[SMM Analysis: Stripping Away Macro Noise: Analysis of the Substantive Impact of Peru's Emergency Decree on Tin Supply]

"Tin" Leads the Future: Industrial Transformation and Value Reshaping in a New Cycle **Conference Background** Currently, the global tin industry stands at a historic turning point, where traditional cyclical logic has been fundamentally disrupted and strategic value has become fully prominent. The tin market in 2026 presents an unprecedented complex landscape and profound transformation: **I. Deep Restructuring of the Supply-Demand Pattern with Unprecedented Elevation of Strategic Attributes** The global static reserve-to-production ratio of tin resources is only 14 years, with scarcity becoming increasingly prominent. The supply side faces "triple pressures": repeated setbacks in Myanmar's production resumptions, continued policy tightening in Indonesia, and elevated geopolitical risks in the DRC — resource constraints have become the new normal. Meanwhile, the demand structure has undergone a fundamental shift, and tin has become a strategic resource connecting traditional manufacturing with the digital future. **II. Price System Breaking Historical Records with the Industrial Ecosystem Facing Reshaping** In early 2026, SHFE tin prices broke through 470,000 yuan/mt, hitting a record high. This price breakthrough is not only a reflection of supply-demand imbalance but also a hallmark of the value reassessment of the tin industry. Traditional trade models, risk management systems, and supply chain collaboration approaches all urgently require innovative breakthroughs. **III. Technology-Driven and Green Transformation Fostering a New Symbiotic Ecosystem** Digital and intelligent technologies are deeply empowering the tin industry chain. The global green transformation requires the tin industry to upgrade toward low-carbonisation and circular economy models, making secondary tin recycling and green smelting processes an inevitable path. All segments of the industry chain must shift from competition to collaboration, building an open, resilient, and innovative symbiotic system. Against this backdrop, August 19-21, 2026 , Changsha, Hunan , the 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference will bring together global industry elites for in-depth discussions. Huaxun Group Co., Ltd. (Russia) will attend this grand event, joining industry peers to explore industry development trends and work together to propel the tin industry to new heights. Click the to register now. Join us in witnessing and participating in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and together create a brilliant new chapter! As a benchmark cross-border comprehensive service provider between China and Russia, the group focuses on bulk commodity trade supply chains while expanding into IT, telecommunications, and energy equipment sectors. Leveraging resource integration across both China and Russia, a mature logistics and after-sales service system, and its membership in the Russia-China Business Council, the group has established efficient government-enterprise cooperation channels between the two countries. The group's Russian headquarters is located on the 63rd floor of the Federation Tower in Moscow, with a dedicated office in China, enabling efficient coordination between the two locations to provide solid support for cross-border operations. Shenzhen Yixingtongyuan Trading Co., Ltd. , as the group's China service window, specializes in serving China-Russia bulk commodity trade, helping Chinese enterprises connect with premium Russian supply chains, and serving as a reliable partner in China-Russia cross-border trade with professionalism and efficiency. With deep expertise in the non-ferrous metal sector, we possess direct upstream procurement advantages and can steadily supply large quantities of metal resources including tin, lead, zinc, silver, copper, antimony, selenium, lead ore powder, zinc ore powder, and tin ore powder. A benchmark comprehensive service provider for China-Russia cross-border cooperation. The Group focuses deeply on bulk commodity trade and supply chain business, while expanding its layout into IT, telecommunications and energy equipment sectors.Leveraging integrated resources from both China and Russia, a mature logistics and after-sales service system, and its membership status in the Russia-China Business Council, the Group builds an efficient cooperation channel for government and enterprise exchanges between the two countries.Headquartered on the 63rd floor of Moscow Federation Tower in Russia, the Group has dedicated office institutions in China, achieving efficient linkage between the two locations to provide solid support for cross-border businesses.As the China regional service window of the Group, Shenzhen Yihang Tongyuan Trading Co., Ltd. specializes in China-Russia bulk commodity trade, assisting domestic enterprises in connecting with high-quality Russian supply chains, and has become a reliable partner for China-Russia cross-border trade with professionalism and high efficiency.With in-depth cultivation in the non-ferrous metal sector, we boast direct upstream procurement advantages and can steadily supply large quantities of resources including tin, lead, zinc, silver, copper, antimony and selenium. Contact Information Qu Shaowei / Qu Shaowei 13756081555 qushaowei@h-xgroup.com www.h-xgroup.ru Long Press to Scan the QR Code to Register Now 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference

According to a report by the Burma News International (BNI) on May 4, 2026, a mining site near Three Pagoda Pass (the Three Pagodas area) in Myanmar was recently hit by an airstrike. Miners have fled to the town of Three Pagodas for shelter, and mining operations have been forced to halt. Informed market sources suggest that the Three Pagodas area primarily produces lead and antimony ore. Given the current situation, resuming antimony production after a ceasefire could take a considerable amount of time. Moreover, the challenges facing mining operations are not limited to the impact of war and the upcoming rainy season — they may also include shortages of fuel and explosives.

