end equipment. Leveraging the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios, it should advance the digital-intelligent transformation of industry by increasing the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing and equipment operation and maintenance, thereby driving systematic transformation across the full process, including industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and detection, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment and improve services for enterprises, and accelerate the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen reforms of management systems in development zones and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.64. Weekly: the US dollar index rose on a weekly basis, up 0.04% for the week. US retail sales for July released on Friday fell 0.6% MoM, the biggest drop in more than a year. Combined with this week’s mild inflation data, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September further collapsed. The US dollar index declined. With mild CPI on Wednesday, PPI at zero growth MoM on Thursday, and a downside surprise in retail sales on Friday, the three-hit combination drove the probability of a September rate hike down from 75% at end-July to around 25%. CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders bet on no change in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from “how many more rate hikes” to “whether this rate-hike cycle has already ended.” (Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the biggest decline in more than a year, versus market expectations of a slight increase. Core control group sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the weakest performance since January 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August released the same day came in at just 51, well below the expected 54.5. (Wallstreetcn) As households grew concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation, US consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index dropped to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median economist forecast was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and well above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years. After improving for two consecutive months, consumers’ confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the start of the year, consumers’ expectations for the labour market have changed relatively little. The survey showed consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have eased. The survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed US retail sales in July posted the biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers cut back on purchases of autos and from online stores. (Jinshi Data APP) US Fed’s Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He noted that the latest two productivity readings were not ideal, and if productivity continues to weaken, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed before making a judgment; persistent weakness in consumption is concerning, though the current retail sales weakness is only a one-month performance. Meanwhile, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall. (From the Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October is 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 6.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial value-added above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the US August NAHB Housing Market Index, the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the eurozone’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, US July housing starts (annualized), US July building permits, US July import price index (MoM), US July industrial production (MoM), US July pending home sales index (MoM), the UK July CPI (MoM), the UK July retail price index (MoM), the eurozone’s June current account (seasonally adjusted), the eurozone’s final July CPI (YoY), the eurozone’s final July CPI (MoM), the share of RMB payments via Swift in global payments for China in July, China’s one-year loan prime rate through August 20, Australia’s July unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted), Germany’s July PPI (MoM), Switzerland’s July trade balance, the UK August CBI industrial trends orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the US July Conference Board Leading Index (MoM), the UK August GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Japan’s July core CPI (YoY), the UK July public sector net borrowing, the UK July retail sales (MoM, seasonally adjusted), France’s preliminary August manufacturing PMI, Germany’s preliminary August manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s preliminary August manufacturing PMI, the UK preliminary August manufacturing PMI, the UK preliminary August services PMI, Canada’s June retail sales (MoM), the US S&P Global preliminary August manufacturing PMI, the preliminary global services PMI, and the eurozone’s preliminary August consumer confidence index, among others. In addition, next week’s key events include: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on national economic performance; ECB President Lagarde attending the “Global Economic Outlook” session at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes Company announcing the review results for the Hang Seng Index Series for 2026 Q2. On crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.42% and Brent up 2.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures rose 5.4% for the week; Brent posted a positive weekly close, up 6.31% for the week. International oil prices rose, driven by an almost complete standstill in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, bringing passage to a near standstill. The US said it could maintain a maritime blockade of Iran indefinitely, and Trump added that he would impose severe economic strikes on Iran. Capital Economics estimated that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were currently only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Prompt Brent maintained a spot premiums structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining hubs was damaged, and the surge in refined product prices was being directly passed through to end consumers. (Wallstreetcn) Traders said that as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for deliveries later this year, and at least four Asian refiners purchased US crude oil this week. Both the US and Iran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below this month’s average level in the latter half of the week. With no sign in the near term that shipping through the strait would resume smoothly, tightening fuel supplies will lift refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude oil inventory needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell, plan to deliver in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13-14 per barrel to the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner, Cosmo Energy Holdings, bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner, ENEOS, purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura, plan to deliver in November, at a premium of more than $10 per barrel to October WTI prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US oil production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, versus 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day. (Jinshi Data APP) Notably, due to position rolling and contract rollover, NYMEX New York crude oil September futures will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange’s expiry and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiry time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule; please pay close attention. Recommended Reading:

Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B23R085 grade: 11,900-11,900 yuan/mt Wuhan 23RK085 grade: 11,300-11,300 yuan/mt This week, China's grain-oriented silicon steel market remained stable overall. Spot prices diverged across regions, but mainstream market quotes held steady. There were no public price adjustment moves in Shanghai or Wuhan, and overall market trading performance was mediocre. Supply side, mainstream steel mills kept their production pace stable. In August, the ex-works base price for GO silicon steel was raised by 50 yuan/mt. Combined with raw material costs, this formed bottom support, and steel mills had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, theoretically providing a floor for spot prices. However, the market was in the traditional demand off-season, and cost-side positives were blocked from transmitting upward, making it difficult to drive spot prices higher. Demand side, downstream transformer enterprises entered the traditional high-temperature off-season, and power grid tender projects were implemented at a relatively slow pace. End-user enterprises adopted conservative procurement strategies. Most only maintained small-scale rigid-demand restocking, and willingness to proactively stockpile in bulk was insufficient. The overall trading atmosphere was sluggish, and market participants remained cautious. Overall, supply and demand continued to contend. Costs and steel mill price adjustments effectively limited the room for deep market price declines, but there was no clear signal of short-term demand recovery. Next week, GO silicon steel is expected to continue its weak but stable consolidation pattern, with market trading still dominated by rigid-demand transactions. Going forward, continue to monitor power grid tender fulfillment progress, downstream operating conditions, and raw material cost fluctuations. Data Source Statement: (Apart from public information, other data in this report are all derived from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They have been comprehensively analyzed and reasonably inferred by the research team, and are provided for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. SMM has the final right to interpret the terms of this statement and reserves the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement based on actual circumstances.

July Price Review ： Domestic grain-oriented silicon steel prices rose first and then retreated in July. Supported by rigid demand from downstream transformer manufacturers as well as orders in the new energy and UHV sectors from early to mid-July, mainstream grades including B23R085 climbed to cyclical highs. Nevertheless, persistently high prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, market trading turned sluggish, and spot prices came under pressure and fell at month-end, ending the upward rally. In view of forward expectations, the market generally holds the view that this round of price surge has come to an end. Fundamental Analysis Domestic steel mills plan to maintain roughly the same output of grain-oriented silicon steel in August as in July, sustaining high production levels with no obvious tightening in supply delivery pace. In terms of product mix, production is still overwhelmingly dominated by high magnetic induction (HIB) grain-oriented silicon steel, while the output proportion of conventional CGO grain-oriented silicon steel remains low. Output of both varieties changes little compared with July. Steel mills have no intention of carrying out concentrated voluntary production cuts. The continuously ample supply keeps weighing on the spot market and creates obvious resistance to further price hikes. Newly added installed capacity of various power sources showed divergent performance in June, forming structural support for grain-oriented silicon steel demand. Newly installed thermal power capacity maintained relatively strong year-on-year growth. Thermal power supporting step-up transformers and auxiliary transformers for power plants continued to generate rigid demand for grain-oriented silicon steel. Newly installed hydropower capacity increased substantially, driving demand for main and auxiliary transformers of hydropower stations. Newly installed wind and solar power capacity was weaker than the same period of previous years, leading to limited incremental demand for box transformers and main transformers supporting new energy. Newly installed nuclear power capacity declined, resulting in periodic weakening of demand for special grain-oriented silicon steel for nuclear power applications. Overall, construction of traditional power sources gained momentum in June. Thermal and hydropower installed capacity contributed major incremental demand, supporting orders for large power transformers and further boosting demand for high-grade grain-oriented silicon steel. Insufficient incremental wind and solar power installations offset part of the demand growth. Therefore, demand presented a structural pattern: strong demand from traditional power sources and weak demand from the new energy sector. August Price Outlook Looking ahead to August 2026: On the supply side, domestic supply of grain-oriented silicon steel will edge down slightly. Major state-owned steel mills will basically continue high-load production, while some private enterprises will conduct minor maintenance, leaving overall supply broadly stable. Despite the price correction of grain-oriented silicon steel in July, most steel mills still enjoy decent profits. In addition, leading steel mills including Baowu lifted the August base price of grain-oriented silicon steel by RMB 50 per tonne, demonstrating obvious price-support sentiment and sound overall production enthusiasm. Deliveries of high-grade products remain steady; however, sufficient supply of conventional grades has brought inventory pressure to the market. On the demand side, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan UHV projects keep being launched. Transformer enterprises prioritize fulfilling supporting orders for UHV construction, and demand for high-grade grain-oriented silicon steel used in transformers for new energy grid interconnection stays resilient. Nevertheless, the impact of the high-temperature off-season will surface in August. Most downstream enterprises will only conduct inventory replenishment for rigid demand. The conversion of tender orders issued by State Grid and China Southern Power Grid is subject to time lags, and enterprises lack motivation for proactive stockpiling. Furthermore, India’s ongoing anti-dumping investigation against Chinese grain-oriented silicon steel has disrupted exports. Cargo diverted from overseas markets flows back and continuously hits the domestic market, putting prices under pressure. On the cost side, hot rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in August with limited upward momentum, and the monthly average price will continue to decline month-on-month. In summary, SMM forecasts that grain-oriented silicon steel prices will fluctuate on a weak trend in August 2026. High-grade grades will be relatively resilient against price falls, while conventional grades will face more prominent downward pressure. Data source statement: (Data in this report other than public information are all sourced from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are produced by the research team through comprehensive analysis and reasonable inference; they are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.) SMM reserves the final right of interpretation of the terms of this statement and the right to adjust and amend the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Mild Pullback in Inflation Eases Macro Anxiety, Production Resumptions Accelerate and Market Sentiment Turns]

