SMM, August 6: Metal Markets: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market were almost all up. SHFE copper rose 0.4%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.23%. SHFE lead edged up. SHFE zinc rose 1.49%. SHFE tin rose 0.26%. SHFE nickel fell 2.1%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract edged down, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 1.36%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.12%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.65%. Ferrous metals were mostly in the green. Iron ore rose 2%, rebar rose 0.67%, and HRC rose 0.53%. Stainless steel fell 1.51%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.74%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.99%. On the overseas base metals market, as of 11:42, LME metals were almost all down. LME copper fell 0.36%, LME aluminum rose 0.17%, LME lead fell 0.16%, LME zinc fell 0.37%. LME tin fell 1.58%. LME nickel fell 1.9%. In precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.44%, while COMEX silver fell 0.05%. On the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 3.72%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.19%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.05%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 1.4%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping futures (Europe route) contract fell 0.63% to 1,651 points. As of 11:42 on August 6, selected futures midday prices: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 90 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper was at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,900 yuan/mt, up 910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and that of SX-EW copper was 107,820 yuan/mt, up 930 yuan/mt. In the spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly due to increased arrivals and weakening consumption... Macro Front China: [PBOC’s open market operations saw a net drain of 269.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 270.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. [China Gold Association: In H1 2026, increase in domestic gold ETF holdings fell 66.17% YoY] Data from the China Gold Association showed that the increase in domestic gold ETF holdings in H1 2026 was 28.677 mt, down 66.17% from H1 2025. By the end of June 2026, the open interest of gold ETFs in China stood at 276.529 mt. China increased its gold holdings by 40.12 mt in H1 2026, bringing its gold reserves to 2,346.45 mt by month-end June, ranking fifth globally. The country had added to its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months, Nov 2024-Jun 2026. (Jin10 Data APP) On August 6, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.7895 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 99.72. Cooling US ADP employment data contrasted with elevated ISM services costs, raising stagflation concerns. US ADP employment data missed expectations! The US ADP private payrolls increased by only 44,000 in July, the lowest this year, making Friday's non-farm payrolls data critical. US ADP private-sector employment rose by just 44,000 in July, a new low for the year and below expectations. The goods-producing sector was under pressure, signaling a cooling labour market. However, job-stayers' wages saw robust YoY growth of 7%, indicating persistent structural tightness. The market is focused on Friday's non-farm payrolls data; if it follows the same trend, it would confirm steady employment, supporting the Fed's continued focus on combating inflation. The US ISM Services PMI continued expanding in July, showing demand-side resilience but intensifying stagflation risks. The US ISM services index rose to 54.1 in July, a 0.1-point uptick from June but below the expected 54.5. The new orders index surpassed expectations to hit 57.2, and the prices paid index exceeded forecasts to reach 70.3, while the employment index fell short of expectations, dropping to 47.4 and into contraction territory. Rising costs alongside contracting employment presented stagflationary characteristics. The US Treasury kept its quarterly debt issuance size unchanged, with $40 trillion in debt pressure looming. The latest Treasury refunding statement maintained current auction sizes for coupon-bearing securities but changed the description for future issuance from "increases" to "adjustments," preserving flexibility for future policy shifts. The borrowing estimate for the current quarter was raised to $739 billion, with the total federal debt about to surpass $40 trillion. The Treasury continues to rely on short-term bills to bridge the gap, making financing costs more sensitive to interest rates. The market fears that delaying adjustments could trigger a larger shock from long-term debt issuance later. (From Wall Street Horizon APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone's June retail sales MoM, US July Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, and US June wholesale sales MoM, among other data. To watch: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on the economic outlook; 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver remarks. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, both benchmarks edged down, with US crude down 0.28% and Brent crude down 0.13%. The market is monitoring the progress of negotiations between Iran and Oman. Iran disclosed a new plan for Hormuz for the first time, saying the US had offered to talk but mere compliance with the deal was not enough to reopen the strait. Iran's deputy foreign minister said that arrangements concerning the strait should be decided solely by Iran and Oman through consultation, and Iran would never accept any external interference. Under the new arrangement, the current temporary shipping lanes in the strait will be closed, and a large number of vessels will be rerouted through Iranian territorial waters in the future. The report said that the proposed agreement with Oman grants Iran control over vessels entering the Strait of Hormuz, marking the biggest concession Iran has secured so far; Iran plans to charge a fee of 5%-7% of cargo value, while Oman has proposed a fee of about 3%, and the US opposes any charges. (From Wall Street Insights app) On August 5 local time, US President Trump said in a speech at an event in Las Vegas that oil prices had fallen recently and stabilized to some extent, "we may have to let it go up again," but he "hoped it wouldn't come to that." Trump did not elaborate on the meaning of this remark. An analysis by the Associated Press pointed out that although Trump has repeatedly promised that the war with Iran is about to end, oil prices usually rise again as conflicts between the two reignite. (CCTV International News) Spot Market Highlights: ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Lion Copper & Gold has announced an initial resource estimate for its Bear copper deposit in Nevada. The deposit hosts approximately 1 billion indicated tonnes grading 0.29% copper for 6.7 billion lb. of contained copper, together with 1.7 billion inferred tonnes grading 0.22% copper for 8.7 billion lb. Bear forms part of the larger Rio Tinto-backed Yerington project. Including existing reserves and resources, Lion Copper’s Nevada portfolio now contains approximately 19 billion lb. of copper, placing Yerington among the state’s largest undeveloped copper projects and ahead of Hudbay Minerals’ Mason project, which contains about 15.3 billion lb. According to the August 2025 prefeasibility study, Yerington hosts 506.6 million short tons of proven and probable reserves grading 0.21% copper for approximately 2.1 billion lb. of contained metal. The project is expected to produce around 120 million lb. of copper cathode annually over a 12-year mine life, with initial capital expenditure of US$724 million, a post-tax net present value of US$694 million at a 7% discount rate and an internal rate of return of 14.6%. Both Bear and Yerington are covered by Lion Copper’s earn-in agreement with Rio Tinto and its Nuton subsidiary. Nuton has the right to acquire a 65% interest in the project through a newly formed company and has been testing its proprietary heap-leach technology at Yerington since 2022.