Risk appetite has improved notably in the market recently, and SHFE tin rode the momentum to rally sharply in succession. Futures prices have successfully breached the 400,000 mark, hitting a new high in over two months, with extremely strong performance. What factors are supporting the tin price rally that is in full swing? Can the bullish stance continue? Middle East Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Recovers Since the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions in late February, affected by changes in inflation expectations caused by wild swings in energy prices, global equities and most commodity prices have exhibited a seesaw effect with energy products. Recently, the Middle East situation has been rapidly evolving, market risk appetite has fluctuated accordingly, and SHFE tin futures—whose price movements have always been susceptible to sentiment—have seen significantly amplified fluctuations. During the holiday, the US pushed the so-called operation to clear stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran conflict escalated sharply, the ceasefire agreement was in jeopardy, and market risk appetite weakened at one point. However, after the holiday, positive news from US-Iran negotiations emerged repeatedly. US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of May 5 (Eastern Time), stating that the "Freedom Plan" to "clear" vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term. On May 6, Trump expressed optimism multiple times about reaching a deal with Iran, saying the US and Iran had "productive" dialogue over the past 24 hours and that a final agreement was "very likely." Additionally, according to multiple White House officials and informed sources, both sides are extremely close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding. Based on the current statements from both sides, hopes for ending the conflict are rising, energy prices have pulled back sharply, risk appetite has improved notably, providing fertile ground for tin price gains. Semiconductor Stocks Launch a Bull Feast, Optimism Spills Over It is currently earnings season for publicly listed firms. The latest quarterly results and outlooks from US chip giants have been quite impressive, with Intel, Micron, and others surging collectively, and the US Nasdaq index hitting new highs repeatedly. South Korea's two memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have soared sharply, while A-share listed Cambricon touched a high of 1,966 yuan, reflecting the resonance between booming industry performance and macro tailwinds. Since tin is an indispensable material in chip manufacturing and packaging, against the backdrop of semiconductor stocks rallying collectively and the computing-power metal narrative continuing to unfold, demand expectations for the tin market are highly optimistic. Leading tin stocks surged sharply on the boost, and driven by futures-equity linkage sentiment, capital has flooded in. SHFE tin saw significant increases in open interest over two consecutive days while rising, and futures prices are now just one step away from the previous high. Demand Side Rich in Narratives, Social Inventory Running at Low Levels Returning to tin's own supply-demand fundamentals, structural tightness on the ore side continues to constrain tin ingot output, and policy uncertainties along with supply disruption news from major overseas producing regions frequently impact tin prices. Currently, Myanmar's production resumptions are progressing slower than expected, and with the rainy season approaching, production may remain constrained. Although Indonesia's export quotas have increased somewhat, policy remains unstable, and recently a phased supply gap has emerged due to export license renewal procedures. Customs data showed that tin ore imports exceeded 17,000 mt in each of the first three months of this year, all with significant YoY increases. China's refined tin output is in the ramp-up stage, and institutions will also successively release April production data soon, so supply recovery warrants continued attention. The tin market's demand side has relatively strong support, and under the computing-power metal concept, there are many tradeable themes that frequently provide upward momentum for tin prices. Since AI servers and other high-end chips require 3-5 times more tin solder than ordinary servers, the semiconductor industry's prosperity has become the main driver supporting tin price trends. Currently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at a high level of prosperity, having steadily broken through the 10,000-point mark, and global semiconductor sales also grew significantly in Q1, with tin solder demand expected to continue growing. NEV side, although growth has slowed down somewhat, NEV production and sales have rebounded quickly, and their tin consumption demand remains relatively stable. PV side, new PV installations are not expected to grow, but policy floor expectations exist. Meanwhile, traditional production and sales expectations for home appliances, consumer electronics, and other sectors are also relatively weak, and tin chemicals are unlikely to see much additional demand growth. During the traditional peak demand season of March-April, China's tin market performed moderately, with tin ingot social inventory declining to a nearly four-month low, reflecting seasonal destocking. However, with the recent sharp rally in tin prices, spot premiums for tin in China have narrowed significantly, and the sustainability of demand under high prices still warrants attention going forward. Overall, the recent tin price surge was truly a confluence of favorable timing, conditions, and sentiment—support from the macro front, sentiment, and supply-demand fundamentals were all indispensable. Currently, geopolitical tensions have eased, the constraint on risk assets has loosened, the prosperity of global semiconductor-related stocks continues, and optimistic sentiment still easily transmits to SHFE tin futures. The low open interest characteristic of SHFE tin also amplifies futures price fluctuations. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation is prone to reversals, and after the semiconductor sector has repeatedly hit new highs, one should also be wary of potential pullback risks—caution is advised before rushing to buy amid continuous price rises. (Webstock Inc.)

