SMM July 17 News: This week, secondary refined lead EXW transaction prices were mainly at a discount to the SMM #1 lead average price. Smelters held back from selling due to losses, and price fluctuations during the week caused the discount/premium range to fluctuate between a discount of 50 yuan/mt and a premium of 30 yuan/mt. Industry losses widened first and then narrowed. As of July 17, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for secondary lead enterprises stood at -317 yuan/mt for large-scale producers and -497 yuan/mt for small and medium-scale producers. Next week, expectations for production cuts in secondary lead will support lead prices, and premiums/discounts may return to parity territory. However, the battery off-season combined with high scrap battery costs will make it difficult for losses to improve.

Huahong Technology’s semi-annual results forecast disclosed on the evening of July 13 shows that attributable net profit in H1 2026 is expected to be 320 million yuan to 360 million yuan, up 301.84%–352.08% YoY. As for the reasons for the performance change, Huahong Technology said: In H1 2026, driven by industry policies and improved downstream demand, prices of major rare earth products in China climbed steadily. The company’s rare earth comprehensive utilization segment seized market opportunities, fully leveraged its comprehensive advantages in capacity scale, cost control and process technology, and continuously optimized its supply, production and sales coordination and inventory management strategies, effectively driving the full release of the segment’s profitability. The company continued to deepen its rare earth industry chain layout, steadily expanding its downstream rare earth permanent magnet materials business. Driven by steady demand from end-use sectors such as NEVs, wind power and industrial automation, the segment’s business scale kept expanding, its revenue and product mix continued to improve and it became an important supplement to performance growth. A review of SMM’s Pr-Nd oxide price trend in H1 shows that the Pr-Nd oxide price stood at 609,000 yuan/mt at the start of the year, hit its H1 high of 890,000 yuan/mt by late February, a cumulative gain of up to 46.7% from the start of the year. The key driver was the supply side: spot Pr-Nd oxide supply remained tight, futures surged sharply, suppliers held back from selling amid strong bullish sentiment, and pre-holiday stockpiling purchases by metal companies pushed prices up rapidly. At the same time, supply disruptions from Myanmar ore, domestic separation plants’ production resumptions falling short of expectations and market sentiment created a combined effect of “undersupply + bullish hold-back.” From March to April, however, bearish supply-side news combined with weak demand from traditional end-use sectors pulled Pr-Nd oxide prices back quickly to around 700,000 yuan/mt. Yet the rise in China Northern Rare Earth’s concentrate prices in April, supply support from production suspensions at separation plants and export orders released under the export control extension window together drove prices to rebound slightly. From May, downstream sectors gradually entered the off-season and purchases became more cautious. From late June, the formal implementation of the Mineral Resources Law Implementation Regulations, which list rare earths as strategic minerals, and production cuts by scrap recycling enterprises due to tax invoice issues boosted Pr-Nd oxide prices again, which rebounded to 742,500 yuan/mt on June 30. Huahong Technology announced on June 30 that its controlling shareholder Jiangsu Huahong Industrial Group Co., Ltd., which holds a 32.01% stake, plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 15.0102 million shares (1.99% of total equity) through centralized bidding and block trading within three months after 15 trading days; Director and senior executive Zhu Dayong, who holds a 0.19% stake, plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 365,000 shares (0.05% of total equity) through centralized bidding or block trading within three months after 15 trading days; Director and senior executive Liu Weihua, who holds a 1.52% stake, plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 2.8 million shares (0.37% of total equity) through centralized bidding or block trading within three months after 15 trading days. Huahong Technology previously released its 2025 annual performance report, showing that in 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB7.835 billion, up 40.51% YoY, reaching a three-year high. After posting losses for two consecutive years, the company successfully returned to profitability, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reaching RMB204 million, up 157.46% YoY. 1. The rare earth segment seized the industry opportunity, acting as the "ballast stone" and "engine" for the turnaround. In 2025, the global rare earth market experienced a major shift in the supply-demand pattern. Driven by surging downstream demand from sectors such as new energy and robotics, combined with rigid supply-side constraints, rare earth product prices continued to rise, with the cumulative annual price increase for core products like Pr-Nd oxide exceeding 35%. The company's Rare Earth Resource Comprehensive Utilization Division keenly captured this industry opportunity, made accurate assessments, and acted accordingly: the company kept pace with the market, optimized procurement and sales strategies, and maximized product value during the price upcycle. Technological transformation yielded results and capacity was released: the previously completed technological transformation and capacity expansion projects at Xintai Technology and Jiangxi Wanhong reached full production, with annual capacity for rare earth oxides stabilizing at 12,000 mt, significantly releasing economies of scale. The company tapped internal potential to reduce costs and enhance efficiency: by optimizing process flows, production costs were strictly controlled and recovery rates were improved. During the reporting period, the company's rare earth resource comprehensive utilization business recorded strong production and sales performance with rising volumes and prices, contributing core profits to the company. 