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, national sulfuric acid (100% basis) output in June 2026 reached approximately 7.923 million tons (vs. 8.365 million in May, 8.948 million in April, and 9.637 million in March, showing a month‑on‑month decline). The year‑on‑year change for the month was about ‑10%. For the first half of the year (January–June), cumulative production totaled roughly 52.223 million tons, a year‑on‑year decrease of about ‑0.1% (down from +1.9% in the January–May period, mainly due to the sharp 10% drop in June). Production remains heavily concentrated in smelting and phosphate‑fertilizer provinces such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong—with Yunnan ranking first at about 1.24 million tons per month. Smelter acid (by‑product from copper/zinc processing) forms the supply backbone, while acid for phosphate fertilizer drives the bulk of demand.

Data Source Statement: All data in this report, other than publicly available information, are derived from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM’s internal database models. They are produced through comprehensive analysis and reasonable inference by the research team, are for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice. Shanghai Metals Market reserves the right of final interpretation of this statement and the right to adjust and amend its content based on actual circumstances.

[8.11 Morning Meeting Minutes] The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in July, due to imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM but rose 0.5% YoY. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY, and CPI maintained a mild uptrend overall. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in the early session, and as of the early session close it was at 129,570 yuan/mt, up 0.33%. Nickel prices are currently in a highly uncertain environment characterized by wild swings in policy expectations, macro headwinds, and geopolitical risks. In the short term, the market is expected to swing wildly, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract trading within a range of 125,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

SMM August 11: Metals market: Overnight, most base metals on both domestic and overseas markets rose, with only LME nickel, SHFE tin, and SHFE nickel falling; SHFE tin fell 0.46%, SHFE nickel fell 0.42%, and LME nickel fell 0.15%. LME aluminum, LME zinc, and LME tin all gained over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.99%, LME zinc up 1.01%, and LME tin up 1.08%, while the rest of the metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.59%, and cast aluminum main contract rose 0.28%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell, with iron ore up 0.7%, stainless steel down 0.62%, and hot-rolled coil and rebar both down around 0.2%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 1.14% and coke fell 0.11%. Overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 1.11% and COMEX silver jumped 3.75%. On the domestic market, SHFE gold rose 0.66% and SHFE silver gained 1.89%. As of 6:43 AM, August 11, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): July CPI up 0.5% YoY, PPI up 3.5% YoY] NBS data showed: In July, affected by international imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY, with the overall CPI maintaining a mild increase. Domestic demand in some sectors increased, but affected by imported and seasonal factors, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with the growth slowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In July 2026, the national PPI rose 3.5% YoY, down 0.7% MoM. The purchasing price index of industrial producers rose 5.5% YoY, down 1.0% MoM. From January to July on average, the PPI rose 1.8% from a year earlier, and the purchasing price index of industrial producers rose 2.8%. NBS chief statistician Dong Lijuan interpreted the July CPI and PPI data. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 99.81, and markets now look to Wednesday's July CPI report. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said inflation has yet to return to target and the Fed may need to raise rates multiple times. She said a single 25bp rate hike "would not have much impact on the economy," but she was reluctant to prejudge the exact number of hikes or the terminal rate. Hammack believed the current 3.50%-3.75% rate range had not exerted significant restraint on the economy, and firms were not yet cutting growth investment due to high rates, so "it's time to act." She said the longer they wait, the harder it will be to get inflation back to 2%. Hammack also stressed that the job market had no obvious issues and the July employment data would not change her focus on inflation. She argued that markets can only assist the Fed, not replace the Fed in taking action. At the Fed's July meeting, Hammack dissented against holding rates steady, preferring a 25bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged in September is 48.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 51.2%. For October, the probability of holding rates steady is 34.7%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 50.5%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike is 14.7%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today will see the release of China's July M2 money supply YoY (TBD), the US July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US ADP employment change for the week ended July 25, US July existing home sales annualized, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision on August 11, among others. In addition, the RBA will release its rate decision and monetary policy statement, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices surged on both sides of the Atlantic, with WTI up 5.27% and Brent up 5.18%. In news, Iran's Foreign Ministry reiterated that the US naval blockade against Iran is an act of aggression against Iran. (Jin10 Data APP) The key backdrop to Monday's oil rally was shaken market expectations for a return to normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports said Iran claimed its agreement with Oman on a new shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz had entered its final stage, but Iran also raised other conditions, leaving uncertainty over when normal commercial shipping would resume. Analysts said traders would not fully unwind the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil prices until they see "verifiable evidence" such as actual tanker transits or a formal deal. Reports pointed out that Iran had made demands including a US military withdrawal, sanctions relief, and war reparations for the reopening of Hormuz, leading the market to reassess the likelihood of a near-term return to normal shipping. This shifted the trading logic in the oil market. (Wall Street News) Additionally, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) hit a record low again last week, falling below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983. Data from the US Department of Energy (DOE) showed that for the week ended August 7, the US SPR fell by about 6.1 million barrels to 298.3 million barrels, not only breaching the 300-million-barrel mark but also setting a new low since 1983, continuing to approach the record low around 270 million barrels set in April 1982. This drawdown occurred against the backdrop of continued SPR releases by the US in recent years. The US released large volumes from the SPR in 2022 amid energy supply concerns triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and inventories have since stayed near historical lows. Although refilling began in recent years, the pace has not been enough to reverse the previous massive drawdown. Therefore, the significance of the current inventory level lies not merely in the loss of a few million barrels, but in the shrinking policy buffer that US strategic oil reserves can provide against future supply shocks. (Wall Street News)