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, on the inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area registered 188,300 mt after the holiday, up 6,500 mt WoW, while inventory in the Jiangsu area was 41,700 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW. The destocking trend in social inventory saw its first inflection point, shifting to a slight inventory buildup during the holiday period, though the increase was not yet significant, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of subsequent inventory buildup. Supply side, although the import window remained profitable, logistics disruptions in Africa led to reduced import arrivals, limiting short-term incremental spot cargo circulation. Demand side, after the rise in copper prices, end-user purchase willingness weakened, compounded by suppliers holding back from selling, spot premiums rose, and market trading was thin on both sides. Overall, under the multiple factors of high prices suppressing demand, the initial emergence of an inventory inflection point, suppliers holding back from selling, and reduced import arrivals, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

SMM April 30 — Recently, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data for January-March 2026. According to the latest data, China's imports of thorium ore and concentrates from January to March 2026 totaled 17,363 mt, down 5% YoY. March imports were 3,336 mt, down 21% MoM but up 47% YoY. Currently, as China's light rare earth separation enterprises experienced significant production cuts and suspensions in Q1 this year, market demand for thorium ore and concentrates declined notably. Actual transaction prices also continued to fall, reducing ore traders' enthusiasm for imports, which in turn led to the YoY decline in actual imports of thorium ore and concentrates. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of unlisted rare earth oxides from January to March 2026 totaled approximately 21,607 mt, up 242% YoY. In terms of reasons, on one hand, at the beginning of last year, rare earth ore exports from Myanmar — the primary source country for unlisted rare earth oxide imports — were affected by a series of negative factors, resulting in relatively low exports of unlisted rare earth oxides during the same period last year. On the other hand, from January to March this year, changes in tax policies in Myanmar prompted some ore traders to rush imports, causing a notable increase in imports of unlisted rare earth oxides.

Li Auto recently signed cooperation agreements with local auto dealers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, officially bringing its L-series NEVs to the Middle East market. Additionally, the company announced its market expansion plans for the Macao SAR (China), Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, accelerating its global sales layout.

[SMM Data: Complete Summary of SMM March 2026 Import and Export Data] SMM March 2026 import and export data showed: copper cathode net imports were lower YoY; primary aluminum imports reached 255,000 mt, up 14.8% YoY; refined lead imports surged significantly; zinc ingot imports were up 220% MoM; tin ore imports were up 122% YoY; silver imports were up 93% MoM; steel exports rebounded MoM; PV module export value was up 122.7% MoM; silicon metal exports were up 43% MoM, and magnesium exports hit a multi-year high. Among new energy materials, exports of LiPF6 and artificial graphite surged significantly.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, from the perspective of invoice structure, the shortage of invoices dated this month at the domestic trade port intensified intraday, with suppliers generally raising their offer prices for cargoes with invoices dated this month, pushing SHFE copper spot premiums from discounts to premiums. Meanwhile, the price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and cargoes with invoices dated next month widened further, reflecting the continued disruption of the periodic invoice shortage on spot pricing. Affected by this, some downstream enterprises preferred to purchase directly from smelters to secure the issuance of invoices dated this month. Demand side, copper prices remain at elevated levels, and downstream purchasing has generally become cautious, dominated by rigid demand with limited willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the Labour Day holiday falls next week, and some downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stockpiling needs, which may lead to a certain increase in purchasing, providing periodic support for spot premiums. Overall, under the combined effects of a tight invoice structure, pre-holiday stockpiling expectations, and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain premiums next week.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Demand side, SHFE copper prices rose during the night session yesterday, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current price levels declined notably. Intraday purchasing sentiment pulled back, reflecting the suppressive effect of high prices on demand. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened to 180-110 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed some sentiment to hold prices firm, with low willingness to sell, providing certain support for spot discounts. Regional supply side, consumption momentum weakened in north China regions such as Gansu, Shanxi, and Henan, with some smelters resuming shipments to the Shanghai area. Available spot cargo in the east China market may increase going forward, posing potential downward pressure on spot discounts. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area was recorded at 188,000 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW. The destocking pace slowed down significantly, indicating that current copper prices had weak appeal to downstream enterprises. Overall, amid the interplay between support from the price spread between futures contracts structure and expectations of cargo flowing back from the north, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.