Hedge fund manager David Einhorn predicts a historic shift in global reserves as central banks move away from U.S. dollars toward gold, citing unstable U.S. trade policy and soaring deficits.

“Gold’s status as a haven may now be tarnished in the eyes of some as the precious metal is falling in price even as war roils the Middle East and financial markets alike, and some may even be tempted to say that the third major bull run in the commodity since 1971 is now over,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Nickel prices were in the doldrums this week, dominated by loose supply and demand. Although the US Fed cut interest rates as expected, nickel prices failed to get an effective boost and showed a clear downtrend. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract was relatively firm at the beginning of the week, but prices accelerated their pullback later due to weak domestic demand, closing at 115,590 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.84% WoW. LME nickel prices also weakened, falling consecutively and down 2.27% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 119,350 yuan/mt this week, down 1,850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 5,100 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -100 to 400 yuan/mt. Spot market transactions were sluggish this week, with downstream consumers mainly stockpiling for rigid demand and adopting a wait-and-see stance.

The theme of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum is "Financial Openness, Cooperation, and High-Quality Development amid Global Economic Changes." The forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18 to 19, 2025. The forum will invite high-level leaders from governments and financial regulatory agencies around the world, as well as leaders in the financial and economic sectors, renowned experts, and scholars. Li Kexin, Deputy Director of the General Office of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), previously disclosed that Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the PBOC, will attend the opening ceremony of the forum, deliver an opening speech, and give a keynote address. Additionally, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the PBOC and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, will also attend and deliver a keynote address. Moreover, Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Finance, previously stated that during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central financial regulatory authorities will announce several major financial policies. It is reported that the forum will discuss topics such as "Enhancing the Coordination of Global Monetary Policies," "Promoting the Sustained and Steady Development of Capital Markets," "Deepening the Cooperative Development of Shanghai and Hong Kong as International Financial Centers," "Financial Support for the Development of New Quality Productive Forces," "AI-Empowered Financial Reform and Innovation: Opportunities and Challenges," "Improving the Equity and Accessibility of Inclusive Financial Services," and "Improving Green Financial Policies, Standards, and Product Systems." The aim is to provide enlightening ideas and suggestions for promoting global economic recovery and financial stability, as well as advancing China's financial reform and opening up (for specific arrangements, please refer to the latest agenda of the forum).

In May, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, but the pace of increase slowed further, while foreign exchange reserves rose steadily. According to data released by the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on Saturday, China's gold reserves stood at 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 mt) at the end of May, up 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 mt) MoM. This marked the seventh consecutive month of gold reserve increases. For comparison, the increase was 70,000 ounces in April and 90,000 ounces in March, indicating a further slowdown in the pace of increase in May. Regarding gold prices, spot gold fell more than 1.2% on Friday, the non-farm payrolls day, closing at $3,311.86 per ounce. Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities believes that the world is currently in a period of comprehensive restructuring across multiple dimensions, including technology, military affairs, and wealth, and various uncertainties may persist globally in the future. Therefore, gold trading may not have ended yet. Gold not only has room for absolute price increases but can also reduce the volatility of asset portfolios, making it an important asset for allocation. Meanwhile, statistics from the SAFE showed that as of the end of May 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,285.3 billion, up $3.6 billion from the end of April, representing a 0.11% increase. The growth rate also slowed. The SAFE stated that in May 2025, influenced by factors such as the fiscal policies, monetary policies, and economic growth prospects of major economies, the US dollar index fluctuated slightly, and global financial asset prices showed mixed performance. Factors such as exchange rate conversion and changes in asset prices collectively contributed to the rise in foreign exchange reserves during the month. China's economy continued to rebound and improve, with the quality of economic development steadily rising, providing support for the basic stability of foreign exchange reserves.

Against the backdrop of global economic recovery, the silver industry chain has embraced new development opportunities. As one of the important precious metals, silver not only serves as a store of value and investment tool in the financial market but is also widely used in various fields such as electronics, healthcare, solar cells, and automotive manufacturing due to its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, as well as its antimicrobial properties. To further promote the sustainable development of the silver industry and strengthen communication and cooperation among industry players, the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference is planned to be held in May 2025. In recent years, with the growth in global demand for renewable energy and high-tech products, the industrial application demand for silver has significantly increased. Meanwhile, global economic uncertainties and changes in monetary policies have also prompted more investors to focus on silver's safe-haven properties. As a major global commodity market, Asia, North America, and Europe have gradually increased their attention to the silver industry chain. Changes in policies, technological innovations, and market demands across these regions have had a profound impact on the entire industry chain. At this conference, colleagues from upstream and downstream of the silver industry will gather to focus on various aspects of silver, including mining, processing, trading, investment, and applications, and comprehensively explore the challenges faced by the industry and future development opportunities. Click Registration Form to register immediately for the conference, jointly shape a silver future, gain insights into market trends, and collaborate on industry chain innovations. See you in Ningbo! Confirmation of Participation Dear Delegates, Thank you for your support of the "2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference" hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. The conference will be held from May 15-16 at the Sheraton Ningbo Donggang Hotel in Zhejiang, Ningbo. Conference registration will take place at 09:00 on May 15 at the 3F Foyer of the Sheraton Ningbo Donggang Hotel. All delegates are requested to attend on time. Please bring your business card or the registration confirmation SMS to collect your delegate badge and conference materials at the registration desk. Transportation Information Sheraton Ningbo Donggang Hotel, Zhejiang, Ningbo List of Participants Long press to scan the QR code and register immediately 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