SMM August 6 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals rose broadly. SHFE copper rose 0.56%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.29%. SHFE lead was flat at 15,640 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc rose 1.6%. SHFE tin rose 1.7%. SHFE nickel fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures rose 2.56%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.13%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 0.72%. Iron ore rose 1.85%. Rebar rose 0.74%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.53%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.94%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.56%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose broadly. LME copper rose 0.75%. LME aluminum rose 0.81%. LME lead was flat at $1,890/mt. LME zinc rose 2.31%. LME tin rose 2.1%. LME nickel edged down 0.06%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 3.74%, and COMEX silver rose 3.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold most-traded rose 3.58%, and SHFE silver most-traded rose 3.72%. OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong said, "The link between gold and oil prices remains, as oil prices have a huge impact on inflationary pressures in the global economy. If we can see a clear roadmap for further de-escalation of the (Middle East) situation, gold prices could continue to rise." Traders now expect a 59% probability of a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 policy meeting, down from 67% a day earlier. (Jin10 Data APP) Overnight closing quotes as of 7:11 on August 6: Macro front Domestic: [Foreign Ministry: Firmly Opposes US Abusing National Power to Unreasonably Suppress Chinese Enterprises] In response to reports that the US is drafting regulations to suppress Chinese enterprises, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated on the 5th when answering a reporter's question that China firmly opposes the US abusing its national power to unreasonably suppress Chinese enterprises. A reporter asked: It is reported that the US is drafting regulations to ban the import of China-made new-type optical transceiver modules and is preparing to impose additional tariffs and set a price floor on polysilicon and related products. Given the US's previous sanctions and restrictions on Huawei, how does China assess the planned US actions? What specific measures will be taken to protect the rights and interests of Chinese enterprises? Lin Jian said, China firmly opposes the US overstretching the concept of national security and abusing its national power to unreasonably suppress Chinese enterprises. Protectionism cannot boost US competitiveness. The US's actions severely hinder normal economic and trade exchanges between China and the US and are not in the interests of any party, including US enterprises and consumers. China will continue to firmly safeguard the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. (Xinhua News Agency) [Guangxi: Trade-in Policy Boosts Smart Home Appliance Consumption] With the implementation of national subsidies combined with local expansion policies coinciding with the summer consumption peak season, the Guangxi home appliance market welcomed a new round of consumption boom. During visits, it was found that the trade-in policy continued to gain momentum, smart home appliances accelerated their entry into millions of households, and consumption upgrading trends were evident. Since the beginning of this year, Guangxi's consumer goods trade-in program has subsidized 2.061 million units of digital and smart products, 95,000 vehicles, and 2.553 million units of home appliances, with total subsidy funds of 2.96 billion yuan, boosting commodity sales of 26.7 billion yuan. Among these, the proportion of county-level participants reached 45.2%, and the proportion of subsidy amount enjoyed in rural areas accounted for 37.1%, indicating rural consumption potential was being rapidly released. Hong Tao, director of the Institute of Business Economics at Beijing Technology and Business University, stated that the trade-in policy, on the basis of continued policy support, has upgraded to a "demand + experience" dual-drive. The national, local, and enterprise levels have established a triple subsidy linkage system, reducing household replacement costs and stimulating consumption vitality while helping the whole society save energy and reduce carbon, promoting the popularization of green and low-carbon lifestyles. (Xinhua News Agency) [CAAM Initiates Establishment of Autonomous Driving Industry Development Joint Committee] Hosted by CAAM, the 16th China Auto Forum was held in Jiading, Shanghai. During the forum, CAAM officially announced the initiation of the establishment of the "Autonomous Driving Industry Development Joint Committee" and held the launching ceremony. At the ceremony, CAAM stated that the Joint Committee will adhere to the principle of "taking safety as the bottom line, with innovation as the driving force, and using coordination to promote development," working with all industry parties to jointly promote the safe, orderly, and large-scale development of China's autonomous driving industry, contributing industrial strength to building an automotive powerhouse and cultivating new quality productive forces. The Joint Committee sincerely invites OEMs, autonomous driving solution providers, chip and sensor companies, software and communication firms, testing and certification agencies, universities, and research institutes, and other relevant industry chain entities to join in discussing development plans, building collaborative mechanisms, and sharing industrial achievements. (CAAM) [DCE: Coke Options to Be Listed for Trading from September 2, 2026 (Wednesday)] The DCE announced that coke options will be listed for trading starting September 2, 2026 (Wednesday). The position limit for coke options is 5,000 lots. Coke options and coke futures have separate position limits. The combined buy holdings of all call options and sell holdings of all put options, as well as the combined buy holdings of all put options and sell holdings of all call options, in an options contract of a certain month for non-futures company members and clients, must not exceed the position limit for the options product. Positions deemed as acting in concert shall be aggregated for calculation. [CPCA: Preliminary Estimates Show July National Passenger Car Market Retail Sales at 1.506 Million Units, Down 18% YoY] Preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed that from July 1 to 31, national passenger car market retail sales totaled 1.506 million units, down 18% YoY and down 6% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales reached 10.207 million units, down 20% YoY. National passenger car wholesale volumes by automakers from July 1 to 31 were 2.241 million