From June 3 to June 5, the Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , with a strategic partnership established with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and the sub-forum, bringing together 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, with 120+ speakers sharing their insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG construction, etc. Additionally, SMM has also meticulously arranged two rounds of panel discussions: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Conference Background In recent years, global nickel and cobalt raw material supply has frequently encountered various disruptions: Indonesia significantly lowered its nickel ore mining quota to 260–270 million mt, tightening nickel resource release at the source; the DRC continuously reduced cobalt ore export quotas, leading to a marked contraction in tradable cobalt raw materials worldwide. Multiple supply variables continued to roil nickel and cobalt commodity futures. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not only the core hub of the global nickel industry chain but also a key production area for global new cobalt supply at this stage. Its industrial control policies, commissioning pace of capacity, and industry chain layout changes directly shape the evolution of the global nickel-cobalt supply-demand pattern. Currently, the global nickel and cobalt industry is at a critical development stage featuring supply-demand restructuring, policy innovation, and value reassessment. To accurately forecast the nickel and cobalt market trends in 2026, deeply analyze the latest industrial control details in Indonesia, and help the upstream and downstream of the industry chain break down collaboration barriers, the Nickel and Cobalt Forum was launched. The forum brought together global mines, smelters, trading firms, downstream end-users, and investment and financing institutions to conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as market supply and demand trends, policies and regulations, production technology iteration, and cross-border industrial cooperation, jointly exploring new growth drivers for high-quality industry development. Click to view the conference photo gallery June 4: Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Mining Regulatory Outlook: RKAB Quota Planning and Indonesia's Next-Phase Downstream Mineral Expansion Path Guest Speaker: Totoh Abdul Fatah, Secretary General of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Totoh Abdul Fatah noted that RKAB is the key policy instrument for Indonesia to regulate mineral output, coordinate the orderly rollout of industries, and align with the nation's downstream industrialization priorities. Indonesia is endowed with exceptional mineral and coal resources, with significant reserves and capacity in several key strategic commodities including nickel, cobalt, copper, tin, bauxite, gold and silver, and iron ore. Leveraging these unique resource advantages, Indonesia holds a critical strategic position in the global mineral supply chain, and its value is especially prominent in the energy transition wave, providing strong support for the development of power batteries, renewable energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing. The next phase of downstream mineral development is not about curbing growth, but about improving development quality, clarifying development direction, strengthening regulatory management, and reinforcing the sustainability of growth. Future smelter layout must match ore supply capability, be aligned with resource conservation, and coordinate multiple factors including energy infrastructure readiness, environmental protection access standards, and domestic industry value addition. In light of these considerations, the Indonesian government is promoting an industrial logic shift from pure capacity expansion to strategic optimization of resource allocation, ensuring that mineral resources are precisely directed to industry segments that can maximize national economic benefits. Indonesia's downstream mineral industrialization has made concrete progress. Currently, 14 smelters are in operation, primarily producing products such as nickel oxide, pig iron, and copper cathode. Covering both existing operating plants and new projects under construction, the entire industry chain has attracted a total realized investment of $7.849 billion. Breakdown: nickel sector investment of $2.535 billion, aluminum sector $2.181 billion, iron ore projects $47 million, and copper sector $3.084 billion. This is continuously improving the supporting system of the domestic mineral industry chain. This progress demonstrates that Indonesia's downstream mineral policy has achieved tangible results. However, challenges remain for the industry: not only must new smelting projects be completed and commissioned on schedule, but they also require stable supporting supply to achieve efficient operations, green and low-carbon production, and deep integration into the domestic industry chain value system. Indonesia's development direction is very clear: the downstream transformation of minerals will continue to advance, and during the implementation process, policy enforcement constraints and top-level strategic guidance will be further strengthened. The RKAB management system and ore source allocation control rules are key to building a robust and more resilient industrial ecosystem. Future smelting project planning needs to coordinate four key dimensions: sustainable resource development, supply-demand market equilibrium, ESG compliance implementation, and enhancement of national value added. Indonesia has always been open to quality investment, especially quality investment, relying on foreign capital to achieve technology transfer and localization, expand local employment, and support long-term economic growth. In other words, Indonesia's industrial development not only pursues growth, but is committed to achieving high-quality growth that is compliant, sustainable, and globally competitive. Keynote Speech: Nickel at a Crossroads：A Five-Year Outlook on Global Nickel — Navigating Policy, Supply, and Demand Shifts Speaker: Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market Feng projects that the global primary nickel market will show a supply deficit in 2026, continue the oversupply trend in 2027, and shift to a tight balance in 2029. Regarding refined nickel prices, on the cost side, global sulfur supply and demand will face a persistent deficit in the next 2–3 years. In the case of short-term strait blockades, sulfur prices remain high, strengthening the cost support for the sulfur-MHP-refined nickel chain. From a macro perspective, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered wild swings in energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. In the short term, global commodity prices will