【SMM Tungsten Analysis】 SMM August 6: On August 5, major Chinese tungsten enterprises released their long-term contract prices for the first half of August, among which the price for 55% wolframite concentrates was set at 412,000 yuan/mt, up 1,000 yuan/standard tonne from the second half of July, and the APT long-term contract price was simultaneously raised by 1,000 yuan/mt to 606,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Rare Earth Flash] According to foreign media reports, US President Trump is expected to attend a mining roundtable hosted by the US Department of State on Friday, discussing the development of critical minerals supply chains with executives from multiple mining enterprises, and further promoting the expansion of critical minerals supply by the US and its allies to reduce dependence on China. Sources say the Trump administration has made critical minerals a strategic priority. In addition to supporting mine development and processing capacity building, it will also strengthen the cultivation of mining talent. The US Department of Energy (DOE) is expected to host a mining workforce development event during the same period, inviting 14 mining colleges across the US to participate, enhancing the reserve of mining professionals, and providing technical and human support for future critical minerals projects.

Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia stated that the royalty contributions paid by enterprises will become one of the key considerations in the evaluation for the approval of the Mining Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). Bahlil stated on August 3: "If some companies pay higher royalties while others pay lower ones, who should be given priority? Naturally, I must prioritize those that pay higher royalties. " This policy means that mining enterprises' contribution to state revenue may become an additional evaluation factor in future RKAB quota allocation. In addition to production capacity, market conditions and domestic downstream industry demand, royalty contributions may also affect approval priorities. At present, the Indonesian government is still reviewing the RKAB applications submitted by mining enterprises, and will determine the scale of additional production quotas based on market supply and demand. The final quota allocation has not yet been announced, and relevant data is still under calculation. SMM believes that the inclusion of royalty contributions in the RKAB evaluation criteria may lead to more selective quota approvals in the future, giving priority to mining enterprises with higher contributions to state revenue. We will continue to monitor the specific implementation of this criterion and its potential impact on the allocation of Indonesia's future nickel ore supply.

Background: Pangkalpinang Case Triggers Tighter Regulation of Rare Earth Elements in Indonesia’s Mineral Exports Recently, the detection issues surrounding Indonesia’s rare earth elements, or Logam Tanah Jarang (LTJ) , primarily stemmed from stricter government oversight of related mineral product exports following the Pangkalpinang case. The initial case involved an anomalous export of approximately 390 mt of materials containing rare earth elements and implicated PT Putraprima Mineral Mandiri, PT Sucofindo, and the Pangkalpinang Customs Office. It raised a broader regulatory question: when a mineral product contains rare earth or radioactive elements as associated elements, should the product continue to be treated under its primary export commodity classification or be subject to rare earth-related export restrictions. This issue quickly rippled through Indonesia’s broader mineral export chain. High-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products are not themselves exported as rare earth products, but they may contain trace amounts of associated rare earth elements or radioactive elements. Consequently, with regulatory parameters not yet fully clarified, surveyors and customs tended to be cautious, causing a slowdown in LS report issuance and customs clearance for some shipments. For the nickel industry, the incident quickly became a market focal point, as exports of high-grade NPI, NPI, and MHP were all affected by additional testing requirements. Market feedback indicated that some cargoes experienced short-term port detentions or shipment disruptions, and the impact was not confined to a single enterprise. Some traders also reported that related cargoes faced shipment difficulties during the period of disruption. Why Rare Earth Elements Matter: Indonesia Strengthens Value Controls Over Critical Minerals Before Export Rare earth elements have drawn attention due to their extensive application in high-value-added fields such as EVs, permanent magnet materials, electronic products, new energy, and national defense-related materials. For Indonesia, this issue is not only about export customs clearance but also about resource value control. The Indonesian government is placing increasing emphasis on identifying, regulating, and protecting the value of critical mineral resources before they leave the country. The problem is that rare earth elements often do not exist as standalone products but appear as associated or trace elements in other minerals. If all products containing small amounts of rare earth elements were treated as restricted rare earth exports, normal mineral exports could be disrupted; yet if rare earth content is not identified or regulated at all, Indonesia could lose control over the value of strategic minerals. The commonly recognized 17 rare earth elements include: lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, yttrium, and scandium . In recent market discussions, the testing scope mainly involved these 17 rare earth elements, while radioactive elements such as thorium and uranium also became items of inspection concern. Rare earth elements are often not produced as independent products but exist in other minerals in the form of associated elements . This also creates a regulatory gray area. If every export shipment containing trace rare earth elements were treated as rare earth exports, many normal mineral shipments could face delays. But if associated rare earth content is not tested at all, Indonesia risks the loss of strategic mineral value. Therefore, the market’s focus is not merely on whether nickel product exports are disrupted; the larger question is whether Indonesia is entering a new regulatory phase requiring more detailed chemical composition verification for mineral exports. What Happened in the Market: LS Report Delays and Additional Testing Disrupted Mineral Shipments According to SMM’s market understanding, the recent testing requirements temporarily affected the export of some processed mineral products from Indonesia. For nickel products, the impact was mainly reflected in three aspects. Delays in LS report issuance. LS reports are critical documents in the export process, and delays in their issuance directly affect customs clearance and cargo release. According to SMM’s understanding as of July 24, relevant authorities also noted that laboratory testing preparations remained relatively limited, and due to differing interpretations of how to handle rare earth elements during export verification, 102 LS survey reports were still pending. Short-term port detentions for some cargoes. Market feedback indicated that shipments of some NPI and MHP cargoes were affected, and some traders also mentioned that QMB-related cargoes faced shipment difficulties during the disruption. Export enterprises required to organize additional testing. The government required testing of 17 rare earth elements and radioactive elements in certain products, and some enterprises were still awaiting testing results or further clarity from surveyors and customs. Thus, this incident is not a direct export ban on nickel products but a short-term administrative and testing bottleneck arising from unclear regulatory parameters for associated rare earth and radioactive elements. Impact on the Nickel Market: NPI and Other Nickel Product Exports Mainly Affected by Shipment Pace Disruptions For the high-grade NPI and NPI market, the short-term impact was mainly on shipment pace rather than production. Some port cargoes experienced delays due to affected LS reports and customs clearance processes. According to SMM’s latest understanding, LS survey reports were being released in batches, and some high-grade NPI cargoes at ports had begun to be released progressively. As the current disruption primarily occurred in export documentation and customs clearance, the direct impact on NPI production was limited. If LS report issuance and customs clearance continue to normalize, the impact on the overall NPI market is expected to be limited. At this stage, the issue appears more as a short-term export process disruption rather than a confirmed structural restriction on NPI exports. For the MHP market, some cargoes were also affected by the rare earth-related testing requirements. According to market feedback, some MHP shipments faced short-term inability to ship smoothly during the disruption. Similar to NPI, the core issues centered on LS report issuance, testing requirements, and customs clearance, rather than direct restrictions on MHP production. The latest Indonesian government coordination outcome clarified that export procedures should refer to the primary mineral product and its derivative attributes, rather than automatically treating associated rare earth elements or radioactive elements in the product as grounds for export restrictions. Therefore, for MHP, the key lies in whether the product can continue to be classified and exported based on its primary product attributes. Market Feedback and Industry Concerns: Unclear Technical Standards Create Uncertainty for Export Enterprises Market feedback indicated that rare earth-related testing requirements had already caused real disruptions to Indonesia’s mineral product export chain. According to Arif Perdanakusumah, Chairman of FINI (Indonesian Nickel Smelting Association), at least 120 bulk commodity vessels were unable to sail or depart due to the need to test for rare earth content. He noted that this situation caused losses not only for enterprises but also for the government, primarily because there were still no clear regulations providing technical guidance on rare earth content thresholds. Industry associations generally understood that this policy was part of the government’s effort to improve mineral governance, but they also stressed that technical implementation still needed re-examination, particularly given that rare earth elements in many mineral products exist only as associated or trace elements rather than primary products. This distinction is especially important for commodities such as nickel, bauxite, tin, and copper, as enterprises' permits and processing designs are primarily centered on the main minerals, and rare earth elements may merely be naturally occurring by-products or associated elements. The bauxite industry also raised similar concerns. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of ABI (Indonesian Bauxite Association), stated that the rare earth issue should be addressed based on its technical nature and handled by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, as the ministry possesses the relevant mining and mineral expertise. He emphasized that the key question is whether rare earth elements are primary products or merely associated elements. If they are primary products, relevant export restrictions could apply; but if they are only associated elements, more detailed technical clarification is needed rather than causing widespread export disruptions. Sari Esayanti, Executive Director of IMA (Indonesian Mining Association), also pointed out that most mining enterprises still center on the primary commodities covered by their permits and existing processing designs. In multiple commodities such as tin, bauxite, nickel, and copper, rare earth elements are typically just associated elements. She also stated that most mining enterprises currently lack adequate facilities or technology to identify, separate, or economically utilize rare earth elements. Thus, new interpretations regarding rare earth element declarations or export obligations have created uncertainty for enterprises. From an industry perspective, the most urgent need currently is technical certainty. Enterprises require clearer parameters, testing methods, and declaration mechanisms so that all exporters, surveyors, and customs authorities can adopt uniform standards. Without consistent technical guidance, even if the current bottleneck gradually eases, similar shipment delays could still recur. Latest Government Developments and Resolution Direction: Primary Product Attributes Become the Core Clarification Point The most important development came from the Indonesian government’s coordination letter dated July 31, 2026. According to the document, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs convened a coordination meeting on July 30 to discuss export obstacles related to the presence of rare earth elements and/or radioactive elements in mineral products and their derivatives. Key points from the government coordination included: Exports of mineral products and their derivatives should still be conducted in accordance with existing trade regulations, including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023 on Export Policies and Arrangements and Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023 on Prohibited Export Goods, with reference to subsequent amendments. Relevant regulations should be understood as applying to primary mineral products and their derivatives, rather than automatically applying to associated elements within these products. This is the most critical clarification for high-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and other processed mineral products. If radioactive elements are present in the product, as long as they fall under naturally occurring radioactive material, i.e., NORM (Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material), exports can still proceed. This helps mitigate the risk of trace radioactive elements automatically causing export obstructions. Export enterprises, surveyors, and customs authorities should refer to the export attributes of the primary mineral product and its derivatives when handling exports. This provides a basis for the gradual resumption of LS report issuance and customs clearance. The Indonesian Attorney General’s Office will concurrently issue a legal opinion, to support the clarification of relevant regulatory interpretations. The government plans to accelerate the revision of relevant regulations, including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023, Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023, and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 25/2018. Relevant discussions are expected to commence on August 3, 2026, targeting completion of revisions within approximately one week. SMM View: Short-Term Export Disruption, but Medium and Long-Term Signal of Tighter Mineral Oversight Released SMM believes that this rare earth testing incident is a short-term disruption but also an important policy signal. In the short term, as LS reports are progressively issued and customs enforcement parameters become clearer, the impact on NPI and MHP exports is expected to gradually ease. If cargo clearance continues to normalize, the impact on the overall nickel market supply-demand pattern is expected to be limited. However, the incident also demonstrates that Indonesia is strengthening its oversight of critical mineral element content, export documentation, and resource value protection. Even if this round of disruption is resolved relatively quickly, export enterprises may still face stricter testing requirements, clearer declaration obligations, and tighter coordinated supervision among agencies such as surveyors, customs, ESDM, and the Ministry of Trade in the future. Subsequent market focus should include: whether all previously delayed LS reports can be fully released. whether future cargoes will need to undergo complete testing for rare earth elements and radioactive elements. whether the government will clarify specific thresholds for rare earth elements, thorium, uranium, and NORM classification. whether the revised regulations can clearly distinguish between primary export products and associated trace elements. whether high-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products will face different enforcement standards. Overall, this incident should not be interpreted as Indonesia directly banning NPI or MHP exports, but rather as a process of regulatory clarification under the backdrop of strengthened oversight of rare earth and radioactive elements. If the subsequent implementation details are clarified quickly, the market impact will largely remain at the short-term level; if rules remain unclear, similar shipment delays and administrative friction could still recur.

The National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ), in partnership with several private logistics enterprises, has transported the first 1,000 mt of lithium concentrates from the Gwanda Lithium Mine to Mozambique's Port of Maputo via rail, adding a new rail transport option for the country's lithium ore exports. The route spans nearly 1,000 km, comprising the Beitbridge–Bulawayo Railway (Gwanda–Beitbridge section, 180 km), the NRZ network to Chicualacuala (approx. 300 km), and Mozambique's Limpopo Corridor to Maputo (522 km). The opening of this corridor is significant. Previously, Zimbabwe's lithium ore exports had long relied on road transport, which not only incurred higher unit transportation costs but also faced issues such as road congestion, border delays, and capacity shortages. The completion of this rail corridor is expected to improve shipment stability and reduce inland transportation costs, particularly benefiting mines along the southwest–southeast transport corridor. In the short term, however, the boost to national export capacity is expected to remain limited. NRZ's freight volume has fallen from approximately 12 million mt in the 1990s to 2 million mt in 2025, reflecting chronic underinvestment and constrained operational capacity. This initial shipment should therefore be seen more as a logistics trial run rather than proof of large-scale rail capacity formation. SMM Insight For inland African lithium ore suppliers, logistics costs have historically been a major drag on cost competitiveness. The new rail option is a positive for Zimbabwe's landed cost competitiveness. If rail capacity utilization continues to improve, relevant mining enterprises could achieve lower and more stable FOB and CFR China landed costs compared with a road-only transport model. The corridor's long-term significance will depend on train frequency, loading capacity, border clearance efficiency, port handling capacity, and whether lithium sulfate products—driven by Zimbabwe's domestic downstream processing policies—can share the same transport corridor. Key points to watch: subsequent shipment volumes, rail freight rates, throughput capacity at the Port of Maputo, corridor operational stability, and adoption by major producers such as Bikita, Arcadia, and Sabi Star. Nyirongo Joseph SMM Zambia Office nyirongojoseph@smm.cn

On July 17, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) came in at -$146.15/dmt, down $13.31/dmt from the previous reading of -$132.84/dmt. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98%-99%. The copper concentrates spot market saw slightly more activity this week compared to the previous week. In spot transactions, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Las Bambas to a smelter at a deduction of $15-16/dmt from the average of the SMM and FM indices, for September loading; meanwhile, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Calcine at a premium of $5/dmt to the average of the SMM and FM indices; a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore and 10,000 mt of Bisha at a fixed price of -$140/mt to a smelter, for August-September loading; a trader sold 20,000 mt of clean ore at a fixed price of -$155/mt, for Q4 loading; additionally, a trader sold 20,000-30,000 mt of bundled ore at a deduction of $20/dmt from the index, for loading from Q4 2026 to Q1 2027; a mine sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at a fixed price of -$160/dmt, for September loading, QP: M+3. On the tender front, the previous Jabal tender result was out, with a deal concluded on the trader side at a fixed price of -$250/dmt for 40,000-50,000 mt, for H2 shipment; the result of the Newmonet tender for 20,000-30,000 mt of Red Christ is still pending; in addition, SMM learned that a large mine previously tendered 100,000 mt in physical content of copper concentrates, with bids from traders coming in at over -$200/dmt for 2026 shipment, -$200/dmt for 2027 shipment, and over -$100/dmt for 2028 shipment. Overall, the copper concentrates spot market continued its trend of probing lower this week, with spot TCs declining further from the prior period. Smelters still had rigid restocking demand, but as TCs continued to drop, copper smelting profits were further squeezed, making smelters more cautious about accepting low-priced cargoes and tilting purchases more toward rigid restocking. Meanwhile, mine tenders and trader offers kept edging lower, and the low-priced spot deals further shook smelters' psychological price levels, widening the divergence between buyers and sellers. In the short term, spot copper concentrate TCs still face downward pressure, with the market closely watching smelters' acceptance of deeply negative cargoes. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's copper concentrate imports in June 2026 were 2.335 million mt, down 1.10% MoM and edged up 0.03% YoY. From January to June 2026, cumulative imports of copper concentrates reached 14.609 million mt, edging down 0.9% YoY. Chile is currently being affected by a strong winter frontal system, with the main impact expected to be concentrated from July 16 to 17 and likely to persist through July 20–21. This weather event shows notable regional differences: moderate to heavy snowfall and strong winds are forecast for the high-altitude and mountainous areas of northern mining regions such as Antofagasta and Atacama, while central to southern Chile faces persistent heavy rainfall, raising the risk of localized flooding, landslides, and mudslides. The Chilean government has activated a preventive emergency response, and mining authorities have been communicating contingency plans with major mining enterprises. According to SMM’s communications with local industry participants, heavy snowfall and rainfall could cause short-term disruptions to road transport and port loading at some mine sites, with a risk of delays in the shipment pace of copper concentrates and copper cathode. The actual impact will depend on the duration of the weather and operating conditions at the major mines. On July 16, BHP released its production report, showing that group copper production in the fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30 was 491,900 mt, down 5% YoY and below the 516,200 mt recorded a year earlier, driven by lower output at the Escondida and Pampa Norte mines. For fiscal 2026, total group copper production was 1.95 million mt, down 3% YoY, a pullback from the 2.02 million mt in fiscal 2025 but the second consecutive year close to 2 million mt. Among them, Escondida—the world’s largest copper ore mine—produced 1.2612 million mt of copper on a 100% basis for the full year, down 3% YoY, mainly due to a decline in head grade at the beneficiation plant from 1.02% a year earlier to 0.90%. On July 17, SMM data on copper concentrates inventory at eleven ports showed 648,200 mt in physical content, down 42,000 mt from July 10. The main declines came from Fangchenggang Port and Qinzhou Port, down 30,000 mt and 21,000 mt WoW, respectively.

Chile is being affected by a strong winter frontal system, with the main impact expected to focus on July 16–17 and possibly persisting through July 20–21. This weather event shows pronounced regional differences. High-altitude and mountainous areas in northern mining regions such as Antofagasta and Atacama will experience moderate to heavy snowfall and strong winds, while central to southern Chile faces persistent heavy rainfall, with an increased risk of localized flooding, landslides, and mudslides. The Chilean government has activated preventive emergency responses, and mining authorities have also communicated contingency plans with major mining enterprises. According to SMM’s discussions with local industry insiders, the heavy snowfall and rainfall may cause short-term disruptions to road transportation and port loading in some mining areas, posing a risk of delays to the export pace of copper concentrates and copper cathode. The actual impact will still depend on the duration of the weather and the operational status of major mines.

[7.8 Morning Meeting Minutes] US President Trump stated on the Ukraine issue that he was in consultations with Russian President Putin to see if the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be ended. Trump said they had a "very good call." The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) edged higher early before pulling back to close the morning session at 126,290 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. July is within the submission window for Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB, and the final approval outcome will determine the supply-demand pattern for H2, making it the most critical uncertain variable at present. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums within the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.

[7.7 Morning Meeting Minutes] The central bank announced that on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, rate tender, and multiple-price auction method, with a term of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways during the morning session, closing the morning session at 126,920 yuan/mt, up 0.12%. Weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls prompted a more cautious market assessment of the employment outlook, expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled markedly, and the dollar's slump provided a catalyst for a rebound in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

Zimbabwe's Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube revealed during the World Economic Forum in Dalian that the country is actively considering using its abundant mineral resources as collateral through "resource‑linked debt instruments" to finance road and railway construction projects in cooperation with China. This model aims to leverage future revenue from natural resources as loan guarantees to address the huge funding gap for infrastructure development. Ncube said Zimbabwe has held preliminary discussions with China Railway Group regarding such financing arrangements. He told reporters: "We have discussed resource‑linked debt instruments and hope to use them in the future to support infrastructure development, particularly in the road and railway sectors." Under the envisaged plan, Zimbabwe would assess project costs, toll revenue potential, and the return cycle of required resource investments to determine the scale of resource collateral and the repayment path. As Africa's largest lithium producer, Zimbabwe possesses rich mineral resources, but years of economic mismanagement and political instability have left its infrastructure severely lagging. The African Development Bank estimates that the country needs approximately US$34 billion to modernise its transport and logistics network. The proposed resource‑for‑infrastructure plan resembles the model of the US$7 billion Sicomines copper‑cobalt joint venture in the Democratic Republic of Congo with Chinese companies. As early as September 2025, Zimbabwe's President, during a meeting in Beijing with senior executives of China Railway Group, promoted a railway rehabilitation cooperation plan totalling US$533 million. The project is to be implemented by Chuantie International, a subsidiary of China Railway Group with extensive experience in African projects. The scope of work includes repair and reinforcement of existing lines and bridges, modernisation of signal systems, procurement of 17 locomotives and 209 freight wagons, construction of five new stations, and the key trunk line connecting Beitbridge and Harare – a strategic corridor leading directly to South Africa, which is vital to Zimbabwe's foreign trade. Currently, the project's financing method and formal signing date are still under final negotiation. Zimbabwe's railway network was built during the colonial era and carried up to 12 million tonnes of freight annually in the 1990s. However, decades of underinvestment, equipment obsolescence, and foreign exchange shortages have caused the railway infrastructure to deteriorate continuously. Current annual freight volume has fallen to less than 3 million tonnes – only 15% of its historical peak. Many lines are overgrown with weeds, and a large number of locomotives and rolling stock have been taken out of service, directly weakening the capacity to transport bulk commodities such as lithium, chrome ore, and coal to the ports of Mozambique and South Africa. Consequently, Chinese mining enterprises operating in Zimbabwe – including Tsingshan Holding Group, Sinosteel Corporation, and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt – all face export bottlenecks for their products. The decline of the railway system has forced a large volume of freight onto roads, leading to a surge in heavy trucks, which in turn exacerbates road congestion, traffic accidents, and pavement damage, forming a vicious cycle. In response, the National Railways of Zimbabwe has incorporated this railway rehabilitation into a broader modernisation framework and has engaged in cooperation with 11 private enterprises. Among them, South Africa's Grindrod, through its subsidiary Beitbridge‑Bulawayo Railway Company, has already deployed three locomotives and 150 freight wagons to alleviate current transport pressures. At the same time, Zimbabwe is exploring collaboration with the University of Zimbabwe to leverage the university's innovation centre for localised railway technology R&D and talent training, building capacity for long‑term operations. Analysts point out that if this railway rehabilitation is successfully implemented, it will not only fully restore Zimbabwe's deteriorated railway network, but also provide critical logistics support for the country's US$12 billion mining target, while further deepening the strategic presence of Chinese enterprises in Zimbabwe's mining and infrastructure sectors. According to market dynamics, in recent years – and especially since the beginning of this year – lithium ore shipments from Zimbabwe have been persistently delayed at ports, with insufficient inland transport capacity being one of the main bottlenecks hindering smooth cargo arrivals. As the relevant logistics system upgrades are put into effect, this situation is expected to be significantly alleviated, and the transport efficiency of lithium materials will be notably improved, thereby injecting solid momentum into the stabilisation of global lithium supply. Sources: Mining.com , Azure Track Rail, and SMM