2. All business segments collaborated to build a diversified support structure. While the rare earth resource comprehensive utilization segment led the way, other segments also achieved strong operating results, creating a favorable situation of "blossoming in multiple areas and developing in synergy": Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Segment achieved "dual improvement in volume and quality," with production capacity steadily released across various production sites, providing strong support for market expansion and order fulfillment. High-performance magnetic material products were successfully introduced into the supply chain systems of multiple first-tier NEV automakers, with order scale continuing to expand and client quality and business mix continuously optimized. Construction of the key Baotou production site is progressing in an orderly manner and is planned to enter trial production in Q2 2026, laying a critical foundation for doubling magnetic material capacity. Elevator Parts Segment: The traditional business seized the policy dividends from the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins," rapidly responding to domestic demand for elevator installation and retrofitting. Through refined production scheduling and efficiency gains, total annual production grew by over 20% YoY. The segment steadily expanded its second growth curve, with customer acquisition and product development activities for emerging businesses such as automotive electronics and energy storage progressing on schedule. At the same time, the division's "going global" process accelerated, closely following market trends and customer needs. Renewable Resource Equipment Segment: In the face of profound industry changes and intense market competition, the business division continued to increase investment in new product R&D and accelerated its deployment in markets outside China, striving to secure survival and development amid fierce competition. Internally, it focused tightly on cost reduction across supply, production, and sales to enhance operational quality. In the renewable resource operations segment, the end-of-life vehicle dismantling and steel scrap processing businesses constantly explored more diverse and flexible business models, and introduced specialized teams to improve operational quality and efficiency. In 2025, the company's total volume of end-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling reached a record high. The business models continued to mature, internal management was consistently optimized, and industry synergies were accelerated, laying a foundation for future business development. In 2025, the company also achieved notable results in cross-segment industry synergies. The industrial linkages between the Magnetic Materials Business Division and the Rare Earth Business Division, the industry sharing between the Elevator Business Division and the Magnetic Materials Business Division, and the upstream-downstream resonance between the operations segment and the Rare Earth Business Division demonstrated the wisdom and commitment of the company's entire management team. Regarding the company's main business operations, HuaHong Technology's 2025 Annual Report disclosed: The company has consistently upheld its corporate mission of "Serving the Circular Economy, Creating a Green Life" and steadfastly adhered to its corporate spirit of "Striving, Fact-Based, Innovation, and Dedication," committing to becoming a renewable resource processing equipment manufacturer and a comprehensive resource recycling and utilization operator serving global markets. The company actively deployed renewable resource operation businesses, building a circular economy industry chain centered on end-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling, extending downstream to the comprehensive utilization of steel scrap, rare earth recycling materials, and other metallic and non-metallic resources, while continuously exploring possibilities for expansion into related industries such as high-end manufacturing and smart manufacturing. During the reporting period, the company's main business was divided into four major segments: "Renewable Resource Equipment and Operations," "High-End Manufacturing of Elevator Parts," "Comprehensive Utilization of Rare Earth Resources," and "Rare Earth Magnetic Materials." HuaHong Technology's corporate development strategy and business plan announced in its 2025 Annual Report indicate: The company's overall development approach is as follows: strengthen product upgrades and technological innovation in renewable resource processing equipment to further consolidate its leading position in the renewable resource processing equipment industry; actively deploy renewable resource operation businesses, vigorously develop the end-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling business, and use this as a main line to expand the comprehensive recycling and utilization of downstream steel scrap, rare earth scrap, and other metallic and non-metallic resources, building the company into a well-known enterprise in the circular economy sector. It will continue to advance the company's dual-wheel drive strategy, increase R&D, production, and sales of precision elevator parts, thereby building Weilman into a global