units, up 1% YoY but down 5% MoM, with year-to-date cumulative wholesale volumes at 14.788 million units, down 5% YoY. (from Wall Street News APP) Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index extended the decline of the previous trading day to fall 0.17% to 99.69. US private employment growth in July was significantly below expectations, indicating that labor market momentum had cooled somewhat, but wage growth remained resilient, and the overall employment situation remained stable. Data released by ADP Research Institute on Wednesday showed that private sector employment increased by 44,000 in July, below the 65,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the lowest level this year, following a revised figure of 95,000 in June. The US government's non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday is closely watched by the market. If the data is confirmed, the current employment trend would support the Fed's continued focus on still-high inflation. (Wall Street News) Driven by a rebound in new orders and business activity, the US services sector maintained a stable expansion trend in July. Data released on Wednesday showed that the July ISM Services Index rose 0.1 point to 54.1, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. The new orders growth rate accelerated, and the gauge of business activity rose to a five-month high, indicating consumer demand remained resilient. However, rising service and material costs continued to pressure enterprises. As the temporary deal between the US and Iran broke down, driving crude oil and gasoline prices higher, the ISM Prices Paid Index surged to 70.3 in July. With persistently high costs squeezing corporate profits and affecting consumer spending, some companies may choose to delay hiring. The employment gauge of the institute indicated the most pronounced contraction in employment since March. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Governor Cook reiterated her stance: if inflation does not slow, she is prepared to raise rates , and warned that policymakers may not have the luxury of waiting for inflation to return to the 2% target. Although Cook supported the Fed's decision to hold rates steady at the July policy meeting, she warned that the longer inflation remains above the Fed's target, the harder it will be to tame. In a speech at an event in Alaska, Cook said, "If I don't see signs that inflation is sustainably declining soon, I am ready to act. With inflation above target for five consecutive years, the risk that inflation becomes entrenched in price- and wage-setting behaviour is rising, which would lead to more persistent inflation that is harder to address." But Cook stated that the fading impact of tariffs, the possibility of lower oil prices, and the easing of pressures related to the AI boom could provide a buffer for inflation, thereby avoiding the need to tighten policy . She said her top priority remains bringing inflation back to the Fed's target. In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that the Fed should now "start gradually raising" rates to lower inflation and avoid the need for more aggressive hikes in the future. Kashkari was one of three voting members who supported a 25-basis-point rate hike at last week's FOMC meeting. He said that with strong corporate earnings and resilient consumers and labor market, there is no evidence that monetary policy is clearly restrictive, making it time to start gradually raising rates. He stressed that this is not advocating for large rate hikes, but rather hoping for "small steps" to avoid the need for sharp policy tightening in the future if inflation becomes entrenched. He added that he is unsure what action the FOMC will take in September, and incoming data will play a key role. Meanwhile, Kashkari said that Fed Chairman Warsh did not pressure him, once telling him: "Do what you think is right for the economy." (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in September is 45.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 54.4%. For October, the probability of no change is 33.5%, a cumulative 25 bps hike is 52.1%, and a cumulative 50 bps hike is 14.5%. Macro: Today, data to be released include Switzerland's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone's June retail sales MoM, US July Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, and US June wholesale sales MoM. Focus on: Fed Governor Lisa Cook's speech on the economic outlook; 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly's speech. Crude oil: Overnight, oil futures showed mixed performance, with WTI falling 0.91% and Brent edging up 0.08%. Iran and Oman are expected to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calming oil prices. Wall Street News mentioned that Iran systematically disclosed more details about negotiations with Oman on new transit arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz for the first time and publicly explained the latest contacts between the US and Iran regarding the strait's reopening. On Wednesday, the 5th local time, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said that Iran and Oman are working on a new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz that differs from the past 60 years. According to the new route design, commercial vessels, whether entering or exiting the strait, would need to pass through Iranian territorial waters in some sections. According to CCTV News, he stressed that arrangements related to the strait should be decided solely by Iran and Oman, and Iran would never accept the involvement of any external forces. (Wall Street News) The US exported a record volume of distillate fuel overseas last week while domestic inventories fell again, indicating that the global scramble for diesel is increasingly drawing down US supplies. According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, distillate fuel exports rose to 1.9 million barrels per day last week, the highest level on record, surpassing the previous peak set in May. Distillate fuels mainly include diesel, heating oil, and other products. At the onset of the US-Iran war, the global diesel market was thrown into disarray. Global fuel supply was disrupted as crude and product tankers could not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, months of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining facilities further exacerbated supply pressures. This has made the US one of the few countries globally with sufficient diesel production capacity to churn out large volumes of fuel and export it overseas. US diesel exports have exceeded 1.5 million barrels per day for five consecutive weeks. Even with refiners running at full throttle to produce diesel, US fuel stockpiles are still falling. As of last week, distillate fuel inventories, on a seasonally adjusted basis, had dropped to the lowest level for the same period since 1996. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM, August 5: Expectations for Middle East geopolitics are shifting toward easing, oil prices have pulled back sharply for two consecutive trading days, and market concerns about inflation have cooled. Expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September have pulled back, with multiple positive factors resonating to drive precious metals futures and stocks to strengthen together. In the futures market: As of around 17:12 on August 5, COMEX gold was up 1.7% at $4,223.1/oz; SHFE gold main contract was up 3.1% at 910.4 yuan/g; COMEX silver was up 2.53% at $61.77/oz; SHFE silver main contract was up 7.08% at 15,105 yuan/kg; silver T+D was up 5.8% at 14,988 yuan/kg. Platinum main contract futures were up 9.18% at 441.15 yuan/g; palladium main contract futures were up 8.51% at 329.65 yuan/g. In the stock market: As of market close on August 5, the precious metals sector was up 7.87%. In individual stocks: Sengda Resources and Sichuan Gold hit the daily limit up, while Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver&Tin, and Shanjin International were among the top gainers. News [South Korea's Central Bank Plans to Purchase Domestically Refined Gold Bars for the First Time in 13 Years] According to South Korean media reports, the Bank of Korea said on Monday that it will cooperate with LS MnM, the Korea Exchange (KRX), and the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years through over-the-counter transactions, as heightened geopolitical risks have increased the need to diversify foreign exchange reserves. LS MnM and Korea Zinc produce about 40 to 45 mt of gold annually as a by-product of smelting, of which about 10% is exported. The central bank stated that if relevant enterprises apply, it will consider using the trading and settlement system of the KRX and the storage facilities being prepared by the KSD to purchase some of the gold intended for export. The central bank said it will arrange bulk transactions after prior consultations on price and quantity to limit the impact on domestic gold prices, and that the new channel should reduce foreign exchange risks, since previous overseas purchases were all paid in US dollars. Additionally, the central bank also stated that it purchased a small amount of gold ETFs in Q2. Separately, it was reported that as of July, its gold holdings remained unchanged at 104.4 mt, while South Korea's foreign exchange reserves at the end of June stood at $427.36 billion, including gold reserves worth $4.79 billion. [World Gold Council: Gold Investment Demand Expected to Remain Positive] The World Gold Council report noted that in the remainder of 2026, investment demand is expected to be the main driver of gold demand growth, and will be increasingly supported by over-the-counter trading activities and Asian investment demand. Central banks will remain key gold buyers. High gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand, but the response of gold ore production and recycled gold supply is expected to be relatively mild. Gold investment demand is expected to remain positive for the rest of 2026. OTC activity and Asian investment demand are expected to play a larger role, while Western gold ETF flows may continue to be sensitive to US Treasury real yields, Fed monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar. Although consumer spending has remained relatively resilient, high gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand; technology-related gold demand is expected to further benefit from AI investment, but downside risks are accumulating. (Jinshi Data) [Zijin Mining: Terminates Acquisition of United Gold, Plans to Subscribe for 9.2% Equity] Zijin Mining announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that on January 26, 2026, its controlled subsidiary Zijin Gold International signed an Arrangement Agreement with United Gold, under which Zijin Gold International would acquire all outstanding common shares of United Gold for a cash price of C$44 per share, with a total consideration of approximately C$5.5 billion (approximately $4 billion). However, after comprehensive evaluation, both parties believed that certain closing conditions precedent could not be fully satisfied or waived by the deadline stipulated in the acquisition agreement (which had been extended to July 29, 2026) or within a reasonable period thereafter. The parties agreed to terminate the acquisition, and neither party is required to pay a termination fee or any other fees to the other. Meanwhile, the parties separately entered into a Share Subscription Agreement, under which Zijin Gold International intends to subscribe for 12.8 million common shares (representing approximately 9.2% of the enlarged share capital post-issuance) placed by United Gold at a cash price of C$32.55 per share, with a total subscription amount of C$416.6 million, equivalent to approximately $295 million. [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 1.7 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan, up 54%-61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 347.48%-436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 200 million yuan to 240 million yuan, up 347.48%-436.98% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 80 million yuan to 116 million yuan, up 490.44%-756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 81.06%-122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 570 million yuan to 700 million yuan, up 81.06%-122.36% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 272 million yuan to 402 million yuan, down 2.03%-33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected to Rise 280.16%-333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 500 million to 570 million yuan, up 280.16%-333.39% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 490 million to 580 million yuan, up 172.96%-223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected at 4.1-4.6 Billion Yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On August 5, the morning ex-factory reference average price of SMM #1 silver was 14,556 yuan/kg, up 2.38% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, downstream demand remained sluggish this month, with limited new orders overall. The strengthening silver price further weakened downstream purchase willingness; market transactions mainly relied on support from banking institutions, with deals concentrated around parity, and traders were reluctant to quote. Morning quotations in Shanghai were mostly at parity to a premium of up to 10 yuan/kg against TD; in Shenzhen, some national standard goods were quoted around parity. Although low-priced goods existed, they did not significantly disturb spot trade. Today, the market quoted a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE contract 2610. Overall, expectations for a Strait of Hormuz agreement heated up, inflation concerns eased briefly, and precious metals recovered slightly. In the spot market, the rise in silver prices further suppressed demand, with orders remaining sluggish and trading staying thin. Voices Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: CITIC Securities research report stated that this year gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly, but we believe gold is still in a major bull market, with reasons including the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, irreconcilable geopolitical rifts under deglobalization, and continued gold purchases by global central banks providing a floor. Therefore, we think this round of decline in gold prices is merely a temporary correction within the bull market. The current pullback has approached historical extremes, and the $4,000/oz area is highly likely to be the bottom zone for this round. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from a drag to a boost, the Fed's monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and coupled with surging US military spending driving up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an uptrend within the year. Deutsche Bank precious metals strategist Hsueh Michael stated that the "explosive rally phase" for gold prices that began in August 2024 is not yet over, and maintains the forecast of gold at $4,600/oz in Q4 2026. This assessment rests on a triple framework of fair value models, statistical tests, and official demand data, discounting the significant downside risk implied by commodity price ratios. (Zhitong Finance) A research report from CICC Wealth Futures shows: oil prices pulled back, gold rebounded, and currently, the yen's disruption causing moves in the US dollar index is a new disturbance factor, which is expected to have a relatively limited impact on gold price trends. The biggest pressure on gold currently still comes from oil prices. CICC Wealth Futures believes that if oil prices are not excessively strong, the probability of gold maintaining a fluctuating trend or drifting higher is relatively high. Everbright Futures' outlook for August suggests that the short-term gold price trend depends on the evolving US-Iran situation. If the conflict persists or its spillover expands, market sentiment may weaken again, and under liquidity risk expectations, gold prices may continue to underperform. However, if a substantive breakthrough in negotiations occurs, gold prices could stabilize in the short term and undergo a recovery and rebound. At that point, if domestic and overseas financial markets show a synchronized recovery, it can be further confirmed. Nevertheless, it can be expected that with support from rigid central bank purchases and allocation demand, even if a pullback occurs again, the downside should be relatively limited. Additionally, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at the end of August, Warsh may outline a medium-term policy framework. Before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key verification indicator. Overall, gold is likely in a stage of bottom consolidation and sentiment repair, and we hold a cautiously optimistic view. The core risk is that the US-Iran conflict once again pushes oil prices above $90/oz, a significant rebound in US inflation data far exceeding expectations, and the evolving probability of a September rate hike continuing to suppress market sentiment. However, judging from the performance of overseas financial markets and oil prices, a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict is largely unsupported. A Reuters survey showed that after gold prices pulled back significantly from their record highs in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, though most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. In the survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for gold prices in 2026 was $4,509/oz. That figure is down from $4,916 three months ago and marks the first downgrade in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 is $4,610, compared to a forecast of $5,100 in the previous poll. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595/oz in January, but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2 as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and boosted rate hike expectations, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey from ING noted that gold prices rose on Monday, as a sharp decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns and pressured the US dollar and US bond yields. The large drop in oil prices on Monday alleviated inflation worries and the prospect of further monetary tightening. The move came after a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and bond yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Markets are now focused on the Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the interest rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold prices should continue to be supported near current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could limit further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank has lowered its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce, and now expects platinum to reach $2,000 per troy ounce by year-end, down from a previous forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in the third quarter, despite historically being a seasonal peak for stockpiling. The reasons include ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment and local price discounts curbing demand for fresh imports. However, Citi maintains its short-term gold price target of $4,500 for 0–3 months. This target, the bank said, assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed; in the short term there remain many risks that could push gold prices lower again, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish stance by the Fed. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on the medium to long-term outlook for gold. She noted in her comments that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with gold stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong surging around 20% over three days – a positive signal. “We believe confidence in gold is starting to improve and continue to expect that prices will rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. UBS’s global team remains upbeat on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 per ounce by end-2027. She indicated that the key events to watch going forward are the Fed’s policy tone at the FOMC meeting at the end of July and further developments in the Middle East. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical demand for the metal and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market. These analysts added that while gold prices face short-term headwinds from the US Fed's tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, after months of outflows from exchange-traded funds, gold investment positions look thin, suggesting limited room for further declines. A high-interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from the US Fed's tightening expectations, central bank purchases are expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains robust, with the bank estimating that central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May and the three-month average of monthly purchases at 67 mt, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. Goldman Sachs analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will continue for many years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases will be 50 mt this year and 40 mt next year. (Jin10 Data) Kim Soojin, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price action suggests that the market is placing more weight on the likelihood that US interest rates will stay high for longer rather than on gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to add to its gold positions again at an appropriate time after reducing them earlier this year, believing gold's long-term momentum remains strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said recently, "We plan to add to our gold positions again; the question is just the timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level from January to February this year, when gold's multi-year bull market abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic for a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks are truly committed to bringing inflation back down," "but I don't think we're in that world right now." Samson also noted that continued central bank gold purchases, a key driver of the previous bull market, will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep correction in H1, gold prices near $4,000 are gradually showing signs of bottoming out, with further upside only awaiting event catalysts. It recommends building positions in batches near $4,000 on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. Key allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, providing a notable margin of safety. After a deep pullback in H1, current valuations of gold mining companies have retreated sharply from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, aside from a valuation repair rally, they are expected to further benefit from the price elasticity driven by rising gold prices. Second, earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an "amplifier" for gold prices—the cost of gold mining is rigid, so rising gold prices directly translate into profit growth, making earnings elasticity far exceed the gold price increase itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities points out: from a medium-term perspective, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of "inflation stickiness and resilience exceeding expectations → extended period of high rates by the US Fed → repeated intensification of rate hike expectations within the year," and gold's price center remains dominated by US real bond yields and the US dollar index, with the overall market likely to consolidate on a subdued note. Ceasefire consultations in the Middle East are currently mired in back-and-forth maneuvering, with the two sides significantly diverging on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and toll rules for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The recurring geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further entrench inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed's tightening policy stance. Meanwhile, the simultaneous rise in the US dollar index and US bond yields is creating a dual suppression effect; coupled with gold's safe-haven attributes temporarily yielding to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch over the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed’s interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s bullish logic has not weakened but has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of US fiscal deficits, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying major-country competition are weakening the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets toward diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risks, geopolitical fragmentation risks, and risks of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further confirms the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) The late-cycle US economy faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a growth slowdown. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to an economic slowdown or is forced to maintain higher rates for longer due to sticky inflation, gold possesses strong long-term allocation value: the former is favorable for declining real interest rates, while the latter strengthens demand for safe-haven and credit-risk protection. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and its price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

According to SMM's tracking survey data, daily average pig iron production in July fell by more than 20,000 mt compared with June. The average daily hot metal production in August is expected to be on par with July, facing significant resistance to growth.

[SMM Express] Researchers have identified that trace palladium impurities, rather than platinum itself, may be responsible for high catalytic activity observed in several platinum-based systems, highlighting the importance of accurate PGM identification in catalyst development. The study, “Pitfalls in Platinum Catalysis..” investigated platinum catalysts used in important carbonylation reactions. Through inductively coupled plasma (ICP) analysis and controlled experiments with ultrapure platinum, researchers found that palladium contamination at levels as low as 10 parts per million (ppm) was sufficient to drive the targeted transformations, while pure platinum demonstrated significantly lower catalytic efficiency. The findings challenge previous assumptions regarding platinum’s role in these reactions and highlight the need for rigorous metal purity verification when evaluating noble metal catalysts. Palladium-based catalysts remain widely used in industrial carbonylation processes, including the production of methyl propionate for methacrylate polymer applications, due to their high activity and selectivity. The study does not indicate an immediate change in platinum or palladium market fundamentals. However, it reinforces palladium’s significant catalytic capability and may influence future research into PGM catalyst optimisation. As industries continue to seek cost-effective and efficient alternatives given palladium price volatility, understanding of platinum and palladium performance could affect long-term catalyst selection strategies.

