This week, the macro market still repeatedly traded around the Middle East situation and expectations for the US Fed. At the beginning of the week, tensions among the US, Israel, and Iran eased slightly, the US dollar pulled back, and risk appetite recovered temporarily, allowing copper prices to stop falling and rebound at one point. However, Iran later denied progress in the relevant negotiations, geopolitical tensions tightened again, international oil prices rose sharply, and market concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced, with safe-haven sentiment rebounding accordingly and weighing on copper prices. Market bets on major central banks cutting interest rates this year were pushed back significantly, and expectations for macro liquidity weakened at the margin. Overall, this week’s copper price logic still centered on the repeated tug-of-war among geopolitical risks, oil prices, the US dollar, and interest rate cut expectations. Before macro uncertainty eases materially, copper prices will likely remain in the doldrums with rangebound fluctuations in the short term. Fundamentally, the logic of ore supply tightness continued. On March 25, Mitsubishi Materials announced that it will cease part of the copper concentrates processing business at the Onahama smelter in 2027, and explicitly mentioned the sharp deterioration in TC/RCs and pressure on smelting profits, further confirming the current reality of tight copper concentrates supply and continued damage to profitability on the smelting side. Global exchange copper inventories remained high, but demand in China had already started, and the pace of destocking in China’s social inventory exceeded market expectations. Supported by the opening of the import window and domestic demand, inventories outside China showed signs of flowing back into China. Looking ahead to next week, the macro theme is expected to remain largely unchanged. If the Middle East situation does not ease substantially, elevated oil prices and a relatively strong US dollar will likely continue to weigh on copper prices, and short-term resistance will remain; however, ore supply tightness, worsening smelting profits, and domestic demand will still provide some support for copper prices. Therefore, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound within a narrow range next week, with LME copper expected at $12,000-12,500/mt and SHFE copper expected at 93,000-96,500 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as imported cargoes arrive one after another, the pace of domestic inventory destocking may slow down. Although inventories are still being drawn down, spot premiums are expected to find it difficult to rise sharply due to the relatively high inventory base. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt.

Mitsubishi Materials Corporation said on Wednesday that it had decided to cease the processing of copper concentrates at the Onahama smelter and refinery, as well as the operation of related smelting facilities, by the end of March 2027.In a statement, the company said the outlook for the related business had become increasingly uncertain due to intensifying competition from overseas smelters and a sharp decline in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrates.The company said in a statement that it expected to record an impairment loss of 21 billion yen in Q4 of the current fiscal year ending this month, mainly related to the smelter's fixed assets.

[SMM Rare Earth Bulletin] Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and US President Trump reached an agreement under which both sides will strengthen cooperation on critical minerals to enhance supply chain resilience. The two countries signed a preliminary agreement to jointly develop deep-sea mineral resources, including rare earth-rich mud resources around Minamitorishima. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Department of Commerce will establish a working group to advance technical cooperation on projects involving rare earth mud and manganese nodules. In addition, Mitsubishi Materials is cooperating with US-based ReElement Technologies on a project in Indiana to recycle rare earths from waste magnets.

Frontier Lithium announced that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Panasonic Energy and Mitsubishi Corporation to explore potential collaboration in developing the North American battery supply chain. Under the agreement, Panasonic Energy has expressed interest in procuring lithium hydroxide from the PAK Lithium Project in Ontario, Canada. The project, which is being advanced through a joint venture between Frontier and Mitsubishi, plans to develop an upstream lithium mine and mill as well as a downstream lithium conversion facility. The project is expected to begin producing approximately 20,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium salts annually starting in 2030.

On Feb 24, 2026, China placed 20 Japanese firms, including Subaru, on an export control watchlist for unverifiable end-use of dual-use items. This signals tighter controls on critical minerals and tech amid geopolitical and supply chain shifts. The analysis examines the firms' supply chain roles and the long-term industrial implications.

On February 24, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 12 of 2026, adding 20 Japanese entities, including Subaru Corporation, to the export control "watch list" on the grounds of "inability to verify the end-users and end-uses of dual-use items." This move marks the first time since January 2026 that China has explicitly implemented such list-based management measures targeting Japanese enterprises, signaling a shift toward more precise, systematic, and in-depth development of export controls in the fields of critical minerals and high-tech materials. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of the core backgrounds of these 20 enterprises, reveal their deep-seated connections with supply chains of critical materials such as rare earths, and explore the potential impact of this measure on the future global industrial landscape.