SMM, May 21: Metal Market: Overnight, domestic base metals futures closed higher across the board. SHFE tin rose by 1.16%, SHFE copper by 0.36%, SHFE lead by 0.57%, SHFE aluminum by 0.62%, and SHFE zinc by 0.76%, while SHFE nickel fell by 0.31%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract dropped by 1.18%. Overnight, the ferrous metals series showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose by 0.21%, stainless steel edged up slightly, rebar fell by 0.07%, and HRC closed flat at 3,206 yuan/mt. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.06%, while coke rose by 0.28%. Overnight, overseas base metals futures closed mostly higher. LME copper rose by 0.33%, LME aluminum by 1.27%, LME lead by 1.27%, LME zinc by 1.79%, LME tin by 0.19%, while LME nickel fell by 0.21%. Overnight, precious metals futures closed higher. COMEX gold rose by 1.83%, COMEX silver by 2.32%. SHFE gold rose by 2.11%, and SHFE silver by 1.68%. As of 8:10 a.m. on May 21, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Xi Jinping: Strengthen Confidence to Promote High-Quality Development and Efficient Governance, Strive to Write a New Chapter in Advancing Chinese-Style Modernization in Central China] Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the People's Republic of China, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, recently emphasized during a field trip to Henan that in the new era and on the new journey, Henan should earnestly implement the strategic plans of the CPC Central Committee on accelerating the rise of the central region, ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin, adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, focus on building a modern industrial system and a strong agricultural province, improve people's livelihoods, strengthen social governance, enhance ecological and environmental protection, and promote cultural prosperity, striving to write a new chapter in advancing Chinese-style modernization in central China with high-quality development and efficient governance. (Xinhua News Agency) [Financial Support for the Real Economy! PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng Presides Over High-Profile Symposium] To implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, promote the effective implementation of a package of monetary and financial policies, and support sustained economic recovery and improvement, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), presided over and delivered a speech at a symposium on financial support for the real economy on May 19. Zhou Liang, Deputy Governor of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, attended and delivered a speech. Xuan Changneng and Zou Lan, Deputy Governors of the PBOC, also attended the meeting. The meeting emphasized the need to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain reasonable growth in the total amount of finance. We will intensify support for key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, boosting consumption, private and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade. We will make full use of existing and incremental policies, enhance the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy, and support economic restructuring, transformation and upgrading, and the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones. We will strengthen the implementation and transmission of monetary policies, safeguard fair market competition, and promote the organic unity of financial services for the real economy and the sustainable development of banks themselves. We will advance the international use of the RMB in an orderly manner and improve the convenience of trade, investment, and financing. We will coordinate development and security and resolutely safeguard national financial security. 》Click for details [China's National Energy Administration: Total electricity consumption in society increased by 4.7% YoY in April] The National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption in society for April. In April, total electricity consumption in society reached 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY. In terms of electricity consumption by sector, the primary sector consumed 11 billion kWh, up 13.8% YoY; the secondary sector consumed 528.5 billion kWh, up 3.0% YoY; the tertiary sector consumed 139 billion kWh, up 9.0% YoY; and urban and rural residents consumed 93.6 billion kWh, up 7.0% YoY. From January to April, cumulative electricity consumption in society reached 3,156.6 billion kWh, up 3.1% YoY, with power generation by industrial enterprises above designated size totaling 2,984 billion kWh. 》Click for details [National Development and Reform Commission: Further improve institutional mechanisms for promoting the development of the private economy, and conduct a review of local regulations, rules, normative documents, and other policy documents] The General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on learning about, publicizing, and implementing the Law of the People's Republic of China on Promoting the Private Economy. Taking the implementation of the Law on Promoting the Private Economy as an opportunity, we will further improve our work standards, strengthen work measures, and ensure the promotion and growth of the private economy within the framework of the rule of law. First, we will establish and improve working mechanisms. We will implement relevant legal provisions, establish and improve coordination mechanisms for promoting the development of the private economy, and comprehensively promote the implementation of work. Second, we will accelerate the improvement of supporting systems. In line with legal provisions, we will do a good job in "establishing, amending, abolishing, and interpreting" (laws and regulations). On the one hand, we will further improve institutional mechanisms for promoting the development of the private economy in light of our own actual conditions. On the other hand, we will conduct a review of local regulations, rules, normative documents, and other policy documents, and promptly amend or abolish those that are inconsistent with legal provisions. Third, we will fully implement legal provisions. We will enhance our awareness of the rule of law, fulfill our statutory duties, and carry out our work in strict accordance with statutory authorities and procedures. We will ensure that all forms of ownership can use production factors equally under the law, participate in market competition fairly, and enjoy equal legal protection. We will actively coordinate and resolve major issues in the development of the private economy, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of private enterprises and entrepreneurs in accordance with the law, and ensure that all institutional provisions of the Law on Promoting the Private Economy are effectively implemented. Regarding the US dollar: The US dollar fell again on Tuesday, dragged down by the US Fed's cautious stance on the economy. Overnight, the US dollar index continued its decline from the previous trading day, dropping 0.35% to 100.01. The US dollar was sold off on Monday after rating agency Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" last Friday. US Fed officials doubled down on their concerns about the impact of the US government's trade policies on the economy on Tuesday. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that although recent US-China trade tensions have eased, the labour market appears likely to weaken and prices may rise. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told Axios that current trade developments could lead to stagflation, although other US government policies might offset this effect. Regarding other currencies: The yen is expected to remain strong as the Bank of Japan's policy stance remains biased towards further rate hikes, while other G10 central banks are cutting interest rates, noted Derek Halpenny of MUFG Bank in a report. Even if the Bank of Japan eventually stops raising rates, it is unlikely to return to monetary easing, which will continue to support the yen. (Huitong Finance) On the macro front: Today, the UK's April CPI year-on-year rate, core CPI year-on-year rate, and retail price index year-on-year rate will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter Bostic will chair a meeting, and 2026 FOMC voter Hammack and 2027 FOMC voter Daly will deliver keynote speeches. Regarding crude oil: Both oil futures rose slightly, with US crude up 0.18% and Brent crude up 0.09%. Oil prices fluctuated rangebound due to uncertainties in US-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks. An agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict could allow Russia to export more oil globally. An industry insider said on Tuesday that Kazakhstan's May oil production increased by 2%, a rise that defied OPEC's pressure on the country to cut production. Kazakhstan has repeatedly violated its OPEC production quota, citing the difficulty of telling Western oil giants like Chevron and ExxonMobil to cut their plans. On Tuesday, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said at an economic forum in Doha that if crude oil prices fall below $60 per barrel, investment will decrease and electricity demand will not be met. Saudi Arabia's Minister of Economy Faisal Alibrahim stated at the Qatar Economic Forum that the Saudi economy is always prepared for various oil price scenarios. He said, "Our budget is no longer driven by oil, but by our priorities." The American Petroleum Institute (API) released data on Tuesday indicating that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined. According to the API report, US crude oil inventories rose by 2.499 million barrels in the week ending May 16. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories dropped by 1.401 million barrels. Previous surveys had shown that analysts expected US crude oil inventories to decrease by approximately 1.3 million barrels, gasoline inventories by around 500,000 barrels, and distillate inventories by about 1.4 million barrels last week. Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. Furthermore, due to the impact of contract rollover, the last in-house trading for June NYMEX New York crude oil futures will be completed at 2:30 on May 21, and the last electronic trading will be completed at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the contract rollover announcements from trading venues to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take extra caution. (Webstock Inc.)

Since the tariff reduction, multiple foreign institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Ningxia Ruiyin Lead Resource Recycling Co., Ltd., have expressed optimism about China's stock market. In a recent research report, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month targets for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 and 4,600 points, respectively, implying potential upside of 11% and 17%. At the 2025 Global Investors Conference hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Xing Ziqiang, Chief China Economist at Morgan Stanley, delivered a keynote speech titled "China's Economy Amidst Technological and Geopolitical Changes." In Xing's view, the US is experiencing an extremely rare "triple hit" in stocks, bonds, and currency, with the US dollar, as the global reserve currency, depreciating. This chain reaction has prompted the world to reconsider the long-held "US economic exceptionalism" and the absolute dominance of the US dollar over the past decades. Turning to Chinese assets, technological innovation has brought about a narrative shift. The cluster scale advantages of upstream and downstream industries in the industry chain, the demographic dividend, vast market demand, and the resilient spirit of private enterprises will all drive China to play an indispensable and important role in the next phase of the global technological revolution. During the on-site interview session at the conference, Shen Li, Managing Director and Head of China Onshore Equities at Morgan Stanley, stated that the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations has exceeded expectations, which is conducive to boosting international investors' risk appetite. At Morgan Stanley's China BEST Conference, over 80% of investors indicated that they are likely to increase their investment exposure to Chinese stocks in the near future. In a recent exclusive interview with Cailian Press, Wang Ying, Chief China Equity Strategist, expressed confidence in the market. She believes that the Hong Kong market is a crucial platform for global institutional investors to price Chinese assets. Currently, the pricing power of Hong Kong stocks has shown signs of gradually stabilizing, which is of great significance for rebuilding global investors' confidence in Chinese assets. Why are foreign investors bullish on Chinese assets? After a month of tariff frictions, a significant turning point has emerged. However, there may still be uncertainties in future tariffs, and the rise of trade protectionism globally cannot be ignored, as the global economic development still faces uncertainties. Xing Ziqiang stated that against this backdrop, China has ample room to maneuver in responding to shocks. There are four reasons: first, there is room for domestic policy stimulus to be intensified; second, the overall social livelihood still has the capacity to withstand pressures; third, the cluster advantages of the industry chain are difficult to replace in the short term; fourth, China has enormous potential for scientific and technological innovation in the next phase of the technological revolution. The intensification of policies has attracted particular market attention, especially in boosting domestic demand and consumption. Xing Ziqiang pointed out that the People's Bank of China has already taken the lead in introducing a package of monetary policies that will play a role in boosting confidence. During the Two Sessions held in March this year, stimulus policies were also formulated and announced for areas such as consumer goods subsidies, infrastructure, and technology. Since the beginning of the year, there has been active issuance of government bonds, which has strongly supported the overall growth of total social financing. It is expected that supplementary fiscal policies will be further introduced in the future. Xing Ziqiang also observed that China has expanded the opening-up of its service sector to many first- and second-tier cities, covering various fields such as healthcare, elderly care, and even culture. It has reduced entry barriers, allowing more private and foreign-funded enterprises to enter, which has also brought about new developments. A series of measures have been taken in the social security system since the beginning of the year, including gradually increasing the expenses for rural elderly care and medical insurance. The consolidation and reform of the crucial social security system are expected to gradually boost China's domestic consumption market. China's narrative on technological innovation has changed The emergence of DeepSeek has once again demonstrated China's