US President Trump said in an interview with Fox News on the 4th that the Strait of Hormuz will open "soon," or Iran will be hit "very hard." Regarding engagement with Iran, Trump said: "Our talks are going very well. Iran doesn't want to admit it, and you know, that's a little embarrassing. You just went out and said we had great talks, and then someone in Iran jumps up and says, 'We never met.' That's just false. They want to make a deal." When asked how the US would respond if Iran walks away from negotiations again, Trump replied: "If they go back again, they'll be hit very hard." But he added, "I hope it's not needed."

Mining operators across Zambia are formalizing their policy demands ahead of the upcoming national elections, calling on the government to strengthen incentives for local mineral processing, greenfield exploration, and power generation expansion. Industry leaders emphasize that these measures are vital to achieving the national benchmark of tripling annual copper output to 3 million tonnes. This push coincides with a tight physical market, where surging demand for critical metals in electric vehicles, power networks, and construction has driven benchmark copper futures up over 40% in the past year to $14,000 per tonne. Fiscal stabilization and closer engagement with miners have already drawn over $10 billion in committed investment to Zambia since the 2021 election. However, expanding long-term output hinges on resolving critical infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the Zambia Chamber of Mines, maintaining a robust exploration pipeline via greenfield spending and licensing reforms is essential to secure real industry growth. Meanwhile, unintegrated producers continue to advocate for export duty relief on copper concentrates. Industry executives estimate that Zambia needs at least 2,000 megawatts of additional generation capacity to prevent severe power shortages from capping planned mine expansions. Because mining remains the country's economic backbone, contributing 9% of GDP, 72% of export earnings, and nearly half of government revenue, analysts expect general policy continuity for foreign direct investment following the polls.

In July 2026, China’s NEV sales are estimated to reach 1.47 million units. B secured the top spot with monthly sales exceeding 410,000 units, while Leap Motor’s monthly sales topped 100,000 units for the first time, setting a record high. Over the same period, B’s exports reached 179,800 units, up 124.3% YoY, with cumulative exports nearing 970,000 units.

August 3, 2026 The precious metals markets remained highly volatile over the past several days while continuing to trade within what has ultimately been a relatively narrow range. Gold began the week with an upside gap and rallied to US$4,116, only to retreat to US$3,996 shortly before yesterday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Following the announcement, prices rebounded back to US$4,116 within hours before coming under renewed pressure late in the session and during early Asian trading, falling to US$4,042 and US$4,028, respectively. Overall, however, little has changed compared to last week's close of US$4,054. Silver traded within a range of US$56.62 to US$60.09 over the same period. Both metals remain locked in an uncertain sideways consolidation as they continue searching for a clear bottom and a decisive trend reversal. Two Time Horizons, One Market The precious metals market continues to be influenced by two very different time horizons. On one hand, a structural demand story unfolding over many years—driven largely by China—continues to provide strong fundamental support for gold. On the other hand, Federal Reserve policy, bond market developments, corrections in technology and semiconductor stocks, and the escalating conflict with Iran continue to generate short-term shocks that affect not only gold and silver but virtually every financial market sector. The Fed Holds Steady While the Market Tightens Financial Conditions This tension between long-term fundamentals and short-term volatility was highlighted once again by the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting. More noteworthy than the decision itself, however, was the reaction in the bond market. While two-year Treasury yields declined, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to approximately 5.21%, its highest level in nearly two decades. Fed Chair Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance, instead pointing to the increases already taking place across the yield curve. The result is an unusual situation: although the Fed has left its policy rate unchanged, the bond market is effectively tightening monetary conditions on its own through rising long-term yields. Real Yields Versus Currency Debasement For gold and silver, this environment creates conflicting forces. Rising long-term real interest rates traditionally weigh on precious metals, while declining confidence in long-duration government bonds and growing concerns about fiscal deficits and currency debasement strengthen gold's appeal as an alternative store of value. Geopolitics Continues to Fuel Inflation Concerns The already complicated picture has been further intensified by the military escalation between the United States and Iran. Following Iranian missile attacks on U.S. positions, CENTCOM responded with strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets. Brent crude oil briefly climbed above US$94 per barrel amid concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments normally pass. Higher energy prices continue to increase inflationary pressures worldwide, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious approach toward monetary policy. Selling Pressure from Financially Stressed Holders While geopolitical risks continue to support inflation concerns, they have also created selling pressure in the gold market. Financially strained Gulf states and countries such as Turkey have reportedly sold portions of their gold reserves to stabilize their currencies. These transactions temporarily increase supply but do not alter the longer-term demand trend. Instead, they represent a transfer of gold from weaker holders to long-term strategic buyers, particularly in Asia. China's Strategic Gold Accumulation Remains the Dominant Long-Term Story