Prior to the 2025 SMM APAC Lead-Acid Battery Industry Conference, organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), SMM led a delegation on a corporate visit to KIJO Battery (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. for exchange and insights.

On June 17, 2025, the 2025 SMM (2nd) Southeast Asia Automotive Supply Chain Conference , hosted by SMM, successfully concluded at the Hyatt Regency Bangkok Sukhumvit in Bangkok, Thailand! The conference brought together experts, scholars, corporate representatives, and government officials from the domestic and overseas automotive industries to discuss new trends and models in the development of the automotive industry, share the latest technologies and innovative achievements, promote collaborative development and cooperation within the automotive industry, facilitate the improvement and enhancement of the industry chain, help Chinese automotive industry chain enterprises better understand overseas investment environments, leverage the complementary advantages of various countries and regions in the automotive industry, and jointly support the healthy and sustainable development of the automotive industry! Yossapong Laoonual, Honorary Chairman of the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVA) and Director of the Mobility and Vehicle Technology Research Center (MOVE) at King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT) , stated that Thailand's electric vehicle vision (the 30@30 Policy) sets an ambitious goal of achieving 30% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the country's total production and 50% in newly registered vehicles by 2030. To achieve this goal, the government provides subsidies to original equipment manufacturers producing cars, pickup trucks, and motorcycles. The planned annual capacity for EVs exceeds 500,000 units, while the actual production in 2024 was 9,688 units, representing a 58-fold increase compared to the entire year of 2023. Although internal combustion engine vehicles still dominate the market, the growth rate of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) is very rapid, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 138% for BEVs from 2020 to 2024. By 2024, the market penetration rate of electric four-wheelers had reached 13%. Asst. Prof. Uthane Supatti, Ph.D., Vice Chairman of the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) , stated, when referring to the development of charging infrastructure in Thailand, that after 2023, the deployment of charging piles in Thailand has reached a significant turning point. Data shows that the number of charging piles increased by an astonishing 306.2% YoY in 2023. By 2023, the number of charging piles had already surpassed the original target set for 2025. However, there is still significant room for improvement to achieve the 2030 goal, and continued efforts in construction are needed. In addition, Yao Xinying, Director of SMM Steel Product Research , released the SMM Thailand Metal Prices and Thailand Steel Prices to help enterprises identify fair prices and reduce transaction costs. She stated that the Thai manufacturing industry still faces numerous obstacles in price referencing and settlement, such as the lack of authoritative price benchmarks, low price transparency, an imperfect settlement system, and susceptibility to market manipulation. SMM, closely connected with the upstream and downstream of the Thai metal industry chain, has launched the SMM Thailand Metal Prices to facilitate market transactions. Additionally, SMM has specially designed a networking session for automakers, bringing together over a dozen well-known domestic and overseas automakers, including BYD and BMW, to provide dedicated time for supply and demand exchanges between attending guests and automakers, facilitating collaboration discussions! 》Click to view the live video of the conference 》Click to view the live photo gallery of the conference 》Click to view the special coverage of the conference Opening Remarks Speaker: Logan Lu, CEO of SMM 》Click to view details of the on-site speech Guest Speaker Session Speech Topic: Latest Policies in Southeast Asia's Automotive Industry Guest Speaker: Yossapong Laoonual, Honorary Chairman of the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVA) and Director of the Mobility and Vehicle Technology Research Center (MOVE), King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT) Thailand's EV Vision (30@30 Policy) Thailand's EV Vision (30@30 Policy) sets an ambitious target of achieving 30% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the country's total production and 50% in new vehicle registrations by 2030. To achieve this, the government is providing subsidies to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) producing cars, pickup trucks, and motorcycles. 2024 Capacity and Market Performance The planned annual production capacity for EVs exceeds 500,000 units, with actual production in 2024 reaching 9,688 units, a 58-fold increase compared to the full year of 2023. Despite internal combustion engine vehicles still dominating the market, the growth rates of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been very rapid, with BEVs achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 138% from 2020 to 2024. By 2024, the market penetration rate of electric four-wheelers has reached 13%. Infrastructure Development By 2024, the ratio of electric passenger vehicles to charging stations is 28, and the number of DC charging piles has exceeded the 2025 target by 40%. These charging piles are mainly distributed in gas stations, department stores, office buildings, and other locations. Challenges Faced In Thailand's four-wheeled EV market, Chinese OEMs have already taken a dominant position and are benefiting from the 30@30 policy. To enhance the competitiveness of the local automotive industry, local auto parts suppliers should actively integrate into the global supply chain and collaborate with Chinese OEMs to improve price competitiveness and enhance technological capabilities. 》EVA Thailand Shares: Thailand's EV Outlook - Opportunities and Challenges Automotive Brand Building and Differentiation Strategies in the Southeast Asian Market Guan Xin, Deputy General Manager of Changan Automobile's Southeast Asia Division Zhang Cong, General Manager of Geely Radar Thailand Pichayuth Vongpattanasin, Vice President of Omoda&Jaecoo (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Roundtable Discussion: Pathways for Building and Optimizing Localized Supply Chains in Southeast Asia Guests: Martin Knoss, Regional President for Passenger Cars, Commercial Vehicles, and Off-Road Vehicles in the ASEAN Market Segment, Powertrain Solutions Division, Robert Bosch Automotive Technology (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Peter Klöpfer, Senior Manager, Rutronik Yoshinobu Egawa, Head of China Region, SIIX Corporation Ma Ming, General Manager, Joyson Safety Systems (Thailand) Guan Xin, Deputy General Manager of Changan Automobile's Southeast Asia Division Speech Topic: SMM Thailand Metal Price Launch & Thailand Steel Price Release - Discovering Fair Prices and Reducing Transaction Costs Guest Speaker: Yao Xinying, Director of Steel Product Research, SMM Why Launch SMM Thailand Metal Prices? The Thai manufacturing industry still faces numerous obstacles in terms of price reference and settlement. 1. Lack of an authoritative price benchmark Thailand lacks an independent third-party price publishing platform, resulting in a lack of unified and credible price reference standards for metal trading. This makes it difficult for buyers and sellers to reach fair pricing agreements, exacerbating market price confusion. 2. Low price transparency Due to the absence of professional price information disclosure channels, metal trading price data is scattered and not publicly available. Market participants are unable to obtain timely and accurate market information, increasing the difficulty of price discovery and the risk of trading decisions. 》SMM Thailand Metal Price Launch Event & Thailand Steel Price Release - Discovering Fair Prices and Reducing Trading Costs Roundtable Discussion: Southeast Asia Automotive Supply Chain - Import and Local Matters (Services, Prices, Landing Support Possibilities) Dong Rujun, Senior Overseas Market Manager, SMM Wu Zhengguo, Operations Director, Taichengfa Co., Ltd. Wu Zhongxian, Deputy General Manager, International Trade Company, CITIC Pacific Special Steel Group Co., Ltd. Bai He, General Manager, RTM International Aluminum Division, Mitsubishi Corporation Yingzhang Liang, Head of Sustainability, Metals & Mining, Asia Pacific, Bloomberg Intelligence Shine Peng, Sales General Manager, FedEx Speech Topic: Accelerating the Development of Thailand's EV Ecosystem Guest Speaker: Asst. Prof. Uthane Supatti Ph.D., Vice Chairman, Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) Transformation of Transportation Modes in Thailand Traditional transportation modes include speedboats, traditional buses, and traditional trains. After improvements, electric taxis, electric buses, and electric motorbike taxis have emerged. Following electrification development, subways, trams, and electric boats have also come into people's view. Thailand's EV Vision - The "30@30" Policy Thailand has set EV adoption and production targets for 2025 and 2030. By 2030, the following goals will be achieved: zero-emission vehicles will account for 30% of Thailand's total vehicle production; zero-emission vehicles will account for 50% of the country's vehicle usage. Passenger Vehicle Production: As of 2024, Thailand's total sedan production reached 1,468,997 units, a YoY decrease of 20%. Among them, passenger vehicle production was 558,440 units, a YoY decrease of 13.5%. Pure electric passenger vehicle production was 9,688 units, a YoY surge of 5,807.3%. 