【SMM Steel】Japan's steel exports fell 6.7% y-o-y to 2.28 million tonnes in April, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline, mainly due to lower shipments to South Korea and Taiwan. Total exports in Jan-Apr 2026 reached 9.27 million tonnes, down 9.3% y-o-y. METI forecast crude steel output for April-June to decline 1% y-o-y to 60.9 million tonnes, citing weak demand from China and SE Asia and trade measures against Japan. Risks include Middle East oil supply disruptions, falling regional demand, and China rerouting exports to the Middle East.

Although recent conflicts in the Middle East have caused short-term volatility in gold prices, the medium- and long-term outlook remains positive as high geopolitical risks, increasing fiscal deficits, and continued buying by central banks will continue to support the price of the precious metal.

SMM News, April 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.6%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.24%, SHFE lead fell 0.18%, SHFE zinc fell 2.46%, SHFE tin fell 1.88%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.58%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.17%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.69%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.98%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the downtrend from the previous three trading days, falling 4.11%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 1.62%, rebar fell 0.88%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.97%, and stainless steel rose 1.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.3%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.52%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged up 0.02%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead fell 0.31%, and LME zinc fell 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.32%. LME nickel rose 0.65%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.1% and COMEX silver fell 0.45%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.89%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.65%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.27%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.95%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.47% to 2,208.1 points. As of 11:39 on April 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, down 765 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,215 yuan/mt, down 770 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly due to increased arrivals and decreased warehouse withdrawals... Macro front China: [SASAC: Continue to push efforts in key areas such as NEVs and artificial intelligence, driving emerging industries to develop with greater momentum] A signed article by the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council published in Study and Research stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, efforts must focus on opening up a "second curve" of growth, adopting tailored and coordinated policies for different enterprises, promoting smooth and strong succession of old and new growth drivers, accelerating the development of a batch of emerging pillar industries that lead future competition, and better supporting the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone. The article proposed coordinating the transformation of traditional industries with the development of emerging industries. On one hand, adhering to the direction of intelligentization, green development, and integration, deepening and expanding the "AI+" initiative, stepping up efforts in technological upgrading and equipment renewal, vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and further accelerating the transformation of traditional industries. On the other hand, following the approach of "leading a batch, catching up with a batch, and cultivating a batch," based on enterprise resource endowments and industrial foundations, adhering to differentiated layouts, further consolidating advantages in new energy, aerospace and other industries, continuing to push forward in key areas such as NEVs, artificial intelligence, and new materials, and proactively cultivating frontier tracks such as quantum information, nuclear fusion, and low-altitude economy, driving emerging industries to build stronger momentum. (Jin10 Data) [Guangdong: Increasing Support for Trade-in of Bulk Durable Consumer Goods Such as Automobiles and Home Appliances] The Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Guangdong Province was officially released. It mentioned the bulk consumption upgrade initiative. Promoting the "fiscal subsidies + enterprise discounts + financial empowerment" model, increasing support for trade-in of bulk durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, and continuing to implement consumption-boosting policies such as "Guangdong Premium Shopping." Implementing automobile replacement and retirement and renewal policies, encouraging eligible cities to issue subsidies for new car purchases. Expanding after-market consumption such as automobile modification and leasing. Accelerating the construction of recycling systems for automobiles, electronic products, home appliances and furniture. Actively, prudently, and orderly advancing urban village renovation under new models, expanding the supply of affordable housing, and better meeting housing consumption demand. The PBOC conducted 43.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%. 5 billion yuan in reverse repo operations matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.5. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated that recent US tariff policy adjustments could increase the federal budget deficit by $1.1 trillion over ten years, though the exact figure remained uncertain. CBO Director Swagel stated that the Supreme Court's ruling invalidating Trump's use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs on his own would increase the fiscal deficit by $2 trillion over ten years, while other trade measures Trump had taken to offset this loss totaled $800 billion to $900 billion (in revenue). Swagel stated: "Because the Supreme Court eliminated some tariffs and the government reimposed some, the fiscal deficit over ten years would be approximately $1.1 trillion higher."The government has significant power to impose new tariffs and adjust them, so it is difficult to determine the exact deficit amount before the entire process is concluded." Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said on April 27 local time that with persistent inflationary pressures coupled with an economic slowdown, policymakers must remain cautious. Dalio said on Monday, "We are undoubtedly in a period of stagflation," warning that the US economy had fallen into a stagflationary environment. He noted that if Kevin Warsh, who is about to take over as Fed Chairman, chose to cut interest rates, it would be a policy mistake. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.5%. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 11, the US February FHFA House Price Index MoM, the US February S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted Home Price Index YoY, the US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the US April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Bank of Japan target rate as of April 28. Also worth watching: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. On other currencies: [BOJ Kept Rates Unchanged as Expected, Three Members Advocated for a Rate Hike] The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, but three of the nine-member policy board proposed a rate hike, signaling concerns over inflationary pressures triggered by Middle East conflicts. The 6-to-3 vote also marked the largest split since Ueda Kazuo became governor. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the BOJ decided to keep the short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with broad market expectations. Board members Takada Hajime, Tamura Naoki, and Nakagawa Junko dissented, advocating for raising the rate to 1.0%. Nakagawa Junko argued that despite ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East situation, price risks were tilted to the upside under accommodative financial conditions given economic developments. Tamura Naoki argued that given price risks were significantly tilted to the upside, the BOJ should set the policy rate as close to the neutral rate as possible. Takada Hajime argued that Japan's price stability target had essentially been achieved, and price risks had clearly tilted to the upside due to second-round effects of price increases triggered by developments outside China. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo is expected to brief the media on the decision later. (Jin10 Data APP) Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, said that three votes in favor of a rate hike was somewhat surprising, and that policy board member Nakagawa Junko also switched to supporting a rate hike. In Japan, the impact of the Middle East shock has begun to show in consumer confidence, which is concerning in itself, and this impact is expected to further transmit to the price side. Meanwhile, the yen remains under depreciation pressure in financial markets. Overall, the Bank of Japan will have no choice but to maintain its rate-hike inclination. If easing of Middle East tensions can be confirmed, the bank is expected to raise rates further around June-July. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.02% and Brent up 0.8%. The US-Iran deadlock remained unresolved, and market sentiment was generally cautious. According to the Wall Street Journal, as the US Navy enforced a blockade and negotiations remained deadlocked, Iran was scrambling to find new oil storage methods to avoid devastating production shutdowns. As oil piled up domestically, Iran was reactivating abandoned sites known as "junk storage," using makeshift containers, and attempting to continue exports by rail. These unconventional measures aimed to delay an infrastructure crisis and undermine US leverage in the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Huatai Securities noted in a research report that, considering hindered transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and limited alternative routes, combined with potentially months-long production resumptions at shut-in Middle East oil fields and a round of strategic restocking of crude oil, refined products, and other energy and chemical products globally after the strait reopens, the medium-term oil price center is expected to stay high, maintaining the 2026 Brent crude oil average price forecast at $90/barrel. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…