advantages in the new round of global high-tech fields represented by artificial intelligence, which is also a focus of attention for foreign institutions. Recently, Morgan Stanley Research Department released a report elaborating on China's industrial advantages in artificial intelligence: Firstly, the "Report on China's Top 28 Frontier Industries" systematically sorts out 28 emerging enterprises in frontier industries ranging from intelligent driving, AI applications, to humanoid robots. These enterprises are expected to possess strong global competitiveness in the future. Secondly, according to Morgan Stanley's "China AI Hardware Self-Sufficiency Rate Index," it is projected that China will achieve a self-sufficiency rate of over 80% by 2027, including GPU chips. "The advantages of cluster scale in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, the demographic dividend of talent, as well as the vast market demand and the resilient spirit of private enterprises are China's strengths in the technological field, which will drive China to play an indispensable and important role in the next phase of the global technological revolution," Xing Ziqiang pointed out. The talent advantage is particularly evident in the AI industry, stemming from China's years of demographic dividend of engineers. AI has always been supported by four main components, namely computing power, algorithms, data, and scenarios. Xing Ziqiang believes that China's current advantages in algorithms, data, and scenarios can compensate for its deficiencies in computing power—that is, by improving efficiency through algorithms, data, and scenarios, and accumulating more advantages in other aspects to make up for the lack of computing power. On the other hand, China has also made positive progress in computing power. For example, domestically produced chips and servers are being used for AI training. The current domestic self-sufficiency rate has reached 34%, and it is expected to rise to 82% by 2027. Xing Ziqiang believes that since last year, China's narrative logic in the global technological innovation landscape has undergone significant changes. Affected by the US technology containment policies, the development prospects of China's private enterprises experienced periodic fluctuations, and market confidence was once impacted. However, the industrial advantages and technological innovation capabilities in the next phase are inseparable from China, which has become a global consensus. Wang Ying is optimistic about the technology and internet sectors in Hong Kong stocks. She stated that for a long time, global investors' attention to China's technology and AI sectors has been relatively limited. The emergence of DeepSeek has made investors realize that China possesses a vast pool of engineering talent, data availability, and a well-established ecosystem in the social networking and e-commerce sectors, and may receive further government support to accelerate the application of AI. Now, global investors are beginning to reassess the investability of China in the technology and AI sectors. In addition, Wang Ying is also optimistic about China's new consumption sector, believing that it has the potential to gain more favour from investors in the global market's blue ocean. "Morgan Stanley released a report on the theme of Chinese enterprises going global in 2023. Since then, we have been paying close attention to companies related to the new consumption sector," Wang Ying said. Improved Confidence Among Foreign Investors Wang Ying observed that the talks with private entrepreneurs in mid-February this year further helped global investors understand the decision-making direction of the Chinese government, and foreign investors' confidence in China's investment environment has further improved. "The team has adjusted the index rating for Chinese stocks from underweight to neutral," Wang Ying further stated. Three major factors—clear policy signals turning positive, improvements in the geopolitical landscape, and renewed confidence shaped by technological breakthroughs—are propelling the Chinese market into a new phase, with the return on equity (ROE) of the MSCI China Index expected to continue improving. Wang Ying indicated that during the period from mid-January to April 2 this year, when reciprocal tariffs were implemented, nearly $8 billion in passive funds flowed into Chinese stocks. Although after April 2, due to the escalation of extreme tariffs, funds showed an outflow trend, this period was very short. Starting from late April, passive funds began to flow back into Chinese stocks. Wang Ying believes that with the stabilization of market sentiment, coupled with investors' rational analysis of the macro and capital market investment environment, foreign investors have reached a consensus that, in the context of global trade frictions, the investability, relative attractiveness, and the extent of impact on China's stock market are much smaller compared to other markets. From the perspective of global capital flow allocation, Wang Ying observed that global investors are actively changing their overweight positions in US dollar assets. As the world's second-largest stock market, China boasts unique advantages in terms of size and liquidity, and domestic policy support will further highlight its advantages in liquidity and economic cycle stability. What room is there for policy adjustments? Xing Ziqiang believes that despite certain progress in the Sino-US tariff dispute, China still needs to further leverage its fiscal power to boost domestic demand. Boosting domestic demand requires not only policy support but also reforms to the social security system. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to address the issue of funding support. He proposes three measures: First, increase the fiscal deficit, including issuing more government bonds. With the current dominance of US dollar assets being challenged, global capital is seeking new investment directions. If China increases the supply of RMB assets and expands the fiscal deficit, using the funds to stimulate consumption and improve social security and welfare, it will help break the cycle of low prices and enhance the yield of RMB assets. Second, advance the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and inject more dividends from state-owned assets into the social security system. This will not only provide strong support for the social security system but also promote the market-oriented operation of SOEs. Third, promote the transformation of overall fiscal expenditure, shifting from a fiscal model that previously focused on construction to one that emphasizes social welfare and social services. He further points out that, in the medium and long-term, China should seize the strategic opportunity period to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets and strengthen the competitiveness of the Chinese market by deepening reforms and expanding opening-up. He recommends implementing the "2030 Major Strategy." Specifically, this means achieving two "three zeros" by 2030, focusing on the strategy of expanding domestic demand and significantly opening up to the outside world. By establishing a unified national market, consolidating the social security system, and advancing fiscal transformation reforms, China aims to achieve a 30% growth in its domestic consumption market over the next five years, and this 30% increase in the domestic consumption market will be open to countries around the world. During this process, China will gradually reduce external tariffs to "zero," lower market access thresholds for foreign-funded enterprises and Chinese private enterprises to "zero," and reduce subsidies to "zero" over the next five years.