》Current Status of Thailand's EV Industry - How to Accelerate the Development of Thailand's EV Ecosystem? Roundtable Discussion: Accelerated Electrification and Localization Progress of Core Components in Thailand Xiaolong Xu, Deputy General Manager, Inovance United Power System (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Zhibiao Fu, Plant Manager, Shanghai Edrive (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Tongkarn Kaewchalermtong, Chair of the Transport and Logistics Working Group, ASEAN Federation of Engineering Organizations (AFEO) Sizhan Chen, Chairman of the Automotive Parts Industry Association, Federation of Thai Industries, and Deputy Secretary General, Thai Auto Parts Manufacturers Association Haofeng, Business Director, Gotion High-tech (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Presentation Topic: Industrialization Breakthrough of Ultra-Thin Soft Magnetic Materials for High-Efficiency Drive Motors Guest Speaker: Lugang Zhan, Executive Deputy General Manager, Hunan Hongwang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (At the speaker's request, this presentation will not be publicly available) Roundtable Discussion: Charging Pile Infrastructure: Unlocking the Last Mile of Southeast Asia's New Energy Revolution Liming Zhao, Overseas Sales Director for Southeast Asia, Teld International Soravis Sithicharoen, Charging Pile Business Head, Gentari Green Mobility Thailand Chavarin Chavarangkul, Charging Pile Head and Sales Director, Innopower Company Limited Presentation Topic: Operational Status of Lithium Carbonate Futures Guest Speaker: Bing Leng, Deputy General Manager, GFEX (At the speaker's request, this presentation will not be publicly available) Presentation Topic: Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC): A Hub of Prosperity Opportunities Guest Speaker: Songwut Apirakkhit, Executive Head of Next-Generation Automotive Sector, Eastern Economic Corridor Roundtable Discussion: Investment Models in Southeast Asia: Pros and Cons of Joint Ventures and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries Weien Lin, Director and Deputy General Manager, Thai Long United Automotive Co., Ltd. Kuixian Lin, Founder of Jiahua Group and CEO of NexV, Sdn Bhd Bin Zhao, President, Thai-Chinese Rayong Industrial Zone Development Co., Ltd. June 17 Main Conference Presentation Topic: Rizhao Steel's ESP Automotive Steel Supports Green and Efficient Development in the Automotive Industry Guest Speaker: Xutao Zheng, Deputy Director of Technology and Quality Department, Technical Center Director, Rizhao Steel Holding Group Co., Ltd. (At the speaker's request, this presentation will not be publicly available) Roundtable Discussion: How Southeast Asia's Local Supply Chain Serves European and US Markets Tuan Vi, Vice President of Supply Chain and Logistics for Asia Pacific, Schaeffler Vietnam Sridhar Ramakrishna, Application and Engineering Director, Tenneco Presentation Topic: Smart Logistics Systems and Technologies Facilitating Global Supply Chain Expansion Guest Speaker: Chunlong Jin, Deputy General Manager, Shanghai Boyi International Logistics Co., Ltd. (At the speaker's request, this presentation will not be publicly available) Roundtable Discussion: Potential Synergies in Battery Cell Chemical Materials Across Southeast Asia Logan Lu, CEO, SMM Tony, General Manager, Sunwoda EV Energy (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Rui Liu, Chairman, Innovate (Malaysia) New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Changxi Jin, Sales Director for Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, Electrolyte Division, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Shuzhan Yang, Deputy General Manager, BTR New Materials Group Co., Ltd., and Chairman, BTR Indonesia Automaker Demand Matching Session At the 2025 SMM (2nd) Southeast Asia Automotive Supply Chain Conference , SMM has specially designed a networking session for automakers, bringing together over a dozen renowned domestic and overseas automakers to provide attendees with dedicated time for supply and demand discussions and collaboration opportunities! 》Click to view the list of automakers participating in the exchange meeting Sign-in 》Click to view more highlights from the event With this, the 2025 SMM Southeast Asia (Thailand) Automotive Supply Chain Conference has come to a successful conclusion Thank you for the support of all industry colleagues See you next year! 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 SMM Southeast Asia (Thailand) Automotive Supply Chain Conference