industry leader in elevator signal systems and safety components; through fund operations, equity investments, mergers and acquisitions, and other capital operation models, accelerate the enhancement of the company's capital operation capabilities, achieve resource optimization and integration, continuously monitor extension opportunities in the upstream and downstream industry chain, and actively explore possibilities for the company's expansion into environmental protection, smart manufacturing, and IoT-related industries, forming new driving forces for company development and further enhancing its core competitiveness and profitability. According to the latest SMM price report: On July 17, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 766,000 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. On July 17, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices declined, while inquiries in the spot market were sluggish. As a result, offers from Pr-Nd oxide suppliers edged lower. Nevertheless, most market participants remain confident about the outlook and showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, which limited the actual decline in oxide prices, and low-cost supply remained scarce and hard to find. In the metals market, prices also fell. Magnetic material enterprises saw poor new orders, limiting their ability to accept high metal prices; purchases mainly served rigid restocking demand, leading to sluggish inquiries in the metal market. Upstream and downstream sectors remained locked in a stalemate, with the metals segment continuing to face pressure. In the short term, due to the stagnant trading, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways in a narrow range. Recommended Reading:

JL MAG Rare-Earth's July 15 investor relations activity record shows: 1. Please elaborate on the company's expected H1 2026 performance growth? JL MAG Rare-Earth responded: In H1 2026, the company's management upheld the annual operating policy of "adhering to compliance and integrity, staying customer-oriented, focusing on the magnetic material core business, building 20,000 mt of capacity on schedule, actively deploying embodied robot motor rotors, and scaling new heights." Through measures such as technological innovation, organizational optimization, digitalization, and lean management, while fully ensuring contract fulfillment and delivery to a broad client base, the company achieved steady growth in operating performance. The company continued to consolidate its leading position in the new energy and environmental protection sectors and actively explored emerging markets, with operating revenue expected to grow approximately 30% YoY. In the NEV and parts sector, revenue grew approximately 30% YoY; in the robot and industrial servo motor sector, revenue grew approximately 90% YoY, with small-volume deliveries of embodied robot motor rotors already underway. In H1 2026, net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 400 million to 460 million yuan, up 31% to 51% YoY; deducted non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 370 million to 430 million yuan, up 57% to 83% YoY. In Q2 2026, net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 210 million to 270 million yuan, up 43% to 85% YoY and up 7% to 39% QoQ; deducted non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 190 million to 250 million yuan, up 50% to 97% YoY and up 9% to 44% QoQ. 2. What is the latest progress of the company's embodied robot business? JL MAG Rare-Earth responded: Robots liberate human productivity and represent a key direction in the new wave of technological change, with broad industry development prospects. The company is actively cooperating with world-renowned tech companies in the R&D of embodied robot motor rotors and has made small-volume product deliveries. In addition, through direct investment or participation in industrial funds, the company is making strategic deployments in key links of the relevant industry chain to accelerate industrial synergy and commercialization. 3. What about the company's raw material supply and recycling layout? JL MAG Rare-Earth responded: The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with major rare earth raw material suppliers, including China Northern Rare Earth Group and China Rare Earth Group, and fully leverages the advantage of controlling Yin Hai New Materials to deploy upstream rare earth recycling business, building a diversified rare earth resource supply system. The company was an early mover in rare earth recycling in the industry and currently holds a 51% stake in Yin Hai New Materials. Leveraging the group's manufacturing system, recyclable materials such as magnetic sludge and off-cuts generated during production at the company's various plants can be steadily supplied to Yinhai New Materials for recycling and processing, meeting its production needs while providing strong assurance for the company's raw material supply. In 2025, the company recovered a total of 3,681 mt of rare earth raw materials. Yinhai New Materials has already generated operating revenue and profit contributions. In 2025, it achieved operating revenue of 195 million yuan and net profit of 50.5 million yuan (the above are actual operating results, excluding adjustments related to purchase price allocation). Currently, Yinhai New Materials has passed ISO 14021 certification, and its main products have received certification for 100% recycled content under international standards. 