face considerable fluctuations. In the long term, global geopolitical uncertainty may become the new normal in the future, increasing the volatility of refined nickel prices. Nickel Ore Upstream Repricing: Indonesia's Benchmark Price Raise, Quota Tightening, and Increased Dependence on the Philippines Indonesia Nickel Ore RKAB Quotas: Tight Balance Emerges as the 2026 Main Theme According to SMM analysis, following the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) official denial of market rumors that RKAB production quotas would be raised across the board by 25%–30%, the government will handle supplementary quotas under strict case-by-case reviews starting from H2 2026, evaluating each miner's compliance, capacity, and resource reserves. At its core, this constitutes a routine and orderly optimisation of the existing 260–270 million wmt quota cap, paving the way for a more stable and sustainable market environment. Supply RKAB Approval Progress: As of April, Indonesia's cumulative approved RKAB quotas stand at 240 million wmt. SMM expects that, under expectations of continued nickel ore supply tightening, supplementary quotas around mid-year 2026 will be approximately 15%. Philippine Import Driver: SMM expects that this year, Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines will rise from approximately 15 million in 2025 to 22 million. Tightness in the domestic trade nickel ore supply will accelerate supplementation through imports from the Philippines. Demand Affected by the tight sulphur supply, MHP output has fallen short of earlier expectations. As a result, Indonesia's nickel ore demand for full-year 2026 is expected to be reduced to 303 million wmt. In 2026, actual nickel ore production will remain constrained by factors such as the rainy season and the pace of RKAB quota approvals, leaving overall output below theoretical supply levels. Panel Discussion: Upstream Opportunities & Challenges for Nickel Mine Owners Moderator: Enzo Brooklyn, Senior Nickel Analyst, SMM Panelists: Luca Maiotti, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Aldo Namora, President Director, PT Ceria Metalindo Prima Jerome Baudelet, CEO, Eramet Indonesia Patrick Lim, Country Head, HyperStrong Indonesia Keynote Speech: Achieving Energy Efficiency and Operational Success: The MMD Approach at Mah Moe Speaker: Fuad Budidarma Pratama, General Manager, MMD Mining Machinery Indonesia Keynote Speech: Global Nickel Market Outlook Speaker: Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) Ricardo Ferreira noted that global primary nickel production is estimated to have declined by approximately 4% YoY, measured across the full chain from raw ore mining to finished primary nickel products. Most of this decrease originated from Indonesia, while expectations also pointed to a pullback in Chinese nickel output. According to the monthly bulletin released earlier, global primary nickel already edged down by about 1% in Q1, with Indonesia down roughly 3% and China down about 1%. Keynote Speech: New Refining Technologies for Laterite Nickel and Spent Batteries Speaker: Dr. Chunwei Liu, Managing Director of Resource Extraction, Botree Recycling Technologies Distribution of Laterite Nickel Ore Resources Laterite nickel ore accounts for 55% of global nickel resources and is the main source of nickel for industrial production worldwide. With the continuous development and promotion of high-nickel batteries, market demand for nickel—and consequently for laterite nickel ore processing—has grown significantly. Geographic concentration: Mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30° north and south of the equator. Three core regions: Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines (major laterite nickel ore producing areas). Americas: Cuba, Brazil. Oceania: Australia, New Caledonia. Panel Discussion: Nickel Price Volatility, Product Spreads, and Policy Shifts: What Will Define the Market in the next 5 years? Moderator: Slupek Kamila, Secretary-General, INSG Panelists: Jim Lennon, Analyst, Macquarie Septian Hario Seto, Member, National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director, Norilsk Nickel Edric Koh, Head of Corporate Sales, Asia, London Metal Exchange Mark Selby, CEO & Director, Canada Nickel Company Keynote Speech: Korean Battery Supply Chain Strategy and Indonesia's Role Speaker: James (IKHWAN) Choi, Country Manager, Korea Office, SMM Korea Office Keynote Speech: Retreat or Evolve? The Counter-Attack of High-Nickel Batteries under the LFP Siege: Solid State, 4680, and the "Range Anxiety" Premium Speaker: Jared Zhu, Head of Consulting, Renewable Energy & Non-ferrous Metals, Shanghai Metals Market Jared noted that LFP batteries have steadily increased their market share in power battery and energy storage markets in recent years. With the rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), ternary batteries, leveraging their performance advantages, are more competitive than LFP batteries. Solid-state batteries are regarded by the industry as a must-win field for future competition, but it is worth noting that this new technology, capable of rewriting industry rules, still has a long development cycle before full commercialization. Positioning in the LFP Era LFP Accelerates Replacement of Ni-Co-Mn in Energy Storage and EVs, Leading in Scale and Growth SMM forecasts the global share of EV power battery types from 2026 to 2027, expecting LFP batteries to account for around 68% in 2026, with that ratio rising to about 70% in 2027. For ESS battery types, from 2022 to 2025, the share of LFP batteries in global ESS batteries continued to rise, and in 2026, it is expected to increase to around 99%. Keynote Speech: QMAG - Market Leader of Calcined Magnesia for Nickel/Cobalt MHP Production Speaker: Christoph Beyer, Managing Director of Queensland Magnesia (QMAG) Dr. Keynote Speech: Cobalt in Focus: Powering the Next Chapter of Critical Minerals Speaker: Dinah McLeod, Director General, Cobalt Institute June 5: Nickel and Cobalt Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Balancing Risk and Reward: Investing in Indonesia's Nickel and Cobalt Value Chain Speaker: Izzie Huo, Senior Research Fellow, Shanghai Metals Market Panel Discussion: Too Much Nickel? Balancing Oversupply Risks with Long-Term Investment in Indonesia Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Ali Safdar, Managing Director & Partner, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman, Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) Ditya Maharhani Harninda, Senior Vice President Corporate Banking 2, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (Persero) Keynote Speech: Valve Solutions for Severe Service in HPAL Speaker: Changsong Deng, President of International Business Division, ANTIWEAR Keynote Speech: Breaking the Import Dependency: Economics and Feasibility of Pyrite-based Acid Production