In recent years, Southeast Asia has gradually become an important period in the global automotive industry, leveraging its unique geographical advantages, abundant resources, and vast consumer market, which contain rich supply and demand opportunities. As a regional leader, Thailand has attracted the attention of many Chinese NEV manufacturers. From June 16-17, 2025, the 2025 SMM (2nd) Southeast Asia Automotive Supply Chain Conference , hosted by SMM, will be grandly held at the Hyatt Regency Bangkok Sukhumvit in Bangkok, Thailand! At this conference, SMM has invited experts, scholars, enterprise representatives, and government officials from the domestic and overseas automotive industries to gather together, jointly explore new trends and models in the development of the automotive industry, and share the latest technologies and innovative achievements. This grand event aims to promote the coordinated development and cooperation of the automotive industry, facilitate the improvement and enhancement of the industry chain, help Chinese automotive industry chain enterprises better understand the overseas investment environment, fully leverage the complementary advantages of various countries and regions in the automotive industry, and jointly drive the healthy and sustainable development of the automotive industry! SMM will provide live video, photo, and text coverage of this summit throughout the event. Stay tuned! 》Click to view the live video of the conference 》Click to view the live photos of the conference 》Click to view the special report on the conference Opening Remarks Guest Speaker: Logan Lu, CEO of SMM 08:50-09:00 Latest Policies on the Southeast Asia Automotive Industry 09:00-09:20 Automotive Brand Building and Differentiation Strategies in the Southeast Asia Market Guan Xin, Deputy General Manager of Changan Automobile Southeast Asia Business Unit Zhang Cong, General Manager of Geely Radar Thailand Pichayuth Vongpattanasin, Vice President of Omoda&Jaecoo (Thailand) Co., Ltd. 09:20-09:50 Construction and Optimization Paths for Localized Supply Chains in Southeast Asia Guests: Martin Knoss, Regional President for Passenger Cars, Commercial Vehicles, and Off-Road Vehicles in the ASEAN Market Segment, Powertrain Solutions Division, Robert Bosch Automotive Technology (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Peter Klöpfer, Senior Manager of Rutronik Yoshinobu Egawa, Head of SIIX Corporation in China Ma Ming, General Manager of Joyson Safety Systems (Thailand) Guan Xin, Deputy General Manager of Changan Automobile Southeast Asia Business Unit 10:15-11:00 Speech Topic: SMM Thailand Metal Price Release Conference & Thailand Steel Prices Release - Discovering Fair Prices and Reducing Transaction Costs Guest Speaker: Yao Xinying, Director of Steel Research at SMM 11:00-11:10 Southeast Asia Automotive Supply Chain - Import and Local Matters (Services, Prices, and Landing Support Possibilities) Dong Rujun, Senior Overseas Market Manager of SMM Wu Zhengguo, Operations Director of Thai Chengfa Co., Ltd. Wu Zhongxian, Deputy General Manager of the International Trade Company of CITIC Pacific Special Steel Group Co., Ltd. Bai He, General Manager of the RTM International Aluminum Business Unit under Mitsubishi Corporation Leung Wing Cheung, Head of Asia Pacific Metals & Mining, Sustainability, Bloomberg Intelligence Shine Peng, Sales General Manager of FedEx 11:10-11:45 Speech Topic: Dedicated to EVAT Guest Speaker: Asst. Prof. Uthane Supatti Ph.D., Vice Chairman of the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) 13:30-13:50 Research on the Acceleration of Electrification and Localization Progress of Core Components in Thailand Xu Xiaolong, Deputy General Manager, Inovance United Power System (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Fu Zhibiao, Factory Director, Shanghai E-Drive (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Tongkarn Kaewchalermtong, Chair of the Transport and Logistics Working Group, ASEAN Federation of Engineering Organizations (AFEO) Chen Sizhan, Chair of the Auto Parts Industry Association, Federation of Thai Industries, and Deputy Secretary General, Thai Auto Parts Manufacturers Association Hao Feng, Business Director, Gotion New Energy (Thailand) Co., Ltd. 13:50-14:35 Speech Topic: Industrialisation Breakthrough of Ultra-thin Soft Magnetic Materials for High-efficiency Drive Motors Guest Speaker: Zhan Lugang, Executive Deputy General Manager, Hunan Hongwang New Material Technology Co., Ltd. 14:35-14:55 Charging Pile Infrastructure: Unlocking the Last Mile of the New Energy Revolution in Southeast Asia Zhao Liming, Overseas Sales Director, Southeast Asia Region, TELD International Soravis Sithicharoen, Head of Charging Pile Business, Gentari Green Mobility Thailand Chavarin Chavarangkul, Head of Charging Pile Business and Sales Director, Innopower Company Limited 15:20-16:05 Speech Topic: Operational Status of Lithium Carbonate Futures Guest Speaker: Leng Bing, Deputy General Manager, Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) 16:05-16:25 Speech Topic: Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC): Where Prosperity Begins Guest Speaker: Songwut Apirakkhit, Executive Head of the Next-Generation Automotive Sector, Eastern Economic Corridor 16:25-16:45 Selection of Investment and Factory Construction Models in Southeast Asia: Analysis of the Pros and Cons of Joint Ventures and Wholly-owned Enterprises Lin Weien, Deputy General Manager and Director, Tailong United Automobile Co., Ltd. Lin Kuixian, Founder of Jiahu Group and CEO of Sdn Bhd NexV Zhao Bin, President, Thai-Chinese Rayong Industrial Zone Development Co., Ltd. 16:45-17:30 June 17 Main Conference Speech Topic: Rizhao Steel's ESP Automotive Steel Supports Green and Efficient Development of the Automotive Industry Guest Speaker: Zheng Xutao, Deputy Director of the Technical Quality Department and Director of the Technology Center, Rizhao Steel Holding Group Co., Ltd. 09:00-09:20 How Can the Local Supply Chain in Southeast Asia Serve the European and US Markets? Tuan Vi, Vice President of Supply Chain and Logistics, Asia-Pacific Region, Schaeffler Vietnam Xu Xinyang, Assistant General Manager, IKD Co., Ltd. Sridhar Ramakrishna, Director of Applications and Engineering, Tenneco 09:20-10:05 Possibility of Linkage of Battery Cell Chemical Materials in Southeast Asia Logan Lu, CEO, SMM Tony, General Manager, Sunwoda Automotive Energy Technology (Thailand) Co., Ltd. Liu Rui, Chairman, Innoway (Malaysia) New Material Technology Co., Ltd. Kim Chang-seok, Sales Director for Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia Region, Electrolyte Business Division, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Yang Shuzhan, Deputy General Manager of BTR New Material Group Co., Ltd., Chairman of BTR Indonesia 10:30-11:15 Automaker Demand Matchmaking Meeting 14:00-17:30 》Click to View the Special Report on the 2025 SMM Southeast Asia (Thailand) Automotive Supply Chain Conference

A month ago, Caixin reported that as Trump's erratic tariff policies last month triggered a wave of selling of US assets, a new wave of "de-dollarization" was gaining momentum in Asia. Now, an increasing number of market participants are clearly unable to ignore the "rise" of this trend... On May 26, ASEAN committed in its newly released "Strategic Plan for the ASEAN Economic Community 2026-2030" to promoting the use of local currencies in trade and investment, and proposed measures such as expanding the use of local currencies for settlement and strengthening regional payment connectivity to mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. Lin Li, Head of Asia Global Markets Research at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), told the media that as Asian economies seek to reduce their reliance on the US dollar, particularly by using their own currencies as a medium of exchange to reduce foreign exchange risks, the trend of de-dollarization is strengthening. Although de-dollarization itself is not a new phenomenon, recent developments may have undergone a qualitative change. Investors and officials are beginning to recognize that, even if the US dollar has not been openly weaponized in trade negotiations, it can and has been used as a "bargaining chip." Mitul Kotecha, Head of Asia FX and Emerging Markets Macro Strategy at Barclays, said that this has prompted a reevaluation of investment portfolios that were previously heavily overweight in the US dollar. "Countries are focusing on the fact that the US dollar has been and can be used as a weapon in trade, direct sanctions, and other areas... I think this is the real change over the past few months," he said. Two Forces Accelerating the Evolution A recent report by Bank of America pointed out that the trend of ASEAN moving away from the US dollar is intensifying, driven by two main forces: ① Individuals and businesses are gradually starting to convert their US dollar savings back into local currencies; ② Large investors are beginning to hedge foreign investments more actively. Abhay Gupta, Asia Fixed Income and FX Strategist at Bank of America, said, "The de-dollarization process in ASEAN may accelerate, primarily through the conversion of foreign exchange deposits accumulated since 2022." In addition to ASEAN, BRICS countries, including India and China, are also actively developing and promoting their own payment systems to bypass traditional Western payment systems like SWIFT and reduce reliance on the US dollar. China has also been promoting the use of the yuan for bilateral trade settlement. Barclays' Kotecha pointed out that de-dollarization is a "continuous, slow process," but the gradual decline of the US dollar's status can be witnessed in both central bank reserve shares and trade settlement shares. He specifically mentioned the substantial overseas assets held by countries such as Singapore, South Korea, and China, which have significant potential for repatriating foreign exchange earnings. Andy Ji, Asia FX and Rates Analyst at ITC Markets, shares this sentiment. He points out that economies most reliant on trade will experience a more pronounced decline in demand for the US dollar. He specifically mentioned the economies within the 10+3 cooperation mechanism, which includes China, Japan, South Korea, and the 10 ASEAN member states. As of November last year, over 80% of trade in this region was still denominated in US dollars. Nomura Securities has observed a new trend: Asian investors are strengthening their hedging against US dollar exposure. Nomura notes that as Asian investors increasingly hedge against US dollar risks, a trend of de-dollarization is also emerging. Foreign exchange hedging refers to investors protecting themselves from significant currency value fluctuations by locking in exchange rates to avoid losses in the event of unexpected weakening or strengthening of the US dollar. Craig Chan, Global Head of FX Strategy at Nomura Securities, stated, "Some of the currencies that have recently performed strongly include the Japanese yen, South Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar." He observed that a considerable portion of foreign exchange hedging transactions come from institutional investors such as life insurance companies, pension funds, and hedge funds. According to Nomura Securities, the hedging ratio of Japanese life insurance companies was originally around 44%. In April and May, this figure rose to around 48%. Nomura Securities estimates that the hedging ratio of life insurance companies in Taiwan, China, is around 70%. When investors hedge against US dollar risks, they sell US dollars and buy local or other currencies, which increases demand for the US dollar and causes non-US currencies to appreciate against the US dollar. Is a structural shift underway? Clearly, the rise of this de-dollarization trend has once again raised a "perennial" question: Is this merely a phase of temporary reduction in US dollar holdings, or a more drastic structural shift? In fact, although similar shifts are more pronounced in Asia, the world is actually reducing its reliance on the US dollar—the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined from over 70% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2024. Recently, due to uncertainties surrounding a series of decisions by the Trump administration, the US dollar has experienced a significant decline this year, particularly in April. Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has fallen by more than 8%, marking the worst performance in the first five months of the year in history, according to Dow Jones Market Data. However, some industry observers also state that despite many countries reducing their reliance on the US dollar, it remains challenging to replace the US dollar as the primary reserve currency. Cedric Chehab, chief economist at BMI, said that, for now, this may still be merely cyclical. He pointed out that it could only transform into a structural trend if the US implements sanctions more aggressively, prompting central banks to be wary of holding excessive US dollars, or if governments mandate pension funds to increase their holdings of domestic assets. Of course, the first threat mentioned by Chehab may have already occurred to some extent. What undoubtedly concerns many foreign entities the most is undoubtedly "Clause 899" in Trump's latest tax reform bill. If approved by Congress, this clause would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries it deems to be implementing punitive tax policies. George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said that this would mark the formal incorporation of the weaponization of US capital markets into law. Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, pointed out that "Trump's erratic trade policy decisions and the significant depreciation of the US dollar may be encouraging a faster shift towards other currencies." Peter Kinsella, global head of FX strategy at Union Bancaire Privée, reminded people to distinguish between the weakening of the US dollar and de-dollarization. "The US dollar has gone through multiple cycles of depreciation, yet its hegemony as a reserve currency remains unchanged," he added. Even with reduced exposure, the US dollar's core position in trade invoicing remains solid—over half of global trade was still settled in US dollars in April this year. However, Kinsella also mentioned that, "the long-term declining trend in the US dollar's status as a reserve asset will continue, and I firmly believe that gold will be the biggest beneficiary." According to a report released by the European Central Bank on Wednesday, gold accounted for 20% of global official reserves in 2024, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally, second only to the US dollar at 46%.