4. Please elaborate on the situation regarding the company's planned acquisition of a partial stake in Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange Co., Ltd.? JL MAG Rare-Earth responded: In order to implement the company's development strategy and enhance its overall competitiveness, the company plans to acquire, through public listing and transfer on the Inner Mongolia Property Rights Exchange Center, a 9.24% equity interest in Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the "Rare Earth Exchange") held by China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co., Ltd. According to the appraisal report issued by Northern Asia Asset Appraisal Co., Ltd., as of the valuation date of December 31, 2025, the total equity value of the Rare Earth Exchange assessed using the market approach was 239 million yuan, a premium of 27.86 million yuan over the net asset book value of 211.14 million yuan as of the valuation date, representing an appreciation rate of 13.19%. The estimated transaction price for the target equity is 22.08 million yuan. Rare earths are the core raw material for producing NdFeB permanent magnet materials. The Rare Earth Exchange serves as a specialized trading platform for rare earth (metal) resources. If this equity acquisition is successfully completed, it will further enhance the company's ability to secure rare earth raw material supply, strengthen its overall competitiveness, and consolidate its market position in the rare earth permanent magnet industry. The company will, in accordance with the principle of cooperative co-construction and mutual benefit, fully leverage its own strengths to assist the Rare Earth Exchange in becoming a national-level rare earth (metal) resource trading platform. This planned acquisition of part of the Rare Earth Exchange's equity constitutes a state-owned asset transfer matter, and the transaction must strictly follow the statutory procedures for state-owned asset transactions, including approvals and listing. The company will monitor progress and fulfill its information disclosure obligations in accordance with relevant regulations. JL MAG Rare-Earth's semi-annual performance forecast released on July 1 showed: Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is estimated to be between 400 million yuan and 460 million yuan in H1 2026, up 31.17% to 50.84% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, JL MAG Rare-Earth stated in its announcement: 1. In H1 2026, the company's management adhered to the annual operating policy of "upholding legal compliance, maintaining client focus, concentrating on the core magnetic materials business, adding 20,000 tons of capacity on schedule, proactively developing motor rotors for embodied robots, and scaling new heights." Through measures such as technological innovation, organizational optimization, digital transformation, and lean management, while ensuring full performance of contracts and delivery to a broad client base, the company achieved steady growth in its operating results. The company continued to strengthen its leading position in the new energy and environmental protection sectors and actively explored emerging markets. Revenue is expected to rise by approximately 30% YoY. Specifically, in the NEV and auto parts segment, revenue rose by about 30% YoY; in the robotics and industrial servo motor segment, revenue rose by approximately 90% YoY, and embodied robot motor rotor products have already seen small-batch deliveries. 2. During the reporting period, the estimated impact of non-recurring gains and losses on net profit was approximately 32 million yuan, compared with non-recurring gains and losses (after tax) of 70.94 million yuan in the same period last year. 3. During this reporting period, due to A-share and H-share equity incentives and the issuance of H-share convertible bonds, related expenses such as share-based compensation costs and financial expenses totaled approximately 121 million yuan. No such expenses existed in the same period last year. A recently issued announcement by JL MAG Rare-Earth showed that, to implement its development strategy and enhance overall competitiveness, it planned to acquire a 9.24% stake in Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange Co., Ltd. held by China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co., Ltd. through a public listing and transfer process on the Inner Mongolia Equity Exchange , According to the appraisal report issued by Northern Asia Assets Appraisal Co., Ltd., the total equity value of the Rare Earth Exchange assessed using the market approach as of the valuation reference date of December 31, 2025, was 239 million yuan, representing an increase of 27.8551 million yuan over the net asset book value of 211.1449 million yuan on that date, an appreciation rate of 13.19%. The expected transaction price for the target equity stake is 22.0836 million yuan. In accordance with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange ChiNext Listing Rules, the Company’s Articles of Association, and other relevant regulations, this external investment falls within the approval authority of the CEO. It does not constitute a connected transaction, nor does it constitute a major asset restructuring as defined under the Administrative Measures for Major Asset Restructurings of Publicly Listed Companies. In its 2025 annual report, JL MAG described its main business and product applications as follows: The company is a high-tech enterprise integrating R&D, production and sales of high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials, magnetic assemblies, embodied robot motor rotors, and comprehensive recycling of rare earths. It is a leading supplier of rare earth permanent magnet materials for the new energy and environmental protection sectors. Its products are widely used in NEVs and auto parts, energy-efficient inverter air conditioners, wind power generation, robotics and industrial servo motors, 3C electronics, low-altitude aircraft, energy-saving elevators, rail transit, and other fields, and it has established long-term and stable partnerships with leading enterprises in these fields both within and outside China. The company has been actively deploying in the robotics field: on one hand, it collaborates with internationally renowned technology companies on the R&D and capacity building for embodied robot motor rotors, with small-batch product deliveries; on the other hand, through direct investment or participation in industry funds, it makes strategic moves in key links of the relevant industry chain to accelerate industrial synergy and commercialization. Regarding the 2026 annual operating plan, JL MAG Rare-Earth stated in its 2025 annual report: The company's 2026 business guideline: "Adhere to legal compliance, uphold customer orientation, focus on the core business of magnetic materials, build new capacity of 20,000 mt as scheduled, actively position in embodied robot motor rotors, and scale new heights." In accordance with the company's business guideline and on the premise of legal compliance, the company will focus on advancing the following efforts: 1. Orderly release of capacity under construction. In 2026, some of the company's projects under construction will gradually release capacity. The specific release progress will comprehensively consider factors such as equipment commissioning and market demand, advancing the commissioning and ramp-up of new capacity in an orderly manner. 2. Continuous enhancement of R&D capabilities. 3. Continuous optimization of product structure. The company will center on client needs, continuously enrich the product portfolio for different application scenarios, and enhance the resilience of the product structure and client stickiness. At the same time, it will steadily advance the layout of projects such as magnetic components and embodied robot motor rotors, equip dedicated production lines and professional teams, and drive the upgrade of small-batch production lines to large-scale, standardized manufacturing and quality systems. 4. Continuous improvement of operational capabilities. 5. Strengthening capital expenditure efficiency. 6. Improving incentive mechanisms and shareholder returns. 7. Advancing ESG system construction. As for the risks the company may face, JL MAG Rare-Earth stated when introducing the risk of price fluctuations in rare earth raw materials: Rare earth metals are the main raw materials for producing NdFeB magnetic steel. China is an important global supply hub for rare earth raw materials. Wild swings in rare earth raw material prices will adversely impact the company's production and sales in the short term. Countermeasures: The company has built manufacturing plants in Ganzhou, Jiangxi, a major production area for heavy rare earth, and Baotou, Inner Mongolia, a major production area for light rare earth. The company has established long-term cooperative relationships with major rare earth raw material suppliers, including China Northern Rare Earth Group and China Rare Earth Group. At the same time, the company strives to mitigate the adverse impact of rare earth raw material price fluctuations on its operating performance through measures such as pre-purchasing rare earth raw materials based on orders on hand, establishing price adjustment mechanisms with key clients, optimizing formulations, and improving processes. Looking back at the price performance of Pr-Nd alloy in H1 this year, it can be seen that: : The average price of Pr-Nd alloy on June 30 was 905,000 yuan/mt. Compared with its average price of 735,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, the increase in H1 was 23.13%. The annual daily average price of Pr-Nd alloy in H1 this year was 904,650.86 yuan/mt, compared with 529,559.83 yuan/mt in H1 2025, with the semi-annual daily average price increasing by 375,091.03 yuan/mt, for a YoY increase of 70.83%. According to SMM's price quotes, on July 17, the price of Pr-Nd alloy was 920,000-930,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 925,000 yuan/mt, down 0.54% from the previous trading day. Currently, rare earth market prices are trending slightly downward. Focusing on the Pr-Nd market, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices declined, while spot market inquiries were sluggish. Affected by this, suppliers lowered their offers for Pr-Nd oxide. However, most industry participants remain confident about the market outlook and show a strong willingness to hold prices firm, resulting in a relatively small actual decline in oxide prices, with low-priced goods still scarce and hard to find. Metal market prices also slipped. New orders at magnetic material enterprises were poor, limiting their capacity to accept high-priced metals, with procurement mainly driven by rigid restocking demand, leading to sluggish metal market inquiries. The upstream-downstream stalemate persisted in negotiations, with the metal side continuing to face pressure. It is expected that in the short term, due to sluggish trading activity, Pr-Nd product prices will likely move sideways in a narrow range. Recommended Reads:

July 17 – North China ports: 46% Australian lumps 42.5-43 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African semi-carbonate 35.7-36.2 yuan/mtu, down WoW; Gabonese 40-40.4 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African high-iron 30-30.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African mid-iron 36-36.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW. South China ports: 46% Australian lumps 43.2-43.7 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate 36.8-37.1 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese 40.9-41.4 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African high-iron 32.3-32.8 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African mid-iron 37.5-38 yuan/mtu, up WoW.