SMM News on May 19: On May 19, driven by positive macroeconomic expectations, including the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) making a statement, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council recently issuing the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions," favorable local policies, market capital inflows, and the stability and increase in housing prices in first-tier cities like Beijing in April, the real estate sector strengthened. By the close of trading on the 19th, the real estate services sector rose by 2.4%, and the real estate development sector increased by 2.66%. In terms of individual stocks, multiple stocks such as Airport Co., Ltd., Shahe Co., Ltd., Huayuan Property Co., Ltd., Haitai Development Co., Ltd., China Fortune Land Development Co., Ltd., and Dianzicheng Co., Ltd., hit their daily limits. Rongsheng Development Co., Ltd., Jingneng Real Estate Co., Ltd., Nandu Property Co., Ltd., and Shenzhen Zhenye Group Co., Ltd. (A-share) were among the top gainers. On the news front: Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that the real estate market was basically stable in April, with broad prospects for improving the quality and efficiency of real estate construction! Fu Linghui also mentioned that in the next phase, it is necessary to earnestly implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, proactively adapt to the reality of significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, strengthen policy coordination, continuously increase the supply of "high-quality housing," actively promote urban renewal actions and the construction of affordable housing, accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development, better meet the people's needs for a better living environment, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. News Front [National Bureau of Statistics: Since the beginning of the year, China's real estate market has continued to move towards halting declines and stabilizing, with transactions in some first- and second-tier cities showing signs of recovery] Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that under the effect of various policies aimed at halting declines and stabilizing the real estate market, since the beginning of the year, China's real estate market has continued to move towards halting declines and stabilizing, with transactions in some first- and second-tier cities showing signs of recovery, and housing prices generally stable. However, it should also be noted that the overall real estate market is still in the process of adjustment and transformation. Rigid and improvement-oriented demand remains to be released, and the pressure to sell off real estate in some regions is still relatively high. Continuous efforts are still needed to promote the halting of declines and stabilization of the real estate market. 》Click to view details [YoY decline in sales prices of commercial residential buildings narrows across all city tiers] In April, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities decreased by 2.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Shanghai saw an increase of 5.9%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 5.0%, 6.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. The sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 3.9% and 5.4% YoY, respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively. In April, the selling prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 3.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw decreases of 1.0%, 0.6%, 7.4%, and 3.7%, respectively. The selling prices of second-hand residential properties in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 6.5% and 7.4% YoY, with the declines narrowing by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively. 》Click for details [Beijing Releases 2025 Annual Housing Development Plan] Recently, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released the "2025 Beijing Annual Housing Development Plan," which clarifies the annual goals and key tasks for housing development. The plan proposes specific tasks, action plans, and work measures around eight aspects, including optimizing housing land supply, supporting reasonable housing demand, and strengthening housing security, to consolidate the real estate market's stable trend, promote high-quality housing development, and achieve higher levels of housing for all. The plan proposes to optimize housing land supply. Adhering to the principle of supply based on demand, it arranges 240 to 300 hectares of land for commercial housing, prioritizing development in areas with relatively complete facilities such as around rail transit stations, to create vibrant centers for work, living, and commerce. It also coordinates the supply of various types of affordable housing land, totaling 475 hectares. [Xinyang, Henan Officially Announces Pre-sale Reform: Industry Insiders Say It May Be Implemented Gradually] On May 13, the Xinyang Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released the "Several Measures on Strengthening the Management of Pre-sale Commercial Housing," which mentioned the implementation of pre-sale reform in the central urban area based on the principle of "differentiating between new and old projects." Projects that obtain construction permits after the issuance of the document must reach the main structure's topping-out before applying for pre-sale permits; for newly auctioned land after the document's issuance, pre-sale is no longer allowed. Guojin Securities stated that pre-sale reform means delayed capital recovery, and the accompanying policies, especially financing policies, are not yet clear, which will increase the financial pressure on enterprises in the short term. At the same time, it will raise the threshold for developers to acquire land, increase the difficulty of land auctions, and further increase local fiscal pressure. In the short term, it may be implemented gradually under the framework of "city-specific policies." [Shenzhen's Second-hand Housing Transactions Show Post-Holiday Recovery, Up 107% WoW] According to statistics from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, in the 19th week of 2025, the city recorded 1,407 second-hand housing transactions (including self-service), up 106.6% WoW. The association believes that the weekly transaction volume of second-hand housing was affected by the Labour Day holiday, showing fluctuations in the past two weeks, and the current transaction volume has returned to normal levels. According to statistics on the number of second-hand housing units publicly available for sale, as of May 12, 2025, there were 71,832 valid second-hand housing units for sale in the city, a decrease of 499 units WoW. (Caijing) [PBOC: Expand the Scope of Use for Affordable Housing Refinancing to Continuously Consolidate the Stable Trend of the Real Estate Market] On May 9, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the Implementation Report on China's Monetary Policy for the First Quarter of 2025. In the next phase, it will accelerate the establishment and improvement of the pension finance system to support China's pension cause. It will support the boosting and expansion of consumption, guiding financial institutions to actively meet the diversified funding needs of various entities from both the supply and demand sides of consumption. It will expand the scope of use for affordable housing refinancing, continuously consolidate the stable trend of the real estate market, improve the basic real estate finance system, and help build a new model for real