for Indonesia's HPAL Supply Chain Speaker: Bede Beresford Evans, President Director, PT Sumbawa Timur Mining Keynote Speech: Key Technology and Economic Analysis of AI Power Microgrid Solutions in Mining Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, Ai Power (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Value of Analytical Solutions in Mining Processes Speaker: Toh Tiong Yen, Sales Manager, Malvern Panalytical Keynote Speech: New Caledonia's Nickel Landscape Speaker: Gabriel Bensimon, Special Advisor to the President of the Government on Nickel and Mining-Related Matters, The Gouvernment of New Caledonia Keynote Speech: Global Flow of Nickel from Mining to End-Use Speaker: Dr. Steukers Veronique, President, Nickel Institute Primary nickel production is now dominated by Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia produced around 50% of the world's primary nickel, compared to just 6% a decade earlier. Primary nickel production in the rest of the world declined. In 2025, primary nickel production in the rest of the world, excluding Indonesia and China, accounted for just over 20% of the global total, down from 65% a decade earlier. Indonesia and China are the core driving forces shaping the global nickel supply chain landscape. From the perspective of nickel product circulation structure, NPI, backed by Indonesia's capacity advantage, firmly dominates the circulation mainstream; in terms of global nickel raw material supply by grade, Class 2 nickel accounts for approximately 58%, Class 1 nickel for just under 30%, and nickel chemical products for the remaining around 13%. Panel Discussion: Meet the future of ESG: Standard, Challenges and Opportunities in Mining and Processing Moderator: Katz Benjamin, Policy Analyst, OECD Panelists: Dr. Chris Schlekat, Executive Director of NIPERA, Nickel Institute Ning Wang, Manager, Sustainable Development Department, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Vinícius Mendes Ferreira, Executive Advisor for Nickel Downstreaming, PT Vale Indonesia Fan Li, Sustainability and ESG Services Manager, dss+ Tom Fairlie, Senior Sustainability Manager, Cobalt Institute

From June 3 to June 5, the Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , with a strategic partnership established with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and the sub-forum, bringing together 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, with 120+ speakers sharing their insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG construction, etc. Conference Background In the process of global industrial upgrading, the strategic value of critical metals has become increasingly prominent, and Southeast Asia has gradually emerged as a highly dynamic segment of the global mining landscape. As a major regional mineral producer, Indonesia has successively introduced multiple industrial policies for critical metals such as nickel, tin, aluminum, and copper, adjusting and optimizing areas including mining quotas, pricing mechanisms, tax policies, export management, and domestic market obligation since 2026. These efforts are guided by the goals of improving the regulatory system, enhancing industrial added value, and optimizing resource revenues, and have had a significant impact on the global metal supply chain and market dynamics. As Indonesia’s premier flagship event for the mineral industry, this conference focuses on supply chain security of critical minerals including nickel, cobalt and tin, and adopts a dual-driven model of mining and energy. It commits to promoting Indonesia’s industrial upgrading from raw material export to high-value industrial chain development, while providing solid resource support and practical cooperation paradigms for regional and global energy transition. 》Click to view the photo gallery of the conference June 3: Main Forum Opening Ceremony Adam Fan, Chairman, Shanghai Metals Market Nanan Soekarna, Chairman, APNI Arif Havas Oegroseno, Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ciyong Zou, Deputy to the Director General and Managing Director of the Directorate of Technical Cooperation and Sustainable Industrial Development, UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) Sherly Tjoanda, Governor of North Maluku, North Maluku Government Todotua Pasaribu, Vice Minister, Ministry of Investement and Downstream Industry of Indonesia Drum Performance & Dance Show Opening Address Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Adam stated that this year marks the 4th year of the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference. This flagship industry event is dedicated to building a global platform connecting Indonesia with the world. Empowering mineral resources through technology, the conference links producers and consumers to facilitate industrial chain and business cooperation. Boasting a record-high attendance, this year’s event gathers 3,500+ participants and 120+ speakers. The growing participation of global countries, enterprises and industry professionals demonstrates rising international trust and confidence in Indonesia’s critical mineral ecosystem. As cross-border collaboration is essential for building a robust global critical minerals supply chain, the conference strives to enhance supply chain transparency, interconnectivity and in-depth global industrial cooperation by pooling industry insights and resources. Speaker: Nanan Soekarna, Chairman of APNI Nanan Soekarna stated in his remarks that the 4th Indonesia Critical Minerals was the largest to date in terms of attendance, demonstrating the global industry’s full confidence in Indonesia’s minerals industry, cross-border cooperation models, and Indonesia’s roadmap for sustainable mining development, and he extended his sincere gratitude to all participating partners. He noted that the core of development in the critical minerals sector has shifted from a simple contest of resources and capacity to the transformation of the sustainable value of natural resources, balancing diverse economic, social, and environmental benefits. By deepening downstream industry chain expansion, Indonesia aims both to enhance industrial value-added and to build an international industrial brand and strengthen credibility in the global market. In the future, the core of global mining competition will not lie in resource reserves, but in transparent, responsible, and sustainable resource governance capabilities. Relying on global partners, Indonesia will uphold the philosophy of sustainable mining development and, through high-quality cooperation and shared value principles, work together to build the future of the critical minerals industry that balances ecology, benefits, and long-term development. Speaker: Arif Havas Oegroseno, Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Arif Havas Oegroseno mentioned that critical minerals are increasingly becoming a focal point of global geopolitical competition, with elements such as energy, minerals, and trade and economic rules being instrumentalized from time to time. Leveraging its domestic resource endowments, Indonesia is vigorously advancing downstream deep processing of minerals; this strategy is not limited to industrial upgrading, but is also a comprehensive development initiative that boosts employment, consolidates science and technology innovation capabilities, enhances industry chain resilience, and delivers inclusive gains from green development. In response to procurement demands from multiple parties, Indonesia adheres to a diversified cooperation approach by expanding a diverse range of procurement partners and promoting deeper participation by resource countries in technology R&D and industry chain value-added, thereby avoiding the risks of dependence on a single partnership. He also noted that for the future governance of critical minerals, ESG should truly become a competitive advantage for enterprises rather than a trade barrier, with its original purpose being to optimize environmental management, improve social responsibility, and empower enterprises to enhance quality and efficiency. In the face of a new round of industrial transformation, critical minerals serve as the core raw materials for energy transition, the digital economy, and the development of high-tech industries. Based on its resource endowment, Indonesia is determined to transform from a mineral resource producer into a reliable partner in the global industry chain and a co-builder of industry rules. It invites global investors, industry chain producers, and resource-producing countries to join hands, uphold the spirit of partnership, reject unreasonable additional conditions, and jointly build a new global pattern for critical minerals that is inclusive and universally beneficial. Keynote Speech: Investing in Critical Minerals Downstreaming: Unlocking the Full Value of Indonesia's Resources Guest Speaker: Todotua Pasaribu, Vice Minister, Ministery of Investment and Downstream Industry of Indonesia Pasaribu Todotua stated that against the backdrop of climbing global demand for critical minerals and concentrated resource origins, the strategic attributes of this category continue to stand out. Indonesia, leveraging its resource endowment, vigorously promotes the downstream transformation of the entire industry chain, which is a core national policy to boost the economy and optimize supply chain structures. Under the president's policy deployment, Indonesia has designated mineral deep processing as a pillar of industrial upgrading. The authorities have delineated 28 categories of strategic minerals across eight major sectors and estimated potential investment in related tracks at approximately $618 billion, which is expected to create 3 million new jobs annually upon implementation. The country has set investment attraction targets from 2024 to 2029, accompanied by annual implementation plans. The 2026 target is clear, and investment implementation progress in the first quarter has been steady. In recent years, downstream industry investment has accounted for nearly 30% of national fixed asset investment, becoming a key driver to boost the economy and helping the country sprint toward the 8% economic growth target by 2029. He introduced that Indonesia has already established downstream layouts in multiple critical mineral tracks, including nickel, tin, aluminum, copper, PV raw materials, and semiconductor raw materials. The nickel industry has extended from stainless steel production to the entire power battery industry chain, while the tin, aluminum, and copper sectors continue to expand into deep processing, electronic materials, and other high-value-added categories, synchronously deploying supporting industry chains for PV and semiconductors. To solidify the conditions for industrial implementation, Indonesia has optimized the business environment in three aspects: accelerating approval processes, providing infrastructure support, and offering policy incentives. It has shortened project approval cycles, improved supporting facilities for hydropower, ports, and transportation, and implemented supportive measures such as tax reductions and tariff preferences, continuously attracting global capital and technological cooperation. This drives the country's transformation from a raw material exporter to a high-value-added product manufacturer, relying on multi-party collaboration to convert local mineral resources into sustainable industrial benefits. Guest Speaker: Ciyong Zou, Deputy to the Director General and Managing Director of the Directorate of Technical Cooperation and Sustainable Industrial Development, UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) Zou Ciyong said global demand for critical minerals continues to rise along with the rapid development of clean energy and digital industries, and the role of resource countries in ensuring stable mineral supply is becoming increasingly critical. Indonesia's transformation path from raw material extraction to deep processing can provide reference for resource countries in the Global South. Currently, mining development still faces multiple challenges such as environmental protection, carbon emissions, and livelihood supporting facilities. Sustainable development has become an imperative for the industry, which needs to balance economic benefits, green development and social inclusion. Leveraging its multilateral platform advantages, UNIDO empowers its member states in multiple dimensions, including industrial policy, technology transfer, investment and financing, and capacity building, promotes the establishment of a Global Green Mining Cooperation Alliance, and has implemented a demonstration project of the Indonesia Nickel Industry Eco-Industrial Park, using the project as a model to explore a sustainable development path for global mining. He pointed out that the long-term development of the critical minerals industry cannot be separated from in-depth international cooperation, and it is necessary to establish transparent public-private partnerships, build resilient supply chains, and uniformly implement common industry standards. Indonesia intends to join forces with partners from all sectors to tap the development potential of the industry, while insisting on placing environmental protection and sustainability at the forefront of industrial development. In the future, UNIDO will continue to engage with governments, industries and capital from multiple parties, working together to achieve coordinated economic, social and environmental benefits from mineral resources. Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Beyond Volume: How North Maluku Can Lead Indonesia’s Next Phase of Sustainable Downstream Growth? Guest Speaker: Sherly Tjoanda, Governor of North Maluku Province Sherly Tjoanda elaborated on how North Maluku can lead Indonesia's next phase of sustainable downstream development from the perspectives of geographical location, transportation advantages, skilled talent reserves, and the fact that North Maluku's nickel ore is high-grade ore. Keynote Speech: Two Decades of Critical Minerals: 2016-2036 - How Supply Structures Shape Market Dynamics Guest Speaker: Shirley Wang, VP, Shanghai Metals Market The Rule —Why resource-rich nations must process, not just mine A 1931 Question: Mine Today, or Wait? Hotelling gave mining a theoretical anchor. It was elegant — and incomplete. A rational resource-based country should ensure the rate of price increase is exactly equal to the return on investment (Interest rate) Four Reasons the Real World Departs from the Formula Substitution, policy shifts, demand surprises, and costs — each bends the expected path The Quiet Force Behind All of This Ore grades decline everywhere. Building downstream is not ambition. It is adaptation. Shirley analyzed this by comparing ore grades for nickel, tin, copper, alumina, and others for the years 2016, 2026, and 2036. ► Strategic Insight: Why Low-Grade Ore Is Changing the Rules • Continuously declining grades are forcing industrial upgrading and iteration. Deteriorating raw ore quality is driving mines and smelters to optimize production, increasing the utilization of low-grade ore, the application of new processes, and the recycling of secondary resources. • Pricing power is gradually shifting from trading markets to resource-rich governments. As high-grade mineral deposits are depleted, the impact of short-term supply and demand on prices weakens, and the pace at which resource-rich nations release supply becomes the core variable. Industry Mainline: Commonalities in Two Decades of Development Across Five Metals Nickel: Where One Country Anchors the Market Indonesia influences marginal incremental nickel supply, and the commissioning pace of its domestic industry dominates global nickel price movements. The analysis incorporated the global distribution of nickel mine capacity. Cost Structures Are Moving Apart RKEF costs face the steepest climb. Scale mattered yesterday. Cost discipline matters tomorrow. The Ore Base Is Quietly Shifting Looking at changes in the global nickel production cost structure, the primary low-cost raw material was high-grade primary nickel ore before 2015. From 2016 to 2026, the share of low-grade ore and laterite nickel ore mining has been climbing steadily. Currently, laterite nickel ore stands as the most cost-competitive raw material. As laterite nickel ore grades decline, future nickel production based on sulphide ore may increase. Keynote Speech: Indonesia's Green Nickel: From Us To The Next Generation Guest Speaker: Joseph Hong, President Commissioner, Neo Energy Keynote Speech: AI is NOT optional! Guest Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Adam noted that AI has become an essential requirement for the digital upgrade of the commodity industry. Leveraging a new AI technology system, SMM integrates macro and micro data, market intelligence, and industrial information through full-process intelligent processing, and with human-machine collaboration automatically generates in-depth industry reports — surpassing traditional manual approaches comprehensively in terms of timeliness, coverage, personalization, and depth of analysis. SMM has now deployed a mature industry AI solution: leveraging SMM’s massive database and customized AI capabilities, enterprises can enable intelligent inquiries, interactive reviews, and dynamic strategy simulations, accurately serving transaction analysis, production planning, and inventory strategies for non-ferrous metals such as cobalt, nickel, and copper. SMM AI Data Services offer a three-tier progressive intelligent solution for the metals industry: Instant Inquiry → Xiao Jin (Metrix): access real-time price trends and market insights, with data sourced from a premium subscription-grade database and insights calibrated by senior analysts; In-depth Research → Deep Report: a chapter-by-chapter analysis by product and region, featuring traceable charts and citations, and continuously updated as market conditions evolve; System Integration → MCP Data Services: covering over 200,000 real-time data indicators and more than 60 products across the entire industry chain, a single integration embeds the service into the enterprise AI framework. Keynote Speech: Indonesia's Post-Election Economy: Can the Country Sustain 5–6% Growth Amid Fiscal Pressures, Weak Export Prices and Heavy Industrial Power Subsidies? Speaker: Andre Simangunsong, Head of Mandiri Institute, Office of Chief Economist, Bank Mandiri Andre Simangunsong said Indonesia’s GDP grew by 5.6% in Q1 2026, with a full-year baseline forecast of 5.2%. The strong Q1 growth was primarily driven by a low base effect from delayed fiscal spending in 2025 and the front-loading of this year’s fiscal disbursements. The full year faces uncertainties from rising crude oil prices, geopolitical fluctuations, and a widening fiscal deficit. The 2026 fiscal budget is approximately IDR 2,000 trillion, focusing on eight key areas such as education and food security; 19 major industrial projects have already commenced, with nickel smelting and industry chain parks accelerating establishment, propelling the mineral sector’s transformation from raw resource exports to high-value-added deep processing. Indonesia has revised nickel ore royalty rules, introducing progressive royalty rates, promoting the upgrade of nickel products from nickel pig iron (NPI) to MHP and nickel sulphate, and laying out hydrometallurgical processing for low-grade ores; the outlook for the tin industry is positive. The banking sector’s loan-to-deposit ratio remains stable at 85%, and Bank Mandiri is advancing digital transformation and ESG-compliant lending to empower downstream industry projects. By combining industrial, fiscal, and financial strengths, Indonesia is expected to maintain a growth range of 5%–6% in the medium and long term. CXO Panel: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges Moderator: Laksmi Kusumawati, Director of Downstream Planning and International Economic Cooperation, Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas Panelists: Bernardus Irmanto, President Director, PT Vale Indonesia Alex Sun, Chief Sustainability Officer and Vice President, Integrated Energy Service and Carbon Management, Envision Group Marvin R. Reinhart, Portfolio Management Department Head, Indonesia Battery Corporation Ilhamsyah Mahendra, Production & Commercial Director, PT Timah Tbk Keynote Speech: Breaking the Diesel Dependency: Reliable, Affordable Energy for Island Mines Speaker: Mr. Fred Ge, C&I BESS Technical Solution Manager in Asia-Pacific, Sungrow Panel Discussion: The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Moderator： MARCO KAMIYA， UNIDO Representative, Regional Office in Jakarta for Indonesia, Timor Leste and the Philippines UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) Panelists: Ary Sudijanto, Deputy for Climate Change Control and Carbon Economic Value Governance, Ministry of Environment, Government of Indonesia Antti Koulumies, CEO, Terrafame Anna Stancher, Senior Project Manager, Responsible Minerals Initiative Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Lihui Sun, Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer, Huayou Cobalt Cocktail Party We extend our sincere gratitude to the global logistics leader Access World for its exclusive sponsorship of the cocktail party at this conference. Founded in 1933, Access World has grown from a family business into an international logistics organization operating in 25 countries, with a strategically located network of ports and warehousing facilities in prime locations, ensuring the efficient daily handling and flow of goods. As an end-to-end logistics service provider, Access World has long been committed to simplifying global supply chains and enhancing the efficiency of commodity circulation. It is worth noting that this marks the second consecutive year Access World has generously sponsored the cocktail dinner at the Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Minerals Conference. For this steadfast commitment and dedication to deeply cultivating the industry and continuously empowering industry exchanges, the organizing committee and all attendees express our deep respect and gratitude. Check-in & Networking

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Fragile US-Iran Situation Drives LME Zinc Center Higher] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,535/mt, briefly dipped to a low of $3,520.5/mt in early trading, then rose all the way during the night session to touch a high of $3,600/mt, before funds took profits and the center moved lower, eventually closing up at $3,546/mt, up $11.5/mt, or 0.33%. Trading volume increased to 15,243 lots, and open interest decreased by 562 lots to 234,000 lots.

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is pleased to announce that an SMM-led delegation, headed by SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager Jenny Wu and made up of delegates from the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2026 , paid a formal visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) on June 4. The event was organized by SMM and co-organized by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Economic Council, Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), and MMR, with the Jakarta Futures Exchange as the strategic partner. This visit underscores SMM’s commitment to fostering long-term, win-win partnerships between Indonesia’s top mineral exporters and worldwide metal industry stakeholders. During the exchange meeting, AETI representatives gave a detailed introduction to the association’s development background and the overall production and operational status of some local tin enterprises in Indonesia. In the Q&A session, the two sides had in-depth discussions on key industry topics such as the progress of Indonesian tin ore mining quota approvals and certain current industry-related policies, sharing market information and exchanging industry perspectives. This face-to-face exchange further strengthened ties between industry partners in and outside China, laying a solid foundation for future cross-regional cooperation and information sharing along the tin industry chain. Introduction to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) Profile The AETI was established on May 9, 2014, and became a member of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN) on March 14, 2015. Objectives: Creating productive collaboration between the government, entrepreneurs, and stakeholders Increasing the added value of Indonesian Tin Encouraging the implementation of Good Mining Practices in the tin mining industry Board of AETI Management AETI Members Currently, AETI has 23 member companies of tin exporters spread across the islands of Bangka, Belitung, and Riau AETI Mandate/Functions Advocating for policies that support the national tin industry Maintaining the stability and sustainability of the tin export market Ensuring member compliance with environmental and trading regulations Serving as a forum of communication between tin exporters and the government AETI Internal Activities Training & Development AETI Member Meeting TinSeller–BuyerMeeting Others: Reclamation, Charity, Conference, etc. As a demonstration of AETI's commitment to the environment, we have launched a reclamation program targeting 500 hectares of abandoned post mining land in Bangka Belitung. AETI also runs regular social programs for the community in Bangka Belitung Indonesia Tin Update AETI forecasts that the total national tin production quota in the 2026 Mining Work Plan (RKAB) will be approximately 50,000 tons. This figure has been adjusted from around 53,000 tons in 2025 to stabilize global tin prices. Currently, ten enterprises have obtained RKAB approvals. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) is implementing a more selective evaluation and adjustment of the RKAB. The Indonesian government has introduced these policies to secure future energy reserves while simultaneously controling the structure of tin trade to prevent illegal mining practices. Dynamics of Indonesian Tin Industry Regulatory Policies The dynamics of tin regulation in Indonesia over past years have undergone a massive paradigm shift. Driven by ensuring the sustainability and improving the governance of natural resources, optimizing state revenue and promoting downstream industrialization. 1. The validity period of the RKAB has been restored to one year (previously a three-year system). The policy aims to strengthen the government’s supervision of annual production, close loopholes in illegal mining, and adjust quotas in real time based on global market demand. Legal basis: an Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) ministerial regulation, now officially implemented. Currently, smelters must reapply annually, and the approval process is becoming stricter. While this measure reduces the predictability of multi-year supply, it has effectively curbed speculative over-application of production quotas. 2. Downstream development policy (Hilirisasi) This drives Indonesia’s transformation from an exporter of raw materials and refined ingots into a producer of high-value-added finished products, retaining profits domestically. The policy is a key pillar of the current government’s national development philosophy and falls under the President’s eight core governance goals (Asta Cita). Indonesia has streamlined regulatory rules for the export of industrial tin products, covering raw material procurement and product technical standards, thereby promoting the domestic production and export of high-end tin products such as tin solder, tin chemicals, tin powder, and tin plate. 3. Designating tin as a critical strategic mineral Tin has been elevated to a strategic status concerning national resilience and security, ensuring long-term domestic supply for key industries such as EVs and electronics. Legal basis: the Presidential Regulation on the Governance of Critical and Strategic Minerals, currently under development. With tin classified as a critical strategic mineral, mining supervision becomes stricter, and the central government gains the highest authority over production control. This has accelerated the downstreamization of Indonesia’s tin industry and, together with tightening global supply, has at times driven a significant rise in tin prices. 4. Establishing a benchmark price for tin ore This creates a fair, standardized price floor for domestic tin ore transactions in Indonesia, ensuring optimal state revenue (royalties) while securing reasonable income for local miners/partners. Legal basis: an ESDM ministerial regulation, under development. The policy can eliminate low-ball pricing and malicious push for lower prices among local miners, partners, and smelters. Domestic ore transaction prices are set with reference to public international benchmarks such as the London Metal Exchange, the Indonesia Commodity Exchange, and the Jakarta Futures Exchange, and are adjusted based on local actual costs. 5. Single export gateway policy for strategic commodities Strategic commodities must go through a designated unified gateway/trading platform for centralized export business, enabling whole-process compliance supervision, traceable flows, and ensuring full payment of taxes and royalties. Legal basis: joint regulations formulated by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Trade, currently under development. Export business is handled exclusively through the state-designated institution — Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia — which may weaken the role of domestic private enterprises in the export process.

According to Arif Havas Oegroseno, Vice Minister of Indonesia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, critical minerals have increasingly become a focal point of global geopolitical competition, with energy, minerals, trade rules, and other elements being weaponized from time to time. Indonesia has been vigorously advancing downstream processing of minerals. This strategy goes beyond industrial upgrading — it is a comprehensive development initiative that boosts employment, strengthens scientific and technological innovation capabilities, enhances industry chain resilience, and ensures the benefits of green development are broadly shared.

SMM Nickel News, May 26: Macro and market news: (1) A draft agreement between the US and Iran was reportedly reached, allowing free and open passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the clearing of mines; navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is to be restored within 30 days. (2) Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: No transit fees will be imposed on the Strait of Hormuz. Charging for services provided is normal, but it should not be regarded as a toll. Spot market: On May 26, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 2,600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,100 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract plunged sharply in the morning session, closing at 142,280 yuan/mt, down 1.08%. The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, and the sulfur supply deficit is expected to ease. The fading of geopolitical risk premiums weakened the short-term cost-side support for nickel prices, leading to a sharp decline. Currently, global refined nickel visible inventory remains at elevated levels, and sluggish downstream consumption has slowed the destocking process. Nickel prices lack upward momentum, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 137,000-145,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,004/mt, moved sideways during the Asian session with a low of $2,001.5/mt; LME lead fluctuated upward after entering the European session, reaching a high of $2,017/mt, and finally closed at $2,012/mt, up 0.4%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,620 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward, hitting a low of 16,530 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,535 yuan/mt, down 0.33%. On the macro front: India restricted duty-free gold imports; Ukraine reported the largest Russian airstrike since the conflict began; Israel and Lebanon held a new round of negotiations in the US. OPEC+ reportedly plans to continue increasing production, targeting the restoration of all production cuts by the end of September. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: the oil price curve is expected to decline within six months; Iran has exhausted its oil storage capacity and will be forced to halt production. China's Ministry of Commerce: China is willing to work with the US to continuously expand the cooperation list. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China is willing to work with the US to translate the new positioning of China-US relations into actions moving in the same direction. The PBOC: a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation with a 6-month tenor will be conducted on May 15. : Driven by the LME lead rally, SHFE lead rebounded relatively, and suppliers actively made shipments while lowering quoted premiums. Additionally, primary lead smelter supplies were ample, with mainstream production areas quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Secondary lead side, losses remained prominent, and smelters held prices firm while shipping, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market remained in an off-season state, with limited just-in-time procurement from downstream enterprises. After lead prices rebounded, inquiry enthusiasm weakened, with buyers only maintaining just-in-time procurement, and spot market transactions turned sluggish. Inventory: On May 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt to 265,250 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 6,100 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Today is the delivery day. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory continued to accumulate. Notably, the domestic market has recently underperformed the overseas market for lead prices. The lead ingot import window has entered a closed state this week. Meanwhile, the supply gap for high-grade lead ingots in Southeast Asia remained significant, with spot cargoes maintaining high premiums. In H2, the potential opening of the lead ingot export window and its impact on domestic lead price trends may be worth watching. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[Inventory Buildup and Macro Tailwinds Offset Each Other, Aluminum Prices Trade in a Range] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, the continuation of higher-than-expected inventory buildup in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. At the same time, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market will further limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential emergence of a turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

SMM May 7 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. SHFE tin continued its strong momentum from the previous day's session, ultimately closing up 5.01%. SHFE nickel fell 2.68%. LME tin led the gains with a remarkable 9.01% increase, LME copper rose 2.22%, and LME zinc gained 1.52%. LME aluminum fell 1.02%, LME nickel dropped 2.22%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.13%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 1.03%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 1.15%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.26%, and rebar gained 0.68%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.92%, and coke dropped 0.64%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 2.95%, and COMEX silver gained 5.77%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.98%, and SHFE silver gained 2.8%. As of 6:45 AM on May 7, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China] On May 6, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about US President Trump's recent remarks concerning China. In response, Lin Jian stated that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) People's Bank of China: The weighted average interest rate on newly issued commercial personal housing loans nationwide in Q1 2026 was 3.06% . (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.49 to 98.02. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly resembles an inflationary shock to the economy. While the impact on employment and economic growth is not yet apparent, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases are intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflationary' shock" — the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation, forcing the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk — Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is simply an inflationary shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." (Jin10 Data APP) Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against instinctively cutting interest rates in response to faster productivity growth, as such a phenomenon can sometimes push up inflation. In prepared remarks released ahead of a panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Wednesday local time, Goolsbee said the US Fed's response to faster productivity growth "depends in large part on whether the productivity growth happens unexpectedly or is expected to happen in the future." He said in the first scenario, inflation could be suppressed, allowing for interest rate cuts. In the latter scenario, additional investment and spending driven by productivity growth could push up inflation, requiring higher interest rates. Additionally, he emphasized the need to be wary of consumption and investment driven by future growth expectations. "The more intense the hype, the greater the need for rate hikes to prevent overheating," he said. (Jin10 Data APP) St. Louis Fed President Musalem said there is significant uncertainty surrounding the US economic and monetary policy outlook, but he believes that relative to employment risks, inflation risks are currently rising. Musalem said on Wednesday: "Inflation is clearly above our 2% target. We face risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. Based on my assessment, risks are tilting more toward inflation rather than employment." Musalem said the US Fed's benchmark policy rate is currently at a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, or possibly slightly accommodative. He said: "There are very plausible scenarios that require us to hold the current policy rate unchanged for a period of time." However, he also noted that he sees scenarios that could require officials to cut interest rates further, or to raise rates. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 93.5%, with a 6.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 86.5%, with a 13.0% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will be released. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI down 5.93% and Brent down 7.2%. FXPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in a report that as the US is unwilling to further escalate tensions in the conflict with Iran, the oil market has now priced in a peace deal as the base case scenario. "Once shipping resumes quickly, tankers trapped in the Strait of Hormuz will release supply in a concentrated burst in the short term, pushing down Brent and WTI crude prices." However, he added that since global inventories have already been depleted and repairs to damaged infrastructure in Gulf states still require time, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of this year. "The decline in Brent and WTI prices will likely be very rapid but will not last long." (Jin10 Data APP) According to market observer The Kobeissi Letter, approximately 70 minutes before Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching consensus on a "14-point" agreement to end the war, crude oil short positions worth approximately $920 million were established. At 3:40 AM ET today (3:40 PM Beijing time), with no major news, the market established nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts. In notional value, this trade was approximately $920 million — an unusually large transaction for the 3:40 AM time slot. 70 minutes later at 4:50 AM ET (4:40 PM Beijing time), Axios reported that the US was "close to" reaching a "memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran war. By 7:00 AM ET (7:00 PM Beijing time), oil prices had fallen more than 12%, and the aforementioned crude oil short positions had unrealized gains of approximately $125 million. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a foreign media survey, as the Iran conflict continued to hinder Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further declines in Kuwait and Iran production. The survey showed Kuwait had the largest production decline last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports had fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) (Jin10 Data APP) US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was at its lowest since the week of December 6, 2024, and domestic crude oil production was at its lowest since the week of January 30, 2026. (Jin10 Data APP)