On July 17, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) came in at -$146.15/dmt, down $13.31/dmt from the previous reading of -$132.84/dmt. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98%-99%. The copper concentrates spot market saw slightly more activity this week compared to the previous week. In spot transactions, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Las Bambas to a smelter at a deduction of $15-16/dmt from the average of the SMM and FM indices, for September loading; meanwhile, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Calcine at a premium of $5/dmt to the average of the SMM and FM indices; a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore and 10,000 mt of Bisha at a fixed price of -$140/mt to a smelter, for August-September loading; a trader sold 20,000 mt of clean ore at a fixed price of -$155/mt, for Q4 loading; additionally, a trader sold 20,000-30,000 mt of bundled ore at a deduction of $20/dmt from the index, for loading from Q4 2026 to Q1 2027; a mine sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at a fixed price of -$160/dmt, for September loading, QP: M+3. On the tender front, the previous Jabal tender result was out, with a deal concluded on the trader side at a fixed price of -$250/dmt for 40,000-50,000 mt, for H2 shipment; the result of the Newmonet tender for 20,000-30,000 mt of Red Christ is still pending; in addition, SMM learned that a large mine previously tendered 100,000 mt in physical content of copper concentrates, with bids from traders coming in at over -$200/dmt for 2026 shipment, -$200/dmt for 2027 shipment, and over -$100/dmt for 2028 shipment. Overall, the copper concentrates spot market continued its trend of probing lower this week, with spot TCs declining further from the prior period. Smelters still had rigid restocking demand, but as TCs continued to drop, copper smelting profits were further squeezed, making smelters more cautious about accepting low-priced cargoes and tilting purchases more toward rigid restocking. Meanwhile, mine tenders and trader offers kept edging lower, and the low-priced spot deals further shook smelters' psychological price levels, widening the divergence between buyers and sellers. In the short term, spot copper concentrate TCs still face downward pressure, with the market closely watching smelters' acceptance of deeply negative cargoes. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's copper concentrate imports in June 2026 were 2.335 million mt, down 1.10% MoM and edged up 0.03% YoY. From January to June 2026, cumulative imports of copper concentrates reached 14.609 million mt, edging down 0.9% YoY. Chile is currently being affected by a strong winter frontal system, with the main impact expected to be concentrated from July 16 to 17 and likely to persist through July 20–21. This weather event shows notable regional differences: moderate to heavy snowfall and strong winds are forecast for the high-altitude and mountainous areas of northern mining regions such as Antofagasta and Atacama, while central to southern Chile faces persistent heavy rainfall, raising the risk of localized flooding, landslides, and mudslides. The Chilean government has activated a preventive emergency response, and mining authorities have been communicating contingency plans with major mining enterprises. According to SMM’s communications with local industry participants, heavy snowfall and rainfall could cause short-term disruptions to road transport and port loading at some mine sites, with a risk of delays in the shipment pace of copper concentrates and copper cathode. The actual impact will depend on the duration of the weather and operating conditions at the major mines. On July 16, BHP released its production report, showing that group copper production in the fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30 was 491,900 mt, down 5% YoY and below the 516,200 mt recorded a year earlier, driven by lower output at the Escondida and Pampa Norte mines. For fiscal 2026, total group copper production was 1.95 million mt, down 3% YoY, a pullback from the 2.02 million mt in fiscal 2025 but the second consecutive year close to 2 million mt. Among them, Escondida—the world’s largest copper ore mine—produced 1.2612 million mt of copper on a 100% basis for the full year, down 3% YoY, mainly due to a decline in head grade at the beneficiation plant from 1.02% a year earlier to 0.90%. On July 17, SMM data on copper concentrates inventory at eleven ports showed 648,200 mt in physical content, down 42,000 mt from July 10. The main declines came from Fangchenggang Port and Qinzhou Port, down 30,000 mt and 21,000 mt WoW, respectively.