estate development. [Pan Gongsheng, Li Yunze, and Wu Qing Make Major Statements! Covering RRR Cuts, Interest Rate Cuts, the Stock Market, the Real Estate Market, and More...] At 9 a.m. on May 7, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, inviting the heads of the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to introduce the situation regarding the "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations". PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng, National Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze, and CSRC Chairman Wu Qing will attend the conference. The PBOC announced that, starting from May 8, it will cut the interest rate on 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market by 0.1 percentage point. Starting from May 15, it will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for financial institutions by 0.5 percentage point. Starting from May 8, it will cut the interest rate on individual housing provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage point. It will cut the RRR for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies by 5 percentage points. Starting from May 7, it will cut the refinancing rate by 0.25 percentage point. Starting from May 8, it will cut the standing lending facility rate by 10 basis points. It has decided to increase the quota for refinancing to support agriculture and small businesses by 300 billion yuan and increase the quota for refinancing to support technological innovation and technological transformation by 300 billion yuan. Li Yunze stated that eight incremental policies have recently been introduced, including accelerating the introduction of a series of financing systems compatible with the new model for real estate development, further expanding the scope of pilot programs for long-term investment by insurance funds to introduce more incremental funds into the market, adjusting and optimizing regulatory rules, reducing the risk factor for insurance companies' stock investments to support a stable and active capital market, promptly introducing a package of policies to support financing for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, formulating a series of policy measures for the banking and insurance industries to safeguard the development of foreign trade, providing precise services to market entities significantly affected by tariffs, revising the management measures for merger and acquisition loans, increasing investment in science and technology innovation enterprises, and formulating opinions on the high-quality development of technology insurance. Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that every effort would be made to consolidate the momentum of market stabilization and improvement, dynamically improve work plans to address various external risk attacks, and fully support the role of Central Huijin Investment Ltd. as a quasi-stabilization fund. 》Click to view details [Zhuhai: Encourages "trade-in" for housing, with a maximum subsidy amount of no more than 30,000 yuan per unit] Zhuhai recently issued the "Several Measures to Promote High-Quality Development of the Real Estate Market in Zhuhai City," which proposes encouraging "trade-in" for housing. Residents participating in the "trade-in" program for housing will receive a special housing purchase subsidy of 1% of the online contract price of the newly purchased home, with a maximum subsidy amount per unit not exceeding 30,000 yuan. The subsidy policy is valid for one year. A unified platform for "trade-in" housing will be established, synchronously linked with the government's online approval process, enabling "one-stop" online handling of business transaction procedures. The cross-bank handling of "transfer with mortgage" transactions will be vigorously promoted. For taxpayers who sell their own homes in Zhuhai and repurchase a home in the city within one year, the individual income tax paid when selling their own home will be refunded in accordance with national policies. [Wuhan: Families with two or three children purchasing newly built commercial housing within the city will receive housing purchase subsidies of 60,000 yuan and 120,000 yuan, respectively] The Wuhan Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau and other departments issued a notice on continuously consolidating the stable situation of the real estate market, optimizing housing loan services for young people. Commercial banks are encouraged to provide specialized housing loan financial products and diversified repayment methods for young people working and starting businesses in Wuhan. The housing provident fund loan policy will be optimized. The maximum loan amount for the second personal housing provident fund loan will be increased to be consistent with that for the first home. Support for employees who transition from renting to purchasing will be strengthened, allowing the amount withdrawn for rent to be included in the calculation of the loan amount based on the deposit balance. The "trade-in" acquisition efforts will be increased. State-owned enterprises and various market entities are encouraged to acquire individual second-hand homes to promote the "trade-in" program. Active efforts will be made to carry out cross-district "trade-in" for housing, with the city planning to acquire 3,000 individual second-hand homes for various types of rental housing and resettlement housing. Support for improved housing purchase needs will be continuously provided. Before December 31, 2025, families that sell their own homes within this year and purchase newly built commercial housing within six months, or purchase newly built commercial housing and sell their original own homes within 12 months, will receive a full subsidy from the district where the newly purchased home is located based on the actual amount of deed tax paid. The scope of housing purchase support for families with multiple children will be expanded. From May 1 to December 31, 2025, families with two or three children that comply with the national family planning policy and purchase newly built commercial housing within the city will receive housing purchase subsidies of 60,000 yuan and 120,000 yuan, respectively. Support for the purchase of commercial and office properties will be increased. From May 1 to December 31, 2025, individuals purchasing newly built commercial and office residential properties for non-business purposes will receive a 50% subsidy based on the actual amount of deed tax paid. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial loans will be reduced from 50% to 45%, and the loan interest rates will be independently determined by commercial banks based on relevant principles of loan risk management. Voices from All Sides A research report by Sinolink Securities points out that the early-stage monetary policy is expected to alleviate the pressure on the liability side for both residents and enterprises simultaneously, which will drive the transaction of commercial residential properties and the implementation of newly commenced projects. Considering that fiscal funds are clearly identified as the main source of support for urban renewal, it is expected that the implementation speed will accelerate in the future. Developers are recommended to prioritize key layouts in first-tier and core second-tier cities, focusing on improved products, and possess the ability to continuously acquire land. Real estate agencies are recommended to benefit from the continuous implementation of favorable policies, the increased activity in both the primary and secondary housing markets, and to have core competitive advantages in intermediary platforms and property and commercial management. A research report by Kaiyuan Securities points out that the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council recently issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions," proposing that by 2030, significant progress should be made in the implementation of urban renewal actions, the institutional mechanisms for urban renewal should be continuously improved, and initial results should be achieved in the transformation of urban development and construction methods. Hangzhou has witnessed the transfer of three residential plots involving residential land in Qiantang District, with a total land transfer area of 155,058 m², a total planned construction area of 314,743.9 m², and a total starting price of 2.573 billion yuan. Ultimately, all three plots were sold at the base price, generating a total of 2.573 billion yuan. Sales in the first four months of 2025 have initially stabilized, and the April Political Bureau meeting proposed to "continuously consolidate the stable trend of the real estate market," affirming the effectiveness of real estate regulatory policies. It is expected that subsequent policies targeting the real estate sector will remain positive and mild, with more active fiscal and monetary policies expected to be introduced to support the steady development of the industry. Under active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, the acquisition and storage of existing properties and the renovation of urban villages are expected to accelerate, improving the existing housing supply-demand relationship, speeding up the process of halting declines and stabilizing the market, and maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry. A research report by China Galaxy Securities states that on May 7, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on "a package of financial policies to support market stability and stabilize expectations," which mentioned "reducing the interest rate on personal housing provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points" and introduced that a series of financing systems compatible with the new model of real estate development will be accelerated to help continuously consolidate the stable trend of the real estate market. This reduction in loan interest rates related to home purchases, along with the mention of introducing incremental financing support policies, covers aspects such as real estate development, personal housing, and urban renewal. The research report suggests that with the continuous promotion of policies, the threshold for home purchases by residents is expected to decrease, and the rigid and improvement-oriented housing demands of residents are expected to receive further support. With the backing of policies, the allocation value of the real estate sector stands out. The report believes that leading real estate enterprises demonstrate excellent operational management capabilities and financial advantages, and their market share is expected to rise further. The research report of Wanlian Securities states: China's real estate market still has significant room for development. Since the Political Bureau meeting in September last year, the sales end of commercial housing has shown signs of stabilizing after a decline. The recent reduction in the interest rate for housing provident fund loans will further open up room for adjustments in the interest rates for individual housing commercial loans, reducing home purchase costs. Meanwhile, this package of monetary policies will further boost market confidence and improve residents' income expectations. Wanlian Securities expects that subsequent policy measures will remain continuously accommodative, with relevant optimization policies being continuously introduced to consolidate the stable trend of the real estate market. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty in overseas market demand. Against the backdrop of greater efforts to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic economic cycle, promoting housing consumption will be a key focus. It is expected that policies such as urban renewal will continue to be optimized and accelerated in implementation, and more incremental policies are still worth anticipating. The real estate industry is expected to maintain a stable trend with the continuous support of policies. For more information on the fundamentals, policies, and future trends of domestic infrastructure and real estate, please participate in the 2025 SMM (3rd) Wire and Cable Industry Development Conference & Wire and Cable Industry Exhibition .

On May 16, the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. and Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., and supported by sponsors including Fujian Zijin Precious Metals Materials Co., Ltd., Huizhou Yian Precious Metals Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Jiangshan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou Jinquan Mining and Metallurgical Equipment Co., Ltd., Hunan Shengyin New Materials Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Weida Precious Metals Powder Materials Co., Ltd., Guangxi Zhongma Zhonglianjin Cross-border E-commerce Co., Ltd., Suzhou Xinghan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Yongxing Zhongsheng Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., IKOI S.p.A, Hunan Zhengming Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., Kunshan Hongfutai Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., and Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd., featured a presentation by Liang Yonghui, Deputy General Manager of Shandong Zhaojin Gold and Silver Refining Co., Ltd., on the topic "Analysis of Gold and Silver Price Trends: A Trader's Perspective." Logic of Gold and Silver Price Analysis The logical hierarchy of gold price drivers differs from that of commodities due to gold's financial attributes. Silver prices are increasingly influenced by copper prices. Long-term: The macro trend of gold prices opposes paper currency credit. Medium-term: Guided by expectations of real interest rates, with capital flows dominated by technical factors, speculation, and risk aversion. Short-term: Market sentiment Gold price = Real interest rate + Risk aversion + Market sentiment, etc. Logic from 1997 to present: From 1997-2015, real interest rates and inflation; from 2016-2018, technical factors; from 2019 to present, real interest rates, risk aversion, and market sentiment. Gold and Silver Price Analysis Framework (Mind Map) Macro fundamentals: From the perspective of military cycles, the current period is a high-incidence era of revolutions over the past century, indicating a more severe situation than in the 1930s and 1970s. From the Kondratieff wave (long-wave cycle) perspective, the current situation in the US resembles that of the 1970s, both experiencing high inflation during the Kondratieff depression phase. Sunspots: A century-long solar storm tide provides long-term support for gold and silver prices. The rise in global average temperatures will significantly increase the number of hungry people, raising uncertainty risks. Abnormal weather patterns, economic turmoil, and population growth will provide long-term bullish factors for gold and silver (carbon neutrality). From the perspective of the US dollar index, it has fallen below 100 but is expected to remain volatile, with a bullish impact on gold and silver prices. The purchasing power of major currencies and commodities has significantly declined relative to gold. Historically, major currencies were pegged to gold. Following the final collapse of the US Bretton Woods system in 1971, gold was delinked from the US dollar. Since then, with a few exceptions, gold has significantly outperformed all major currencies and commodities as a medium of exchange. A key factor behind this robust performance is the slow growth in gold supply, with gold mine production increasing gradually over time—by approximately 1.7% annually over the past two decades. In contrast, fiat currencies can be printed in unlimited quantities to support monetary policies, such as the quantitative easing (QE) policies implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These crises have prompted investors to turn to gold as a hedge against currency depreciation risks and to protect the purchasing power of their assets. Currently, the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle has entered a pause phase. A series of uncertainties are affecting the outlook for US Fed interest rate cuts. The minutes of the US Fed's monetary policy meetings indicate that policies such as the Trump administration's tariffs have led to increased economic uncertainty and upside risks to inflation. Therefore, the US Fed will continue to pause interest rate cuts and wait for clearer inflation and economic outlooks before taking further action. According to statistics, the term "tariffs" was mentioned 107 times in the US Fed's Beige Book report, while terms related to "uncertainty" appeared 89 times, reflecting the US Fed's concerns about the uncertain consequences arising from tariff policies. Currently, market expectations are for an interest rate cut as early as June, with up to four cuts possible throughout the year. According to the US Fed's interest rate forecast dot plot, a report based on individual members' predictions of future target interest rates released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Looking ahead to the US Fed's future interest rate cut path, the prerequisites for future US Fed interest rate cuts are sustained declines in inflation or significant weakness in the labour market. Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to cut interest rates, but Fed Chairman Powell has clearly stated that the current stance is to remain on the sidelines. Currently, influenced by the continued weakening of the labour market, market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts this year have risen to 100 basis points, with a total of four cuts expected. The ongoing global de-dollarization is causing cracks in the US dollar system, reshaping the world order. With no alternative to gold emerging yet, this supports gold prices. The macroeconomic cycle influences medium and long-term fluctuations in gold prices. US economic recession cycles often correspond with rising gold prices and falling silver prices. The risk of economic recession has significantly increased, which is bullish for gold and bearish for silver. From the perspective of real interest rates, the current static gold price is $1,850. ►Silver Supply and Demand The latest report released by the Silver Institute predicts that the global silver deficit will narrow to 117.6 million ounces in 2025, a decrease of 21%. This change stems from the combined effects of a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. Silver, as a crucial material for jewelry, electronics, EVs, and solar panels, and with investment value, has experienced a structural market shortage for five consecutive years. It is expected to remain stable in 2025, while demand for jewelry and silverware is anticipated to decline. The report specifically mentions that adjustments to the US tariff policy pose a major risk factor for silver demand this year, and changes in this policy may profoundly impact the supply-demand balance in the global silver market. Both the total global silver supply and silver mine production have slowed down. Total demand has weakened somewhat, while industrial silver demand continues to grow, and PV demand growth is limited. It also elaborates on the narrowing of the silver supply-demand gap; the low level of domestic and overseas silver inventories; the historically high levels of silver CFTC open interest, bulls, and net long positions; the rise in silver investment demand; and the increase in silver ETF holdings. ►Gold-silver price ratio: The ratio of silver to gold is an important indicator for measuring their relative value. Due to the impact of safe-haven and investment demand, gold surged significantly in April, while silver, lacking safe-haven attributes, saw limited gains, leading to a rapid widening of the gold-silver ratio to 107. After the release of the overheated sentiment in the gold market, gold bulls reduced their positions in stages and exited the market. Meanwhile, silver remained unusually resilient, and the gold-silver ratio once fell below 100. The long-term upward logic for gold remains unchanged, while silver currently lacks the conditions for a long-term rally. Despite the already high gold-silver ratio, as the correction in gold concludes, bullish capital is expected to return to the market, and the gold-silver ratio may continue to rise in the future. From the perspective of the Kondratieff depression phase, considering excess premium or a macro bull market, gold has risen, and the excess premium has been realized. Will there be a macro bull market? Bearish in the medium term. From the perspective of the gold-to-metal and gold-to-agricultural product ratios during the depression, gold is at a high level with excess premium, which is bearish. From the perspective of central banks' gold buying and selling, central banks' purchases have been on an upward trend in recent years, which is bearish in peaceful times and bullish during war cycles. From the perspective of capital flow—open interest, a unilateral trend can be maintained. Exchange rates will reduce volatility: From the perspective of the silver bull-bear cycle, with eight operational phases, it is bearish. However, silver's application in PV at 3,000 mt per year is bullish in the long term (due to major industrial technological breakthroughs). ►Key factors Some thoughts: 1. Gold's correction is similar to that in December 2009. Most non-ferrous metals have seen their prices halved, while gold has continuously hit new highs, and silver's performance resembles that of copper in the 1980s. 3. Prices tend to rise during interest rate hike cycles, and there is a high probability of rising during interest rate cut cycles as well. 4. The global macro cycle suggests a chaotic world in the future. Under this macro cycle, gold prices may exceed expectations. Could silver reach $49? 5. Opportunities arise from the scarcity of gold, silver, platinum, tin, gallium, germanium, and major industrial technological breakthroughs. 6. Digital currencies represent the greatest uncertainty in weakening the financial attributes of gold and silver. Gold has the foundation for a major bull market, and silver's long-term target is close to its previous high. ►Forecast: Its long-term attributes resemble those of copper, with a new cycle trend emerging after March 2024. In the near term, prices are expected to range from $27 to $38, with an overall fluctuating upward trend based on weekly adjustments. Gold: Is there a foundation for a long-term bull market at $5,000? Risk warnings: (In the VUCA era) 1. Uncertainty of war and conflicts. 2. Uncertainty of technological revolutions. 3. Uncertainty between the East and the West. 4. Uncertainty of exchange rates. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference