SMM News, May 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.19%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.1%. SHFE lead rose 0.54%, and SHFE zinc edged up. SHFE tin rose 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.59%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.11%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.04%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.28%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.59%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.38%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.19%, rebar fell 0.38%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.76%, and stainless steel rose 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.07%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.78%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper fell 0.06%. LME aluminum rose 0.15%, and LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.35%. LME tin rose 0.34%. LME nickel rose 0.16%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.43%, and COMEX silver fell 0.33%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.13%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.61%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.34%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.57%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.51%, closing at 3,032.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,570 yuan/mt, down 955 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,465 yuan/mt, down 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front Domestic: [NDRC: Supply-demand relationship is expected to further improve, and prices are expected to continue operating within a stable range] Li Chao, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that prices in April continued the mild rebound trend since H2 last year, releasing positive signals of improving supply-demand relationship and optimized market order. Although the trajectory of international energy prices remains uncertain, China has a solid foundation for maintaining overall price stability. As a series of macro policies are further implemented, the supply-demand relationship is expected to further improve, and prices are expected to continue operating within a stable range. [NDRC: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, investment of over 5 trillion yuan is expected for new-type power grid construction] The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting proposed strengthening the planning and construction of "six networks," including water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks. On May 22, the NDRC held a press conference. At the conference, Li Chao, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the NDRC, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, investment of over 5 trillion yuan is expected to be allocated for the planning and construction of a number of power transmission corridors and inter-provincial power supply projects, optimizing ultra-high voltage and extra-high voltage AC networks by layer and zone, and implementing a number of urban distribution network renewal projects, weak-area grid renovation projects, and rural grid frequent outage remediation projects. Li Chao stated that based on comprehensive analysis, the national peak electricity load this summer is expected to reach approximately 1.6 billion kW , an increase of about 90 million kW YoY, equivalent to adding the electricity load of an entire Henan Province. [NDRC: Guiding domestic large AI models to step up efforts in adapting to domestically produced computing chips] Li Chao, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the NDRC, stated at a press conference on May 22 that core technologies and application demand in the artificial intelligence sector are both showing rapid growth trends. China has consistently adhered to systematic planning, sector-specific policies, open sharing, and secure controllability, promoting the broad and deep integration of artificial intelligence with all industries and sectors of the economy and society, guiding domestic large AI models to step up efforts in adapting to domestically produced computing chips, and ensuring independent controllability, development for good, and steady long-term progress while maintaining rapid development, so that all people can share the fruits of AI development. This is also a prominent feature of China's AI development. The PBOC conducted 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 500 million yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.05%, at 99.25. The White House said: The swearing-in ceremony for new Fed Chairman Warsh will be held at 11:00 AM on May 22 (23:00 Beijing time). US Fed's Barkin stated that the ability of businesses and consumers to absorb the latest round of supply shocks will determine whether the US central bank can continue to "look through" higher inflation without choosing to raise interest rates. In remarks prepared for a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Thursday, Barkin said: "After inflation has been above our 2% target for more than five consecutive years, it is worth considering whether the cumulative effect of so many rounds of shocks could cause the 'anchor' of inflation expectations to loosen." He also said: "For me, the key question is how much more pressure businesses, consumers, and inflation expectations can withstand." Barkin also said he is increasingly concerned that the US may have entered a "new phase" in which supply shocks will become more frequent. These shocks could stem from multiple factors, including heightened geopolitical tensions, fragmentation of the trade system, more extreme weather events, rising government debt, and other structural forces. He also noted that, for now, the US Fed's monetary policy stance is "in a good place" to address risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. The probability of keeping rates unchanged through July was 85.4%, with a 14.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0.4% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike. In addition, Nomura Securities expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in 2026, having previously forecast interest rate cuts in September and December this year. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final for May, US one-year inflation expectations final for May, US Conference Board leading index MoM for April; UK GfK consumer confidence index for May, UK public sector net borrowing for April, UK seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM for April; Germany GfK consumer confidence index for June, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY final, Germany IFO business climate index for May; Japan core CPI YoY for April; and Canada retail sales MoM for March. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:41, both benchmarks rose. WTI crude rose 1.21%, and Brent crude rose 1.7%. The volatile US-Iran situation affected oil price movements, with market concerns over whether US-Iran negotiations could make progress supporting oil prices. Four sources said that seven major OPEC+ producing countries will most likely agree to a modest increase in the July production target when they meet on June 7, even though supply from several of them remains disrupted by the Iran war. Sources said the monthly production target set by the seven core OPEC+ members is expected to be raised by approximately 188,000 barrels per day. In Q1 2026, OPEC+ maintained production unchanged, but since April, the group has raised production targets monthly despite the ongoing war. However, since the UAE's exit from the group in May, the monthly production increase has been reduced. Analysts and delegates believe that while the UAE's departure weakened the group's influence over the market, it may have strengthened its internal cohesion. In addition, sources said two other OPEC+ meetings scheduled for June 7 are not expected to make any policy adjustments. IEA Executive Director Birol said on Thursday that the arrival of peak summer fuel demand, combined with the lack of new oil exports from the Middle East and continued inventory drawdowns, could push the oil market into a "danger zone" from July to August, but he did not elaborate further. In his speech, Birol said the world was in a state of oil surplus when the oil supply crisis triggered by the Iran war broke out, which helped cushion the impact, but inventories are now steadily declining. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► Other metals spot midday reviews will be updated shortly. Please refresh to check~

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, during the day, some downstream processing enterprises had restocking demand, and procurement sentiment rebounded slightly, but constrained by high copper prices, the actual increase in procurement volume was limited. In terms of market performance, suppliers continued to lower their offers during the second trading session, and their willingness to sell increased somewhat, but suppressed by weakening consumption demand, actual transactions remained sluggish. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to maintain a discount next week.

SMM May 22 update: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,570 yuan/mt, down 955 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,465 yuan/mt, down 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory increased significantly for the third consecutive day, mainly due to increased arrivals and reduced warehouse withdrawals. Although copper prices continued to decline, traders and end-users showed little enthusiasm for restocking, especially against the backdrop of some large enterprises actively reducing operating rates, making market trades even more subdued. Today, the procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 1.81, down 0.1 from the previous trading day, and the shipments sentiment was 2.49, up 0.07 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, downstream operating rates declined and procurement volume decreased, with spot trades remaining inactive.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,508/mt, dipped to $13,454.5/mt early in the session, then the price center gradually shifted upward, reaching $13,620/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $13,610/mt, down 0.33%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 273,000 lots, an increase of 143 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,000 yuan/mt, touched a low of 103,620 yuan/mt right after the opening, then the price center edged up with small fluctuations and reached a high of 104,250 yuan/mt, finally moving sideways to close at 104,100 yuan/mt, up 0.06%, with trading volume at 34,000 lots and open interest at 162,000 lots, an increase of 1,224 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.

[Destocking Inflection Point Largely Confirmed; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern] On the macro front, the US and Iran plan to sign a letter of intent to formally end hostilities and launch 30-day negotiations, though the trajectory of geopolitical risks remains to be seen. The US Fed meeting minutes were far more hawkish than expectations, with most policymakers supporting policy tightening, and expectations of liquidity tightening are overall bearish for metal prices. Recently, the heads of state of the US and Russia have made concentrated visits to China, which is expected to yield preliminary outcomes in trade and economic areas. On the fundamentals side, the supply gap and low inventory outside China still provide bottom support, but elevated inventory levels in China remain the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Coupled with weak trading performance in the spot market, this further limits the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue the LME outperforms SHFE pattern, fluctuating at highs.

Refined Cobalt: Spot refined cobalt prices continued to move sideways this week. Supply side, mainstream smelters held their offers steady, and traders maintained a stable spot-futures price spread ranging from parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, maintaining tight control over raw material inventory levels. The current metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salt remained at a low level, and with cobalt salt being difficult to sell, enterprises showed weak willingness to re-dissolve for refined cobalt production. The market is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, and price rises still depend on effective upward momentum from the cobalt salt side. Cobalt Intermediate Products: Cobalt intermediate product prices remained generally stable this week. Supply side, suppliers held firm bullish expectations, with offers consistently held above $26/lb. Demand side performance was flat; affected by weak cobalt salt prices, downstream smelters only made just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard products transacting near $25/lb. On the quota front, 2025 Q4 miner quota approvals were largely completed, while Q1 quota approvals were slower due to procedural constraints. Combined with tight logistics capacity in the DRC and low transport priority for cobalt cargo, the arrival of large-volume shipments at Chinese ports may be further delayed. In the short term, weighed down by weak demand, prices are likely to remain stable, but once downstream orders materialize and restocking demand is released, intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: Spot cobalt sulphate prices continued their gradual decline this week. Supply side, mainstream brand offer centers shifted down to 92,000-95,000 yuan/mt; some smelters and traders, under cash flow pressure, again made concessions on shipments, with low-priced cargoes probing down to 88,000-89,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises still primarily drew down existing inventory, with weak purchasing enthusiasm and only minimal just-in-time restocking. Some downstream players reported that LCO production schedules fell short of expectations, and they remained on the sidelines until orders were confirmed. Short-term prices are likely to continue moving sideways, with subsequent recovery still dependent on the release of downstream restocking demand.

LG Energy Solution announced on May 19 that it signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Honda and the city of Hanoi to cooperate on building public battery swapping stations for electric two-wheelers. Starting in the third quarter of this year, the parties will build around 50 battery swapping stations in major areas of Hanoi and introduce 500 electric two-wheelers to begin the demonstration project.

May 20, 2026 At first glance, the price of silver appears to be stuck in a rut, with a sustained breakout above stubborn resistance levels still a long way off. But this calm is deceptive: according to experts, an environment is brewing beneath the surface of the financial system that could provide precious metals with massive tailwinds in the coming quarters. While stock markets near record highs give many investors a false sense of security, systemic risks are growing. This opens up an exciting prospect for commodity investors: The signs of a major shift in capital—away from overvalued growth stocks and toward tangible assets—are becoming increasingly evident. Between inflationary pressure and tight supply A key driver of this scenario is persistent inflation. Geopolitical tensions and oil prices above $100 per barrel are fueling inflation and limiting central banks’ room to maneuver. Even with a weakening economy, an aggressive interest rate cut policy is nearly impossible under these conditions. For the silver market, this is a double catalyst: On the one hand, high energy costs are driving up mining operators’ expenses, which makes production more expensive and constricts supply. On the other hand, in an inflationary, uncertain environment, the appeal of real assets—which cannot be multiplied at will—is growing. The interest rate trap for tech stocks as a catalyst However, analysts see the real powder keg in the bond markets. Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds with yields above 5 percent are increasingly becoming a threat to highly valued tech stocks. Their enormous market capitalizations are heavily based on profits that lie far in the future. If interest rates remain persistently high, this valuation logic will deteriorate drastically. This is precisely where experts see the trigger for the so-called “great rotation”: as soon as capital is withdrawn from highly valued tech stocks, it must find new investment targets. Commodities, precious metals, and domestic producers would be the primary beneficiaries of this shift. Future Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a balancing act: He must stabilize the banking system while simultaneously withdrawing liquidity from the market to reduce the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet—a scenario that traditionally boosts physical silver and gold. Systemic risks bring physical assets into focus In addition to monetary policy, a growing loss of confidence in traditional financial assets supports the thesis of the precious metals bulls. High interest rates are putting massive pressure on highly indebted companies and the private credit sector. When stocks and bonds lose stability and the banking system appears more fragile, investors seek independence. In a highly leveraged environment, gold and silver offer precisely the advantage of not being dependent on the creditworthiness of third parties. International currency concerns also underpin this trend. India’s recent attempts to curb precious metal imports are a clear symptom of global anxiety about currency stability and the desire to preserve capital. Conclusion : The silver price is still in a consolidation phase. But if inflationary pressures, credit risks, and geopolitical tensions continue to intensify, the current market is not the end of the line, but rather the foundation for a revaluation, according to market experts. The looming rotation away from tech stocks toward real assets could be exactly the spark that catapults the silver price into a dynamic upward trend. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silber-vor-der-grossen-rotation-warum-der-scheinbare-stillstand-truegt

SMM May 19 update: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward, with the overall price center rising compared to the previous trading day. Today, some downstream enterprises began to stockpile, and overall market buying sentiment recovered somewhat. Affected by destocking, some sellers held prices firm, while others held back from selling. The mainstream spot quotations ranged from SMMA00 -10 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.06, up 0.11 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 3.06, up 0.04 MoM. Today, aluminum futures prices rose consecutively. In the central China market, suppliers' willingness to sell on rallies increased notably, and major suppliers showed weak willingness to hold prices firm. However, due to high absolute prices and premiums, downstream processing enterprises adopted a wait-and-see attitude with poor buying sentiment, and overall market transaction activity remained sluggish. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was between a premium of 20 yuan and a discount of 10 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.84, up 0.02 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 2.27, down 0.03 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 7,500 mt MoM today, with all three regions showing destocking trends.

SMM News on May 21: Guangdong region: Premiums in this region trended gradually lower this week, mainly due to increased arrivals coupled with weakening consumption. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 240 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from last Thursday; SX-EW copper was quoted at 90 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread of standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong showed Guangdong higher by 270 yuan/mt, and it widened to 300 yuan/mt mid-week. The relatively large price spread led to cargoes from Jiangxi and Shanghai flowing southward. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 20,300 mt, up 3,400 mt from last Thursday, while warrants totaled 4,900 mt, down 152 mt from last Thursday. Specifically: warehouse arrivals this week were 17,000 mt/week, up 4,000 mt/week WoW, higher than the annual average (14,000 mt/week), mainly due to increased arrivals from northern cargoes. Warehouse withdrawals were 13,700 mt/week, down 1,100 mt WoW, slightly below the annual average (14,200 mt/week), as terminal orders decreased and copper processing enterprises' operating rates declined. Looking ahead to next week, affected by increased supply and weakening demand (according to our understanding, a large copper processing enterprise will see significant production cuts next week), inventory is expected to continue increasing, and spot premiums are expected to continue declining. (The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute a direct recommendation for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)