SMM, August 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.52%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%, SHFE lead increased 0.41%, SHFE zinc dropped 1.68%, SHFE tin lost 1.34%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.33%. Additionally, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures edged up, while the most-traded alumina futures edged down. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.5%. The most-traded silicon metal futures gained 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 2.54%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore slipped 0.7%, rebar lost 0.47%, and hot-rolled coil dipped 0.15%. Stainless steel advanced 0.48%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.75% and the most-traded coke contract added 0.43%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper gained 0.3%, LME aluminum climbed 0.69%, LME lead rose 0.29%, and LME zinc edged down 0.09%. LME tin was up 0.52% and LME nickel was down 0.21%. In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.36%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold gained 1.5% and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 2.05%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.61% and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.05%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures fell 2.8% to 1,634 points. As of 11:43 on August 10, selected futures’ midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at parity, down 60 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at parity, down 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,945 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,835 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Guangdong inventory edged up after the weekend, mainly due to increased arrivals of imported copper... Macro Front Domestic side: [NBS: July CPI up 0.5% YoY, PPI up 3.5% YoY] NBS data showed that in July, due to imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY. Overall, CPI maintained a mild increase. China saw increased demand in some sectors, but affected by imported factors and seasonality, the producer price index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In July 2026, China's producer price index rose 3.5% YoY and fell 0.7% MoM. The industrial producer purchase price index rose 5.5% YoY and fell 1.0% MoM. From January to July, the average producer price index rose 1.8% YoY, and the average producer purchase price index rose 2.8% YoY. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician at the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for July 2026. [PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan on the day. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.72. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 55.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 44.4%. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by October is 40.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 47.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 11.8%. (Jin10 Data App) Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the US July headline CPI annual rate to fall to 3.4% from 3.5% in June; the core CPI annual rate is expected to fall to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month. Economists at Citigroup believe that, as expected, if there is a second consecutive month of softer inflation readings, it would mean more than one month of data pointing to cooling inflationary pressures, essentially ruling out a September rate hike. However, economists also expect a slight increase in core services inflation in July, with prices rising 0.3% MoM. Previously, the data was flat from May to June. Bank of America analysts said a rebound in core services indicators could still keep a September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid said that if the latter view prevails and inflation data comes in below expectations, then the Fed rate hike could be postponed to December or later. (Jin10 Data App) The US CPI report released on Wednesday is undoubtedly the most watched data this week. Economists generally expected the annual inflation rate to slow slightly, but core inflation to likely stay high, reflecting persistent price pressures in the services and housing sectors. Based on the latest data, the US Fed remained cautious, emphasizing the need for further confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward its 2% target before considering interest rate cuts. (Jin10 Data App) Data: Data for the Eurozone's August Sentix Investor Confidence Index and China's July M2 money supply YoY have been released today. On the radar: The Bank of Japan released a summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices rose in both benchmarks, with WTI up 0.67% and Brent up 0.91%. Stalled negotiations between Iran and the US over reopening the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices. Weekend talks between Iran and Oman failed to reach an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi explicitly stated that Tehran currently had no direct negotiations with the US. According to media reports, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the US met six conditions, including ending military and aggressive actions against Iran and its allies, and providing compensation to Iran. The US insisted that any reopening arrangement must guarantee unimpeded freedom of navigation without conditions like Iranian approvals, fees, or controls. Citigroup noted that attacks by Yemen's Houthi forces on Saudi-affiliated vessels near the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait continued, keeping risks beyond Hormuz also high. (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Weak nonfarm payrolls spark a tug-of-war between recession fears and rate adjustment expectations; some capital exits, SHFE tin pulls back]