Zentralbank-Goldreserven China vs USA, vom 27. Juli 2026. © BMO, Gold.de The recent market turbulence has overshadowed what remains the dominant long-term narrative: China's systematic accumulation of gold. According to a recent BMO analysis, China has accumulated approximately 29,500 tonnes of above-ground gold since 1949, compared with an estimated 32,200 tonnes held by the United States. Remarkably, 93% of China's total gold accumulation has occurred during the past 25 years. The People's Bank of China officially reports gold reserves of around 2,300 tonnes, but discrepancies between reported central bank purchases and actual gold flows from the United Kingdom and Switzerland since 2022 suggest China's true holdings could be closer to 5,200 tonnes. Two Targets, One Timeline Based on these estimates, BMO outlines two potential milestones. China would require approximately 2,911 additional tonnes to match U.S. official central bank reserves, a target that could be reached in roughly five years at the current pace of purchases. To match total U.S. above-ground gold holdings, China would need only around 2,700 tonnes, a level that could potentially be reached in as little as two years. Shanghai and Hong Kong Are Emerging as a New Pricing Hub Globale Gold Handelsplätze, vom 27. Juli 2026. © BMO, Gold.de At the same time, China continues expanding the Shanghai Gold Exchange while strengthening Hong Kong as an offshore gold trading center through new clearing systems, the Delivery Connect program, and the reintroduction of U.S. dollar-denominated gold futures. Together, these initiatives are creating a second global pricing hub alongside the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and New York's COMEX, while supporting the broader internationalization of the renminbi. Gold Remains Resilient Despite Strong Headwinds Despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop, gold has shown remarkable resilience. The actively traded August futures contract gained 0.91% yesterday to close at US$4,065.50 , a respectable performance considering both the geopolitical escalation and the Federal Reserve meeting. BMO continues to forecast additional upside during the second half of 2026, targeting approximately US$4,750 by the fourth quarter once inflation concerns related to the conflict begin to ease. The Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August is widely viewed as the next major catalyst. Silver Caught Between Conflicting Forces Silver currently finds itself in a particularly difficult position. Historically, silver follows gold's direction, often with considerably higher beta. If gold successfully maintains support around US$4,000 and resumes its recovery, silver could potentially deliver even stronger gains. Unlike gold, however, silver lacks one critical pillar of the China investment thesis: there is no structural central bank demand providing long-term support. Instead, silver remains much more dependent on two other factors—the direction of real interest rates and industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, which has remained relatively resilient despite inflationary pressures and higher energy costs. Silver Forms a Potential Wedge Pattern Silber in US-Dollar, Tageschart vom 17. Juli 2026. © Gold.de Since late June, silver has been attempting to establish a slow, narrow and rather confusing bottoming formation. Prices remain well below both the declining 50-day moving average at US$63.99 and the relatively flat 200-day moving average at US$70.71. At the same time, bears have repeatedly tested the broad support zone between US$55 and US$60 without achieving any meaningful downside follow-through, leaving a potentially bullish wedge pattern intact. Daily stochastic indicators have yet to generate meaningful upside momentum and continue to drift sideways, reflecting the fading media attention toward precious metals and the typically quieter summer trading environment. Nevertheless, prospects for a recovery remain favorable. Seasonally, silver has historically performed well between late June and early September, making a return toward the rapidly declining 50-day moving average appear entirely plausible later this summer. Given the growing number of bearish forecasts calling for gold to fall toward US$3,500, the market could just as easily remember that precious metals remain within a long-term secular bull market. Only six months ago, gold and silver had outperformed nearly every other asset class. A sudden shift in market sentiment could therefore transform the current setup into what many investors would view as an attractive "buy-the-dip" opportunity. Conclusion: Silver's Bottoming Process Remains Complicated The precious metals sector continues to move through a complex period in which long-term structural trends are colliding with short-term macroeconomic shocks. While gold remains fundamentally supported by China's ongoing accumulation strategy and growing concerns about currency debasement, rising long-term real yields, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, weakness in technology stocks, and escalating geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on near-term price action. Silver, meanwhile, remains trapped between US$56 and US$60, searching for a decisive trend reversal. Seasonal patterns and the emerging wedge formation continue to support the case for a recovery later this summer. The central investment thesis for the second half of the year remains unchanged. Once inflation concerns related to the geopolitical conflict begin to ease and interest-rate uncertainty subsides, gold could resume its advance. Given silver's historically higher beta, it would likely outperform during such a move. Unlike gold, however, silver lacks the powerful structural support provided by central bank buying and therefore remains more dependent on industrial demand—particularly from the solar sector—and on the direction of real interest rates. Overall, the current consolidation can still be viewed as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity within an ongoing secular bull market, although investors continue to await more convincing technical confirmation, such as a sustained move back above silver's 50-day moving average. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-a-complex-bottoming-process-continues