This week, nickel prices showed a pattern of consolidation and rebound with the center shifting higher. US June CPI and PPI both cooled more than expected, significantly easing market concerns over Fed rate hikes, and the US dollar index fell to a three-week low. At the industry level, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources made it clear that it would not raise nickel ore quotas across the board, only making limited additions for smelters facing raw material shortages, fully correcting the market’s previously priced-in expectations of significantly looser quotas. Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate, disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while risks of sulfur supply disruptions remained. Driven by these three bullish factors, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract broke through the 130,000 yuan/mt mark on July 16, touching 133,000 yuan/mt intraday, while LME nickel concurrently climbed above $17,000/mt and hit a more than three-week high. In the spot market, the SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 129,710 yuan/mt this week, up 1,150 yuan/mt WoW. The Jinchuan refined nickel premium weakened this week, falling to 2,000 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts were in the range of -300 to -500 yuan/mt. Pressured by rebounding futures prices and the downstream entering the high-temperature off-season, spot transactions were poor this week, and the market was sluggish. On the macro front, in the US, the June CPI eased to 3.5% YoY (prev. 4.2%), and core CPI to 2.6% YoY (prev. 3.3%), both coming in below expectations. The June PPI fell 0.3% MoM, turning negative for the first time this year. After the data release, market expectations for Fed rate hikes were pushed back to October, and the US dollar index weakened under pressure. The US-Iran conflict continued to heat up this week. The US blockaded Iranian ports from July 15, Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz would be “indefinitely closed,” and the Houthis threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Shipping through Hormuz fell sharply, and risks of sulfur supply disruptions continued to grow. In China, GDP grew 4.7% YoY in H1, and in Q2 grew 4.3% YoY and 0.9% QoQ. The central bank said it would step up counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to consolidate the positive momentum of stable economic growth. China’s macro policies remained supportive, providing a floor for the commodity market. On the inventory front, on the inventory front, this week, Shanghai bonded zone inventory was around 1,700 mt, flat WoW. China’s social inventory was about 128,000 mt, up 1,600 mt WoW in inventory buildup. From the weekly average price perspective, the nickel price center shifted higher this week, but the sharp pullback on Friday indicates strong resistance above 130,000 yuan/mt. Without fresh bullish catalysts, nickel prices are expected to return to the 125,000–130,000 yuan/mt range and consolidate.

June Price Review: The monthly average price of non-oriented silicon steel exhibited a bottoming-out decline in June. On the supply-demand front, the market shifted from a slight balance to a narrow undersupply, with fundamentals continuing to improve marginally. The oversupply that previously weighed on the market gradually eased, providing price support. Spot prices performed stronger than expected, edging down only slightly. As a transitional month shifting from off-season to peak season, the supply-demand pattern improved in June. Fundamental Analysis: China's production schedule for non-oriented silicon steel continued to decline in July. Comparing with the same period in previous years, the scheduled production in July 2026 was lower than that of July 2025. Analyzing by grade, the proportion of NEV grades in the July production schedule rebounded to 15%, high grades accounted for 19%, while the proportion of low and mid-end grades pulled back to 66%. Steel mills continued to adjust their product mix, with the scheduled production of conventional low and mid-end grades shrinking accordingly. While total scheduled production continued to contract, supply-side pressure persisted. Maintaining original production levels for NEV and high-grade resources while significantly reducing low and mid-end grades optimized the supply structure to some extent, supporting market resilience. Downstream demand for non-oriented silicon steel showed structural divergence in May. In the home appliance sector, total silicon steel consumption pulled back MoM, with air conditioners remaining the core demand driver. Demand from the automotive sector was strong, with silicon steel consumption climbing to a high level for the period in May. Specifically, passenger NEVs provided the largest support for automotive silicon steel demand. Overall, traditional demand from home appliances weakened marginally, while NEV demand continued to strengthen. The demand center shifted toward the automotive sector, generating structural benefits for high-grade and NEV-grade non-oriented silicon steel. July Price Outlook: Supply side, China's planned production schedule for non-oriented silicon steel continued to decrease in July 2026, with reductions primarily focused on low and mid-end grades. On one hand, the off-season impact became more pronounced, downstream demand was soft, and purchasing interest declined, curbing production activity. On the other hand, industry leaders like Baowu and Shougang kept base prices unchanged in July, prioritizing price stability, but bearish sentiment persisted, making prices more likely to fall than rise. Most producers were loss-making and cut production autonomously. Demand side, in the home appliance sector, enterprises slowed their production pace, with orders falling MoM. The 618 shopping festival provided no significant order stimulus. Affected by low demand, high inventory, and high costs, some enterprises cut their production schedules ahead of schedule, and the implementation of new energy efficiency standards for some appliance products led to model upgrades that restricted production. In the automotive sector, automakers generally maintained normal production paces, with some increasing production schedules this month to meet mid-year targets. However, the sales promotions of the 618 festival and policies yielded limited boosting effects, and sales pressure persisted. Breaking it down, NEVs remained the main sales driver this month, orders for internal combustion engine vehicles showed no significant improvement, and exports were mainly directed to markets such as Russia, South America, and Southeast Asia, with the industry's full-year export volume expected to reach 12 million units. Cost side, with steel mill profits continuing to shrink and expectations of normalized local environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal production is expected to continue to pull back. But as the off-season impact expands, the average hot-rolled coil price in July is expected to decline further MoM from June, though the extent of the decline will narrow. In summary, SMM expects that prices for low and mid-end non-oriented silicon steel will drift lower overall in July 2026, with some room for price reductions.

[SMM Analysis: Price Spread Between Copper Cathode and Copper Scrap Widens by Over 2,000 Yuan, Driving Dominance of Hedging-Based Procurement] This week (July 13 – July 16), the copper scrap market operated under a triple framework of retreat after rapid rise in copper prices, ongoing compliance constraints from reverse invoicing, and intensifying high-temperature off-season. The most-traded SHFE copper contract surged to 105,020 yuan/mt mid-week, gaining nearly 2,000 yuan/mt for the full week compared to the start of the week. However, copper scrap was supported by compliance costs and suppliers holding prices firm, with full-week price fluctuations of less than 1,000 yuan/mt. The price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap widened from 2,445 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 3,923 yuan/mt, a WoW increase of over 2,200 yuan/mt, entirely driven by the unilateral rise in copper cathode prices. The resilience of copper scrap itself was the key supply-side feature this week, which directly gave rise to hedging-based procurement demand from secondary copper rod enterprises.....

This week, Shanghai spot copper premiums climbed continuously, hitting a new high for the year. Early this week, social inventory destocking accelerated, the inter-month backwardation spread widened significantly, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm was strong, and spot premiums climbed to a premium of 160-270 yuan/mt, marking a new year-to-date high. Mid-week, as delivery approached, some suppliers’ selling behavior temporarily depressed premiums, but with support from the backwardation structure, the pullback in premiums was limited. After the contract rollover, available spot cargoes remained tight, suppliers continuously raised their quotes, and the center of premiums further shifted upward. By Friday, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums were reported at a premium of 350-450 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 400 yuan/mt, hitting another new high for the year. According to SMM data, social inventory in Shanghai recorded 76,500 mt, down 9,100 mt WoW from last Thursday; social inventory in Jiangsu recorded 19,500 mt, down 6,900 mt from last Thursday, with both inventories at year-to-date lows. Looking ahead to next week, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to maintain a strong pattern. Supply side, current social inventories are at year-to-date lows, available spot cargoes remain tight, arrivals of domestic and imported supplies are low, and the short-term tight supply situation is unlikely to reverse quickly. The LME ratio of cancelled warrants has continued to rise, with some warrants cancelled and shipped to the Chinese market, expected to arrive at the end of this month or early next month, when the tight supply may ease. Spread structure side, the high inter-month backwardation spread persists, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm is strong, providing robust support for spot premiums. Demand side, downstream acceptance of high premiums is limited, purchases are mainly for essential needs, willingness to chase prices is insufficient, and further upside room for premiums may be constrained by high prices. Overall, under the interplay of low inventory, backwardation support, and high-price demand suppression, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2608 contract are expected to maintain premiums next week, with the overall strong trend persisting.

[Traders Continue to Hold Prices Firm and Sell, Shanghai Spot Premiums Rise Significantly]: This week, Shanghai spot premiums rose significantly, up 30 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 130-150 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract..